Analys
SHB Råvarubrevet 25 oktober 2013

Råvaror allmänt
Nu märks USA-effekten
Senaste veckan har bjudit på tillfälligt dystrare ekonomiska utsikter efter den finanspolitiska turbulensen i USA. Nedstängningen av den federala staten slår automatiskt på BNP-tillväxten under det fjärde kvartalet. Intressant är vilka effekter den förhöjda osäkerheten i USA (skuldtaksfrågan är ju bara framskjuten till början av nästa år) kommer att få på investerings- och konsumtionsbeslut, även om denna osäkerhet har minskat något sedan en överenskommelse kom på plats. Offentliganställda har flera viktiga deadlines att beakta – stundar ännu en nedstängning i januari? Marknadens förväntningar på en nedskalning av Federal Reserves obligationsköparprogram, QE3, har också förändrats tydligt den senaste månaden. Från att en nästan enhällig ekonomkår trodde på en nedskalning i september är konsensus nu snarare mars 2014. Bland råvarorna har det främst prisats in i guld som handlas på 4 veckors högsta.
Vårt tema där Kina ska stå för höstens positiva makroöverraskning håller i sig. Flashen för inköpschefsindex kom in under veckan på 50,9, upp från 50,2 i september och den högsta nivån på 7 månader. Basmetallerna är dock fortsatt ”rangehandlade”, klämda mellan starkare utsikter för efterfrågan från Kina och ett produktionsöverskott i marknaden.
Brentpriset ser denna vecka ut att gå mot det största raset på 4 månader. Orsakerna till prisuppgången i augusti verkar nu omvänt. Lagernivåerna i USA steg under veckan oväntat mycket – i somras föll de oväntat mycket. Den politiska turbulensen i Mellanöstern har också hamnat utanför kameralinsen senaste veckorna vilket prisar ur mer av riskpremien. När elpriset dessutom har haft två svaga veckor efter väderomslag med stor nederbörd och blötare prognoser så har vårt energiindex tappat sin starka trend uppåt. Vi tror dock på en come back, främst för el i närtid.
Basmetaller
Lagerproblematik pressar upp fysisk premie
Basmetallerna har stärkts över lag under veckan, dels på grund av positiv PMI-flash från Kina, och vi tror på en fortsatt stark höst. LME Index har stabiliserats efter sommarens bottennoteringar och vi räknar med att den positiva trenden fortsätter utan några dramatiska rörelser. Överskottet bör ha diskonterats för och läget på metaller kanske bäst illustreras genom bilden nedan där Nickel och Aluminium är de två metaller som handlas på störst rabatt sett i förhållande till marginalkostnad.
Ser vi till Aluminium och Zink förstärks balansen ytterligare av de lager som förväntas nå marknaden i samband med LME´s eventuella reglering för att få bukt på flaskhalsarna, dvs köerna som drivit upp fysiska premierna 100-200 procent över 10-års snittet samtidigt som börskurserna ligger kvar kring 10-års snittet. På Aluminium innebär det sannolikt att vi börjar röra oss tillbaka mot normalnivån om ca 100 dollar (från de 250-300 dollar vi sett) så vi förväntar oss att LME inom kort ger besked kring dessa regleringar som i stora drag skall se till att lika mycket metall går ut som kommer in, med implementeringstart från april nästa år.
Vi tror att Kinas tillväxt kommer överraska positivt under Q4 och Q1, vilket kommer stärka metallerna. Vi tror på: LONG BASMETALLER
Ädelmetaller
Återigen oro för strejk i Sydafrika
Guldet handlas upp 1.5 procent med visst stöd från ETF-flöden och en försvagad dollar där EURUSD för första gången på två år passerade 1.38. Platina stiger med ungefär lika mycket och ökat fokus på den förnyade strejkoron i Sydafrika. AMCU-facket misslyckades i sina löneförhandlingar gentemot Anglo American (världens största Platinaproducent) och det radikala facket är sedan tidigare i konflikt med Impala Platinum (världens näst största Platinaproducent), där alla försök till medling misslyckats. AMCU skall i början av nästa vecka besluta om man skall gå ut i strejk vid Impala. Kortsiktigt stöd om man ser till dollarutvecklingen och oron kring Sydafrika men vi räknar med att guldet sedan faller tillbaka i den mer långsiktigt negativa trend där vi befinner oss.
