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SHB Råvarubrevet 6 september 2013

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Handelsbanken - Råvarubrevet - Nyhetsbrev om råvaror

Handelsbanken - Råvarubrevet inklusive ädelmetallerRåvaror allmänt

Man petar inte på en skallerom

Risktillgångar har drabbats av viss tillbakagång under veckan när en amerikansk attack mot Syrien har blivit allt mer uppenbar. Vi gästades av FOI:s analytiker som menar att sannolikheten för en attack från Obama nu är mer än 80 %. Antingen dödar man en skallerorm eller så låter man den vara i fred; man petar inte på den. Har Obama gett sig in i argumentationen med Syrien så kommer han sannolikt att löpa hela linan ut. Den geopolitiska spänningen ökar riskpremien i olja men verkar dämpande på de flesta andra råvaror.

Globalt fortsätter makrodata att vittna om en förbättring. Veckan startade med ett bättre än väntat inköpschefsindex från Kina och slutar med bra inköpschefsindex (PMI) och arbetsmarknadsdata (jobless claims) från USA. Vårt tema med en marknad som drivs av robust makrodata håller alltså i sig, och vi tror att det fortgår några månader till. Mycket av den bra makrodatan verkar dock redan vara inprisad i många tillgångslag givet hur börsen och räntemarknaden betett sig senaste tiden. Stundande oro för råvarumarknaden är Fed:s ”tapering” som väntas tillkännages under septembermötet den 18/9. Mycket av detta torde dock vara inprisat i dagens marknad och vi fortsätter därför tro att stark makrodata får råvarorna att stiga framöver.

Handelsbankens råvaruindex (USD)

Basmetaller

Kina överraskar positivt

I söndags publicerades Kinas PMI med positivt resultat, 51 mot väntade 50,6, och gav basmetallerna skjuts uppåt initialt. Efter att en attack mot Syrien blir mer sannolik har dock risktillgångar som basmetaller fallit tillbaka något under veckan. Tenn har haft ett kraftigt uppsving under veckan efter exportbegränsningar från Indonesien, värdens störta exportör. Indonesien har i sin ambition att öka de inhemska smältlönerna stoppat exporten av tenn. Dels höjer man den för export godkända halten samtidigt som man försöker stimulera den lokala handeln och landets möjligheter att behålla ett större värde av landets värdefulla naturtillgångar. Detta har tvingat PT Timah, världens tredje största producent, att åberopa force majeure sedan den 30 augusti. Låga lager och inställda leveranser från Indonesien har skickat upp priset på tenn till fem månaders högsta och har under veckan stigit med dryga 6,2 %.

Under första halvan av året har utvecklingen på basmetaller och aktiemarknaden gått ordentligt isär, bilden nedan visar utvecklingen på Handelsbankens Basmetallindex mot S&P 500 sedan 2007. Även om amerikansk och europeisk makro signalerat återhämtning under en tid, verkar den kinesiska ekonomin varit i kontraktion fram till juli/augusti i år vilket pressat efterfrågan och priserna på metaller. De senaste veckorna har vi dock sett tecken på att den kinesiska tillväxten kan ta fart igen där några fundamentala rörelser är intressanta att notera, framför allt på koppar. Kinas kopparimport har återigen ökat och såväl inhemska som globala lager har minskat samtidigt som investerare täckt sina korta positioner. När den värsta oron för ett överutbud nu avtagit samtidigt som lagren minskar anser vi att metallpriserna bör ha bottnat ur under Q2 2013 och att en ökande efterfrågan bör resultera i högre metallpriser överlag under hösten.

Handelsbankens basmetallindex mot S&P 500

Kinas kopparimport har återigen ökat och såväl inhemska som globala lager har minskat samtidigt som investerare täckt sina korta positioner. Vi tror på: LONG KOPPAR

Ädelmetaller

På guldfronten intet nytt!

