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SHB Råvarubrevet 26 oktober 2012

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Handelsbanken - Råvarubrevet inklusive ädelmetallerBättre data från Kina gläder

Det senaste rallyt i råvaror har främst skett i bas- och ädelmetaller. Den sista raketen var Kinas infrastrukturpaket den 7e september och QE3 i USA den 14e september. Därefter har åter oro för Europas skuldkris och sämre än väntat bolagsrapporter för Q3 tyngt marknaden. Dåliga nyheter har fört tillbaka metallerna till samma nivåer som före Kinas infrastrukturprogram. Så i princip hela QE3 effekten är nu utraderad.

Under de två senaste veckorna har dock data från Kina varit bra. Industriproduktionen har vänt upp, likaså huspriserna och försäljningen i konsumentledet. Investeringarna ökar återigen och HSBC:s preliminära inköpschefsindex för oktober visade på en ökning i onsdags. Vi tror därför att de senaste nedgångarna har gått för långt och att råvaror, men främst metaller åter kommer stiga under slutet av året. Nästa vecka (1:a nov kl 02.00) kommer Kinas officiella inköpschefsindex och vi tror att det är rimligt att indexet stiger upp över 50 som är gränsen för tillväxt i ekonomin. Ytterligare stöd kan också komma från USA:s inköpschefsindex som kommer samma dag som Kina men kl 15.00 svensk tid.

Handelsbankens råvaruindex med graf - 26 oktober 2012

Efter en ny vecka med blandade makrosignaler är vi någonstans mellan neutrala till positiva till risksentimentet. Riskrallyt drivet av QE3 förstärker makro, speciellt i USA men förväntningarna på den globala återhämningen har skruvats ner de senaste veckorna, kanske för mycket och det finns möjlighet till positiva överraskningar i närtid. Vi tror att valet i USA och ledarskiftet i Kina plus rapport säsongen håller uppe riskviljan de kommande veckorna. Valet i USA tar bort fiscal cliff diskussionen ur fokus vilket är positivt för riskviljan.

Basmetallerna har åter vänt uppåt efter sitt fall på 6,5 % från toppen i september, vi byter därför fot från neutral till något positivare igen. Råoljan fortsätter handlas i sitt intervall mellan 109 och 117 och vi tycker att fundamenta är väl balanserat och motiverar att vara neutral. Även el, som vi hoppas på inför vintern med nedpressade förväntningar ligger kvar i sitt intervall och vi väntar fortfarande på rätt köpläge. Håll dock el under bevakning, vintern närmar sig och därmed riskerna. El är volatil och när det vänder upp går det snabbt.

Basmetallerna

Basmetallerna – en besvikelse

För basmetallerna har veckan varit en besvikelse. Aluminium har klarat sig bäst, relativt sett, med en nedgång på 1.4 %. Bly fick däremot mer stryk, med en nedgång på hela 4.6 %. Koppar, zink och nickel har tappat mellan 2 och 4 %. Nedgången kan till viss del förklaras med en starkare dollar men även ett svagare risksentiment bidrog.

Ser vi specifikt till koppar så verkar nedgången mildrats av låga lagernivåer (de lägsta sedan april 2008) och en något ökad efterfrågan (upp 5.7% sedan augusti). Vi är fortsatt positiva till basmetaller eftersom vi ser förnyade investeringar från Kina samt en något bättre global konjunktur.

Diagram med graf över blypris och kopparpris - 2012

Efter en tid med fallande priser på basmetaller är vi åter positiva. Vi tror på: BASMET H

Ädelmetaller

Priset på platinum rasar

Guldet handlas i skrivande stund på 1714 USD/uns, vilket är marginellt lägre än veckans öppning. Platinum fortsätter sin väg ned, från toppnivån i början av oktober då platinum priset handlades på 1717 USD/uns har metallen tappat 9,3 % av sitt värde till 1559 USD/uns. Efter arbetarna vid platinumgruvan i Sydafrika har återvänt till arbete (efter en lönehöjning på hela 22 %) ser situationen på utbudssidan allt ljusare ut.

Däremot har guldgruvorna fortsatta problem och processen att avskeda 20 000 arbetare har startat. Gold Fields har avskedat 8 500 arbetare som inte återvänt från strejk trots ställt ultimatum och fler lär få samma besked vid andra guldgruvor om strejken fortsätter. Produktionsbortfallet på grund av strejkerna motsvarar nu 0,3 % av Sydafrikas BNP.