Efter en uppgång under sommaren tror vi åter att guldets väg lutar utför. Vi tror på: SHRT GULD H
Energi
Höga lager pressar oljan
Oljepriset har fallit under veckan till följd av stigande lager (högsta nivå sedan juni) och handlas nu på 106,6 USD/fat. Oro för kortsiktigt överskott av amerikansk råolja har fått spreaden mellan WTI och Brent-olja att gå isär, som mest under veckan på dryga 11 dollar, vilket är störst sedan april. Kombinationen av växande nordamerikanska produktionen, nya rörledningar till den amerikanska gulfkusten och storskaliga revisionsstopp på raffinaderier är anledningen till att WTI-oljan handlas så mycket lägre än Brent.
Elmarknaden (Q1-14) backar med närmare 5 procent under veckan efter att vädret slagit om och lågtrycket drivit stora nederbördsfronter rakt in mot framförallt Norge. Som mest uppmättes hela 3.5 TWh nederbördsenergi i Norge och Sverige under tisdagen och detta är enligt statistik den mest nederbördsrika dag mätt till energimängd på hela 10 år! Även den höga temperaturen har överraskat och i södra Sverige noterades 19 grader vilket är den högsta temperaturen på över 125 år! Ser vi till energibalansen bör den såldes förbättras till 15.6 TWh i underskott med prognoserna. Kolet får stöd av en svagare dollar, fraktrater samt marginalkostnad för produktion vilken inte motiverar full produktion på dessa låga nivåer. Utsläppsrätterna som bröt igenom 5 EUR-nivån har nu återhämtat sig vilket resulterar i att brytpriset för kol nu stigit med 3 euro. När de värsta lågtrycksbetonade vädret dragit förbi ser vi åter elen som köpvärd inför vintern.
Energiunderskott tillsammans med osäkerhet kring kärnkraftsverken inför vintern talar för högre elpris. Vi tror på: LONG EL
Livsmedel
Vetet är fortsatt starkt
Prisuppgången på vete den senaste tiden (6,9 % under oktober) är driven av problemen i Ryssland och Argentina, med stöd av producenternas ovilja att sälja i en stigande marknad. Det ser ut att ha blivit något torrare i Ryssland men den sådd som görs nu görs sent och under blöta förhållanden. Omkring 5 procent av vårveteskörden återstår i Ryssland, den del av detta som blir skördat håller låg kvalitet. Utan nya problem inom kort blir vi inte förvånade om vi ser ytterligare korrigering nedåt den närmsta tiden. Det finns trots allt gott om spannmål att tillgå i världen och ännu mer på ingång.
Skörden på sojabönor i USA går framåt, till helgen beräknas omkring 85 procent av skörden vara avklarad. Inkommande skörderapporter talar för en avkastning på åtminstone 42 bushels per acre. Sojasådden i Brasilien går framåt i rask i bra takt under bra förhållanden, vilket stärker tron om en kommande rekordskörd. Det tillsammans med höga förväntningar på en stor amerikansk sojaareal till våren talar för lägre priser på soja på några månaders sikt.
Med anledning av ett ökat intresse kring kaffe har vi i skrivit lite mer ingående om denna lyxiga råvara. Läs Kaffe Special Edition.
Handelsbankens Råvaruindex

Handelsbankens råvaruindex består av de underliggande indexen för respektive råvara. Vikterna är bestämda till hälften från värdet av nordisk produktion (globala produktionen för sektorindex) och till hälften från likviditeten i terminskontrakten.
[box]SHB Råvarubrevet är producerat av Handelsbanken och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]
Ansvarsbegränsning
Detta material är producerat av Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) i fortsättningen kallad Handelsbanken. De som arbetar med innehållet är inte analytiker och materialet är inte oberoende investeringsanalys. Innehållet är uteslutande avsett för kunder i Sverige. Syftet är att ge en allmän information till Handelsbankens kunder och utgör inte ett personligt investeringsråd eller en personlig rekommendation. Informationen ska inte ensamt utgöra underlag för investeringsbeslut. Kunder bör inhämta råd från sina rådgivare och basera sina investeringsbeslut utifrån egen erfarenhet.
