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Gold expected to bounce back



Commerzbank commodities research

Commerzbank commoditiesGold – Daily Chart

Interim low was made at 1180.04; is still expected to bounce back to the 1301.12/1321.50 zone.

  • In June the gold price has aggressively dropped to below the 2009 peak at 1227.20 to 1180.04, before bouncing back to 1267.80 in early July before dropping to 1208.08 last week.
  • Provided that this low underpins, we still believe that an interim low is in place and that a corrective move higher towards the 1321.50 April low is currently underway.
  • Were the current July low at 1280.08 and the 1180.04 June low to give way, however, the 1162.45/1145.25 significant support zone would be targeted. It contains the January and March 2010 highs, July 2010 low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008-11 up trend.
  • Good resistance can now be seen between the 1321.50 April low and the 1338.05 May trough.
  • We will retain our medium term bearish forecast while the gold price remains below the 1424.05 June high.

Gold price 1 week and month view

Gold price daily chart from Commerzbank

Gold – Weekly Chart

Dropped to levels last seen in August 2010 but is in the process of bouncing back.

Gold weekly chart bounce back

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