Analys
SHB Råvarubrevet 26 april 2013

Råvaror allmänt
Makrotunga veckor – Råvarorna vänder upp
Denna vecka började med en ny kalldusch, råvarunegativ makrodata. Nu i form av preliminära inköpschefssiffror som från Kina, USA och Tyskland var sämre än väntat. I sällskap av mer dålig makrodata så bidrog dock dataskörden så småningom till att öka förväntningarna på att ECB ska sänka räntan den 2:a maj och det fick i sin tur råvarupriserna att rekylera på bred front under sista delen av veckan. Centralbanksstödet fortsätter, nu med Bank of Japan i förarsätet och vi tror att ECB kommer att haka på inom kort.
Vi tycker generellt att råvarunedgången har varit överdriven givet hur makrodata har utvecklat sig. Flera råvarusektorer är klart köpvärda. Vi väntar dock på att ekonomer och analytiker ska hinna ta till sig den sämre dataskörden och därmed bidra till att förväntansbilden sänks innan vi tror att den stora rekylen uppåt kommer.
Basmetallerna
Stark vecka för basmetallerna
Basmetallerna har blivit väldigt tekniskt handlade i den negativa miljön. Vi har samlat ett antal indikatorer från den fysiska marknaden som ser ganska bra ut och vi tror att basmetaller är den råvarusektor som har störst potential att studsa upp efter vårens ras. Ännu vågar vi dock inte slå på stora trumman utan avvaktar ytterligare dålig makrodata som vi tror ligger i luften.
Basmetallerna har visat på styrka under veckan som gått. Koppar vände på 6854, före senaste årens botten under 2011 på 6635. Aluminium nådde 30-dagars högsta men även nickel och zink har visat på en klar vändning.
Trots fortsatt svag makromiljö och fortsatt risk på nedsidan ser vi ändå basmetaller som köpvärda på dessa nivåer. Vi tror på: LONG BASMET H
Ädelmetaller
Guldet rekylerar upp, har det vänt nu?
Guldet har – tillsammans med de flesta råvaror – rekylerat upp denna vecka. Rekylen har varit ganska kraftig, över 4 % upp sedan förra fredagen, eller 8 % från botten måndagen den 15 april. Det är inget konstigt i det, då guldet föll rekordsnabbt för två veckor sedan, och vi står alltjämt 13 % lägre än början på året. Silver, guldets sprallige lillebror, har också studsat upp, men ligger över 20 % ner på året trots detta. Köpläge eller säljläge?
Vi tror fortfarande att guldets glans falnat en hel del, det ska studsa lite efter ett så kraftigt fall vi såg för två veckor sedan, och nu hör vi tal om att centralbanker världen över köpt guld senaste veckan. Det är värt att påminna om att centralbanker som har bestämmelser om hur stor andel av reserverna som ska ligga i guld de facto MÅSTE köpa guld när det har fallit så kraftigt, annars minskar guldets andel i reserven. Omvänt måste de sälja om priset stiger.
Guldets huvudproblem kvarstår, alla som köper gör det för att sälja dyrare, alltså även världens centralbanker. Centralbankerna har dock lyxen att slippa sälja när priset faller. Åtminstone tills någon säger att man ska minska sin andel guld i reserven.
Köp inte guld. För den som är tekniskt intresserad kan nämnas att rekylen nu vände på exakt 61,8 % retracement, en viktig s.k. Fibonacci-nivå.
Trots det största raset på 30 år tror vi att förtroendet för guld håller på urholkas och att trenden nedåt fortsätter. Vi tror på: SHRT GULD H
Energi
Brent oljan över 100 dollar igen
Priset på el har under veckan fortsatt att stiga efter nedgången från föregående vecka. Variationer i väderprognoser och nyheter kring utsläppsrätterna har varit i fokus denna vecka. På väderfronten gav prognoser med torrare och kallare väder stöd åt elpriset veckans första dagar. Nya prognoser med mer nederbörd än normalt fick priset att falla tillbaka något. För utsläppsrätterna verkar det som de blir en ny omröstning i slutet på juli om den s.k. backloadingplanen. Under veckan har det även auktionerats ut hela 25 miljoner rätter (!), vilket marknaden ändå klarat av förhållandevis bra. Veckan bjöd även på besked om att ministerrådet följer parlamentets beslut att integrera flygtrafik in och ur EU i systemet för handel med utsläppsrätter.
