Held in check within a tight range. Brent managed to stage a small 0.4% gain yesterday. It closed at USD 69.56/b and traded within a range of USD 68.63 – 7.44/b. This morning it is adding another 0.4% to USD 69.8/b. Since 4 March it has closed within a tight range of USD 69.28 – 70.36/b and traded within a slightly wider range of USD 68.33 – 71.4/b.

Depressed by US equity market sell-off saying dark clouds are on the horizon. When we look at the dips to the 70-line and below since late 2021 we see that they have been very brief with little staying power at that level. Bouncing back up very quickly. Just a quick touch. This time however we have been staying down around the 70-line for 6-7 days. Despite the fact that the front-end 1-3mth time-spreads have held up and have not fallen off a cliff.

What stands out with the current selloff versus the previous selloffs is the sharp decline in the S&P 500 index. (SPX) Down 9.3% since 19 Feb. The SPX index is the ”canary in the coal mine”. It is all about the negative fallout from Trump-Tariff-Turmoil and all the other erratic and disrupting actions from Trump. The US equity market is saying that this is BAD for the US economy. And if so, it is usually also bad for the rest of the world in the old sense that ”when the US sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold”.

The implication of this is that if we now get an equity market rebound, then we are likely to get an oil price rebound as well since that is what seems to hold back the Brent crude oil price at the current level.

To all we can see however, Donald Trump does not seem to back off. He is steamrolling ahead. Drugged by his own power and assumed infallibility. The fear by investors which the SPX index is signaling aren’t going to go away except for temporary rebounds. Instead, we are likely to see increasing negative readings in a range of macro variables going forward as a consequence of what Trump is currently doing. The single reason for why we at all doubt that this will be the case is because we have never, ever seen anything like this out of the US in some 100 years or more.

US EIA says, ”all is good” while US oil veteran says, ”prepare for USD 50-60/b”. The US EIA ydy published its monthly oil market report (STEO). It projects a smaller surplus in 2025 with Brent crude averaging USD 74/b this year and USD 68/b next year. Fundamental to this forecast is that all is good and well with global oil demand growing by 1.4 mb/d this year and by 1.6 mb/d in 2026. No negative fallout with respect to global oil demand there reflecting the potential negative economic fallout from Trump-Turmoil.

The US shale oil pioneer Scott Sheffield on the other hand says that ”you’ve really got to hunker down” and prepare for oil to drop to USD 50-60/b as non-US production grows while China demand peaks. That is even without taking any note on possible negative fallout from current Trump actions. What Scott is saying here is echoed by the US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, the previous CEO of Liberty Energy, North America’s second largest hydraulic fracturing company, who has recently said that we’ll likely see a period of industry disruption ahead similar to the price war between OPEC and US shale oil producers in 2014.

These statements from US shale oil veterans in combination with the current vote of no confidence by US equity investors should be taken very seriously.

But then OPEC+ is always a wildcard and can counter oil price declines due to global macro weakness quite quickly as the group today meets on a regular monthly basis.

The Brent 1mth contract has been trading in a very tight range and for significant longer than the previous dips to the 70-line since late 2021 which lasted for only a day or two.

The Brent crude 1mth contract is probably currently held down and in check just below the 70-line because of the ”canary in the coal mine” SPX selloff signaling dark clouds on the horizon.

If the oil market was inherently bearishly fragile it should have sold off much more yesterday. Brent crude fell 1.5% yesterday to USD 69.28/b amid an overall very bearish market sentiment where the SPX index fell 2.7% amid increasing concerns for the damages Trump is doing to the US economy and the increasing risks for a US recession with Trump himself saying that a recession is possible but that in the longer-term everything will be better. Amid such an overall bearish market sentiment one could argue that the 1.5% decline in Brent crude yesterday was a fairly limited decline. Maybe because Brent has sold off so extensively since mid-January and thus has taken out a lot of downside action already. This morning Brent is up 0.3% to USD 69.5/b. Though still below the magical USD 70/b, but not much. If the oil market was inherently bearishly fragile it should have sold off much more yesterday.

A weakening of the 1-3mth time-spreads probably needed for Brent 1M to move lower. The 1-3mth time-spreads are holding quite steady. No rapid deterioration to be seen yet. And the flat price Brent 1mth contract is trading weakly versus the average 1-3mth time-spread of Brent, WTI and Dubai with Dubai the strongest. To see further aggressive downside price action, we probably need to see further deterioration in the front-end time-spreads.

