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SHB Råvarubrevet 30 augusti 2013

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Handelsbanken - Råvarubrevet - Nyhetsbrev om råvaror

Handelsbanken - Råvarubrevet inklusive ädelmetallerRåvaror allmänt

Allt fokus på Syrien

USA tillsammans med Storbritannien och Frankrike laddar upp för någon slags militär intervention i syfte att straffa den syriska regimen för påstådda krigsförbrytelser, kanske i syfte att skicka en signal till andra länder att kemisk krigföring inte är acceptabelt. Detta har gett olja och guldpriset rejäl skjuts och bidragit till ökad volatilitet och sänkt riskaptit generellt på finansmarknaderna. Än så länge är det dock för tidigt att tala om några större negativa ekonomiska effekter från vad som hänt. Vad som händer framöver avgörs av vilka insatser som görs samt vilken respons det får, inte bara från Syriens regering utan även i omkringliggande länder och på ”den arabiska gatan”. Iraks oljeproduktion är den största riskfaktorn just nu. Den Sunni vs Shiite konflikt som råder i Syrien är direkt översättningsbar till Irak. Riskpremien i olja är därför motiverad då Irak, till skillnad från Syrien har en betydande oljeproduktion som Saudi inte kan täcka upp för.

Vårt positiva konjunkturscenario har getts stöd av den senaste statistiken, trots att amerikansk bostadsmarknadsdata på sistone överraskat något negativt. Risken för vissa ekonomiska bakslag senare i höst får sägas vara stigande givet att turbulensen i emerging markets i dagens marknad inte på något sätt tänks påverka varken Europa eller USA.

Handelsbanken 30 augusti 2013

Basmetaller

I väntan på PMI från Kina

Basmetallerna har fallit något under veckan på den generella risk off rörelsen i bakvattnet av krigsrisken i Mellanöstern och som får industriella råvaror att backa medans klassiska krisindikator som guld och olja stiger. Vårt basmetallindex faller med 1,3 % där nickel återigen tar den största smällen, ner 4 %. Handelsdata, råvaruimport och flash PMI pekar all i rätt riktning för att Kinas makrodata ska kunna bli en otippad positiv överraskning under september.

På söndag publiceras Kinas PMI (det statliga) för augusti där förväntat 50,2 mot 50,3 i juli. HSBC:s PMI publiceras därefter på måndag där förväntat ligger på 50,2 mot 47,7 i juli. Vi räknar med positiv överraskning för dessa båda data vilket kommer driva basmetaller uppåt. Vi behåller vår positiva vy för basmetaller.

Kinas PMI och nickelpriset

Nickel är den basmetall som gått ner mest under året och med många gruvor som går med förlust på dagens prisnivåer tror vi på stigande priser. Vi tror på: LONG NICKEL H

Ädelmetaller

Guld, fortsatt starkt, men platina ännu starkare

Guldet ligger i skrivande stund på samma nivå som förra veckan, 1395 dollar per uns. Förra veckan var det dock veckohögsta, denna veckan är det veckolägsta. Vi har varit uppe på 1430 dollar, drivet av John Kerrys uppskruvade retorik mot Syrien, men inga fundamentala nyheter har påverkat priset denna veckan. Vi tycker fortfarande att prisutvecklingen ser konstruktiv ut, och ligger kvar i vår positiva syn på guldet. Vi har haft 1450 som target i denna prisrörelse, och når vi dit så får vi ta en funderare på nästa steg.

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I väntan på detta vill vi slå ett slag för en annan ädelmetall – platina – som inte bara får avsevärt mindre uppmärksamhet än guldet, utan också är något ”smartare” i betydelsen att den har en industriell nytta. Platina har faktiskt utpresterat guldet inte bara under guldets fall under våren, utan även under återhämtningen sedan halvårsskiftet. Vi har en positiv syn på hela ädelmetallsektorn, mest drivet av guldet, men kommer att titta lite närmare på platina framöver. Watch this space!