Efter dagens rykande färska arbetslöshetsstatistik från USA, nonfarm payrolls som kom in något sämre än väntat, handlar guldet på 1390 dollar per uns, att jämföra med förra fredagens 1390 dollar per uns… Veckan har präglats av små rörselser i brist på nya nyheter i Syrienfrågan och i linje med en avvaktande hållning på de flesta marknaderna. Vi bibehåller vår positiva syn på guldet i det kortare perspektivet, och vår negativa syn i det längre perspektivet. Platina har tappat marginellt under veckan som gått.

Guld- och platina-priser på Comex

I ett läge där råvaror generellt har viktats ned av institutionella placerare kan guld och silver få en ”omotiverad” uppgång när dessa indexköpare återvänder till råvaror drivit av bättre utsikter för Kina och USA. Vi tror på: LONG GULD H och LONG SILVER H

Energi

Fortsatt Syrienattack i fokus

Oljan ligger kvar på höga nivåer där oron för utbudsstörningar i Mellanöstern och sannolikheten att att USA slår tillbaka på al-Assad regimen kvarstår. Buy the rumour sell the fact brukar ju vara en gyllene regel där vi tidigare sett riskpremien pysa ut ganska hastigt efter både Libyen- och Irankonflikten. Även om så sker efter en eventuell intervention, ser vi flera faktorer som kan skrämma upp oljepriset ytterligare. Den globala reservkapaciteten är endast 1.3 miljoner fat per dag och vi ställer oss frågande till om Saudiarabien, som redan idag producerar på rekordnivå, verkligen kan täcka upp för det kraftiga produktionsbortfallet från Nigeria, Libyen och Iran (se bilden nedan). Även Irak har minskat sin produktion de senaste 12 månaderna och denna osäkerhet anser vi väl motiverar nuvarande riskpremie. Lägg därtill positiv amerikansk makrostatistik vilket i kombination med vikande råoljelager för nionde veckan i rad bör skapa en hel del rörelser på uppsidan. Vår rekommendation om lång position kvartsår.

Elmarknaden och kvartalet Q1 2014 (som nu är underliggande för Handelsbankens elindex och investeringsprodukter) stiger med närmare 6 procent denna vecka. Uppgången inleddes med att Oskarshamnsverket 3 oväntat föll ur drift förra helgen vilket resulterade i att svenska kärnkraften föll tillbaka på 58 procents output. Det torra scenario vi såg mot slutet av förra veckan låg kvar över helgen vilket genererade en hel del köpintresse. Vidare har såväl bränslekomplex, utsläppsrätter och Tyska marknaden där vi sett en del shortcovering stärkts vilket gjort att vi tagit oss igenom tidigare motståndsnivåer. Vädret spelar till stor del in och begränsar nedsidan på de två kommande kvartalskontrakten. Senaste väderprognoserna pekar på ett kraftigt underskott i nederbörden de kommande 10-dagarna vilket i skrivande stund ser ut att försämra energibalansen med 5-6 TWh ned till -13 TWh. Vi ligger därför kvar med lång rekommendation.

Diagram över oljeproduktion

Oroligheterna i mellanöstern med risk för ytterligare produktionsbortfall ger stöd till oljepriset. Vi tror på: LONG OLJA

Livsmedel

Goda skördar pressar rispriset

Spannmålspriserna har den senaste tiden påverkats i hög grad av väderutvecklingen i USA. Majsen, men främst sojan som inte kommit lika långt i sin utveckling, har påverkats negativt av torrt och varmt väder och risken för nedjusteringar av kommande skörd har ökat. Väderprognoserna har varierat en del och priserna likaså – regn i sikte har pressat ned prisnivån något men nya prognoser om åter minskad nederbörd har lätt skapat ett uppsving igen.

Kakao tillhör den råvara i vårt livsmedelindex som gått bäst sedan årsskiftet. SHB Cocoa har gått upp drygt 8,5 procent som följd av bl.a. torrt väder och minskad skörd i Afrikas västkust. Under veckan har kakaopriset fått ytterligare stöd och nådde 11-månaders högsta efter nya väderrapporter som visat på halverat skyfall för de senaste 30 dagarna jämfört med ett normalår.

