Analys
SHB Tradingcase LTRO2 27 februari 2012
Stimulans från ECB 29/2
Positioner för ECB:s nästa repa på onsdag:
Köp KOPPAR H eller BULL KOPPAR H
Köp BASMET H eller BULL BASMETH
Koppar har reagerat starkt på centralbankers stimulans
”Don´t fight the Fed” (eller andra centralbanker)
Att inte gå emot den amerikanska centralbanken är en gammal devis som vi nu översätter till den europeiska centralbanken. Mer stimulans betyder mer pengar som jagar samma tillgångar. På råvarumarknaden kommer det att speciellt gynna de råvaror som är mycket finansiellt handlade. Olja är världens största råvara men koppar är det man ska satsa på nu.
Den 29 februari kl 11:15 kommer ECB med en andra 3-års repa. Den första repan i december hade en imponerande storlek, 489 mdr, och fick en imponerande effekt på riskhandlade tillgångar på de finansiella marknaderna. I grafen ovan ses hur världsindex för börsen och koppar handlats hand i hand på stimulans från centralbanker sedan våren 2009. I perioder utan stimulans har sedan korrektioner kommit när fokus åter varit den skuldtyngda realekonomin. I mars förväntar vi oss mer av den stigande trend som vi sett sedan första repan (LTRO1) i december. All erfarenhet talar för att även en väl känd manöver som denna stimulansåtgärd ger positiva marknadsrörelser.
Olja har också handlats efter vad centralbankerna gör men har sedan kriget i Libyen frikopplats och främst handlats på oro och utbudsstörningar i mellanöstern. Olja kommer säkert också att gynnas av ECB:s repa men kommer samtidigt vara utsatt för det okända kortet kring vad som händer i Iran och sundet Hormuz.
Köp koppar och basmetaller är vår rekommendation. Koppar är den mest handlade basmetallen och reagerar på förändringar i den finansiella marknaden. Vill man undvika specifik risk i en enskild metall är rådet att köpa korgen basmetaller. Den innehåller sex basmetaller handlade på LME som är världens centrum för fysisk och finansiell metallhandel. Håll positionerna mars ut för att fånga det mesta av rörelsen. Tag positionen före beskedet från ECB som kommer på onsdag kl 11.15
[box]SHB Tradingcase är producerat av Handelsbanken och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]
Ansvarsbegränsning
Detta material är producerat av Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) i fortsättningen kallad Handelsbanken. De som arbetar med innehållet är inte analytiker och materialet är inte oberoende investeringsanalys. Innehållet är uteslutande avsett för kunder i Sverige. Syftet är att ge en allmän information till Handelsbankens kunder och utgör inte ett personligt investeringsråd eller en personlig rekommendation. Informationen ska inte ensamt utgöra underlag för investeringsbeslut. Kunder bör inhämta råd från sina rådgivare och basera sina investeringsbeslut utifrån egen erfarenhet.
Informationen i materialet kan ändras och också avvika från de åsikter som uttrycks i oberoende investeringsanalyser från Handelsbanken. Informationen grundar sig på allmänt tillgänglig information och är hämtad från källor som bedöms som tillförlitliga, men riktigheten kan inte garanteras och informationen kan vara ofullständig eller nedkortad. Ingen del av förslaget får reproduceras eller distribueras till någon annan person utan att Handelsbanken dessförinnan lämnat sitt skriftliga medgivande. Handelsbanken ansvarar inte för att materialet används på ett sätt som strider mot förbudet mot vidarebefordran eller offentliggörs i strid med bankens regler.
Analys
Brent sideways on sanctions and peace talks

Brent crude is currently trading around USD 66.2 per barrel, following a relatively tight session on Monday, where prices ranged between USD 65.3 and USD 66.8. While expectations of higher OPEC+ supply continue to weigh on sentiment, recent headlines have been dominated by geopolitics – particularly developments in Washington.

At the center is the White House meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy, and several key European leaders. During the meeting, Trump reportedly placed a direct call to Putin to discuss a potential bilateral sit-down between Putin and Zelenskyy, which several European officials have said could take place within two weeks.
While the Kremlin’s response remains vague, markets have interpreted this as a modestly positive signal, with both equities and global oil prices holding steady. Brent is marginally lower since yesterday’s close, while U.S. and Asian equity markets remain broadly flat.
Still, the political undertone is shifting, and markets may be underestimating the longer-term implications. According to the NY times, Putin has proposed a peace plan under which Russia would claim full control of the Donbas in exchange for dropping demands over Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – territories it has not yet seized.
Meanwhile, discussions around Ukraine’s long-term security framework are starting to take shape. Zelenskyy appeared encouraged by Trump’s openness to supporting a post-war security guarantee for Ukraine. While the exact terms remain unclear, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff stated that Putin had signaled willingness to allow Washington and its allies to offer Kyiv a NATO-style collective defense guarantee – a move that would significantly reshape the regional security landscape.
As diplomatic efforts gain momentum, markets are also beginning to assess the potential consequences of a partial or full rollback of U.S. sanctions on Russian energy. Any unwind would likely be gradual and uneven, especially if European allies resist or delay alignment. The U.S. could act unilaterally by loosening financial restrictions, granting Russian firms greater access to Western capital and services, and effectively neutralizing the price cap mechanism. However, the EU embargo on Russian crude and products remains a more immediate constraint on flows – particularly as it continues to tighten.
Even if the U.S. were to ease restrictions, Moscow would remain heavily reliant on buyers like India and China to absorb the majority of its crude exports, as European countries are unlikely to quickly re-engage in energy trade. That shift is already playing out. As India pulls back amid newly doubled U.S. tariffs – a response to its ongoing Russian oil purchases – Chinese refiners have stepped in.
So far in August, Chinese imports of Russia’s Urals crude – typically shipped from Baltic and Black Sea ports – have nearly doubled from the YTD average, with at least two tankers idling off Zhoushan and more reportedly en route (Kpler data). The uptick is driven by attractive pricing and the absence of direct U.S. trade penalties on China, which remains in a delicate tariff truce with Washington.
Indian refiners, by contrast, are notably more cautious – receiving offers but accepting few. The takeaway is clear: China is acting as the buyer of last resort for surplus Russian barrels, likely directing them into strategic storage. While this may temporarily cushion the effects of sanctions relief, it cannot fully offset the constraints imposed by Europe’s ongoing absence.
As a result, any meaningful boost to global supply from a rollback of U.S. sanctions on Russia may take longer to materialize than headlines suggest.
Analys
Crude inventories builds, diesel remain low