Informationen i materialet kan ändras och också avvika från de åsikter som uttrycks i oberoende investeringsanalyser från Handelsbanken. Informationen grundar sig på allmänt tillgänglig information och är hämtad från källor som bedöms som tillförlitliga, men riktigheten kan inte garanteras och informationen kan vara ofullständig eller nedkortad. Ingen del av förslaget får reproduceras eller distribueras till någon annan person utan att Handelsbanken dessförinnan lämnat sitt skriftliga medgivande. Handelsbanken ansvarar inte för att materialet används på ett sätt som strider mot förbudet mot vidarebefordran eller offentliggörs i strid med bankens regler.
Analys
Very relaxed at USD 75/b. Risk barometer will likely fluctuate to higher levels with Brent into the 80ies or higher coming 2-3 weeks

Brent rallied 12% last week. But closed the week below USD 75/b and it is still there. Very relaxed. Brent crude rallied 12% to USD 78.5/b in the early hours of Friday as Israel attacked Iran. The highest level since 27 January this year. The level didn’t hold and Brent closed the day at USD 74.23/b which was up 5.7% on the day and 11.7% on the week. On Friday it was still very unclear how extensive and lasting this war between Iran and Israel would be. Energy assets in Iran had still not been touched and Iran had not targeted other Middle East countries’ energy assets or US military bases in the region. As such, the Brent crude closed the week comfortably at around USD 75/b. Which one cannot argue is very much of a stressed price level.

Israel is targeting Iran’s domestic energy infrastructure. Not its energy export facilities. For now. Over the weekend Israel has widened its targets to include fuel depots in Tehran, refineries supplying Iran domestically and also a processing plant at Iran’s South Pars gas field – the world’s largest. So far it appears that Israel has refrained from hurting Iranian oil and gas export facilities. Maybe adhering to Trump’s whish of low oil prices. Trump has been begging for a lower oil price. Would be very frustrating for him if Israel started to blow up Iran’s export facilities. Focus instead looks to be on Iran’s domestic energy supply and infrastructure. To weaken and disable the operations of Iran as a country while leaving Iran’s energy export facilities intact for now at least. That is probably why Brent crude this morning is only trading at USD 74.9/b with little change from Friday. An incredible relaxed price level given what is going on in the Middle East.
Israel seems to try to do to Iran what Israel recently did to Lebanon. Israel now seems to have close to total control of the Iranian air space. So called ”Air Supremacy” something which is rarely achieved according to Phillips P. O’Brian (see comment on this below with link). This is giving Israel close to total freedom in the airspace over Iran. Israel now seems to try to do to Iran what Israel recently did to Lebanon. Take out military and political commanders. Take out the air defenses. Then grind the rest of its defensive capacities to the ground over some time.
Continuous pressure. No rest. No letting up for several weeks seems likely. The current situation is a very rare opportunity for Israel to attack Iran with full force. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian strongholds in Syria, are all severely weakened or disabled. And now also Air Supremacy of the airspace over Iran. It is natural to assume that Israel will not let this opportunity pass. As such it will likely continue with full force over several weeks to come, at least, with Israel grinding down the rest of Iran’s defensive capabilities and domestic energy supply facilities as far as possible. Continuous pressure. No rest. No letting up.
What to do with Fordow? Will Iran jump to weapons grade uranium? The big question is of course Iran’s nuclear facilities. Natanz with 16,000 enrichment centrifuges was destroyed by Israel on Friday. It was only maximum 20 meters below ground. It was where Iran had mass enrichment to low enrichment levels. Fordow is a completely different thing. It is 500 meters deep under a mountain. It is where enrichment towards weapons grade Uranium takes place. Iran today has 408 kg of highly enriched uranium (IAEA) which can be enriched to weapons grade. It is assumed that Iran will only need 2-3 days to make 25 kg of weapons grade uranium and three weeks to make enough for 9 nuclear warheads. How Israel decides to deal with Fordow is the big question. Ground forces? Help from the US?