En annan mjuk råvara som haft ett volatilt år är ris. Underliggande terminen till SHB Rice är Rough Rice som handlas på Chicago börsen och där ett kontrakt motsvarar 2000 CWT (ca 90 kg). De globala lagren på ris väntas stiga till 107,47 miljoner ton för säsong 2013-14 – vilket är i så fall den högsta siffran på 12 år. Förväntningarna på den kommande globala risproduktionen för säsong 2013-14 visar på en ökning med 1,9 procent från tidigare säsong, enligt den senaste rapporten från amerikanska jordbruksdepartementet. Förhållandet mellan utgående lager i förhållande till årlig konsumtion är 22,6 procent. Den höga siffran visar på välfyllda rislager för säsongen varför vi tror på fallande priser.

Utveckling på rispriset, CBOT

Förväntningar på den kommande risproduktionen är stor och prognoser visar på välfyllda lager. Vi tror på: SHORT RIS

Handelsbankens Råvaruindex

Handelsbankens råvaruindex 6 september 2013

Handelsbankens råvaruindex består av de underliggande indexen för respektive råvara. Vikterna är bestämda till hälften från värdet av nordisk produktion (globala produktionen för sektorindex) och till hälften från likviditeten i terminskontrakten.

[box]SHB Råvarubrevet är producerat av Handelsbanken och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]

Ansvarsbegränsning

Detta material är producerat av Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) i fortsättningen kallad Handelsbanken. De som arbetar med innehållet är inte analytiker och materialet är inte oberoende investeringsanalys. Innehållet är uteslutande avsett för kunder i Sverige. Syftet är att ge en allmän information till Handelsbankens kunder och utgör inte ett personligt investeringsråd eller en personlig rekommendation. Informationen ska inte ensamt utgöra underlag för investeringsbeslut. Kunder bör inhämta råd från sina rådgivare och basera sina investeringsbeslut utifrån egen erfarenhet.

Informationen i materialet kan ändras och också avvika från de åsikter som uttrycks i oberoende investeringsanalyser från Handelsbanken. Informationen grundar sig på allmänt tillgänglig information och är hämtad från källor som bedöms som tillförlitliga, men riktigheten kan inte garanteras och informationen kan vara ofullständig eller nedkortad. Ingen del av förslaget får reproduceras eller distribueras till någon annan person utan att Handelsbanken dessförinnan lämnat sitt skriftliga medgivande. Handelsbanken ansvarar inte för att materialet används på ett sätt som strider mot förbudet mot vidarebefordran eller offentliggörs i strid med bankens regler.

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1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Magnus

    8 september, 2013 at 17:30

    Känns som att alla analytiker tror på stigande elpris. Bull El är det som gäller!

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Analys

Metals price forecast: Lower Before Higher

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Lower before higher

SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

The world is slowing down along with fiscal and monetary tightening. The rapid rise in interest rates this year will work with a lag so the slowdown in the real economy is likely to continue. We expect metals prices to ease along with that. The continued deterioration in the Chinese property market is likely structural with growth shifting towards higher value sectors including green energy and EVs. Chinese credit expansion has started. Stronger demand for metals like copper, nickel and aluminium is likely to emerge in H2-23. Strong prices for metals over the coming decade due to sub-par capex spending over the past decade is likely.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Weakening macro and weakening demand. The world is now in the grip of a tightening craze amid inflation panic which was the result of the stimulus boom ignited by Covid-19 panic. The US expanded its M2 monetary base by 30% of GDP during the stimulus boom. Donald Trump earlier clamped down on immigration from Mexico/Latin America. Rampant consumer spending on capital goods together with an ultra-tight labor market then led to intense inflation pressure in the US. But also, in many other countries which also stimulated too much. The US is ahead of the curve with respect to interest rate hikes. The USD has rallied, forcing many central banks around the world to lift rates to defend their currencies as well as fighting their own inflationary pressures. The Japanese central bank has refrained from doing so and has instead intervened in the yen currency market for the first time since 1998. The year 2022 will likely be the worst selloff in global government bonds since 1949 as interest rates rise rapidly from very low levels. This is taking place following a decade where the world has been gorging on ultra-cheap debt. There is clearly a risk that something will break apart somewhere in the financial system as the world gallops through this extreme roller coaster ride of stimulus and tightening. On top of this we have and energy crisis in Europe where natural gas prices for year 2023 currently is priced at 700% of normal levels. War in Ukraine, risk for the use of nuclear weapons, an enduring cool-down of the Chinese property market and continued lock-downs in China due to Covid-19 is adding plenty of uncertain elements.

