Analys
Platina har nått våra utpekade mål – vad händer nu?
Under rubriken ”Platina redo att ge uppgångssignaler” gjorde vi en teknisk analys av Platina den 17 januari. Priset var då 1502 USD/oz och vi kunde se att våra veckoindikatorer var positiva och redo att ge uppgångssignaler. För att stärka uppgångsscenariot ytterligare kunde vi också identifiera den bottenformationen som platina hade byggt upp runt årsskiftet. Detta var en klassisk formation, en så kallad upp- och nedvänd Head & Shoulder, vilket också var en uppgångssignal.
Sammantaget gjorde detta att vi hade stora förhoppningar om att Platina skulle bryta den fallande trendlinjen vid 1520 USD/oz under januari och sedan fortsätta upp mot i första hand 1560 USD/oz men på sikt även 1660-1680 USD/oz. Detta var analysen, men hur blev verkligheten?
Jo, det visar sig att Platina och den tekniska analysen var överens om utvecklingen. Vi har fått en stadig och trygg uppgång, där Platina sakta med säkert letat sig uppåt. En notering i 1 674 USD/oz är den högsta hittills, vilket noterades den 9 februari. Med andra ord är det en uppgång på över 11 procent sedan förra analysen.
Därmed är inte bara vårt första, utan även vårt andra mål infriat! Frågan infinner sig då förstås, vad händer nu?
Vi har en stigande trendlinje som idag har värdet 1 580 USD/oz. Den fungerar som stopploss och livlina om platina skulle falla tillbaka. För en rekyl ned borde ligga runt hörnet. Dels har platina nu infriat våra mål och nått fram till en betydelsefull nivå. Och dels har uppgången pågått utan några större kraftsamlingsfaser, vilket gör behovet av andhämtning desto större.
Våra dagsbaserade indikatorer menar att det är hög tid för en nedgång och ett naturligt stöd är förstås den stigande trendlinjen vid 1580 USD/oz, vilket också skulle vara ett utmärkt köpläge.
Men – så var det ju detta med styrkan. Många råvaror visar nämligen just nu upp en stor styrka, och en ovilja att rekylera ned. Det finns helt enkelt inte tillräckligt många som vill sälja och plocka hem korta vinster. Detta kan skapa frustration hos köparna som vill in i råvarorna, och står redo att gå in i första bästa rekyl. Uteblir dessa, kommer stressen att öka allt mer för varje dag.
Så även om det bästa och mest optimala är den utveckling som den tekniska analysen pekar ut, att det nu blir en rekyl till 1580 USD/oz, kan vi inte ta det för givet. Det kan också bli en sidledes rörelse under motståndet 1680 USD/oz ett par dagar till, innan köparna stressas in och gör att platina bryter detta viktiga motstånd.
Genombrottet kan lyckas. Ett tag. Sedan är risken att det blir ett hastigt bakslag i Platina, liksom i många andra metaller. Men det ligger säkerligen en bit in i framtiden, och vi fortsätter förstås den strategi som vi redan gjort och hänger på i uppgången så länge det går. Exakt vart toppen sedan kommer att infinna sig, är svårt att säga. Det finns många motstånd och naturliga stopp på vägen upp till 1918 USD/oz som platina noterade som topp den 23 augusti 2011.
Du kan handla PLATINA med följande minifutures:
Uppgång MINILONG PLAT A med en hävstång kring 3,88
Nedgång: MINISHRT PLAT H med en hävstång kring 4,00
Läs mer om minifutures på RBS hemsida
[box]Denna analys publiceras på Råvarumarknaden.se med tillstånd och i samarbete med Axier Equities.[/box]
Ansvarsfriskrivning
Den tekniska analysen har producerats av Axier Equities. Informationen är rapporterad i god tro och speglar de aktuella åsikterna hos medarbetarna, dessa kan ändras utan varsel. Axier Equities tar inget ansvar för handlingar baserade på informationen.
Om Axier Equities
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Analys
All eyes on OPEC V8 and their July quota decision on Saturday

Tariffs or no tariffs played ping pong with Brent crude yesterday. Brent crude traded to a joyous high of USD 66.13/b yesterday as a US court rejected Trump’s tariffs. Though that ruling was later overturned again with Brent closing down 1.2% on the day to USD 64.15/b.

