Analys
What is behind the recent fall in US crude oil stocks?
US crude oil stocks have fallen significantly during the summer months. This was mainly attributable to an increase in crude oil processing. In this way US refineries reacted to robust demand for middle distillates, which is reflected in low US distillate stocks and record US distillate exports. As crude oil processing declines, US crude oil stocks will likely rise again in the fourth quarter. Robust US distillate exports are exerting pressure on refinery margins in Europe, which will probably increase Europe’s dependency on imports of oil products.
US crude oil stocks have fallen significantly during the summer months. Since the end of June they have declined by 38m barrels and in mid-September reached their lowest level for 18 months. Destocking has been concentrated on two regions: in the Midwest (PADD 2) stocks have fallen by more than 20m barrels, and on the US Gulf Coast (PADD 3) by more than 14m barrels (chart 1). The lion’s share of the destocking in the Midwest related to the storage hub in Cushing, where stocks have fallen by a total of 16.5m barrels for 13 weeks in succession. What is the reason for this surprising trend and will the destocking continue?
The trend in stock levels can be divided into three sub-components: on the supply side are US oil production and US oil imports, and on the demand side, crude oil processing by refineries. US oil production has increased until recently. In mid-September it reached its highest level since May 1989 of more than 7.4m barrels per day. This component cannot therefore explain the destocking of recent weeks. On the other hand, imports of crude oil have fallen sharply. In the summer months they were, on average, 1m barrels per day lower than in the previous year. However, this will not be sufficient to balance out the simultaneous increase in US oil production. Between the end of June and mid-September this was, on average, 1.4m barrels per day above the previous year’s level. The trend on the supply side would therefore have been an indication of stockbuilding. The main reason for the significant destocking this summer is therefore to be found on the demand side, i.e. from the higher volumes of crude oil processed at refineries.
Crude oil processing in the USA was higher than usual this summer
US refineries stepped up crude oil processing much more significantly than usual this summer. Between the end of June and mid-September, an average of 16m barrels of crude oil was processed daily. This was 600,000 barrels per day more than in the corresponding period last year, and 900,000 barrels per day more than the long-term average level (chart 2). At the beginning of July, more crude oil was processed than at any time in the last eight years. It was also striking that refineries maintained processing rates at their high levels of July and August up to mid-September. Normally, refineries scale back their utilisation from the end of August as the summer driving season approaches an end. Refineries usually use the time in early autumn to carry out maintenance and to switch operations to the winter season. Hence, significantly more crude oil has been processed this summer than would otherwise be normal at this time of the year. This has only been possible by consistently dipping into crude oil stocks, although more crude oil has also been available as a result of the increased level of domestic oil production.
This cannot be explained with trends in the US gasoline market…
The fact that US refineries have increased their crude oil processing so strongly over an extended period this summer cannot be explained by trends in the US gasoline market, which is normally the most important driver of refinery activity in the summer months. Demand for gasoline in the US during the summer driving season showed virtually no increase compared to last year. US gasoline stocks have remained consistently 5 to 6 per cent above their long-term average for weeks with a few exceptions. US gasoline production was just slightly higher this summer than in the previous years. Moreover, the US exported less gasoline between March and July than one year ago, according to the EIA.
…but is attributable to distillate production in particular
The reason for the unusually high level of refinery activity over a prolonged period is above all attributable to middle distillates. US refineries have significantly increased the production of middle distillates in particular. This increased to an average of 5m barrels per day in the summer months, which was 13% higher than average for the last five years. More than half of the increase in crude oil processing this summer is therefore attributable to the middle distillates segment. The varying trend in processing margins is likely to have played a part here. While margins for gasoline production have fallen to the lowest level since end of 2011, they are still relatively high for middle distillates (chart 3). The fact that margins for middle distillates have held up much better is attributable to low US distillate stocks, which have remained well below their long-term average levels despite robust production of middle distillates.
Strong demand for distillates in and outside the USA
This is mainly the result of higher domestic demand and robust demand for distillates from abroad. Distillate demand from US consumers was 10% higher than last year during the summer months and 6% above the average of the last five years. Moreover, the USA exported 1.276m barrels of middle distillates per day on balance in July after having reached a level nearly as high in June (chart 4, page 3). Daily net distillate exports were almost twice as high in June and July as in the first four months of the year and also 26% above the same period last year. Weekly estimates from the US Energy Information Administration also indicate that distillate exports remained at a similarly high level in August and September.