Downside price risks for metals over the coming 6-9 months. The significant rise in rates around the world will work with a lag. There can be up to a 12-month lag from rates starts to rise to when they take real effect. Continued economic cool-down in the economy is thus likely. Chinese politicians seem unlikely to run yet another round of property market-based stimulus. As such there are clearly downside risks to global economic growth and industrial metals prices over the coming 6 months.

China may be a “White Swan Event” in H2-23 onward. LME’s China seminar in London on Monday 24 October this year was very interesting. The brightest spot in our view was Jinny Yang, the Chief China economist at ICBC Standard Bank. She stated that China may turn out to be a “white swan event” in H2-2023. Further that the Chinese economy now is on a decade long type of transition period. Away from property focused growth. With a shift instead to technology and innovation, telecoms and energy transition, consumer demand side economy and higher value and more advanced sectors. The property market will be a fading sector with respect to growth. Chinese politicians are fully committed to the energy transition. No slowdown in there. Credit expansion has already started. The real effect of that will emerge in H2-23. The new growth focus will be different from before. But it will still imply lots of metals like aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc, cobalt, manganese, and other special metals. There will be less copper for pipes and wiring for housing but there will be more copper for EVs, Solar power, Wind power and power networks etc.

Copper: Struggling supply from Chile, rising supply from Africa while Russian exports keeps flowing to market. The Chinese housing market normally accounts for 20% of global copper demand. So, slowing Chinese housing market is bad for copper. Russian exports keep flowing to SE Asia where it is re-exported. Good supply growth is expected from Africa in 2023. Supply from Chile is struggling with falling ore grades, political headwinds, and mining strikes. Demand is projected to boom over the coming decades while investments in new mines have been sub-par over the past decade. So strong prices in the medium to longer term. But in the short-term the negative demand forces will likely have the upper hand.

Nickel: Tight high-quality nickel market but surplus for low-quality nickel. There is currently a plentiful supply of low-grade nickel with weak stainless-steel demand and strong demand for high quality nickel for EV batteries. The result is a current USD 5-6000/ton price premium for high-quality vs. low-quality nickel. High-quality LME grade nickel now only accounts for 25% of the global nickel market. Over the coming decade there will be strong demand growth for high-quality nickel for EV batteries, but high-quality NiSO4 will take center stage. The price of high-quality nickel over the coming decade will depend on how quickly the world can ramp up low-grade to high-grade conversion capacity.

Aluminium: Russian production and exports keeps flowing at normal pace to the market through different routes. Supply from the western world set to expand by 1.3 m ton pa in 2023, the biggest expansion in a decade. Demand is projected to grow strongly over the decade to come with energy transition and EVs being strong sources of demand. Western premiums likely to stay elevated versus Asian premiums to attract metal. Increasing focus on low carbon aluminium. But weakness before strength.

SEB commodities price forecast:

SEB commodities price forecast

Chinese credit cycle vs industrial metals. Chinese credit expansion has already started.

Chinese credit cycle vs industrial metals
Source: SEB calculations, data from Blberg

This report has been compiled by SEB´s Commodity Research, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (”SEB”), to provide background information only.

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Analys

Europe’s energy policy unravels a potential advantage for US energy over Europe

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WisdomTree
WidsomTree

The clock is ticking for Europe to shield its economy amidst the current energy crisis. The cost of electricity across the European bloc is nearly 10 times the 10-year average in response to Russia cutting back natural gas supplies in retaliation to sanctions. There has been a substantial increase in the share of supply of Liquidifies Natural Gas (LNG) and alternative suppliers as a direct replacement of waning Russian gas supply.

Figure 1: Natural gas flows in the European market, first half 2022 versus first half 2021

Karta hur importen av naturgas till Europa har förändrats
Source: Bruegel, WisdomTree as of 6 September 2022. Please note: Arrows width indicates size of 2022 flow.