Platinaprisets utveckling uner 2012

Vi fortsätter att se centralbankernas nytryckta pengar och framförallt Feds QE3 operation som starkt skäl att vara investerad i ädelmetallerna. Konflikterna i Sydafrika fortsätter och ger stöd åt och guldpriset. Vi tror på: ADELMET H

Energi

Priset på både olja och el faller

Oljepriset (Brent) föll i början av veckan men återhämtade sig något mot slutet och handlas under fredag eftermiddag på 109 USD/fat,vilket är 1 % lägre än samma tid förra veckan. Mindre risktagande i väntan på det amerikanska valet och höga spanska räntor tynger oljan. Översvämningar och infrastuktur sabotage i Nigeria ger dock stöd. Shell meddelade force majeure för export på ca 0,4 miljoner fat/ dag i oktober. Amerikansk lagerdata visar på lageruppbyggnad, lager på råoljan kom in på på 5,9 miljoner fat mot förväntade 1,9 miljoner fat.

Elmarknaden och kvartalskontraktet Q1 2013 backar närmare 3 procent till 41.35 euro under veckan till följd av ett väderomslag samtidigt som både kol och tyska elpriser försvagas. Om vi börjar med vädret så försvinner en del kylan i slutet av 10-dagarsprognosen och vi ser ut att få temperaturer på ca 2 grader under normalt (att jämföra med 5 grader kallare under normalt i början av veckan) samtidigt som vi förväntas få någon TWh nederbörd över normalt. Energibalansen borde således förbättras något till en ca +8TWh (se nedan). Kol och CO2 backar med 2 respektive 3 procent vilket gör att brytpriset för kol, dvs marginalen för kolgenererad kraft, landar strax under 37 euro vilket naturligtvis också tynger utvecklingen denna vecka. Bör finnas utrymme för ytterligare någon euro på nedsidan om den våta och varma avslutningen ligger kvar på väderprognoserna.

Energibalansen och oljepriset (brent) - 2012

Oljan har sett allt svagare ut och vi fortsätter tycka att underliggande fundamenta är väl balanserad. El börjar se intressant ut inför vintern då riskerna på elmarknaden tilltar men vi låter sektorsynen vara neutral till positiv.

Livsmedel

Regn behövs i USA – inte i Europa

Terminspriser på vete är i stort sett oförändrade sedan förra veckan i både Chicago och Paris. Än behövs det mer regn på det nysådda höstvetet i USA, en del småskurar då och då lindrar dock situationen något. Även i Australien är det mestadels torrt för vetet, endast små regnmängder har fallit i de östra delarna av landet – längst i norr har skörden redan startat och avkastningsnivåerna sägs vara en klar besvikelse.

I Europa har det regnat lite väl mycket i de västra delarna, vilket fördröjer sådden i bland annat Frankrike och Storbritannien. I Frankrike är sådden nu bara klar till omkring 20 procent, att jämföra med 50 procent vid samma tid förra året – vilket lär leda till något mindre höstsådd areal. I Argentina är det fortfarande blött vilket försenar skördearbetet, bara omkring 4 procent av skörden bedöms nu vara klar. Helt klart kommer även kvalitetsnivån på vetet påverkas negativt av den blöta väderleken.

Väldigt mycket negativt är nu inprisat i dagens nivå och vi förväntar oss viss svårighet för priserna att nå så mycket högre. Långsiktigt är det svårt att se varför dagens nära rekordhöga priser ska hålla i sig – även om väldigt mycket kan hända till dess.

Veteprisets utveckling under 2012

Vi ser soja, majs och vete som klara säljcase där vi väntar oss prisfall före jul men senast till påsk. Vi tror på: LIVSMEDEL S H

Handelsbankens Råvaruindex

Handelsbankens råvaruindex 26 oktober 2012

Handelsbankens råvaruindex består av de underliggande indexen för respektive råvara. Vikterna är bestämda till hälften från värdet av global produktion och till hälften från likviditeten i terminskontrakten.