Oljepriset har också studsat under veckan. OPEC har dragit ner produktionen under året och bidrar till att stabilisera priset. Q2 är säsongsmässigt en svag period då många raffinaderier går in i underhåll efter mellan vintern och sommarens högproduktion. Under hösten har Nordsjön har också stabiliserat produktionen efter de låga nivåerna.
OPEC har tidigare aktivt och framgångsrikt försvarat prismålet 100-110 USD och vi väntar oss handling snarare än besked från kartellen inom kort. Konfliken mellan Israel och Iran är nästa skäl att förvänta sig högre oljepriser under H2. Vi tror på: LONG OLJA H
Livsmedel
Bättre väder för sådden i USA
Priserna på majs i Chicago har gått ned under veckan, delvis som följd av förbättrad väderlek för den amerikanska majssådden. Fortfarande faller en del småskurar men temperaturen har stigit och den relativt sena sådden kan nu öka i takt, liknande förhållanden ser ut att råda åtminstone en bit in i nästa vecka. Än finns det gott om tid kvar och inga skäl att tro på annat än en väldigt stark återhämtning för den amerikanska majsproduktionen efter förra årets torka. Globala majsproduktionen för säsongen 2013/14 uppskattar International Grains Council, IGC, till 939 miljoner ton, att jämföra med 851 miljoner ton innevarande säsong – upp drygt 10 procent.
Priserna på sojabönor i Chicago noteras ned sedan förra veckan. I dagsläget är det svårt att tro på annat än en ökad sojaproduktion i USA för nästa säsong, vilket tillsammans med ökad produktion även i andra delar av världen bör ge press nedåt på priset längre fram på året. International Grains Council, IGC, upp skattar kommande säsongs globala sojaskörd till 265 miljoner ton, drygt 10 procent upp från innevarande säsong. Även bättre väder för den fortsatta sojasådden i USA, tillsammans med vikande amerikanska exportsiffror, har gett press nedåt på priset.
Då priserna har på de stora jordbruksråvarorna soja, majs och vete har fallit tillbaka till nivåer före torkan i USA, tror vi att en nedsida är begränsad på kort sikt och därför är vi neutrala till utvecklingen för denna sektor.
Handelsbankens Råvaruindex

Handelsbankens råvaruindex består av de underliggande indexen för respektive råvara. Vikterna är bestämda till hälften från värdet av global produktion och till hälften från likviditeten i terminskontrakten.
[box]SHB Råvarubrevet är producerat av Handelsbanken och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]
Ansvarsbegränsning
Detta material är producerat av Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) i fortsättningen kallad Handelsbanken. De som arbetar med innehållet är inte analytiker och materialet är inte oberoende investeringsanalys. Innehållet är uteslutande avsett för kunder i Sverige. Syftet är att ge en allmän information till Handelsbankens kunder och utgör inte ett personligt investeringsråd eller en personlig rekommendation. Informationen ska inte ensamt utgöra underlag för investeringsbeslut. Kunder bör inhämta råd från sina rådgivare och basera sina investeringsbeslut utifrån egen erfarenhet.
Informationen i materialet kan ändras och också avvika från de åsikter som uttrycks i oberoende investeringsanalyser från Handelsbanken. Informationen grundar sig på allmänt tillgänglig information och är hämtad från källor som bedöms som tillförlitliga, men riktigheten kan inte garanteras och informationen kan vara ofullständig eller nedkortad. Ingen del av förslaget får reproduceras eller distribueras till någon annan person utan att Handelsbanken dessförinnan lämnat sitt skriftliga medgivande. Handelsbanken ansvarar inte för att materialet används på ett sätt som strider mot förbudet mot vidarebefordran eller offentliggörs i strid med bankens regler.