Refinery activity is unlikely to sustain these exceptionally high levels
US refineries have benefited from cheaper crude oil from the country’s interior until recently, which, thanks to new pipeline capacity, can be transported to the US Gulf Coast, where roughly half of US refinery capacity is situated. This also enables US refineries to avoid the continuing restrictions on crude oil exports from the USA, since these restrictions do not apply to the export of oil products. Despite everything, US refineries are unlikely to maintain their distinctly high levels of crude oil processing of recent months, given lower margins. The EIA expects average crude oil processing of 15.3m barrels per day in the fourth quarter. This would still be more than 500,000 barrels per day above the average of the last five years, but some 600,000 barrels per day less than in the third quarter. The lower demand for crude oil from refineries indicates higher stock levels, if US oil imports are not being reduced markedly, as US oil production is likely to increase further as a result of the surge in shale oil production in North Dakota and Texas. In fact, the decline in US crude oil stocks seems to have come to an end. In the second half of September stocks were already increasing by roughly 8m barrels, due to lower volume of crude oil processing and higher oil imports.
Decline in crude oil stocks has recently also slowed at Cushing
The 13-week long decline in crude oil stocks at Cushing has also weakened visibly in recent weeks (chart 5). Whereas, between the beginning of July and the end of August, on balance an average of 1.36m barrels of crude oil per week were drained off Cushing, in September the figure had fallen to an average of less than 500,000 barrels per week. At the end of September, the decline in stocks at Cushing had almost come to an end. Should stocks be built up also at Cushing in the weeks ahead, this would not be attributable to a lack of transport or processing capacities. These are now sufficient – as the steady fall in Cushing stocks over the summer months despite rising shale oil production in the Midwest demonstrated. In fact, once the Southern leg of the Keystone XL pipeline is completed, additional transport capacities of 700,000 barrels per day will be available by year-end. A stock build-up would instead be attributable to lower crude oil processing at refineries. This should exert pressure on the WTI price in particular.
Record US distillate exports creating problems for refineries in Europe
What are the implications of these trends for Europe? According to data from the EIA, the USA was already exporting record volumes of middle distillates to Europe in May and June. Based on shipping data, this trend has continued in September. The high levels of US distillate exports will exert pressure on refinery margins in Europe. Despite low gasoil stocks, the price differential between gasoil and Brent oil has been moving in a narrow range around USD 15 per barrel for some months, which is hardly sufficient to offset the very low margins in gasoline production. The situation has been compounded by the fact that the USA itself has now become a net gasoline exporter. As a result the US market – formerly the most important sales market for European refineries – has been lost. At the same time, the USA is also competing in gasoline on other sales markets such as South America, for instance. Further refinery closures in Europe are thus on the cards, which would further increase Europe’s dependency on imports of oil products.
Last week’s oil price action distorted by rolling of the November contract last week. The December Brent crude oil contract rose $4.8/b, or 5% last week. Much of that gain was due to the roll-yield as the November contract rolled off as the M1 contract to be replaced by the Dec-26 contract. The backwardation between the Nov and the Dec contract averaged $6.5/b over the last three days before 1 October and the rolling of contract. The ”gain” over the week was thus not much of a gain at all. If we just look at the M1 contract it instead fell 2% Friday to Friday though that disguises the change in the underlying contract over the week. The Brent M1 contract closed the week at $102.25/b. The announcement of 100 mb of oil from G7 SPR helped to ease prices at the end of last week. Though that effect seems to have faded today.
More barrels from Strategic Petroleum Reserves or really barrels which were supposed to be released previously? Nonetheless, Trump seems to be content and is backing down from diesel export ban. Trump threatened the world, but especially Europe with a US diesel export ban unless Europe agreed to release diesel from strategic reserves. G7 last week decided to release 100 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. But here the obscurity starts. How much of that will be diesel? ”Substantial release of diesel within 20 days” was the statement. If it happens late in this 20 day period, it would bring us very close to the US midterm elections which of course is what Trump is worried about here. IEA members promised to release 425 mb of oil from strategic reserves of which 125 mb was to be oil products. But a significant portion of that was never really released. The question is thus whether these ”new” 100 mb release will really be new or if the lion’s share of the ”new” 100 mb is really just part of the old 425 not yet fully released. Well, it looks like the promise, irrespectively what it really is, has averted a US diesel export ban for now. And it did also help to ease prices a bit at the end of last week. An effect which looks like it has mostly faded this Monday.
