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SIP Nordic – Råvaruguiden – januari 2013

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SIP Nordic - RåvaruguidenTiming viktigare än någonsin

Tiden går som vanligt alldeles för fort och det känns som igår jag skrev den första råvaruguiden (jan-12). Samtidigt som det är dags att summera ett ljummet råvaruår är det hög tid att rikta blickarna mot 2013 års spåkula. Fortsätter guldet mot ett positivt år för 14:e året i rad, fortsätter jordbruksråvarornas kräftgång och kommer vi att se olja klättra upp mot höga nivåer? Oavsett vad har vi ett spännande år framför oss där börserna under 2012 presterade bra trots oron för en Eurokris. 2013 blir spännande där mycket fokus kommer ligga kring USAs budgetstup och evigt växande budgetunderskott. Något som på alla vis kommer påverka råvarorna. Men var beredda på en tur i berg- och dalbanan. 2013 kan för råvaror bli mycket lik 2012 där timing är A och O.

Jag skrev i min första råvaruguide att jag inför 2012 trodde på platina och guld. Guld och platina ökade under 2013 med 5 respektive 9 %. En bra avkastning under rådande marknadsförhållanden men faktum är att man med rätt timing och aktiv börshandel hade kunna mångdubblat dessa siffror.

De flesta råvaror pendlade kraftigt under 2012 där vi såg en bred uppgång i början av året vilket snabbt byttes mot en negativ trend fram till slutet av sommaren. Då var det återigen dags för FED att sätta igång sedelpressarna vilket drev råvarupriserna uppåt igen. Guld var inget undantag. Faktum är att den aktive handlaren hade kunnat ha en avkastning på över 80 % om denna köpt och sålt guld vid rätt tillfälle.

Prisutveckling på guld under 2012

Nu är det ju alltid enkelt i efterhand att säga hur man borde ha gjort men jag tror faktiskt att vi får se ett liknande scenario under 2013.

Mycket av nyhetsflödet kommer i år att vara kring USAs budgetstup och det växande budgetunderskottet. Nu verkar det som att den kortsiktiga krisen är bortblåst. Något som får råvaror att rusa. Problemet kvarstår dock och om två månader måste frågorna kring USA budgetunderskott lösas. Något som hotar USAs kreditbetyg och som på många sätt kan påverka priset på råvaror. Framförallt guld, silver och olja.

2013 kommer således bli ett spännande råvaruår där bra avkastning finns att hämta. Det är dock viktigare än någonsin att ha rätt timing.

Personligen tror jag att guld kommer att fortsätta upp under 2013. USA kan mycket väl tvingas sätta igång fler stimulanspaket vilket är positivt för guldet. För den aktive med rätt timing kan guld bli en riktig vinnare under 2013.

Alexander Frick

Råvaror – Energi

Brent olja

  • Brentoljan åkte under 2012 berg och dalbana. Brent gick under 2012 upp dryga 2 %.
  • Under december månad ökade priset på brent med cirka 1,6 %.
  • Brent påverkades mycket av de ekonomiska oroligheterna under 2012. Något som mycket väl kan fortsätta under 2013. Stora svängningar är alltså att vänta.
  • Monetära stimulanser sätter dollarn under press vilket hjälper oljan att stanna på höga nivåer.

Prisutveckling på brent-olja under 2012

Prognoser på brent-olja för 2013

Naturgas

  • Från i mitten av april hade Naturgas en mycket stark period under 2012. Sedan botten i april klättrade priset på naturgas med nästan 80 % och avslutade året på cirka 10 % upp.
  • Under december föll priset på naturgas med 10 %
  • Efter den starka trenden är det inte osannolikt att naturgas börjar tappa i fart. Naturgas handlas nu strax under 50-dagars medelvärde.

Prisutveckling på naturgas under 2012

Prognoser för pris på naturgas under 2013

Råvaror – Metaller

Guld

  • Guld stängde på en positiv siffra 2012 vilket var det 13:e året i rad med positiv utveckling!
  • Guld pendlade likt olja kraftigt av samma anledningar. Ekonomiska oroligheter och stimulanspaket satte guldet i pendling.
  • Under 2012 ökade priset på guld med ca 5 %.
  • I december tappade guld dock nästan 4 %.
  • För den aktive börshandlaren finns stora pengar att tjäna då guldpriset med stor sannolikhet kommer att pendla en del under 2013.
  • Den amerikanska penningpolitiken styr till stor del det mesta.

