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Sälj guld på bättre konjunktur

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SHB Handelsbanken - Tradingcase råvaror - Analys

SHB Handelsbanken tradingcase råvaror”Risk on” temat dominerar och guldet får lida. Vi tror att resan nedåt bara har börjat.

Guld har 12 år med stigande pris i ryggen. Guld har blivit råvaran som inte kan gå ner. Under 2012 nådde guld sin högsta nivå 1794 USD/oz den 4e oktober när QE3 yran var som värst. Därefter har guldet hamnat i en fallande trend. Många analytiker räknade med att debaclet kring USA:s skuldtak skulle ge guldpriset stöd under början av detta året. Så har inte varit fallet och vi ser nu flera skäl till att guldet kommer fortsätta falla nedåt.

Position:
Bear Guld (hävstång)
Guld S H (ingen hävstång)

Utsikter för guldpriset:
Sedan de första positiva signalerna kom från Kina i september har bilden av en allt bättre global konjunktur börjat sprida sig. Denna bild har bekräftats av makrodata och fått investerare att allokera om sina portföljer från defensiva positioner till en mer risksökande inriktning. I denna omallokering ingår att lämna guld för ”risk on” tillgångar som aktier och andra mer konjunkturdrivna råvaror som olja och basmetaller. Dessa flöden tro vi kommer fortsätta under våren när finansmarknaden dansar till allt gladare toner från bättre konjunkturdata.

Under senaste veckorna har olja handlats upp samtidigt som guld handlats ner. Det är en klassisk indikator på att en ljusare framtid är här.

Tekniskt står guld nu på ett mycket viktigt stöd och fallhöjden är ner till 1530 om guld bryter under 1645. Uppåt tycker vi att en stopp på 1705 är att rekommendera.

Teknisk analys på guldpris (Gold 100 oz)

Analys

Higher on confidence OPEC+ won’t lift production. Taking little notice of Trump sledgehammer to global free trade

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Ticking higher on confidence that OPEC+ won’t lift production in April. Brent crude gained 0.8% yesterday with a close of USD 75.84/b. This morning it is gaining another 0.7% to USD 76.3/b. Signals the latest days that OPEC+ is considering a delay to its planned production increase in April and the following months is probably the most important reason. But we would be surprised if that wasn’t fully anticipated and discounted in the oil price already. News this morning that there are ”green shots” to be seen in the Chinese property market is macro-positive, but industrial metals are not moving. It is naturally to be concerned about the global economic outlook as Donald Trump takes a sledgehammer smashing away at the existing global ”free-trade structure” with signals of 25% tariffs on car imports to the US. The oil price takes little notice of this today though.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Kazakhstan CPC crude flows possibly down 30% for months due to damaged CPC pumping station. The Brent price has been in steady decline since mid-January but seems to have found some support around the USD 74/b mark, the low point from Thursday last week. Technically it is inching above the 50dma today with 200dma above at USD 77.64/b. Oil flowing from Kazakhstan on the CPC line may be reduced by 30% until the Krapotkinskaya oil pumping station is repaired. That may take several months says Russia’s Novak. This probably helps to add support to Brent crude today.

The Brent crude 1mth contract with 50dma, 100dma, 200dma and RSI. Nothing on the horizon at the moment which makes us expect any imminent break above USD 80/b

The Brent crude 1mth contract with 50dma, 100dma, 200dma and RSI. Nothing on the horizon at the moment which makes us expect any imminent break above USD 80/b
Source: Bloomberg
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Analys

Brent looks to US production costs. Taking little notice of Trump-tariffs and Ukraine peace-dealing

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crude hardly moved last week taking little notice of neither tariffs nor Ukraine peace-dealing. Brent crude traded up 0.1% last week to USD 74.74/b trading in a range of USD 74.06 – 77.29/b. Fluctuations through the week may have been driven by varying signals from the Putin-Trump peace negotiations over Ukraine. This morning Brent is up 0.4% to USD 75/b. Gain is possibly due to news that a Caspian pipeline pumping station has been hit by a drone with reduced CPC (Kazaksthan) oil flows as a result.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Brent front-month contract rock solid around the USD 75/b mark. The Brent crude price level of around USD 75/b hardly moved an inch week on week. Fear that Trump-tariffs will hurt global economic growth and oil demand growth. No impact. Possibility that a peace deal over Ukraine will lead to increased exports of oil from Russia. No impact. On the latter. Russian oil production at 9 mb/band versus a more normal 10 mb/d and comparably lower exports is NOT due to sanctions by the EU and the US. Russia is part of OPEC+, and its production is aligned with Saudi Arabia at 9 mb/d and the agreement Russia has made with Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Though exports of Russian crude and products has been hampered a little by the new Biden-sanctions on 10 January, but that effect is probably fading by the day as oil flows have a tendency to seep through the sanction barriers over time. A sharp decline in time-spreads is probably a sign of that.