$140/b is the price of crude oil in Europe today. Back to the complete distortion of oil and product prices in time and geography. The Dated Brent ”spot” price averaged $123.3/b last week. But that is really the average Day_10 to Day_20 of the ”daily Dated Brent” forward curve. But since this curve is in very steep backwardation, the real prices for physical oil cargoes at the very front-end of this daily curve sits well above the average of this daily curve. The physical premiums for Oseberg and for Fortis crude takes this steep backwardation into account. The full price average for Oseberg and Fortis last week were thus $142.5/b and $140.2/b. That is way, way higher than both the Dated Brent ”spot” price last week and the average of the Brent futures price, the M1 contract, which averaged $103.2/b last week and is trading at $102.4/b
Extreme prompt tightness may fade or get much worse. The extreme prompt tightness and backwardation we see in the market today is a display of today’s prompt situation and not necessarily a guide for the future. The much more relaxed Brent M1 contract (today December) at $102.4/b is maybe a reflection of an oil market either betting or expecting that today’s problems will be resolved somehow over the coming three months. Or, that the current flow of oil out of the SoH at 17.5 mb/d (close to normal) will be sustained or even increase over time. But we don’t know exactly why the flow of crude, products and LNG out of the SoH has been able to sustain at around 17.5 mb/d since mid-September (it seems). Is it because shippers are better at managing the risk or more willing to take the risk of transiting? Is it because the US military assistance is better? Or is it because Iran is paid by exporters and is allowing exports out through the SoH? It seems plausible that Iran expects the US to attack again after the US midterm elections. If so, then Iran may engage with fresh attacks before that date. Physical crude in Europe today is $140/b, or 2x the ”normal” price of $70/b. But if tightness escalates further, then price of crude in Europe could go to 3x, 4x or even 5x the normal level. Let’s hope that the US is able to keep the SoH ”open” at a rate of 17.5 mb/d and that another 100 mb of oil from G7 helps to shield against that upside risk.
The global oil-stock cushion is getting ”scarily thin”. Looking at the Brent M1 Dec-26 contract, one gets the impression that risks may be fairly contained. Looking at physical spot prices in Europe however of around $140/b, the sense of stress rises substantially. The latter better reflects Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, when he recently said that the cushion capacity of global oil stocks are getting ”scarily thin”.
Some key questions helping to keep the Brent M1 price above $100/b: Will Iran initiate fresh attacks before the US midterm elections? Will the US attack Iran after the elections? Will the US be able to keep the SoH close to open at 17.5 mb/d? Will the Houthis re-attack the Saudi east-west pipeline and ships trying to traverse the Bab-el Mandeb Strait as the Saudi-backed Yemen government tries to retake areas along the Red Sea recently taken by the Houthis? How far will this have to go before China finally decides to step in as a peacemaker in ME negotiations?
ARA Crude oil, diesel and nat gas prices in USD/boe
Physical crude oil premiums for Fortis and Oseberg in the NSea in USD/b premium over the Dated Brent index
Spot crude oil prices at very high levels. The Brent 1M (November) contract yesterday traded between $103.76 – 108.83/b before settling the day at $105.28/b. This morning it is trading up 1.4% to $106.8/b. That is not much of a price given that the ME crisis has been ongoing since 28 February. The Dated Brent spot price however settled yesterday at $123.78/b and averaged $120.6/b last week. Even stronger were the individual North Sea spot crude prices where Johan Sverdrup crude averaged $144/b from 21 to 24 September. And Johan Castberg was said to have traded at a premium of $32/b to the Dated Brent price last week which potentially would have placed it closer to $150/b.
A steady trend higher since $70/b in early July. Crude oil prices have been on a steady trend upwards since they bottomed out at around $70/b in early July following the discharge of some 200 million barrels of crude, products and liquids from the Persian Gulf during a two week MoU window. from 20 June to 7 July when hostilities again resumed.
The oil market today is split apart in time, space and molecules. Financial crude oil prices for November delivery are trading at $106/b (Brent) and $93.3/b (US WTI) and $107/b (Oman). But spot crude oil prices are much higher at $120-150/b as described above. But consumers do not consume crude oil, they consume diesel and gasoline and other products. And diesel prices are closer to $200/b in ARA due to destruction of Russian refineries and locked-in refineries in the Persian Gulf. Oil markets are very stressed with respect to products, but not so stressed with respect to crude oil. But refineries are eager to pay up for crude deliveries right here and now so they can convert that crude to products and make a killing profit. They are not willing to pay up for November crude deliveries in the same way as uncertainties on the Middle East situation is so high. Exorbitantly expensive VLCC freight rates is also driving prices apart. VLCC freight rates are today running at 500,000 to 1,000,000 dollar a day rather than the normal 20,000 a day. This typically adds $10-20/b for crude oil between the point of origin and the point of delivery some 30-50 days out in time when the crude is delivered. This creates a lot of confusion of what really is the price of crude oil these days. Prices are very different in time and space.
Bonds and equity markets are starting to feel the heat. The Middle East crisis is starting to feed risk and pain into financial markets where the US 10-year rate is rising along with crude and product prices with equity market indices starting to pull back in response.