Prisutveckling på guld under 2012

Prognoser på guldpriset för alla kvartal 2013

Silver

  • Silver hade även ett positivt år 2012. Än dock med kraftiga svängningar. För året var silver upp dryga 6 %.
  • December månad var dock lite mer mörk då silver föll nästan 12 %.
  • Silver handlas strax ovanför 200 dagars medelvärde men befinner sig i en kortsiktigt negativ trend.
  • Viktiga nivåer hittar vi kring 27 dollar där vi har en viktig motståndszon.

Utveckling för silverpriset under 2012

Prognoser på silverpriset för 2013, alla kvartal

Platina

  • Platina var inget undantag under 2012. Platina ökade med cirka 9 % under 2012.
  • Platina handlas dock till ett lägre pris än guld. Något som historiskt sett varit det motsatta.
  • Under december föll priset på platina med 4 %.
  • Platina befinner sig i en negativ trend där 50 dagars glidande medelvärde på 1650 blir intressant att observera under januari.

Prisutveckling på platina under 2013

Prognoser på platinapriset för 2013

Koppar

  • Metallerna svingade rejält under 2012 och koppar är inget undantag. Trots att koppar avslutade året på cirka 2,7 % upp är det ändå nästan 10 % under årets högstanivå.
  • Under december föll priset på koppar med 0,6 %
  • Koppar handlas just nu över både 50 och 200 dagars medelvärde men i en negativ trend. 50 dagars medelvärde korsade även 200 dagars medelvärde ovanifrån början av december.
  • Tillväxtländernas förbrukning kommer styra mycket under 2013.

Prisutveckling på koppar under 2013

Prognos på kopparpris för 2013, alla kvartal

Zink

  • Zink hade ett bra 2012. Upp drygt 12 %.
  • Under december månad ökade priset något.
  • Zink närmar sig nu viktiga nivåer kring 2100-2150 där vi har en rad motståndsnivåer. Blir intressant att följa under 2013.

Graf över zinkpriset under 2012

Prognoser på zinkpris under 2013

Nickel

  • Nickel presterade sämst av alla basmetaller under 2011. 2012 blev inte bättre. Slutsiffran blev -8 % för 2012.
  • Under december var priset på zink oförändrat.
  • Nickelmarknaden är fortsatt mättad med ökande lager.
  • Många stora projekt inom nickelproduktion är redan finansierade och irreversibla vilket kommer att öka tillgången av nickel ytterligare.

Prisutveckling på nickel under 2012

Prognoser på nickelpriset för 2013, alla kvartal

Råvaror – Jordbruk

Socker

  • Socker hade inget roligt 2012 med en slutsiffra på nästa -20 %.
  • Under december månad är dock socker upp drygt 2 %. Kanske vänder den negativa trenden här.
  • Socker föll under december igenom ett viktigt motståndsområde kring 19 cents. Nu har denna nivå brutits och det ser lite mer positivt ut.

Utveckling på sockerpriset under 2012Prognos på sockerpriset för 2013, alla kvartal

Bomull

  • Bomull och socker gick hand i hand under 2012. Bomullspriset föll med cirka 20 % under 2012.
  • Under december månad ökade priset på bomull dryga 4 %.
  • Svag kinesisk och indisk efterfrågan samt lägre ekonomisk tillväxt i Europa har lett till ökade lager. Monetära stimulanspaket kan ge en uppsving för konjunkturen och därmed öka bomullskonsumtionen.

Hur bomullspriset utvecklats under 2012

Prognos för priset på bomull år 2013, alla kvartal

Majs

  • Efter den kraftiga uppgången under sommaren 2012 föll priset på majs tillbaka men året avlutades på knappa 8 % upp.
  • Under sommaren rådde extrem torka i USA vilket fick priset på majs att skjuta i höjden. Endast 40 % av skörden var av god kvalitet. Att jämföra med 70 % i normala fall.
  • Under december månad föll priset på majs med 8 %.

Diagram över majspriset 2012

Prognos för priset på majs år 2013, alla kvartal

Vete

  • Då majsproduktionen drabbades av den värsta torkan på många år gick fler producenter över till produktion av vete vilket fick priset att skjuta i höjden under mitten av 2012. Likt majs föll vete tillbaka under andra halvan av året. Slutligen hamnade vete på +6 % för året.
  • Under december föll vete med drygt 8 %.