Guldpris och silverpris enligt terminer på Comex

I ett läge där råvaror generellt har viktats ned av institutionella placerare kan guld och silver få en ”omotiverad” uppgång när dessa indexköpare återvänder till råvaror drivit av bättre utsikter för Kina och USA. Vi tror på: LONG GULD H och LONG SILVER H

Energi

Syrien pressar upp oljepriset

Brentoljan handlades upp på högsta nivån (USD 116.61) sedan februari efter oro kring ytterligare utbudsstörningar i Mellanöstern om västvärlden skulle intervenera i Syrien. Detta utöver rådande MENA oro och produktionsbortfall om ca 2.8 miljoner fat per dag under augusti främst från Iran och Libyen men även från Syrien, Sudan och Irak. Trenden förstärks ytterligare av globala tillväxtförväntningar. Ett ökat intresse för olja som aktiehedge skapar också momentum där marknaden blivit betydligt längre. Saudiarabien producerar närmare 10.5 miljoner fat per dag, den högsta nivån någonsin, vilket resulterar i en global reservkapacitet om endast 1.3 miljoner fat per dag vs USA:s skifferproduktion om 2.5 miljoner fat per dag. De globala utbudsstörningarna har ökat 3 miljoner fat per dag sedan december 2009 att jämföra med tillväxten i USA:s skifferproduktion om 2 miljoner fat per dag under samma period. Med kraftiga utbudsstörningar och låg reservkapacitet kan oljepriset med andra ord skjuta ordentligt i höjden vid en eventuell intervention i Syrien. Oavsett om det sker eller inte räknar vi med ett fortsatt högt oljepris med klar potential på uppsidan. Mer om utvecklingen på oljemarknaden.

Elmarknaden och kvartalet Q413 backar med strax över en procent efter att väderprognoserna tappat den torra avslutning som låg mot slutet av förra veckan. Nederbörden ser ut att gå mer mot normala nivåer vilket skulle innebära ett underskott kring ca 8-9 TWh efter vecka 36. Då gas får stöd av oljemarknaden samtidigt som utsläppsrätterna och kolet handlar oförändrat. Även om kolsentimentet försvagats något ytterligare i fronten, förväntar vi oss att elmarknaden handlar kvar i den range vi fastnat i med risken på uppsidan om vädret slår om mot det torrare slaget igen.

Oktober 2013-terminen för brent-olja

Oroligheterna i mellanöstern med risk för ytterligare produktionsbortfall ger stöd till oljepriset. Vi tror på: LONG OLJA

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Livsmedel

Vädret i fokus

Vädret fortsätter att styra prisutvecklingen för vete, majs och sojabönor. Vete och majs steg i början av veckan men efter att regn (dock inga stora mängder) fallit över viktiga regioner i USA handlas grödorna nu på samma nivåer som måndagens öppning. Priset på sojabönor har rört sig sidledes under veckan och stänger något lägre (-1,4 %). Vi fortsätter att hålla neutral vy för denna sektor och konstaterar att väderprognoserna kommer stå i fokus ett tag framöver.

Det är fortfarande torrt vid Elfenbenskusten varför priset på kakao gått sidledes de senaste tre veckorna. Det var i början av augusti som priset på kakao steg 7 procent efter uteblivet regn. Västafrika står för 70 procent av den globala kakaoproduktionen och risken på uppsidan ökar i takt med fortsatt torka i dessa regioner. Kaffepriset fortsätter att backa och i skrivande stund handlas decemberkontraktet på 1,17 dollar/Ib. Årets skörd har hittills inte visat på några större överraskningar och det rapporteras om goda lager. Fler och fler odlare håller på sitt kaffe som följd av de låga kaffepriserna och hoppas på stigande priser.

