Analys
SHB Råvarubrev Jordbruk 6 augusti 2015

Vete
Terminspriserna på vete har under veckan gått upp något i Paris och handlas nära oförändrat i Chicago. Gårdagens, och även dagens, uppgång har vi lite svårt att förstå då prognoserna över veteskördar justerats upp för flera områden – franska analytiker menar t.ex. att årets inhemska skörd, som i stort sett är helt klar, blir rekordstor med omkring 39-39,5 miljoner ton, gällande rekord är 38,2 miljoner ton år 1998. Detta är förvånande för många som tidigare menat att torrt väder, som bl.a. sägs ha drabbat majsen hårt, även medfört negativa konsekvenser för vetet. Viktiga exporthamnar i Frankrike uppges nu även neka till mer intag då de helt enkelt inte blir av med vetet.
Även prognosen för den ryska skörden har höjts av flera inhemska analytiker, upp omkring 1,5 miljoner ton till 57-58 miljoner ton. Än så länge är ungefär 30 procent av skörden klar och vädret uppges vara torrt och bra för skördearbete. Även i Australien har förbättrat väder hjälpt utsikterna för säsongens skörd – välbehövligt regn har lindrat tidigare oro över torka och El Nino.
Vi har svårt att se några skäl till varför vetepriserna ska fortsätta stiga och ser nuvarande uppställ som en ny chans att sälja på höga nivåer – återigen kan vete MATIF december 2016 säljas för runt EUR 191 (SEK 1.810) per ton.
Raps
Rapspriserna har stigit något under veckan, detta delvis som följd av nedjusteringar i prognoser för den europeiska rapsskörden – EU-kommissionen sänkte sin prognos med 1 miljon ton till 20,7 miljoner ton tidigare i veckan som följd av torrt och varmt väder i en del områden samt nedjusterad areal. Även rapsskörden i Ukraina, som är en viktig exportör till EU, har justerats ned den senaste tiden – total skörd uppskattas av lokala analytiker till omkring 15 procent lägre än förra året, förklarat av en mindre areal då avkastningen sägs vara något högre i år. Raps augusti 2016 handlas nu kring EUR 363 (SEK 3.428) per ton.
Majs
Majspriserna i Chicago har gått ned något under veckan, påverkat av något bättre väder i USA samt en starkare amerikansk dollar. Majsen i USA har tidigare fått alldeles för mycket regn i en del områden men nu börjar det istället talas om att det på sina håll börjar bli för torrt – en mindre nedjustering av avkastningsnivån väntas i nästa veckas WASDE-rapport, ned mot 165-166 bushels per acre från juli månads 166,8 bushels per acre. Även 165 bushels per acre skulle dock vara näst högst någonsin så än pekar inget på annat än en stor skörd även om arealen är mindre i år. Osäkerheten har ökat än mer för majsen i Europa – torrt väder väntas dra ned avkastningsnivån mycket i bl.a. Frankrike och Rumänien. Även Ukraina uppges vara väldigt torrt och varmt och nedjusteringar av skördeprognosen är nog att vänta.
Sojabönor
Priserna i Chicago på sojabönor noteras i stort sett oförändrade för veckan. Precis som för majsen så önskar sojabönorna i delar av USA lite mer nederbörd, och i kommande veckas WASDE-rapport spås avkastnings-nivån justeras ned mot omkring 44,5-45,5 bushels per acre från juli månads 46 bushels per acre. Även arealen väntas kunna justeras ned något som följd av mycket nederbörd under tiden för sådd, dessa justeringar väntas dock bli relativt marginella. Med svag råolja och palmolja samt stark dollar blir det nog ändå svårt för sojan att börja kliva uppåt, dessutom tycks många mena att USDA kommer behöva sänka de amerikanska exportsiffrorna då mesta efterfrågan riktas mot Sydamerika.
Analys
Tightening fundamentals – bullish inventories from DOE

The latest weekly report from the US DOE showed a substantial drawdown across key petroleum categories, adding more upside potential to the fundamental picture.

Commercial crude inventories (excl. SPR) fell by 5.8 million barrels, bringing total inventories down to 415.1 million barrels. Now sitting 11% below the five-year seasonal norm and placed in the lowest 2015-2022 range (see picture below).
Product inventories also tightened further last week. Gasoline inventories declined by 2.1 million barrels, with reductions seen in both finished gasoline and blending components. Current gasoline levels are about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Among products, the most notable move came in diesel, where inventories dropped by almost 4.1 million barrels, deepening the deficit to around 20% below seasonal norms – continuing to underscore the persistent supply tightness in diesel markets.
The only area of inventory growth was in propane/propylene, which posted a significant 5.1-million-barrel build and now stands 9% above the five-year average.
Total commercial petroleum inventories (crude plus refined products) declined by 4.2 million barrels on the week, reinforcing the overall tightening of US crude and products.


Analys
Bombs to ”ceasefire” in hours – Brent below $70

A classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news” played out in oil markets, as Brent crude has dropped sharply – down nearly USD 10 per barrel since yesterday evening – following Iran’s retaliatory strike on a U.S. air base in Qatar. The immediate reaction was: “That was it?” The strike followed a carefully calibrated, non-escalatory playbook, avoiding direct threats to energy infrastructure or disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – thus calming worst-case fears.