U.S. commercial crude inventories posted a 3-million-barrel build last week, according to the DOE, bringing total stocks to 426.7 million barrels – now 6% below the five-year seasonal average. The official figure came in above Tuesday’s API estimate of a 1.5-million-barrel increase.

Gasoline inventories fell by 0.8 million barrels, bringing levels roughly in line with the five-year norm. The composition was mixed, with finished gasoline stocks rising, while blending components declined.
Diesel inventories rose by 0.7 million barrels, broadly in line with the API’s earlier reading of a 0.3-million-barrel increase. Despite the weekly build, distillate stocks remain 15% below the five-year average, highlighting continued tightness in diesel supply.
Total commercial petroleum inventories (crude and products combined, excluding SPR) rose by 7.5 million barrels on the week, bringing total stocks to 1,267 million barrels. While inventories are improving, they remain below historical norms – especially in distillates, where the market remains structurally tight.
Analys
OPEC+ will have to make cuts before year end to stay credible

Falling 8 out of the last 10 days with some rebound this morning. Brent crude fell 0.7% yesterday to USD 65.63/b and traded in an intraday range of USD 65.01 – 66.33/b. Brent has now declined eight out of the last ten days. It is now trading on par with USD 65/b where it on average traded from early April (after ’Liberation day’) to early June (before Israel-Iran hostilities). This morning it is rebounding a little to USD 66/b.

Russia lifting production a bit slower, but still faster than it should. News that Russia will not hike production by more than 85 kb/d per month from July to November in order to pay back its ’production debt’ due to previous production breaches is helping to stem the decline in Brent crude a little. While this kind of restraint from Russia (and also Iraq) has been widely expected, it carries more weight when Russia states it explicitly. It still amounts to a total Russian increase of 425 kb/d which would bring Russian production from 9.1 mb/d in June to 9.5 mb/d in November. To pay back its production debt it shouldn’t increase its production at all before January next year. So some kind of in-between path which probably won’t please Saudi Arabia fully. It could stir some discontent in Saudi Arabia leading it to stay the course on elevated production through the autumn with acceptance for lower prices with ’Russia getting what it is asking for’ for not properly paying down its production debt.
OPEC(+) will have to make cuts before year end to stay credible if IEA’s massive surplus unfolds. In its latest oil market report the IEA estimated a need for oil from OPEC of 27 mb/d in Q3-25, falling to 25.7 mb/d in Q4-25 and averaging 25.7 mb/d in 2026. OPEC produced 28.3 mb/d in July. With its ongoing quota unwind it will likely hit 29 mb/d later this autumn. Staying on that level would imply a running surplus of 3 mb/d or more. A massive surplus which would crush the oil price totally. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stated that OPEC+ it may cut production again. That this is not a one way street of higher production. If IEA’s projected surplus starts to unfold, then OPEC+ in general and Saudi Arabia specifically must make cuts in order to stay credible versus what it has now repeatedly stated. Credibility is the core currency of Saudi Arabia and OPEC(+). Without credibility it can no longer properly control the oil market as it whishes.
Reactive or proactive cuts? An important question is whether OPEC(+) will be reactive or proactive with respect to likely coming production cuts. If reactive, then the oil price will crash first and then the cuts will be announced.
H2 has a historical tendency for oil price weakness. Worth remembering is that the oil price has a historical tendency of weakening in the second half of the year with OPEC(+) announcing fresh cuts towards the end of the year in order to prevent too much surplus in the first quarter.
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedan
Kopparpriset i fritt fall i USA efter att tullregler presenterats
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedan
Lundin Gold rapporterar enastående borrresultat vid Fruta del Norte
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedan
Stargate Norway, AI-datacenter på upp till 520 MW etableras i Narvik
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedan
Mängden M1-pengar ökar kraftigt
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedan
Lundin Gold hittar ny koppar-guld-fyndighet vid Fruta del Norte-gruvan
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedan
Guld stiger till över 3500 USD på osäkerhet i världen
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedan
Alkane Resources och Mandalay Resources har gått samman, aktör inom guld och antimon
-
Nyheter1 vecka sedan
Omgående mångmiljardfiasko för Equinors satsning på Ørsted och vindkraft