[box]SHB Råvarubrevet är producerat av Handelsbanken och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]

Ansvarsbegränsning

Detta material är producerat av Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) i fortsättningen kallad Handelsbanken. De som arbetar med innehållet är inte analytiker och materialet är inte oberoende investeringsanalys. Innehållet är uteslutande avsett för kunder i Sverige. Syftet är att ge en allmän information till Handelsbankens kunder och utgör inte ett personligt investeringsråd eller en personlig rekommendation. Informationen ska inte ensamt utgöra underlag för investeringsbeslut. Kunder bör inhämta råd från sina rådgivare och basera sina investeringsbeslut utifrån egen erfarenhet.

Informationen i materialet kan ändras och också avvika från de åsikter som uttrycks i oberoende investeringsanalyser från Handelsbanken. Informationen grundar sig på allmänt tillgänglig information och är hämtad från källor som bedöms som tillförlitliga, men riktigheten kan inte garanteras och informationen kan vara ofullständig eller nedkortad. Ingen del av förslaget får reproduceras eller distribueras till någon annan person utan att Handelsbanken dessförinnan lämnat sitt skriftliga medgivande. Handelsbanken ansvarar inte för att materialet används på ett sätt som strider mot förbudet mot vidarebefordran eller offentliggörs i strid med bankens regler.

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Analys

How renewable fuels are accelerating the decarbonisation of transport

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WisdomTree

On 16 November 2022, UK’s Royal Air Force (RAF) Voyager aircraft, the military variant of the Airbus A330, took to the skies for 90 minutes over Oxfordshire. What looked like a routine test flight in its outward appearance was ultimately deemed ground-breaking. Why? It was a world-first military transporter aircraft flight, and the first of any aircraft type in the UK to be completed using 100% sustainable jet fuel.  

Mobeen Tahir, Director, Macroeconomic Research & Tactical Solutions, WisdomTree
Mobeen Tahir, Director, Macroeconomic Research & Tactical Solutions, WisdomTree

What are renewable fuels?

Renewable hydrocarbon biofuels (also called green or drop-in biofuels) are fuels produced from biomass sources through a variety of biological, thermal, and chemical processes. These products are chemically identical to petroleum gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel.

In other words, renewable fuels are sources of energy chemically identical to fossil fuels but produced from domestic, commercial, or agricultural waste (see Figure 1 below).

Figure 1: Converting waste into energy

Waste types and refinery output

Why the excitement?

Renewable fuels, like renewable diesel and sustainable jet fuel, can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by around 80-90% compared to fossil fuels. And because they burn much cleaner, engine filters remain cleaner for longer reducing the need for maintenance. Furthermore, given used cooking oil, vegetable oil, processing waste, and animal fat waste are used as inputs, the production of these fuels reduces biowaste, thereby cutting emissions from landfills.

This makes renewable fuels a key component of the circular economy. Humans have largely operated on the linear model historically when it comes to utilising natural resources. The circular model, in contrast, is much less wasteful and seeks to recycle as much as possible (see Figure 2 below).

Figure 2: The Circular Economy

Circular economy
Source: WisdomTree, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2023

The most exciting thing about renewable fuels is the immediacy with which they can make an impact. The reason why they are referred to as drop-in fuels is that they can replace fossil fuels in internal combustion engines with little or no modification required. So, if supply was abundant enough, forms of transport which cannot be electrified easily like heavy duty trucks, ships, and aeroplanes can be switched across to renewable fuels making a significant improvement to the environmental footprint. According to BP, “A return flight between London and San Francisco has a carbon footprint per economy ticket of nearly 1 tonne of CO2 equivalent. With the aviation industry expected to double to over 8 billion passengers by 2050, it is essential that we act to reduce aviation’s carbon emissions.”

The challenge

Renewable fuels or biofuels are still in their infancy. This means the obvious hurdle to overcome is cost competitiveness with fossil fuels. Cost estimates vary, but figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) provide a useful sense for the ballpark. In May 2022, IATA stated that the average worldwide price of jet fuel is about $4.15 per gallon compared to the US average price of a gallon of sustainable aviation fuel, which is about $8.67.

So, roughly double the price of the incumbent polluting technology. This is not a bad starting point at all. Considering how rapidly the cost of energy storage in batteries has fallen in the last decade, renewable fuels could become competitive quite soon if sufficient investment is made and economies of scale are achieved. IATA also predicts that renewable fuels could make up 2% of all aviation fuels by 2025, which could become a tipping point in their competitiveness.