Handelsbankens livsmedelsindex

Handelsbankens Råvaruindex

Handelsbankens råvaruindex 30 augusti 2013

Handelsbankens råvaruindex består av de underliggande indexen för respektive råvara. Vikterna är bestämda till hälften från värdet av nordisk produktion (globala produktionen för sektorindex) och till hälften från likviditeten i terminskontrakten.

[box]SHB Råvarubrevet är producerat av Handelsbanken och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]

Ansvarsbegränsning

Detta material är producerat av Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) i fortsättningen kallad Handelsbanken. De som arbetar med innehållet är inte analytiker och materialet är inte oberoende investeringsanalys. Innehållet är uteslutande avsett för kunder i Sverige. Syftet är att ge en allmän information till Handelsbankens kunder och utgör inte ett personligt investeringsråd eller en personlig rekommendation. Informationen ska inte ensamt utgöra underlag för investeringsbeslut. Kunder bör inhämta råd från sina rådgivare och basera sina investeringsbeslut utifrån egen erfarenhet.

Informationen i materialet kan ändras och också avvika från de åsikter som uttrycks i oberoende investeringsanalyser från Handelsbanken. Informationen grundar sig på allmänt tillgänglig information och är hämtad från källor som bedöms som tillförlitliga, men riktigheten kan inte garanteras och informationen kan vara ofullständig eller nedkortad. Ingen del av förslaget får reproduceras eller distribueras till någon annan person utan att Handelsbanken dessförinnan lämnat sitt skriftliga medgivande. Handelsbanken ansvarar inte för att materialet används på ett sätt som strider mot förbudet mot vidarebefordran eller offentliggörs i strid med bankens regler.

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Analys

Metals price forecast: Lower Before Higher

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Lower before higher

SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

The world is slowing down along with fiscal and monetary tightening. The rapid rise in interest rates this year will work with a lag so the slowdown in the real economy is likely to continue. We expect metals prices to ease along with that. The continued deterioration in the Chinese property market is likely structural with growth shifting towards higher value sectors including green energy and EVs. Chinese credit expansion has started. Stronger demand for metals like copper, nickel and aluminium is likely to emerge in H2-23. Strong prices for metals over the coming decade due to sub-par capex spending over the past decade is likely.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Weakening macro and weakening demand. The world is now in the grip of a tightening craze amid inflation panic which was the result of the stimulus boom ignited by Covid-19 panic. The US expanded its M2 monetary base by 30% of GDP during the stimulus boom. Donald Trump earlier clamped down on immigration from Mexico/Latin America. Rampant consumer spending on capital goods together with an ultra-tight labor market then led to intense inflation pressure in the US. But also, in many other countries which also stimulated too much. The US is ahead of the curve with respect to interest rate hikes. The USD has rallied, forcing many central banks around the world to lift rates to defend their currencies as well as fighting their own inflationary pressures. The Japanese central bank has refrained from doing so and has instead intervened in the yen currency market for the first time since 1998. The year 2022 will likely be the worst selloff in global government bonds since 1949 as interest rates rise rapidly from very low levels. This is taking place following a decade where the world has been gorging on ultra-cheap debt. There is clearly a risk that something will break apart somewhere in the financial system as the world gallops through this extreme roller coaster ride of stimulus and tightening. On top of this we have and energy crisis in Europe where natural gas prices for year 2023 currently is priced at 700% of normal levels. War in Ukraine, risk for the use of nuclear weapons, an enduring cool-down of the Chinese property market and continued lock-downs in China due to Covid-19 is adding plenty of uncertain elements.

Downside price risks for metals over the coming 6-9 months. The significant rise in rates around the world will work with a lag. There can be up to a 12-month lag from rates starts to rise to when they take real effect. Continued economic cool-down in the economy is thus likely. Chinese politicians seem unlikely to run yet another round of property market-based stimulus. As such there are clearly downside risks to global economic growth and industrial metals prices over the coming 6 months.