After Monday morning’s sharp spike to USD 81.4 per barrel, triggered by the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, oil prices drifted sideways in anticipation of a potential Iranian response. That response came with advance warning and caused limited physical damage. Early this morning, both the U.S. President and Iranian state media announced a ceasefire, effectively placing a lid on the immediate conflict risk – at least for now.
As a result, Brent crude has now fallen by a total of USD 12 from Monday’s peak, currently trading around USD 69 per barrel.
Looking beyond geopolitics, the market will now shift its focus to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in early July. Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase output earlier this year – despite falling prices – has drawn renewed attention considering recent developments. Some suggest this was a response to U.S. pressure to offset potential Iranian supply losses.
However, consensus is that the move was driven more by internal OPEC+ dynamics. After years of curbing production to support prices, Riyadh had grown frustrated with quota-busting by several members (notably Kazakhstan). With Saudi Arabia cutting up to 2 million barrels per day – roughly 2% of global supply – returns were diminishing, and the risk of losing market share was rising. The production increase is widely seen as an effort to reassert leadership and restore discipline within the group.
That said, the FT recently stated that, the Saudis remain wary of past missteps. In 2018, Riyadh ramped up output at Trump’s request ahead of Iran sanctions, only to see prices collapse when the U.S. granted broad waivers – triggering oversupply. Officials have reportedly made it clear they don’t intend to repeat that mistake.
The recent visit by President Trump to Saudi Arabia, which included agreements on AI, defense, and nuclear cooperation, suggests a broader strategic alignment. This has fueled speculation about a quiet “pump-for-politics” deal behind recent production moves.
Looking ahead, oil prices have now retraced the entire rally sparked by the June 13 Israel–Iran escalation. This retreat provides more political and policy space for both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Specifically, it makes it easier for Riyadh to scale back its three recent production hikes of 411,000 barrels each, potentially returning to more moderate increases of 137,000 barrels for August and September.
In short: with no major loss of Iranian supply to the market, OPEC+ – led by Saudi Arabia – no longer needs to compensate for a disruption that hasn’t materialized, especially not to please the U.S. at the cost of its own market strategy. As the Saudis themselves have signaled, they are unlikely to repeat previous mistakes.
Conclusion: With Brent now in the high USD 60s, buying oil looks fundamentally justified. The geopolitical premium has deflated, but tensions between Israel and Iran remain unresolved – and the risk of missteps and renewed escalation still lingers. In fact, even this morning, reports have emerged of renewed missile fire despite the declared “truce.” The path forward may be calmer – but it is far from stable.
Analys
A muted price reaction. Market looks relaxed, but it is still on edge waiting for what Iran will do

Brent crossed the 80-line this morning but quickly fell back assigning limited probability for Iran choosing to close the Strait of Hormuz. Brent traded in a range of USD 70.56 – 79.04/b last week as the market fluctuated between ”Iran wants a deal” and ”US is about to attack Iran”. At the end of the week though, Donald Trump managed to convince markets (and probably also Iran) that he would make a decision within two weeks. I.e. no imminent attack. Previously when when he has talked about ”making a decision within two weeks” he has often ended up doing nothing in the end. The oil market relaxed as a result and the week ended at USD 77.01/b which is just USD 6/b above the year to date average of USD 71/b.

Brent jumped to USD 81.4/b this morning, the highest since mid-January, but then quickly fell back to a current price of USD 78.2/b which is only up 1.5% versus the close on Friday. As such the market is pricing a fairly low probability that Iran will actually close the Strait of Hormuz. Probably because it will hurt Iranian oil exports as well as the global oil market.
It was however all smoke and mirrors. Deception. The US attacked Iran on Saturday. The attack involved 125 warplanes, submarines and surface warships and 14 bunker buster bombs were dropped on Iranian nuclear sites including Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. In response the Iranian Parliament voted in support of closing the Strait of Hormuz where some 17 mb of crude and products is transported to the global market every day plus significant volumes of LNG. This is however merely an advise to the Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council which sits with the final and actual decision.
No supply of oil is lost yet. It is about the risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz or not. So far not a single drop of oil supply has been lost to the global market. The price at the moment is all about the assessed risk of loss of supply. Will Iran choose to choke of the Strait of Hormuz or not? That is the big question. It would be painful for US consumers, for Donald Trump’s voter base, for the global economy but also for Iran and its population which relies on oil exports and income from selling oil out of that Strait as well. As such it is not a no-brainer choice for Iran to close the Strait for oil exports. And looking at the il price this morning it is clear that the oil market doesn’t assign a very high probability of it happening. It is however probably well within the capability of Iran to close the Strait off with rockets, mines, air-drones and possibly sea-drones. Just look at how Ukraine has been able to control and damage the Russian Black Sea fleet.
What to do about the highly enriched uranium which has gone missing? While the US and Israel can celebrate their destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities they are also scratching their heads over what to do with the lost Iranian nuclear material. Iran had 408 kg of highly enriched uranium (IAEA). Almost weapons grade. Enough for some 10 nuclear warheads. It seems to have been transported out of Fordow before the attack this weekend.
The market is still on edge. USD 80-something/b seems sensible while we wait. The oil market reaction to this weekend’s events is very muted so far. The market is still on edge awaiting what Iran will do. Because Iran will do something. But what and when? An oil price of 80-something seems like a sensible level until something do happen.
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