Longer-dated prices zoom in on US cost break-evens with 5yr WTI at USD 63/b and Brent at USD 68-b. Argus reported on Friday that a Kansas City Fed survey last month indicated an average of USD 62/b for average drilling and oil production in the US to be profitable. That is down from USD 64/b last year. In comparison the 5-year (60mth) WTI contract is trading at USD 62.8/b. Right at that level. The survey response also stated that an oil price of sub-USD 70/b won’t be enough over time for the US oil industry to make sufficient profits with decline capex over time with sub-USD 70/b prices. But for now, the WTI 5yr is trading at USD 62.8/b and the Brent crude 5-yr is trading at USD 67.7/b. 

Volatility comes in waves. Brent crude 30dma annualized volatility.

Volatility comes in waves. Brent crude 30dma annualized volatility.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data

1 to 3 months’ time-spreads have fallen back sharply. Crude oil from Russia and Iran may be seeping through the 10 Jan Biden-sanctions.

1 to 3 months' time-spreads have fallen back sharply. Crude oil from Russia and Iran may be seeping through the 10 Jan Biden-sanctions.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data

Brent crude 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.

Brent crude 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data

ARA Jet 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.

ARA Jet 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data

ICE Gasoil 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.

ICE Gasoil 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data

Rotterdam Fuel oil 0.5% 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.

Rotterdam Fuel oil 0.5% 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data

Rotterdam Fuel oil 3.5% 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.

Rotterdam Fuel oil 3.5% 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data
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Analys

Rising with softer USD and positive markets but less bullish tailwind from nat gas

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Ticking higher along with softer USD and gains in metals and equities. Brent traded down marginally (-0.2%) yesterday to USD 72.02/b following a 2.4% decline on Wednesday. This morning it is ticking up 0.5% to USD 75.4/b, well aligned with a 0.4% softer USD and solid gains in equities and industrial metals. Technically it is neither overbought nor oversold with RSI at 45. Though it is flirting with the 100dma also being below both the 50dma and the 200dma. So, no obvious strength either. The bullish tailwind from nat gas is fading a bit with TTF nat gas falling sharply to below the price of ICE Gasoil (”diesel”).

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Longer-dated prices supported at USD 68/b. But looks like a process of fading strength. The longer-dated contracts for Brent keep trading down towards the high 60ies around USD 68/b but are rejected repeatedly. The pricing for these contracts looks like a process of fading strength. Just oozing closer to the USD 68/b level with smaller and smaller bounces each time. Very clear consumer buying interest for oil products when Brent crude prices move towards the USD 68-70/b level. This support level may thus to some degree come from the consumer side of the market. If oil consuming industry loses confidence in the economy, we might see the longer dated prices break below USD 68-70/b. But oil producers may also have limited interest in hedging downside risk at around the 68-mark. So, selling from that side of the market is probably also fading at that level. But also, sellers/producers may change if the global economy was to look shakier.

Microscopic changes in IEA forecast. OPEC(+) still needs to cut in 2025 to balance market. The IEA made only microscopic adjustments to its oil market balance yesterday. Adjusting production in OECD Europe and FSU production slightly lower resulting in call-on-OPEC going up by 0.2 mb/d versus the previous report. Call-on-OPEC is still set to decline from 27.1 mb/d in 2024 to 26.7 mb/d in 2025. A y-y decline of 0.4 mb/d implying that the group will have to cut production comparably in 2025. OPEC+ is of course planning to lift production by 120 kb/d/month from April onwards. Nope, says the IEA. It has to reduce supply instead.

Front-month and longer dated Brent crude oil prices in USD/b bouncing off the USD 68-70/b level.

Front-month and longer dated Brent crude oil prices in USD/b bouncing off the USD 68-70/b level.
Source: SEB graph, Bloomberg data

European TTF front-month price trading sharply lower following signals that nat gas inventories in Europe may not need to mandatory fill to 90% by 1 November anyhow.

European TTF front-month price trading sharply lower following signals that nat gas inventories in Europe may not need to mandatory fill to 90% by 1 November anyhow.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data
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