China may be a “White Swan Event” in H2-23 onward. LME’s China seminar in London on Monday 24 October this year was very interesting. The brightest spot in our view was Jinny Yang, the Chief China economist at ICBC Standard Bank. She stated that China may turn out to be a “white swan event” in H2-2023. Further that the Chinese economy now is on a decade long type of transition period. Away from property focused growth. With a shift instead to technology and innovation, telecoms and energy transition, consumer demand side economy and higher value and more advanced sectors. The property market will be a fading sector with respect to growth. Chinese politicians are fully committed to the energy transition. No slowdown in there. Credit expansion has already started. The real effect of that will emerge in H2-23. The new growth focus will be different from before. But it will still imply lots of metals like aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc, cobalt, manganese, and other special metals. There will be less copper for pipes and wiring for housing but there will be more copper for EVs, Solar power, Wind power and power networks etc.

Copper: Struggling supply from Chile, rising supply from Africa while Russian exports keeps flowing to market. The Chinese housing market normally accounts for 20% of global copper demand. So, slowing Chinese housing market is bad for copper. Russian exports keep flowing to SE Asia where it is re-exported. Good supply growth is expected from Africa in 2023. Supply from Chile is struggling with falling ore grades, political headwinds, and mining strikes. Demand is projected to boom over the coming decades while investments in new mines have been sub-par over the past decade. So strong prices in the medium to longer term. But in the short-term the negative demand forces will likely have the upper hand.

Nickel: Tight high-quality nickel market but surplus for low-quality nickel. There is currently a plentiful supply of low-grade nickel with weak stainless-steel demand and strong demand for high quality nickel for EV batteries. The result is a current USD 5-6000/ton price premium for high-quality vs. low-quality nickel. High-quality LME grade nickel now only accounts for 25% of the global nickel market. Over the coming decade there will be strong demand growth for high-quality nickel for EV batteries, but high-quality NiSO4 will take center stage. The price of high-quality nickel over the coming decade will depend on how quickly the world can ramp up low-grade to high-grade conversion capacity.

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Aluminium: Russian production and exports keeps flowing at normal pace to the market through different routes. Supply from the western world set to expand by 1.3 m ton pa in 2023, the biggest expansion in a decade. Demand is projected to grow strongly over the decade to come with energy transition and EVs being strong sources of demand. Western premiums likely to stay elevated versus Asian premiums to attract metal. Increasing focus on low carbon aluminium. But weakness before strength.

SEB commodities price forecast:

SEB commodities price forecast

Chinese credit cycle vs industrial metals. Chinese credit expansion has already started.

Chinese credit cycle vs industrial metals
Source: SEB calculations, data from Blberg

This report has been compiled by SEB´s Commodity Research, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (”SEB”), to provide background information only.

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Analys

Europe’s energy policy unravels a potential advantage for US energy over Europe

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WisdomTree
WidsomTree

The clock is ticking for Europe to shield its economy amidst the current energy crisis. The cost of electricity across the European bloc is nearly 10 times the 10-year average in response to Russia cutting back natural gas supplies in retaliation to sanctions. There has been a substantial increase in the share of supply of Liquidifies Natural Gas (LNG) and alternative suppliers as a direct replacement of waning Russian gas supply.

Figure 1: Natural gas flows in the European market, first half 2022 versus first half 2021

Karta hur importen av naturgas till Europa har förändrats
Source: Bruegel, WisdomTree as of 6 September 2022. Please note: Arrows width indicates size of 2022 flow.

European leaders are racing to come up with a plan on energy intervention in the power markets. One of the measures being touted is imposing an energy windfall tax on oil and gas profits to help households and businesses survive this upcoming winter season. The plan is to re-channel these unexpected profits from the energy sector to help domestic consumers and companies pay these high bills. The windfall tax on the oil and gas companies should be treated as a “solidarity contribution,” according to European Commission (EC) President, Ursula von der Leyen.