Businesses are acting

Businesses pursuing their own net zero targets have already started exploring renewable fuels to minimise their waste. Darling Ingredients Inc, which produces its trademark Diamond Green Diesel from recycled animal fats, inedible corn oil, and used cooking oil, was chosen by fast food chain Chick-fil-A in March 2022 to turn its used cooking oil into clean transportation fuel.

Similarly, McDonald’s entered into a partnership with Neste Corporation in 2020 to convert its used vegetable oil into renewable diesel and fuel the trucks that make deliveries to its restaurants. According to TortoiseEcofin, both Darling Ingredients and Neste have a net negative carbon footprint given emissions produced by these businesses are lower that the emissions avoided because of their renewable fuels.

A final word

Renewable fuels alone will not tackle climate change. No single solution can. But they can help us make meaningful progress. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasises how crucial it is for the world to halve its greenhouse gas emissions this decade to at least have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5oC. This means that solutions with an immediate effect have an important role to play. Biofuels can cut emissions from waste in landfills and provide much cleaner alternatives to fossil fuels to help accelerate the world’s decarbonisation efforts. They don’t require different engines to be of use. They just need funding to reach scale.

Mobeen Tahir, Director, Macroeconomic Research & Tactical Solutions, WisdomTree

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Analys

SEB Metals Weekly: China Covid exit is bullish for metals

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

China Covid exit is bullish for metals

Softer inflation, slight macro-optimism, and China taking a rapid exit from Covid restrictions. Markets have become more optimistic. Inflation indices have eased and that has created some hopes that central banks won’t lift interest to a level that will kill the economy in 2023. Natural gas prices in Europe have fallen sharply. This has suddenly reduced energy-inflationary pressure and removed the direst downside economic risks for the region. But general market optimism is far from super-strong yet. The S&P 500 index has only gained 1.9% since our previous forecast on 1 Nov 2021, and oil prices are down nearly 10% in a reflection of concerns for global growth. China has however removed all Covid-restrictions almost overnight. It is now set to move out of its three years of Covid-19 isolation and lockdowns at record speed. Industrial metals are up 20% and the Hong Kong equity index is up 40% as a result (since 1 Nov-22). China’s sudden and rapid Covid-19 exit is plain and simply bullish for the Chinese economy to the point that mobility indices are already rebounding quickly. SEB’s general view is that inflation impulses will fade quickly. No need then for central banks across the world to kill the global economy with further extreme rate hikes. These developments have removed much of the downside price risks for metals in 2023 and we have to a large degree shifted our 2024 forecast to 2023.

Lower transparency, more geopolitics, more borders, and higher prices and exponential spikes. The first decade of this century was about emerging markets, the BRICs, the commodity price boom, the commodity investment boom, and free markets with free flow of commodities and labor with China and Russia hand in hand with western countries walking towards the future. High capex spending in the first decade led to plentiful supply and low prices for commodities from 2011 to 2020. A world of plenty, friends everywhere, free flow of everything, and no need to worry. The coming decade will likely be very different. Supply growth will struggle due to mediocre capex spending over the past 10 years. Prices will on average be significantly higher. There will be frequent exponential price spikes whenever demand hits supply barriers. Price transparency will be significantly reduced due to borders, taxes, sanctions, geopolitical alignments, and carbon intensities. Prices will be much less homogenous. Aluminium will no longer be just one price and one quality. Who made it, where was it made, where will it be consumed and what the carbon content will create a range of prices. Same for most other metals.

Copper: Struggling supply and China revival propel copper prices higher. Unrest in Peru is creating significant supply risks for copper as the country accounts for 10% of the global supply. Chile accounts for 27% of global production. Production there is disappointing with Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper mining company, struggling to hit production targets. The Cobre Panama mine in Panama is at risk of being closed over a tax dispute between Quantum and the government. Cobre Panama is one of the biggest new mines globally over the past 10 years. The rapid exit from Covid restrictions in China is bullish for the Chinese economy and thus for copper demand and it has helped to propel prices higher along with the mentioned supply issues. The Chinese property market will continue to struggle, and it normally accounts for 20% of global copper demand while China accounted for 55% of global copper demand in 2021. While China is no longer prioritizing the housing market it is full speed ahead for solar, wind, EVs, and electrification in general. So, weakening Chinese copper demand from housing will likely be replaced by the new prioritized growth sectors. Global supply growth is likely going to be muted in the decade to come while demand growth will be somewhere between a normal 3% pa. to a strong 4% pa. to a very strong 5% pa. Copper prices will be high, and demand will hit the supply barrier repeatedly with exponential spikes as the world is working hard to accelerate the energy transition. Copper prices could easily spike to USD 15-16,000/ton nearest years.