Prisutveckling på vete under 2012

Prisutveckling på vete under 2012 Prognos på vetepris år 2013, alla kvartal

Apelsinjuice

  • Den som låg kort apelsinjuice under 2012 har gjort en mycket bra affär. För året föll apelsinjuice drygt 28 %.
  • Under december föll apelsinjuice med ytterligare 6 %.
  • Priset på apelsinjuice är fortfarande 70 % högre än botten 2009. Fallhöjden är således hög. Mycket hög.

Prisutveckling år 2012 för FCOJ (apelsinjuice)

Kaffe

  • För första gången är kaffe med i Råvaruguiden. Kaffe hade likt de andra jordbruksmetallerna ett svagt 2012. För året tappade kaffe 35 %.
  • Kaffe gick under december upp 3,6 % vilket kan vara början på ett trendbrott.
  • Om kaffe lyckas bryta upp över 50 dagars glidande medelvärde kan vi få ett trendskifte.
  • Kaffe ligger dock fortfarande i en långsiktigt nedåtgående trend.

Prisutveckling på kaffe under 2012Prognos på kaffepriset kvartal för kvartal 2013

[box]Denna uppdatering är producerat av SIP Nordic och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]

Ansvarsbegränsning

Detta produktblad utgör endast marknadsföring och har sammanställts av SIP Nordic Fondkommission AB.

Innehållet ger inte fullständig information avseende det finansiella instrumentet. Investerare uppmanas att del av prospekt och slutliga villkor, vilka finns tillgängliga på: www.rbsbank.se/markets, innan ett investeringsbeslut tas.

Förekommande exempel är simulerade och baseras på SIP Nordics egna beräkningar och antaganden, en person som använder andra data eller antaganden kan nå andra resultat. Administrativa avgifter och transaktionsavgifter påverkar den faktiska avkastningen.

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Analys

How renewable fuels are accelerating the decarbonisation of transport

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WisdomTree

On 16 November 2022, UK’s Royal Air Force (RAF) Voyager aircraft, the military variant of the Airbus A330, took to the skies for 90 minutes over Oxfordshire. What looked like a routine test flight in its outward appearance was ultimately deemed ground-breaking. Why? It was a world-first military transporter aircraft flight, and the first of any aircraft type in the UK to be completed using 100% sustainable jet fuel.  

Mobeen Tahir, Director, Macroeconomic Research & Tactical Solutions, WisdomTree
Mobeen Tahir, Director, Macroeconomic Research & Tactical Solutions, WisdomTree

What are renewable fuels?

Renewable hydrocarbon biofuels (also called green or drop-in biofuels) are fuels produced from biomass sources through a variety of biological, thermal, and chemical processes. These products are chemically identical to petroleum gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel.

In other words, renewable fuels are sources of energy chemically identical to fossil fuels but produced from domestic, commercial, or agricultural waste (see Figure 1 below).

Figure 1: Converting waste into energy

Waste types and refinery output

Why the excitement?

Renewable fuels, like renewable diesel and sustainable jet fuel, can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by around 80-90% compared to fossil fuels. And because they burn much cleaner, engine filters remain cleaner for longer reducing the need for maintenance. Furthermore, given used cooking oil, vegetable oil, processing waste, and animal fat waste are used as inputs, the production of these fuels reduces biowaste, thereby cutting emissions from landfills.

This makes renewable fuels a key component of the circular economy. Humans have largely operated on the linear model historically when it comes to utilising natural resources. The circular model, in contrast, is much less wasteful and seeks to recycle as much as possible (see Figure 2 below).

Figure 2: The Circular Economy

Circular economy
Source: WisdomTree, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2023

The most exciting thing about renewable fuels is the immediacy with which they can make an impact. The reason why they are referred to as drop-in fuels is that they can replace fossil fuels in internal combustion engines with little or no modification required. So, if supply was abundant enough, forms of transport which cannot be electrified easily like heavy duty trucks, ships, and aeroplanes can be switched across to renewable fuels making a significant improvement to the environmental footprint. According to BP, “A return flight between London and San Francisco has a carbon footprint per economy ticket of nearly 1 tonne of CO2 equivalent. With the aviation industry expected to double to over 8 billion passengers by 2050, it is essential that we act to reduce aviation’s carbon emissions.”

The challenge

Renewable fuels or biofuels are still in their infancy. This means the obvious hurdle to overcome is cost competitiveness with fossil fuels. Cost estimates vary, but figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) provide a useful sense for the ballpark. In May 2022, IATA stated that the average worldwide price of jet fuel is about $4.15 per gallon compared to the US average price of a gallon of sustainable aviation fuel, which is about $8.67.