Analys
A muted price reaction. Market looks relaxed, but it is still on edge waiting for what Iran will do

Brent crossed the 80-line this morning but quickly fell back assigning limited probability for Iran choosing to close the Strait of Hormuz. Brent traded in a range of USD 70.56 – 79.04/b last week as the market fluctuated between ”Iran wants a deal” and ”US is about to attack Iran”. At the end of the week though, Donald Trump managed to convince markets (and probably also Iran) that he would make a decision within two weeks. I.e. no imminent attack. Previously when when he has talked about ”making a decision within two weeks” he has often ended up doing nothing in the end. The oil market relaxed as a result and the week ended at USD 77.01/b which is just USD 6/b above the year to date average of USD 71/b.

Brent jumped to USD 81.4/b this morning, the highest since mid-January, but then quickly fell back to a current price of USD 78.2/b which is only up 1.5% versus the close on Friday. As such the market is pricing a fairly low probability that Iran will actually close the Strait of Hormuz. Probably because it will hurt Iranian oil exports as well as the global oil market.
It was however all smoke and mirrors. Deception. The US attacked Iran on Saturday. The attack involved 125 warplanes, submarines and surface warships and 14 bunker buster bombs were dropped on Iranian nuclear sites including Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. In response the Iranian Parliament voted in support of closing the Strait of Hormuz where some 17 mb of crude and products is transported to the global market every day plus significant volumes of LNG. This is however merely an advise to the Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council which sits with the final and actual decision.
No supply of oil is lost yet. It is about the risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz or not. So far not a single drop of oil supply has been lost to the global market. The price at the moment is all about the assessed risk of loss of supply. Will Iran choose to choke of the Strait of Hormuz or not? That is the big question. It would be painful for US consumers, for Donald Trump’s voter base, for the global economy but also for Iran and its population which relies on oil exports and income from selling oil out of that Strait as well. As such it is not a no-brainer choice for Iran to close the Strait for oil exports. And looking at the il price this morning it is clear that the oil market doesn’t assign a very high probability of it happening. It is however probably well within the capability of Iran to close the Strait off with rockets, mines, air-drones and possibly sea-drones. Just look at how Ukraine has been able to control and damage the Russian Black Sea fleet.
What to do about the highly enriched uranium which has gone missing? While the US and Israel can celebrate their destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities they are also scratching their heads over what to do with the lost Iranian nuclear material. Iran had 408 kg of highly enriched uranium (IAEA). Almost weapons grade. Enough for some 10 nuclear warheads. It seems to have been transported out of Fordow before the attack this weekend.
The market is still on edge. USD 80-something/b seems sensible while we wait. The oil market reaction to this weekend’s events is very muted so far. The market is still on edge awaiting what Iran will do. Because Iran will do something. But what and when? An oil price of 80-something seems like a sensible level until something do happen.
Analys
Very relaxed at USD 75/b. Risk barometer will likely fluctuate to higher levels with Brent into the 80ies or higher coming 2-3 weeks

Brent rallied 12% last week. But closed the week below USD 75/b and it is still there. Very relaxed. Brent crude rallied 12% to USD 78.5/b in the early hours of Friday as Israel attacked Iran. The highest level since 27 January this year. The level didn’t hold and Brent closed the day at USD 74.23/b which was up 5.7% on the day and 11.7% on the week. On Friday it was still very unclear how extensive and lasting this war between Iran and Israel would be. Energy assets in Iran had still not been touched and Iran had not targeted other Middle East countries’ energy assets or US military bases in the region. As such, the Brent crude closed the week comfortably at around USD 75/b. Which one cannot argue is very much of a stressed price level.