The risk is rising that the ”Trump war” in the Middle East may lead to the ”Trump recession”. A legacy Trump would not likely want to have. Feed-through to financial markets, rising risks for US financial and economic recession, rising risk to Trump’s legacy, declining US stocks of Patriot and THAAD rockets could be forcing mechanisms towards a resolution of the Middle East crisis.
A picture of the future Middle East order is starting to emerge. There seems to be a lot of discussions between different parties going on and a picture of a new Middle East order is starting to emerge. A post Middle East pax Americana order. Where the different countries in the Middle East are taking much more responsibility for the security order in the region. The US provides intelligence and sell weapons to the region but is reducing its military presence. Iran is recognized as a regional power, but not the dominant one and is part of the security order in some ways. Trump can say that he reshaped the Middle East order. Exports of oil restored. The region now paying for its own defense. US soldiers pulled out to a minimum. China part of the diplomatic solution and taking some responsibility for keeping Iran in check.
Time to some kind of ME resolution? Forcing mechanisms: Declining stocks of defensive US rockets + rising crude and product prices + rising economic and financial pain and rising risk to Trump’s legacy. A window of resolution could be November to January maybe. Markets will likely increasingly price in a resolution as the picture of the future security order in the Middle East emerges further.
Crude and diesel prices in USD/b
European M1 refinery margins at record high.
Dated Brent and Oman crude are showing the way higher. The Brent crude M1 contract (October) gained another 0.75% yesterday. It traded in a range of $95.97-95.06/b and closed at $97.0/b. This morning it gains another 1.4% to $98.4/b. The Dubai M1 contract which is settled in November is showing the way at $105/b while Dated Brent settled ydy at $106.8/b. Brent crude M1 is now well above both the 50dma, 100dma and 200dma and is heading towards the 61.8% Fibo level of $100.55/b with $110.44/b next in line technical level thereafter.
Tight oil product markets are helping to drive crude oil prices higher as well. The strong push upwards for the Dated Brent price with ydy price reaching $106.8/b. Behind that drive upwards it very tight oil product markets with balance of month diesel refining margins in ARA now close to $90/b and gasoil cracks have been reported to top $100/b for the first time ever. That means extreme profitability for refineries. In response refineries here, there and everywhere want to get their hands on physical crude as quickly as possible. Convert it to oil products and sell the products into the ultra-tight spot oil product markets. Especially the diesel segment (Jet, diesel, gasoil). The economic incentive is huge for refineries.
This drive by refineries to process more crude in response to high refining margins, usually kicks in at much lower levels. Thereby normally transferring tightness from the oil product market over to the crude oil market. That normal mechanism hasn’t really worked properly in this crisis so far since there hasn’t been all that much spare refining capacity left as Ukraine is constantly damaging Russian refineries while the semi-closure of the SoH has sharply reduced oil product exports.
Stronger Chinese crude oil imports but higher oil product exports as well. Chines crude imports rose 6.2% MoM in August to 9.21 mb/d. That was still 2.9 mb/d below the 2025 average of 12.1 mb/d. But China’s net oil product exports rose to 0.91 mb/d in August which is the highest level since February 2023. As a result, Chinese imports of crude and oil products was still 3.5 mb/d below the 2025 average versus 3.6 mb/d in July. That is a strengthening of net imports of only 0.1 mb/d. Not much change in total. But it shows that Chinese refineries, probably with the blessing of government, are importing more crude and re-export these as oil products. That helps to transfer oil product tightness to crude oil tightness. India is doing the same. In July it exported about 1.4 mb/d of oil products and the highest since September.
The Iran-Oman deal on the SoH will give China a forceful political option. The Iran-Oman agreement over how to operate the SoH is just days away from finalization says Iran. The IMO and the US is said to have been involved in the process. Once it is agreed and published, China will have the option to sail a Chinese flagged VLCC through the SoH according to the new, official regulation of the SoH, load oil at Kharg Island and take it back to China. That is a very forceful option for China.
Oil and the SoH will for sure be a hot topic when Trump and Xi Jinping meets in the US on 25 September. And China will have some forceful bargaining chips to play versus Donald Trump regarding the SoH and oil.
ARA balance of month refining margins at close to $90/b giving refineries strong incentives to run hard converting crude to products = stronger refinery crude oil demand
Dated Brent and Oman crude (settled outside of the Persian Gulf) are showing the way upwards
Chinese crude (crude) and net crude and oil product imports (red) versus the 2025 average. Net crude and oil product imports was 3.5 mb/d below the 2025 average in August and 3.6 mb/d below in July. Almost the same. Stronger crude imports but also higher oil product exports
Chinese oil product exports rose to 0.91 mb/d in August and highest since Feb 2023. (numbers in reverse)
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