European leaders are racing to come up with a plan on energy intervention in the power markets. One of the measures being touted is imposing an energy windfall tax on oil and gas profits to help households and businesses survive this upcoming winter season. The plan is to re-channel these unexpected profits from the energy sector to help domestic consumers and companies pay these high bills. The windfall tax on the oil and gas companies should be treated as a “solidarity contribution,” according to European Commission (EC) President, Ursula von der Leyen.

Imposing a windfall tax on those profiting from the war

A windfall tax would impose a levy on the revenues generated by non-gas producing companies when market prices exceed €200 per megawatt hour (Mwh) and redistribute excess revenues to vulnerable companies and households. There has been greater consensus among other European Union (EU) countries on the windfall tax compared to other parts of the European Commission’s 5-point plan. This includes – setting a price cap on Russian gas, a mandatory reduction in peak electricity demand, funding for ailing utility companies, a windfall tax on fossil fuel companies and changes to collateral requirements for electricity companies. The EC’s plan will need to meet the approval of the bloc before being enforced. The most controversial issue remains the Russian price cap – aimed at penalising Russia for weaponising energy.

Coordinated energy policy needed despite different energy mix across EU bloc

There are major differences between member states based on those that rely on coal, nuclear or renewable power owing to which imposing a one energy policy will be challenging. Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia, known to import large amounts of Russian gas are against the price cap on Russian gas. On the other hand, a number of  EU countries including France, Italy, and Poland, support a cap, but argue it should apply to all imported forms of the fuel, including LNG. Germany is undecided but fears the disagreements on the price caps risk spoiling EU unity. Spain, a big generator of wind and solar power was quick to draw criticism of the proposed €200/Mwh as it does not correspond to the real costs and fails to support electrification and the deployment of renewables.

In the US, various Senators including Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden, have proposed legislation that would double the tax rate of large oil and gas companies excess profits. However, given the current political climate it seems increasingly unlikely that these proposals would gain any traction in Congress.

Europe’s energy policy likely to put a strain on capex in the near term

Since the oil price plunge from 2014 to 2016 alongside climate change awareness and Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) mandates, the energy sector saw a sharp decline in capital expenditure (capex). Since then, capex in the global energy sector has failed to attain the levels last seen at the peak in 2014. While capex trends in Europe’s energy sector had begun to outpace that of the US, driven mainly by a rise in the share of spending on clean energy, we believe the impending energy crisis and energy policy including the national windfall levies in Europe are likely to disincentivise capex in Europe compared to the US over the medium term. High prices are encouraging several countries to step up fossil fuel investment, as they seek to secure and diversify their sources of supply.

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree as of 31 August 2022.

The divergent energy policies and prevalent supply situations in the US and Europe opens up a potential opportunity in the energy sector. The energy sector has been the unique bright spot in global equity markets in 2022 posting the strongest earnings results in H1 2022. Despite its strong price performance, the US energy sector trades at a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 8x and has a dividend yield of 3%. In September 2008, the energy sector had a 12.5% weight in the S&P 500 and was the fourth largest sector by market capitalisation in the world’s largest economy and equity market. Fast forward to today, the energy sector accounts for only 4% of the S&P 500 Index. While the future trajectory is greener, the world has come to terms with the fact that we will require oil and gas in the interim in order to fulfil our energy requirements. Investment is increasing in all parts of the energy sector, but the main boost in recent years has come from the power sector – mainly in renewables and grids – and from increased spending on end-use efficiency. As Europe plans to reduce its reliance on Russian energy supply, it will become more reliant on US LNG imports. This should fuel further investment in the US energy sector in the interim.

Aneeka Gupta, Director, Macroeconomic Research, WisdomTree

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Analys

Agricultural commodities could offer a hedge against inflation

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WisdomTree
WidsomTree

Agricultural commodity prices have been buoyed higher by rising grain and oilseed prices. At a time, when global equities have sold off by nearly 13.88% amidst soaring inflation and tightening liquidity conditions, agricultural commodities are up 26.8%. There are a plethora of supply side issues emanating from the war that are likely to continue to drive prices higher – the rise of protectionism, higher fertiliser costs, changing biofuel mandates and adverse weather conditions to name a few. The Russia-Ukraine war has had ripple effects from disrupting supply chains to raising fertiliser costs.