So, roughly double the price of the incumbent polluting technology. This is not a bad starting point at all. Considering how rapidly the cost of energy storage in batteries has fallen in the last decade, renewable fuels could become competitive quite soon if sufficient investment is made and economies of scale are achieved. IATA also predicts that renewable fuels could make up 2% of all aviation fuels by 2025, which could become a tipping point in their competitiveness.

Businesses are acting

Businesses pursuing their own net zero targets have already started exploring renewable fuels to minimise their waste. Darling Ingredients Inc, which produces its trademark Diamond Green Diesel from recycled animal fats, inedible corn oil, and used cooking oil, was chosen by fast food chain Chick-fil-A in March 2022 to turn its used cooking oil into clean transportation fuel.

Similarly, McDonald’s entered into a partnership with Neste Corporation in 2020 to convert its used vegetable oil into renewable diesel and fuel the trucks that make deliveries to its restaurants. According to TortoiseEcofin, both Darling Ingredients and Neste have a net negative carbon footprint given emissions produced by these businesses are lower that the emissions avoided because of their renewable fuels.

A final word

Renewable fuels alone will not tackle climate change. No single solution can. But they can help us make meaningful progress. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasises how crucial it is for the world to halve its greenhouse gas emissions this decade to at least have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5oC. This means that solutions with an immediate effect have an important role to play. Biofuels can cut emissions from waste in landfills and provide much cleaner alternatives to fossil fuels to help accelerate the world’s decarbonisation efforts. They don’t require different engines to be of use. They just need funding to reach scale.

Mobeen Tahir, Director, Macroeconomic Research & Tactical Solutions, WisdomTree

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Analys

SEB Metals Weekly: China Covid exit is bullish for metals

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

China Covid exit is bullish for metals

Softer inflation, slight macro-optimism, and China taking a rapid exit from Covid restrictions. Markets have become more optimistic. Inflation indices have eased and that has created some hopes that central banks won’t lift interest to a level that will kill the economy in 2023. Natural gas prices in Europe have fallen sharply. This has suddenly reduced energy-inflationary pressure and removed the direst downside economic risks for the region. But general market optimism is far from super-strong yet. The S&P 500 index has only gained 1.9% since our previous forecast on 1 Nov 2021, and oil prices are down nearly 10% in a reflection of concerns for global growth. China has however removed all Covid-restrictions almost overnight. It is now set to move out of its three years of Covid-19 isolation and lockdowns at record speed. Industrial metals are up 20% and the Hong Kong equity index is up 40% as a result (since 1 Nov-22). China’s sudden and rapid Covid-19 exit is plain and simply bullish for the Chinese economy to the point that mobility indices are already rebounding quickly. SEB’s general view is that inflation impulses will fade quickly. No need then for central banks across the world to kill the global economy with further extreme rate hikes. These developments have removed much of the downside price risks for metals in 2023 and we have to a large degree shifted our 2024 forecast to 2023.

Lower transparency, more geopolitics, more borders, and higher prices and exponential spikes. The first decade of this century was about emerging markets, the BRICs, the commodity price boom, the commodity investment boom, and free markets with free flow of commodities and labor with China and Russia hand in hand with western countries walking towards the future. High capex spending in the first decade led to plentiful supply and low prices for commodities from 2011 to 2020. A world of plenty, friends everywhere, free flow of everything, and no need to worry. The coming decade will likely be very different. Supply growth will struggle due to mediocre capex spending over the past 10 years. Prices will on average be significantly higher. There will be frequent exponential price spikes whenever demand hits supply barriers. Price transparency will be significantly reduced due to borders, taxes, sanctions, geopolitical alignments, and carbon intensities. Prices will be much less homogenous. Aluminium will no longer be just one price and one quality. Who made it, where was it made, where will it be consumed and what the carbon content will create a range of prices. Same for most other metals.

Copper: Struggling supply and China revival propel copper prices higher. Unrest in Peru is creating significant supply risks for copper as the country accounts for 10% of the global supply. Chile accounts for 27% of global production. Production there is disappointing with Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper mining company, struggling to hit production targets. The Cobre Panama mine in Panama is at risk of being closed over a tax dispute between Quantum and the government. Cobre Panama is one of the biggest new mines globally over the past 10 years. The rapid exit from Covid restrictions in China is bullish for the Chinese economy and thus for copper demand and it has helped to propel prices higher along with the mentioned supply issues. The Chinese property market will continue to struggle, and it normally accounts for 20% of global copper demand while China accounted for 55% of global copper demand in 2021. While China is no longer prioritizing the housing market it is full speed ahead for solar, wind, EVs, and electrification in general. So, weakening Chinese copper demand from housing will likely be replaced by the new prioritized growth sectors. Global supply growth is likely going to be muted in the decade to come while demand growth will be somewhere between a normal 3% pa. to a strong 4% pa. to a very strong 5% pa. Copper prices will be high, and demand will hit the supply barrier repeatedly with exponential spikes as the world is working hard to accelerate the energy transition. Copper prices could easily spike to USD 15-16,000/ton nearest years.