US commercial oil inventories fell 0.7 mb last week versus a seasonal normal rise of 3-6 mb. US commercial crude and product stocks fell 0.7 mb last week which is fairly bullish since the seasonal normal is for a rise of 4.3 mb. US crude stocks fell 2.8 mb, Distillates fell 0.7 mb and Gasoline stocks fell 2.4 mb.
All eyes are now on OPEC V8 (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Algeria, Russia, Oman, Kazakhstan) which will make a decision tomorrow on what to do with production for July. Overall they are in a process of placing 2.2 mb/d of cuts back into the market over a period stretching out to December 2026. Following an expected hike of 137 kb/d in April they surprised the market by lifting production targets by 411 kb/d for May and then an additional 411 kb/d again for June. It is widely expected that the group will decide to lift production targets by another 411 kb/d also for July. That is probably mostly priced in the market. As such it will probably not have all that much of a bearish bearish price impact on Monday if they do.
It is still a bit unclear what is going on and why they are lifting production so rapidly rather than at a very gradual pace towards the end of 2026. One argument is that the oil is needed in the market as Middle East demand rises sharply in summertime. Another is that the group is partially listening to Donald Trump which has called for more oil and a lower price. The last is that Saudi Arabia is angry with Kazakhstan which has produced 300 kb/d more than its quota with no indications that they will adhere to their quota.
So far we have heard no explicit signal from the group that they have abandoned the plan of measured increases with monthly assessments so that the 2.2 mb/d is fully back in the market by the end of 2026. If the V8 group continues to lift quotas by 411 kb/d every month they will have revived the production by the full 2.2 mb/d already in September this year. There are clearly some expectations in the market that this is indeed what they actually will do. But this is far from given. Thus any verbal wrapping around the decision for July quotas on Saturday will be very important and can have a significant impact on the oil price. So far they have been tightlipped beyond what they will do beyond the month in question and have said nothing about abandoning the ”gradually towards the end of 2026” plan. It is thus a good chance that they will ease back on the hikes come August, maybe do no changes for a couple of months or even cut the quotas back a little if needed.
Significant OPEC+ spare capacity will be placed back into the market over the coming 1-2 years. What we do know though is that OPEC+ as a whole as well as the V8 subgroup specifically have significant spare capacity at hand which will be placed back into the market over the coming year or two or three. Probably an increase of around 3.0 – 3.5 mb/d. There is only two ways to get it back into the market. The oil price must be sufficiently low so that 1) Demand growth is stronger and 2) US shale oil backs off. In combo allowing the spare capacity back into the market.
Low global inventories stands ready to soak up 200-300 mb of oil. What will cushion the downside for the oil price for a while over the coming year is that current, global oil inventories are low and stand ready to soak up surplus production to the tune of 200-300 mb.
Analys
Brent steady at $65 ahead of OPEC+ and Iran outcomes

Following the rebound on Wednesday last week – when Brent reached an intra-week high of USD 66.6 per barrel – crude oil prices have since trended lower. Since opening at USD 65.4 per barrel on Monday this week, prices have softened slightly and are currently trading around USD 64.7 per barrel.

This morning, oil prices are trading sideways to slightly positive, supported by signs of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU. European equities climbed while long-term government bond yields declined after President Trump announced a pause in new tariffs yesterday, encouraging hopes of a transatlantic trade agreement.
The optimisms were further supported by reports indicating that the EU has agreed to fast-track trade negotiations with the U.S.
More significantly, crude prices appear to be consolidating around the USD 65 level as markets await the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. We expect the group to finalize its July output plans – driven by the eight key producers known as the “Voluntary Eight” – on May 31st, one day ahead of the original schedule.
We assign a high probability to another sizeable output increase of 411,000 barrels per day. However, this potential hike seems largely priced in already. While a minor price dip may occur on opening next week (Monday morning), we expect market reactions to remain relatively muted.
Meanwhile, the U.S. president expressed optimism following the latest round of nuclear talks with Iran in Rome, describing them as “very good.” Although such statements should be taken with caution, a positive outcome now appears more plausible. A successful agreement could eventually lead to the return of more Iranian barrels to the global market.
Analys
A shift to surplus will likely drive Brent towards the 60-line and the high 50ies

Brent sinks lower as OPEC+ looks likely to lift production in July by another 400 kb/d. Brent crude declined 0.7% yesterday to USD 64.44/b and traded in a range of USD 63.54 – 65.03/b. This morning Brent is down another 0.7% to USD 64/b along with expectations that OPEC+ will lift its production quota by another 411 kb/d in July.

Kazakhstan would be in breach even if the whole 2.2 mb/d of voluntary cuts are unwounded. The eight countries behind the 2.2 mb/d of voluntary cuts, the V8, have lifted their production quotas by close to 950 kb/d from April to June with unwinding starting in April. Over the coming week towards the end of May, the group will discuss what to do with quotas in July. Market expectations as well as indications from within the group is for another 411 kb/d hike also in July. Higher oil demand during summer both in the Middle East and globally is one reason for the hikes. Most of the additional production will not leave the Middle East but be consumed locally this summer. But Kazakhstan is also a major problem. The country produced 1.77 mb/d in April and 300 kb/d above its quota level. To maintain cohesion and credibility the group needs internal cooperation and harmony. Kazakhstan seems to have no plans to reduce production down to its quota. The alternative solution to reestablish internal harmony is to lift quotas up to where production is. The problem is that Kazakhstan only accounts for less than 5% of the overall production of V8. Thus even after unwinding all of the 2.2 mb/d, the quota of Kazakhstan would not rise much more than 100 kb/d. Far from the country’s overproduction of 300 kb/d in April.
A shift to surplus will likely drive Brent towards the 60-line and high 50ies. Losing front-end backwardation implies Brent crude down to the 60-line and high 50ies. Currently the Brent crude curve holds a front-end backwardation premium of USD 1.5/b versus the November price currently at USD 62.6/b. A result of an oil market which is still tight here and now. But if OPEC+ lifts production to a level where the market starts to run a surplus, then the front-end contract will flip from a USD 1.5/b premium vs. 4 months out to instead a comparable USD 1.5/b discount to 4 months out. That would bring the front-end contract down towards the 60-line and the high 50ies. This because a full out contango market usually also will drive the deferred contracts a bit lower as well. But this may not be all doom and gloom. A softer USD and a lower oil price is a powerful combo for global consumption. Global oil stocks are also low. This will help to cushion the downside.
Brent crude forward curve. Surplus and full contango would eradicate the front-end backwardation and drive Brent crude down towards the 60-line and high 50ies.

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