Israel is targeting Iran’s domestic energy infrastructure. Not its energy export facilities. For now. Over the weekend Israel has widened its targets to include fuel depots in Tehran, refineries supplying Iran domestically and also a processing plant at Iran’s South Pars gas field – the world’s largest. So far it appears that Israel has refrained from hurting Iranian oil and gas export facilities. Maybe adhering to Trump’s whish of low oil prices. Trump has been begging for a lower oil price. Would be very frustrating for him if Israel started to blow up Iran’s export facilities. Focus instead looks to be on Iran’s domestic energy supply and infrastructure. To weaken and disable the operations of Iran as a country while leaving Iran’s energy export facilities intact for now at least. That is probably why Brent crude this morning is only trading at USD 74.9/b with little change from Friday. An incredible relaxed price level given what is going on in the Middle East.
Israel seems to try to do to Iran what Israel recently did to Lebanon. Israel now seems to have close to total control of the Iranian air space. So called ”Air Supremacy” something which is rarely achieved according to Phillips P. O’Brian (see comment on this below with link). This is giving Israel close to total freedom in the airspace over Iran. Israel now seems to try to do to Iran what Israel recently did to Lebanon. Take out military and political commanders. Take out the air defenses. Then grind the rest of its defensive capacities to the ground over some time.
Continuous pressure. No rest. No letting up for several weeks seems likely. The current situation is a very rare opportunity for Israel to attack Iran with full force. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian strongholds in Syria, are all severely weakened or disabled. And now also Air Supremacy of the airspace over Iran. It is natural to assume that Israel will not let this opportunity pass. As such it will likely continue with full force over several weeks to come, at least, with Israel grinding down the rest of Iran’s defensive capabilities and domestic energy supply facilities as far as possible. Continuous pressure. No rest. No letting up.
What to do with Fordow? Will Iran jump to weapons grade uranium? The big question is of course Iran’s nuclear facilities. Natanz with 16,000 enrichment centrifuges was destroyed by Israel on Friday. It was only maximum 20 meters below ground. It was where Iran had mass enrichment to low enrichment levels. Fordow is a completely different thing. It is 500 meters deep under a mountain. It is where enrichment towards weapons grade Uranium takes place. Iran today has 408 kg of highly enriched uranium (IAEA) which can be enriched to weapons grade. It is assumed that Iran will only need 2-3 days to make 25 kg of weapons grade uranium and three weeks to make enough for 9 nuclear warheads. How Israel decides to deal with Fordow is the big question. Ground forces? Help from the US?
Also, if Iran is pushed to the end of the line, then it might decide to enrich to weapons grade which again will lead to a cascade of consequences.
Brent is extremely relaxed at USD 75/b. But at times over coming 2-3 weeks the risk barometer will likely move higher with Brent moving into the 80ies or higher. The oil price today is extremely relaxed with the whole thing. Lots of OPEC+ spare capacity allows loss of Iranian oil exports. Israeli focus on Iran’s domestic energy systems rather than on its exports facilities is also soothing the market. But at times over the coming two, three weeks the risk barometer will likely move significantly higher as it might seem like the situation in the Middle East may move out of control. So Brent into the 80ies or higher seems highly likely in the weeks to come. At times at least. And if it all falls apart, the oil price will of course move well above 100.
Phillips P. OBrien on ”Air Supremacy” (embedded link): Air power historian Philip Meilinger: ”Air Superiority is defined as being able to conduct air operations “without prohibitive interference by the opposing force.” Air Supremacy goes further, wherein the opposing air force is incapable of effective interference.”
Thus, air supremacy is an entirely different beast from air superiority. It occurs when one power basically controls the skies over an enemy, and can operate practically anywhere/time that it wants without much fear of enemy interference in its operations.