Rising protectionism buoys agricultural commodities higher

The war-related disruptions have also given rise to protectionism. To cite a few examples in 2022– India, the world’s third largest wheat producer, announced it would restrict wheat exports to manage domestic supplies of the grain, which led to a sharp rise in wheat prices. Indonesia also announced an export ban on palm oil on April 28, but the ban was lifted on May 19 after hundreds of farmers rallied to protest the move. In a tight oil-seeds markets, the initial announcement led soybean oil, an alternative to palm oil, sharply higher.

Source: WisdomTree as of 7 June 2022

Higher biofuel blending mandates to bolster demand for corn and soybean oil

Changes in the biofuel blending mandates are also poised to increase demand for agricultural commodities. The US is home to the world’s largest biofuel market. The Biden administration is ordering refiners to boost the use of biofuels such as corn-based ethanol. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is requiring refiners to mix 20.63 billion gallons of renewable fuels into gasoline and diesel this year, marking a 9.5% increase over last year’s target. This will put pressure on refiners to blend more biofuel into their gasoline production this year, resulting in a net positive impact on the biofuels industry. Grains such as corn stand to benefit owing to their high starch content and relatively easy conversion to ethanol. Amidst waning stockpiles of diesel, Brazil is also considering increasing the biodiesel blend to 15% from 10% (i.e. the amount of soybean oil blended into trucking fuel). This has the potential to bolster demand for soybeans at a time when soybeans are already in short supply due to droughts in South America and US plantings trail last year’s pace.

Rising fertiliser costs are weakening demand, in turn lowering yields

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused disruptions in fertiliser production and material price increases, which has put farmer margins and agricultural yields at risk elsewhere, driving the prices of most agricultural commodities higher. Russia and Ukraine account for a significant share of the global fertiliser trade. Russia produces 9% of global nitrogen fertiliser, 10% of global phosphate fertiliser, and 20% of global potash fertiliser. It exports more than two thirds of its production of each product. Belarus produces an additional 17% of global potash and exports most of it.

Owing to its high soil quality, Argentina tends to use less fertilisers, but Brazil (the world’s largest importer of fertilisers) of which 85% of its needs are imported, is likely to feel the impact more. Russia alone accounts for 25% of Brazil’s total fertiliser imports. Farmers can also plant more soybeans, which require less fertilisers than corn. The US and global corn balance are set to continue to tighten, which suggests that the current high price environment is set to linger. The high prices and low availability of fertilisers is making farmers reduce usage and is also resulting in lower fertiliser prices similar to the trend witnessed back in 2008.

Ammonia prices
Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree as of 27 May 2022.

Speculative positioning garnering momentum among agricultural commodities 

According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positioning in agricultural commodities has risen considerably since the covid pandemic. Tighter supply coupled with stockpiling by national governments concerned about food security has led to a rise in agricultural commodity prices. Not only has net speculative positioning on agricultural commodities risen versus its own history but also in comparison to other commodity subsectors, as illustrated in the chart below:

Speculative positions
Source: WisdomTree, CFTC, Bloomberg as of 25 May 2022.

Adverse weather conditions impact agricultural commodities

El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. The pattern shifts back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, precipitation. The current La Niña has been around since October 2021. It has been responsible for the South American droughts, milder weather in Southern parts of US and heavy rainfalls across the Pacific Northwest. There is a 51% chance La Niña could continue into the December to February period, with those odds down from last month’s forecast of 58% according to the US climate prediction centre. The waters across the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to stay cool or be close to normal between June and September, which means the influence on weather patterns won’t be enough to disrupt tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic.  

Conclusion

Agricultural commodities have posted a strong performance in 2022. Yet there remain plenty of factors that could drive the performance of this commodity subsector even higher. Agricultural commodities are unique owing to their high dependence on weather conditions that make them volatile but also offer diversification benefits.

Aneeka Gupta, Director, Macroeconomic Research, WisdomTree

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