Nickel: Tight high-quality nickel market but a surplus for a low-quality nickel. Nickel production is growing aggressively in Indonesia. The country is projected to account for 60-70% of global supply in 2030. This will become a huge and extremely concentrated geopolitical risk for the world’s consumers of nickel. Indonesia has an abundance of low-grade C2 nickel. The challenge is to convert low-quality C2 nickel to high-quality C1. We are set for a surplus of C2 nickel but the market for C1 nickel will depend strongly on the conversion capacity for C2 to C1. Low price transparency will also help to send prices flying between USD 20,000/ton and USD 30,000/ton. Strong growth in nickel production in Indonesia should initially call for prices down to USD 20,000/ton. But Indonesia is a price setter. It will account for 50% of global supply in 2023. It doesn’t make sense for Indonesia to kill the nickel price. If the nickel price drops, then Indonesia could quickly regulate supply. There should be a premium to nickel due to this. As a result, we expect the nickel price to average USD 24,000/ton in 2023. C2 to C1 conversion capacity may be strained and there should also be a monopoly premium due to the size of Indonesia. Converting C2 to C1 is however extremely carbon intensive and that could be an increasing issue in the years to come.

Zinc: Super-tight global market. European LME inventories are ZERO and zinc smelters there are still closed. European zinc smelters account for 16% of global zinc smelter capacity. Most of this was closed over the past year due to extremely high energy prices. European LME zinc stockpiles are now down to a stunning zero! The global zinc market is extremely tight. Reopening of European zinc smelting seems unlikely in H1-23 with a continued super-tight market as a result both in Europe and globally.

Aluminium: Price likely to be in the range of USD 2400 – 3200/ton and line with coal prices in China. Aluminium prices have historically been tightly tied to the price of coal. But coal prices have been all over the place since the start of 2021 with huge price differences between Amsterdam, Australia, and domestic Chinese coal prices which are now largely state-controlled. China banning imports of Australian coal, the Chinese energy crisis in 2021, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are ingredients here. This sent aluminium prices flying high and low. Coal prices in China today imply a price of aluminium between USD 2400/ton and 3150/ton with the LME 3mth aluminium price nicely in between at USD 2590/ton. The global coal market should now become more orderly as China now again is accepting Australian coal. Energy costs have fallen sharply in Europe and some producers in the Netherlands have talked about possible restarts of production. China is likely to reduce its exports of primary aluminium. Energy security of supply is high on the agenda in China, and it makes no sense to emit lots of CO2 in China and indirectly export energy in the form of primary aluminium. Growth in non-China aluminium demand in the years to come will have to be covered by non-China producers which have the potential to force prices higher and away from coal as the price driver. While LME has one price for the 3mth aluminium price we’ll likely get larger and larger price differences across the world in the form of possibly extreme price premiums for example in the EU and the US.

SEB Commodities price outlook
Source: SEB Markets – Commodities. Historical data: Bloomberg 
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Solid demand growth and strained supply to push Brent above USD 100/b

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Brent crude had a strong end of the year as it traded at the highest level since 1 December. It is a slow start to the new year due to bank holidays and Dated Brent trades close to USD 85/b. It averaged USD 99.9/b in 2022. We expect it to average more than USD 100/b on average for the coming year amid strained supply and rebounding demand. Chinese oil demand is set to recover strongly along with re-openings while non-OECD will continue to move higher. At the moment oil looks absurdly cheap as it is cheaper than natural gas in both EU and Japan and also cheaper than coal in Australia.

Some price strength at the end of the year. The Dated Brent crude oil price index gained 2.3% on Friday with a close at USD 84.97/b. It was the highest close since 1 December. This morning it is trading slightly lower at USD 84.8/b but the market is basically void of action due to bank holidays.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Gloom and doom but IEA, OPEC and US EIA project global crude oil demand to rise between 1 m b/d and 2.2 m b/d YoY in 2023. They also expect call-on-OPEC to rise between 0.3 m b/d and 1.0 m b/d. The US EIA projects demand to increase 1 m b/d in 2023 on the back of a growth of 1.3 m b/d in non-OECD where demand in India rises by 0.2 m b/d and China by 0.6 m b/d. In China this is of course to a large degree due to re-opening after Covid-19 lock-downs. But it is still a good reminder of the low base of oil demand in non-OECD versus OECD. India last year consumed 5 m b/d which only amounts to 1.3 b/capita/year versus a world average of 4.5  b/capita/year and European demand of 10 b/capita/year. Even China is still below the world average as its demand in 2022 stood at 15.2 m b/d or 4.0 b/capita/yr. Non-OECD oil demand thus still has a long way to go in terms of oil demand and that is probably one of the things we’ll be reminded of in 2023 as Covid-19 lock-downs disappear entirely.