Imposing a windfall tax on those profiting from the war

A windfall tax would impose a levy on the revenues generated by non-gas producing companies when market prices exceed €200 per megawatt hour (Mwh) and redistribute excess revenues to vulnerable companies and households. There has been greater consensus among other European Union (EU) countries on the windfall tax compared to other parts of the European Commission’s 5-point plan. This includes – setting a price cap on Russian gas, a mandatory reduction in peak electricity demand, funding for ailing utility companies, a windfall tax on fossil fuel companies and changes to collateral requirements for electricity companies. The EC’s plan will need to meet the approval of the bloc before being enforced. The most controversial issue remains the Russian price cap – aimed at penalising Russia for weaponising energy.

Coordinated energy policy needed despite different energy mix across EU bloc

There are major differences between member states based on those that rely on coal, nuclear or renewable power owing to which imposing a one energy policy will be challenging. Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia, known to import large amounts of Russian gas are against the price cap on Russian gas. On the other hand, a number of  EU countries including France, Italy, and Poland, support a cap, but argue it should apply to all imported forms of the fuel, including LNG. Germany is undecided but fears the disagreements on the price caps risk spoiling EU unity. Spain, a big generator of wind and solar power was quick to draw criticism of the proposed €200/Mwh as it does not correspond to the real costs and fails to support electrification and the deployment of renewables.

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In the US, various Senators including Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden, have proposed legislation that would double the tax rate of large oil and gas companies excess profits. However, given the current political climate it seems increasingly unlikely that these proposals would gain any traction in Congress.

Europe’s energy policy likely to put a strain on capex in the near term

Since the oil price plunge from 2014 to 2016 alongside climate change awareness and Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) mandates, the energy sector saw a sharp decline in capital expenditure (capex). Since then, capex in the global energy sector has failed to attain the levels last seen at the peak in 2014. While capex trends in Europe’s energy sector had begun to outpace that of the US, driven mainly by a rise in the share of spending on clean energy, we believe the impending energy crisis and energy policy including the national windfall levies in Europe are likely to disincentivise capex in Europe compared to the US over the medium term. High prices are encouraging several countries to step up fossil fuel investment, as they seek to secure and diversify their sources of supply.

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree as of 31 August 2022.

The divergent energy policies and prevalent supply situations in the US and Europe opens up a potential opportunity in the energy sector. The energy sector has been the unique bright spot in global equity markets in 2022 posting the strongest earnings results in H1 2022. Despite its strong price performance, the US energy sector trades at a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 8x and has a dividend yield of 3%. In September 2008, the energy sector had a 12.5% weight in the S&P 500 and was the fourth largest sector by market capitalisation in the world’s largest economy and equity market. Fast forward to today, the energy sector accounts for only 4% of the S&P 500 Index. While the future trajectory is greener, the world has come to terms with the fact that we will require oil and gas in the interim in order to fulfil our energy requirements. Investment is increasing in all parts of the energy sector, but the main boost in recent years has come from the power sector – mainly in renewables and grids – and from increased spending on end-use efficiency. As Europe plans to reduce its reliance on Russian energy supply, it will become more reliant on US LNG imports. This should fuel further investment in the US energy sector in the interim.

Aneeka Gupta, Director, Macroeconomic Research, WisdomTree

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Analys

Agricultural commodities could offer a hedge against inflation

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WisdomTree
WidsomTree

Agricultural commodity prices have been buoyed higher by rising grain and oilseed prices. At a time, when global equities have sold off by nearly 13.88% amidst soaring inflation and tightening liquidity conditions, agricultural commodities are up 26.8%. There are a plethora of supply side issues emanating from the war that are likely to continue to drive prices higher – the rise of protectionism, higher fertiliser costs, changing biofuel mandates and adverse weather conditions to name a few. The Russia-Ukraine war has had ripple effects from disrupting supply chains to raising fertiliser costs.