Also, if Iran is pushed to the end of the line, then it might decide to enrich to weapons grade which again will lead to a cascade of consequences.
Brent is extremely relaxed at USD 75/b. But at times over coming 2-3 weeks the risk barometer will likely move higher with Brent moving into the 80ies or higher. The oil price today is extremely relaxed with the whole thing. Lots of OPEC+ spare capacity allows loss of Iranian oil exports. Israeli focus on Iran’s domestic energy systems rather than on its exports facilities is also soothing the market. But at times over the coming two, three weeks the risk barometer will likely move significantly higher as it might seem like the situation in the Middle East may move out of control. So Brent into the 80ies or higher seems highly likely in the weeks to come. At times at least. And if it all falls apart, the oil price will of course move well above 100.
Phillips P. OBrien on ”Air Supremacy” (embedded link): Air power historian Philip Meilinger: ”Air Superiority is defined as being able to conduct air operations “without prohibitive interference by the opposing force.” Air Supremacy goes further, wherein the opposing air force is incapable of effective interference.”
Thus, air supremacy is an entirely different beast from air superiority. It occurs when one power basically controls the skies over an enemy, and can operate practically anywhere/time that it wants without much fear of enemy interference in its operations.
The US had Air Supremacy over Germany in the second World War, but only at the very end when it was close to over. It only had Air Superiority in the Vietnam war, but not Supremacy. During Desert Storm in 1990-1991 however it did have Supremacy with devastating consequences for the enemy. (last paragraph is a condensed summary).
Analys
Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b to make cheating unprofitable for Kazakhstan

Brent jumping 2.4% as OPEC+ lifts quota by ”only” 411 kb/d in July. Brent crude is jumping 2.4% this morning to USD 64.3/b following the decision by OPEC+ this weekend to lift the production cap of ”Voluntary 8” (V8) by 411 kb/d in July and not more as was feared going into the weekend. The motivation for the triple hikes of 411 kb/d in May and June and now also in July has been a bit unclear: 1) Cheating by Kazakhstan and Iraq, 2) Muhammed bin Salman listening to Donald Trump for more oil and a lower oil price in exchange for weapons deals and political alignments in the Middle East and lastly 3) Higher supply to meet higher demand for oil this summer. The argument that they are taking back market share was already decided in the original plan of unwinding the 2.2 mb/d of V8 voluntary cuts by the end of 2026. The surprise has been the unexpected speed with monthly increases of 3×137 kb/d/mth rather than just 137 kb/d monthly steps.

No surplus yet. Time-spreads tightened last week. US inventories fell the week before last. In support of point 3) above it is worth noting that the Brent crude oil front-end backwardation strengthened last week (sign of tightness) even when the market was fearing for a production hike of more than 411 kb/d for July. US crude, diesel and gasoline stocks fell the week before last with overall commercial stocks falling 0.7 mb versus a normal rise this time of year of 3-6 mb per week. So surplus is not here yet. And more oil from OPEC+ is welcomed by consumers.
Saudi Arabia calling the shots with Russia objecting. This weekend however we got to know a little bit more. Saudi Arabia was predominantly calling the shots and decided the outcome. Russia together with Oman and Algeria opposed the hike in July and instead argued for zero increase. What this alures to in our view is that it is probably the cheating by Kazakhstan and Iraq which is at the heart of the unexpectedly fast monthly increases. Saudi Arabia cannot allow it to be profitable for the individual members to cheat. And especially so when Kazakhstan explicitly and blatantly rejects its quota obligation stating that they have no plans of cutting production from 1.77 mb/d to 1.47 mb/d. And when not even Russia is able to whip Kazakhstan into line, then the whole V8 project is kind of over.
Is it simply a decision by Saudi Arabia to unwind faster altogether? What is still puzzling though is that despite the three monthly hikes of 411 kb/d, the revival of the 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts is still kind of orderly. Saudi Arabia could have just abandoned the whole V8 project from one month to the next. But we have seen no explicit communication that the plan of reviving the cuts by the end of 2026 has been abandoned. It may be that it is simply a general change of mind by Saudi Arabia where the new view is that production cuts altogether needs to be unwinded sooner rather than later. For Saudi Arabia it means getting its production back up to 10 mb/d. That implies first unwinding the 2.2 mb/d and then the next 1.6 mb/d.