A period of industry disruption ahead says US Energy secretary. The US Energy secretary Chris Wright has told the Financial Times that we’ll likely see a period of industry disruption ahead similar to the price war between OPEC and US shale oil producers in 2014. But that the US shale oil industry will come out stronger and with much lower costs than before. This is definitely not what the market is pricing in today. It can only take place if either OPEC+ or US shale oil producers boosts production or if we get a global recession. OPEC+ looks set for a controlled and gradual lifting of production and US shale oil players looks set for a very careful production growth. With such signals from Crish Wright one should think that US shale oil players will play an even more defensive game in fear of possibly tumbling prices. The signals from Crish Wright are chilling to say the least, but it is highly unclear how he is going to pull it off.

Brent 1mth has taken out the USD 68.68/b but has still not followed through to yet lower levels than the recent USD 68.33/b.

1-3mth time spreads of Brent, WTI and Dubai have recovered since mid-Feb and are holding out quite strongly. No deterioration to been seen at the moment.

The average 1-3mth time-spreads of Brent, WTI and Dubai versus the Brent 1mth contract.

The average Brent 1mth price at current 1-3mth time-spreads at current level historically.

Brent fell 3.9% as OPEC+ will produce more in April. Brent crude fell 3.9% last week to USD 70.36/b. Following a low of USD 68.33/b, the lowest since December 2021, it rebounded on Friday with an intraday high that day of USD 71.4/b. The message from OPEC+ at the end of February that they will start to lift production from April was the main bearish driver.

Net long specs are folding their cards as bullish prospects fade. Net long speculative positions in Brent and WTI fell 73.8 mb to 344 mb over the week to Tuesday April 4. It is still well above the 162 mb length on 10 Sep when Brent bottomed at USD 68.68/b. I.e. we came to a lower price level this time around with higher specs than on 10 Sep. Speculators thus has potential to shed more length if the bearish sentiment continuous.

Weakening of the crude curve – how far? OPEC+ preference is flat to backwardated. But the group can probably stomach flat to slight contango during a period where they lift production. The Brent crude structure has been in steady decline since the Brent 1mth to 60mth price spread peaked at USD 47.4/b on 10 June 2022. The latest signal from OPEC+ of more oil supply into a period of projected surplus calls for yet softer crude curve structure as rising inventories naturally should drive it into contango with front-end discount to longer dated prices. But OPEC+ has a natural distaste for a contango market as they then sell their oil at a discount to assumed non-OPEC+ marginal costs.

The 1mth to 60mth time spread has gone into deep contango three times over the past 20 years. Negative macro shocks in 2008/09 and in 2020 were countered by OPEC(+). But it took some time to drive the Brent curve back to flat/backwardated. In 2014/15 it was deliberate action by OPEC in order to ”kill US shale oil producers” but OPEC policy was reversed in 2016, and OPEC+ was created.

OPEC+ is unlikely to repeat 2014/15. The group is still in full control. It can probably accept a flat curve and stomach a little contango for a while. But deep contango like in 2008/09 and in 2020 will require a negative macro-shock. A flat curve implies a Brent 1mth at USD 67/b (= five year contract). But longer dated contracts have a tendency to weaken a little when the front-end weakens.

Brent crude 1mth down to USD 68.33/b last week and lowest since Dec 2021.

A substantial weakening of the Brent crude oil curve since July 2024. Still front-end backwardation. Longer dated price holding steady around USD 67/b. But it was closer to USD 70/b in July 2024.

The Brent 1mth still holds a small premium of USD 3.2/b over the 60mth contract. But clear fading since 2022.

The Brent 1mth to 60mth price spread. Deep contango three times over past 20 years. Deliberate by OPEC in 2014/15. But negative macro shock in 2008/09 and 2020. OPEC+ can probably accept a flat curve and stomach a light contango over a little period while they place some of their volumes back into the market. But deep contango requires a sharp, negative macro shock.

Net long speculative positions fell 73.8 mb last week. Still some length to shed if bearish sentiment persists.

52 week ranking of Brent 1 to 7 mth curve structure and net long speculative positions in Brent + WTI.