The US had Air Supremacy over Germany in the second World War, but only at the very end when it was close to over. It only had Air Superiority in the Vietnam war, but not Supremacy. During Desert Storm in 1990-1991 however it did have Supremacy with devastating consequences for the enemy. (last paragraph is a condensed summary).
Analys
Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b to make cheating unprofitable for Kazakhstan

Brent jumping 2.4% as OPEC+ lifts quota by ”only” 411 kb/d in July. Brent crude is jumping 2.4% this morning to USD 64.3/b following the decision by OPEC+ this weekend to lift the production cap of ”Voluntary 8” (V8) by 411 kb/d in July and not more as was feared going into the weekend. The motivation for the triple hikes of 411 kb/d in May and June and now also in July has been a bit unclear: 1) Cheating by Kazakhstan and Iraq, 2) Muhammed bin Salman listening to Donald Trump for more oil and a lower oil price in exchange for weapons deals and political alignments in the Middle East and lastly 3) Higher supply to meet higher demand for oil this summer. The argument that they are taking back market share was already decided in the original plan of unwinding the 2.2 mb/d of V8 voluntary cuts by the end of 2026. The surprise has been the unexpected speed with monthly increases of 3×137 kb/d/mth rather than just 137 kb/d monthly steps.

No surplus yet. Time-spreads tightened last week. US inventories fell the week before last. In support of point 3) above it is worth noting that the Brent crude oil front-end backwardation strengthened last week (sign of tightness) even when the market was fearing for a production hike of more than 411 kb/d for July. US crude, diesel and gasoline stocks fell the week before last with overall commercial stocks falling 0.7 mb versus a normal rise this time of year of 3-6 mb per week. So surplus is not here yet. And more oil from OPEC+ is welcomed by consumers.
Saudi Arabia calling the shots with Russia objecting. This weekend however we got to know a little bit more. Saudi Arabia was predominantly calling the shots and decided the outcome. Russia together with Oman and Algeria opposed the hike in July and instead argued for zero increase. What this alures to in our view is that it is probably the cheating by Kazakhstan and Iraq which is at the heart of the unexpectedly fast monthly increases. Saudi Arabia cannot allow it to be profitable for the individual members to cheat. And especially so when Kazakhstan explicitly and blatantly rejects its quota obligation stating that they have no plans of cutting production from 1.77 mb/d to 1.47 mb/d. And when not even Russia is able to whip Kazakhstan into line, then the whole V8 project is kind of over.
Is it simply a decision by Saudi Arabia to unwind faster altogether? What is still puzzling though is that despite the three monthly hikes of 411 kb/d, the revival of the 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts is still kind of orderly. Saudi Arabia could have just abandoned the whole V8 project from one month to the next. But we have seen no explicit communication that the plan of reviving the cuts by the end of 2026 has been abandoned. It may be that it is simply a general change of mind by Saudi Arabia where the new view is that production cuts altogether needs to be unwinded sooner rather than later. For Saudi Arabia it means getting its production back up to 10 mb/d. That implies first unwinding the 2.2 mb/d and then the next 1.6 mb/d.
Brent would likely crash with a fast unwind of 2.2 + 1.6 mb/d by year end. If Saudi Arabia has decided on a fast unwind it would meant that the group would lift the quotas by 411 kb/d both in August and in September. It would then basically be done with the 2.2 mb/d revival. Thereafter directly embark on reviving the remaining 1.6 mb/d. That would imply a very sad end of the year for the oil price. It would then probably crash in Q4-25. But it is far from clear that this is where we are heading.
Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b or lower to make it unprofitable for Kazakhstan to cheat. To make it unprofitable for Kazakhstan to cheat. Kazakhstan is currently producing 1.77 mb/d versus its quota which before the hikes stood at 1.47 kb/d. If they had cut back to the quota level they might have gotten USD 70/b or USD 103/day. Instead they choose to keep production at 1.77 mb/d. For Saudi Arabia to make it a loss-making business for Kazakhstan to cheat the oil price needs to fall below USD 58/b ( 103/1.77).
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