Solid demand growth in the face of strained supply. Important to remember is that the world has lost a huge amount of fossil supply from Russia due to the war in Ukraine. First in terms of natural gas where supply to the EU and thus to the world has declined by some 2.5 m boe/d versus pre-war levels. Secondly in terms of crude and products. The latter is of course a constant guessing game in terms of how much Russian crude and product exports has declined. The US EIA however projects that crude oil production in the Former Soviet Union will be down 2 m b/d in 2023 versus pre-Covid levels and down 1.3 m b/d YoY from 2022 to 2023. We are thus talking up to 4.5 m boe/d of lost supply from Russia/FSU. That is a huge loss. It is the reason why coal prices are still trading at USD 200 – 400/ton versus normal USD 85/ton as coal is an alternative to very expensive natural gas.

Overall for 2023 we are looking at a market where we’ll have huge losses in supply of fossil energy supply from Russia while demand for oil is set to rebound solidly (+1.0 – 2.2 m b/d) along with steady demand growth in non-OECD plus a jump in demand from China due to Covid-19 reopening. Need for oil from OPEC is set to rise by up to 1.0 m b/d YoY while the group’s spare capacity is close to exhausted.

We expect Brent crude to average more than USD 100/b in 2023. Despite all the macro economic gloom and doom due to inflation and rising interest rates we cannot help having a positive view for crude oil prices for the year to come due to the above reasons. The Dated Brent crude oil price index averaged USD 99.9/b in 2022. We think Brent crude will average more than USD 100/b in 2023. Oil is today absurdly cheap at USD 85/b. It is cheaper than both coal in Australia and natural gas both in Japan and the EU. This is something you hardly ever see. The energy market will work hard to consume more what is cheap (oil) and less of what is expensive (nat gas and coal).

Latest forecasts by IEA, OPEC and US EIA for oil demand growth and call-on-OPEC YoY for 2023. Solid demand growth and rising need for oil from OPEC. 

Latest forecasts by IEA, OPEC and US EIA for oil demand growth and call-on-OPEC YoY for 2023.
Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC, SEB graph

Oil demand projections from the main agencies and estimated call-on-OPEC. More demand and higher need for oil from OPEC

Oil demand projections
Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC, SEB table

EIA STEO projected change in oil demand for different countries and regions YoY to 2023

EIA STEO projected change in oil demand for different countries and regions YoY to 2023
Source: US EIA, SEB graph

US EIA Dec STEO forecast for FSU oil production. Solid decline projected for 2023.

US EIA Dec STEO forecast for FSU oil production. Solid decline projected for 2023.
Source: US EIA data and projection. SEB graph

US commercial crude and product stocks still below normal

US commercial crude and product stocks still below normal
Source: US EIA, SEB graph

Total US crude and product stocks including SPR. Declining, declining, declining.

Total US crude and product stocks including SPR. Declining, declining, declining.
Source: US EIA, SEB graph

US crude and product inventories both excluding and including Strategic Petroleum Reserves

US crude and product inventories both excluding and including Strategic Petroleum Reserves

US oil sales from US SPR is now coming to an end. Will make the market feel much tighter as it really is.

US oil sales from US SPR is now coming to an end. Will make the market feel much tighter as it really is.
Source: US EIA, SEB graph

Brent crude oil is absurdly cheap as it today trades below both Australian coal and natural gas in both Japan and the EU. Coal and natural gas prices should trade lower while oil should trade higher.

Source: Blbrg data, SEB graph

EU diesel prices versus natural gas prices. Could start to move towards a more natural price-balance in terms of substitution.

EU diesel prices versus natural gas prices. Could start to move towards a more natural price-balance in terms of substitution.
Source: Blbrg data, SEB graph and calculations
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