Nickel: Tight high-quality nickel market but a surplus for a low-quality nickel. Nickel production is growing aggressively in Indonesia. The country is projected to account for 60-70% of global supply in 2030. This will become a huge and extremely concentrated geopolitical risk for the world’s consumers of nickel. Indonesia has an abundance of low-grade C2 nickel. The challenge is to convert low-quality C2 nickel to high-quality C1. We are set for a surplus of C2 nickel but the market for C1 nickel will depend strongly on the conversion capacity for C2 to C1. Low price transparency will also help to send prices flying between USD 20,000/ton and USD 30,000/ton. Strong growth in nickel production in Indonesia should initially call for prices down to USD 20,000/ton. But Indonesia is a price setter. It will account for 50% of global supply in 2023. It doesn’t make sense for Indonesia to kill the nickel price. If the nickel price drops, then Indonesia could quickly regulate supply. There should be a premium to nickel due to this. As a result, we expect the nickel price to average USD 24,000/ton in 2023. C2 to C1 conversion capacity may be strained and there should also be a monopoly premium due to the size of Indonesia. Converting C2 to C1 is however extremely carbon intensive and that could be an increasing issue in the years to come.

Zinc: Super-tight global market. European LME inventories are ZERO and zinc smelters there are still closed. European zinc smelters account for 16% of global zinc smelter capacity. Most of this was closed over the past year due to extremely high energy prices. European LME zinc stockpiles are now down to a stunning zero! The global zinc market is extremely tight. Reopening of European zinc smelting seems unlikely in H1-23 with a continued super-tight market as a result both in Europe and globally.

Aluminium: Price likely to be in the range of USD 2400 – 3200/ton and line with coal prices in China. Aluminium prices have historically been tightly tied to the price of coal. But coal prices have been all over the place since the start of 2021 with huge price differences between Amsterdam, Australia, and domestic Chinese coal prices which are now largely state-controlled. China banning imports of Australian coal, the Chinese energy crisis in 2021, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are ingredients here. This sent aluminium prices flying high and low. Coal prices in China today imply a price of aluminium between USD 2400/ton and 3150/ton with the LME 3mth aluminium price nicely in between at USD 2590/ton. The global coal market should now become more orderly as China now again is accepting Australian coal. Energy costs have fallen sharply in Europe and some producers in the Netherlands have talked about possible restarts of production. China is likely to reduce its exports of primary aluminium. Energy security of supply is high on the agenda in China, and it makes no sense to emit lots of CO2 in China and indirectly export energy in the form of primary aluminium. Growth in non-China aluminium demand in the years to come will have to be covered by non-China producers which have the potential to force prices higher and away from coal as the price driver. While LME has one price for the 3mth aluminium price we’ll likely get larger and larger price differences across the world in the form of possibly extreme price premiums for example in the EU and the US.

SEB Commodities price outlook
Source: SEB Markets – Commodities. Historical data: Bloomberg 
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Analys

Solid demand growth and strained supply to push Brent above USD 100/b

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Brent crude had a strong end of the year as it traded at the highest level since 1 December. It is a slow start to the new year due to bank holidays and Dated Brent trades close to USD 85/b. It averaged USD 99.9/b in 2022. We expect it to average more than USD 100/b on average for the coming year amid strained supply and rebounding demand. Chinese oil demand is set to recover strongly along with re-openings while non-OECD will continue to move higher. At the moment oil looks absurdly cheap as it is cheaper than natural gas in both EU and Japan and also cheaper than coal in Australia.