Brent would likely crash with a fast unwind of 2.2 + 1.6 mb/d by year end. If Saudi Arabia has decided on a fast unwind it would meant that the group would lift the quotas by 411 kb/d both in August and in September. It would then basically be done with the 2.2 mb/d revival. Thereafter directly embark on reviving the remaining 1.6 mb/d. That would imply a very sad end of the year for the oil price. It would then probably crash in Q4-25. But it is far from clear that this is where we are heading.
Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b or lower to make it unprofitable for Kazakhstan to cheat. To make it unprofitable for Kazakhstan to cheat. Kazakhstan is currently producing 1.77 mb/d versus its quota which before the hikes stood at 1.47 kb/d. If they had cut back to the quota level they might have gotten USD 70/b or USD 103/day. Instead they choose to keep production at 1.77 mb/d. For Saudi Arabia to make it a loss-making business for Kazakhstan to cheat the oil price needs to fall below USD 58/b ( 103/1.77).
Analys
All eyes on OPEC V8 and their July quota decision on Saturday

Tariffs or no tariffs played ping pong with Brent crude yesterday. Brent crude traded to a joyous high of USD 66.13/b yesterday as a US court rejected Trump’s tariffs. Though that ruling was later overturned again with Brent closing down 1.2% on the day to USD 64.15/b.

US commercial oil inventories fell 0.7 mb last week versus a seasonal normal rise of 3-6 mb. US commercial crude and product stocks fell 0.7 mb last week which is fairly bullish since the seasonal normal is for a rise of 4.3 mb. US crude stocks fell 2.8 mb, Distillates fell 0.7 mb and Gasoline stocks fell 2.4 mb.
All eyes are now on OPEC V8 (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Algeria, Russia, Oman, Kazakhstan) which will make a decision tomorrow on what to do with production for July. Overall they are in a process of placing 2.2 mb/d of cuts back into the market over a period stretching out to December 2026. Following an expected hike of 137 kb/d in April they surprised the market by lifting production targets by 411 kb/d for May and then an additional 411 kb/d again for June. It is widely expected that the group will decide to lift production targets by another 411 kb/d also for July. That is probably mostly priced in the market. As such it will probably not have all that much of a bearish bearish price impact on Monday if they do.
It is still a bit unclear what is going on and why they are lifting production so rapidly rather than at a very gradual pace towards the end of 2026. One argument is that the oil is needed in the market as Middle East demand rises sharply in summertime. Another is that the group is partially listening to Donald Trump which has called for more oil and a lower price. The last is that Saudi Arabia is angry with Kazakhstan which has produced 300 kb/d more than its quota with no indications that they will adhere to their quota.
So far we have heard no explicit signal from the group that they have abandoned the plan of measured increases with monthly assessments so that the 2.2 mb/d is fully back in the market by the end of 2026. If the V8 group continues to lift quotas by 411 kb/d every month they will have revived the production by the full 2.2 mb/d already in September this year. There are clearly some expectations in the market that this is indeed what they actually will do. But this is far from given. Thus any verbal wrapping around the decision for July quotas on Saturday will be very important and can have a significant impact on the oil price. So far they have been tightlipped beyond what they will do beyond the month in question and have said nothing about abandoning the ”gradually towards the end of 2026” plan. It is thus a good chance that they will ease back on the hikes come August, maybe do no changes for a couple of months or even cut the quotas back a little if needed.
Significant OPEC+ spare capacity will be placed back into the market over the coming 1-2 years. What we do know though is that OPEC+ as a whole as well as the V8 subgroup specifically have significant spare capacity at hand which will be placed back into the market over the coming year or two or three. Probably an increase of around 3.0 – 3.5 mb/d. There is only two ways to get it back into the market. The oil price must be sufficiently low so that 1) Demand growth is stronger and 2) US shale oil backs off. In combo allowing the spare capacity back into the market.
Low global inventories stands ready to soak up 200-300 mb of oil. What will cushion the downside for the oil price for a while over the coming year is that current, global oil inventories are low and stand ready to soak up surplus production to the tune of 200-300 mb.
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