Rising protectionism buoys agricultural commodities higher

The war-related disruptions have also given rise to protectionism. To cite a few examples in 2022– India, the world’s third largest wheat producer, announced it would restrict wheat exports to manage domestic supplies of the grain, which led to a sharp rise in wheat prices. Indonesia also announced an export ban on palm oil on April 28, but the ban was lifted on May 19 after hundreds of farmers rallied to protest the move. In a tight oil-seeds markets, the initial announcement led soybean oil, an alternative to palm oil, sharply higher.

Source: WisdomTree as of 7 June 2022

Higher biofuel blending mandates to bolster demand for corn and soybean oil

Changes in the biofuel blending mandates are also poised to increase demand for agricultural commodities. The US is home to the world’s largest biofuel market. The Biden administration is ordering refiners to boost the use of biofuels such as corn-based ethanol. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is requiring refiners to mix 20.63 billion gallons of renewable fuels into gasoline and diesel this year, marking a 9.5% increase over last year’s target. This will put pressure on refiners to blend more biofuel into their gasoline production this year, resulting in a net positive impact on the biofuels industry. Grains such as corn stand to benefit owing to their high starch content and relatively easy conversion to ethanol. Amidst waning stockpiles of diesel, Brazil is also considering increasing the biodiesel blend to 15% from 10% (i.e. the amount of soybean oil blended into trucking fuel). This has the potential to bolster demand for soybeans at a time when soybeans are already in short supply due to droughts in South America and US plantings trail last year’s pace.

Rising fertiliser costs are weakening demand, in turn lowering yields

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused disruptions in fertiliser production and material price increases, which has put farmer margins and agricultural yields at risk elsewhere, driving the prices of most agricultural commodities higher. Russia and Ukraine account for a significant share of the global fertiliser trade. Russia produces 9% of global nitrogen fertiliser, 10% of global phosphate fertiliser, and 20% of global potash fertiliser. It exports more than two thirds of its production of each product. Belarus produces an additional 17% of global potash and exports most of it.

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Owing to its high soil quality, Argentina tends to use less fertilisers, but Brazil (the world’s largest importer of fertilisers) of which 85% of its needs are imported, is likely to feel the impact more. Russia alone accounts for 25% of Brazil’s total fertiliser imports. Farmers can also plant more soybeans, which require less fertilisers than corn. The US and global corn balance are set to continue to tighten, which suggests that the current high price environment is set to linger. The high prices and low availability of fertilisers is making farmers reduce usage and is also resulting in lower fertiliser prices similar to the trend witnessed back in 2008.

Ammonia prices
Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree as of 27 May 2022.

Speculative positioning garnering momentum among agricultural commodities 

According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positioning in agricultural commodities has risen considerably since the covid pandemic. Tighter supply coupled with stockpiling by national governments concerned about food security has led to a rise in agricultural commodity prices. Not only has net speculative positioning on agricultural commodities risen versus its own history but also in comparison to other commodity subsectors, as illustrated in the chart below:

Speculative positions
Source: WisdomTree, CFTC, Bloomberg as of 25 May 2022.

Adverse weather conditions impact agricultural commodities

El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. The pattern shifts back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, precipitation. The current La Niña has been around since October 2021. It has been responsible for the South American droughts, milder weather in Southern parts of US and heavy rainfalls across the Pacific Northwest. There is a 51% chance La Niña could continue into the December to February period, with those odds down from last month’s forecast of 58% according to the US climate prediction centre. The waters across the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to stay cool or be close to normal between June and September, which means the influence on weather patterns won’t be enough to disrupt tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic.  

Conclusion

Agricultural commodities have posted a strong performance in 2022. Yet there remain plenty of factors that could drive the performance of this commodity subsector even higher. Agricultural commodities are unique owing to their high dependence on weather conditions that make them volatile but also offer diversification benefits.

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Aneeka Gupta, Director, Macroeconomic Research, WisdomTree

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