Some price strength at the end of the year. The Dated Brent crude oil price index gained 2.3% on Friday with a close at USD 84.97/b. It was the highest close since 1 December. This morning it is trading slightly lower at USD 84.8/b but the market is basically void of action due to bank holidays.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Gloom and doom but IEA, OPEC and US EIA project global crude oil demand to rise between 1 m b/d and 2.2 m b/d YoY in 2023. They also expect call-on-OPEC to rise between 0.3 m b/d and 1.0 m b/d. The US EIA projects demand to increase 1 m b/d in 2023 on the back of a growth of 1.3 m b/d in non-OECD where demand in India rises by 0.2 m b/d and China by 0.6 m b/d. In China this is of course to a large degree due to re-opening after Covid-19 lock-downs. But it is still a good reminder of the low base of oil demand in non-OECD versus OECD. India last year consumed 5 m b/d which only amounts to 1.3 b/capita/year versus a world average of 4.5  b/capita/year and European demand of 10 b/capita/year. Even China is still below the world average as its demand in 2022 stood at 15.2 m b/d or 4.0 b/capita/yr. Non-OECD oil demand thus still has a long way to go in terms of oil demand and that is probably one of the things we’ll be reminded of in 2023 as Covid-19 lock-downs disappear entirely.

Solid demand growth in the face of strained supply. Important to remember is that the world has lost a huge amount of fossil supply from Russia due to the war in Ukraine. First in terms of natural gas where supply to the EU and thus to the world has declined by some 2.5 m boe/d versus pre-war levels. Secondly in terms of crude and products. The latter is of course a constant guessing game in terms of how much Russian crude and product exports has declined. The US EIA however projects that crude oil production in the Former Soviet Union will be down 2 m b/d in 2023 versus pre-Covid levels and down 1.3 m b/d YoY from 2022 to 2023. We are thus talking up to 4.5 m boe/d of lost supply from Russia/FSU. That is a huge loss. It is the reason why coal prices are still trading at USD 200 – 400/ton versus normal USD 85/ton as coal is an alternative to very expensive natural gas.

Overall for 2023 we are looking at a market where we’ll have huge losses in supply of fossil energy supply from Russia while demand for oil is set to rebound solidly (+1.0 – 2.2 m b/d) along with steady demand growth in non-OECD plus a jump in demand from China due to Covid-19 reopening. Need for oil from OPEC is set to rise by up to 1.0 m b/d YoY while the group’s spare capacity is close to exhausted.

We expect Brent crude to average more than USD 100/b in 2023. Despite all the macro economic gloom and doom due to inflation and rising interest rates we cannot help having a positive view for crude oil prices for the year to come due to the above reasons. The Dated Brent crude oil price index averaged USD 99.9/b in 2022. We think Brent crude will average more than USD 100/b in 2023. Oil is today absurdly cheap at USD 85/b. It is cheaper than both coal in Australia and natural gas both in Japan and the EU. This is something you hardly ever see. The energy market will work hard to consume more what is cheap (oil) and less of what is expensive (nat gas and coal).

Latest forecasts by IEA, OPEC and US EIA for oil demand growth and call-on-OPEC YoY for 2023. Solid demand growth and rising need for oil from OPEC. 

Latest forecasts by IEA, OPEC and US EIA for oil demand growth and call-on-OPEC YoY for 2023.
Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC, SEB graph

Oil demand projections from the main agencies and estimated call-on-OPEC. More demand and higher need for oil from OPEC

Oil demand projections
Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC, SEB table

EIA STEO projected change in oil demand for different countries and regions YoY to 2023

EIA STEO projected change in oil demand for different countries and regions YoY to 2023
Source: US EIA, SEB graph

US EIA Dec STEO forecast for FSU oil production. Solid decline projected for 2023.

US EIA Dec STEO forecast for FSU oil production. Solid decline projected for 2023.
Source: US EIA data and projection. SEB graph

US commercial crude and product stocks still below normal

US commercial crude and product stocks still below normal
Source: US EIA, SEB graph

Total US crude and product stocks including SPR. Declining, declining, declining.

Total US crude and product stocks including SPR. Declining, declining, declining.
Source: US EIA, SEB graph

US crude and product inventories both excluding and including Strategic Petroleum Reserves

US crude and product inventories both excluding and including Strategic Petroleum Reserves

US oil sales from US SPR is now coming to an end. Will make the market feel much tighter as it really is.

US oil sales from US SPR is now coming to an end. Will make the market feel much tighter as it really is.
Source: US EIA, SEB graph

Brent crude oil is absurdly cheap as it today trades below both Australian coal and natural gas in both Japan and the EU. Coal and natural gas prices should trade lower while oil should trade higher.

Source: Blbrg data, SEB graph

EU diesel prices versus natural gas prices. Could start to move towards a more natural price-balance in terms of substitution.

EU diesel prices versus natural gas prices. Could start to move towards a more natural price-balance in terms of substitution.
Source: Blbrg data, SEB graph and calculations
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