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Analys

Lundin Petroleum – Trading case

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Handelsbanken - Råvarubrevet - Nyhetsbrev om råvaror

Kvartalsrapport för råvaror från HandelsbankenLundin Petroleum har utvecklats betydligt svagare än Stockholmsbörsen sedan rapporten för det första kvartalet i början av maj. Detta trots positiva nyheter angående elförsörjningen av det gigantiska oljefältet Johan Sverdrup, samt värdestödjande försäljningar av tillgångar på norska kontinentalsockeln. Vi tror att ett stigande oljepris och lyckade prospekteringsborrningar kommer att ge bränsle till aktien.

Oljepriset bör vända upp

Oljepriset är på den lägsta nivån på över ett år, 101 USD per fat, vilket vi anser är orimligt med tanke på den geopolitiska oron i världen (Ryssland/Ukraina och Mellanöstern) och OPEC:s behov av ett pris på minst 105 USD för budgetbalans. Vi ser det som sannolikt att oljepriset stiger framöver, mest på grund av den geopolitiska oron, men även från en eventuell produktionsminskning i Saudiarabien.

Attraktiv värdering, flera kurstriggers

Lundin Petroleum handlas till en substansrabatt om cirka 10 procent, att jämföra mot det historiska genomsnittet (efter fyndet av Johan Sverdrup) om 4 procent. Bolaget går ett intressant andra halvår till mötes med 10 prospekteringsborrningar, varav 5 i Norge. Viktigt att betona är att Lundin Petroleums exponering mot Ryssland i stort sett är obefintlig (en prospekteringslicens, ingen produktion), vilket minskar risken med hänsyn till oroligheterna.

Teknisk

Lundin Petroleum befinner sig i en fallande trend sedan 2011, men har under de sista tre veckorna utvecklats bättre än Stockholmsbörsen. Momentumindikatorn MACD indikerar att aktien har bottnat och uppgången ser ut att kunna fortsätta. Stöd finns vid tidigare bottennivå (och stigande trendline sedan 2011) runt 120 kronor, medan närmsta motstånd är vid fallande trendlinje vid 135 kronor. Vid ett utbrott över denna nivå bedöms nästa anhalt vara 150 kronor.

Teknisk analys på Lundin Petroleums aktie

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Analys

The path of retaking market share goes through a lower price

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

OPEC+ on Sunday decided to lift production caps by an additional 137 kb/d in October. Thereby starting to unwind the last tranche of voluntary cuts of 1.66 mb/d. It will unwind this last tranche gradually until the end of 2026 depending on market conditions it said.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Brent closed on Friday at USD 65.5/b. The market is up at USD 66.7/b this morning. That is below the high on Friday and USD 2.4/b below where it closed on Tuesday last week. So while the decision by the group was less aggressive than the market feared on Friday afternoon, it was still a very different from the group than what most market participants expected at the beginning of last week.

Our expectation last week was for the group to unwind the remaining 1.66 mb/d of voluntary cuts over only three months to the end of this year and get done with it. But the group decided on a slower path. It will not shock its way back to a larger market share like it tried without much luck in 2014/15/16. It will instead push steadily, steadily and take it back. Allowing US shale oil players time to step aside. But step aside they must.

The implied message from the group this weekend was 1) They are in the process of retaking market share and 2) As long as the price is USD 65.5/b (close on Friday) the group will revive more production.

What we know is that this process of retaking market share by OPEC+ goes through a lower oil price. And that lower price is below USD 65.5/b. A lower price to stimulate more demand. A lower price to hamper supply by non-OPEC+ (predominantly US shale oil).

The fact that Brent crude is still trading at USD 66.6/b despite this very explicit message from the group this weekend is down to still low US and OECD crude and product inventories. The front-end backwardation of the Brent futures curve is a reflection of this tightness. But this tightness will ease along with more oil from OPEC+ over the coming months. The Brent crude oil forward curve will then flip into full contango all along the curve. We then expect the front-end of the Brent curve to trade around USD 55/b with WTI close to USD 50/b.

At the beginning of this year BNEF estimated US shale oil cost break even levels to be in a range from USD 40/b to USD 60/b with a volume weighted average of USD 50/b. The latter our calculation. So a WTI price at the middle of that range is probably what is needed to force activity in US shale oil activity yet lower.

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Analys

OPEC+ in a process of retaking market share

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Oil prices are likely to fall for a fourth straight year as OPEC+ unwinds cuts and retakes market share. We expect Brent crude to average USD 55/b in Q4/25 before OPEC+ steps in to stabilise the market into 2026. Surplus, stock building, oil prices are under pressure with OPEC+ calling the shots as to how rough it wants to play it. We see natural gas prices following parity with oil (except for seasonality) until LNG surplus arrives in late 2026/early 2027.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Oil market: Q4/25 and 2026 will be all about how OPEC+ chooses to play it
OPEC+ is in a process of unwinding voluntary cuts by a sub-group of the members and taking back market share. But the process looks set to be different from 2014-16, as the group doesn’t look likely to blindly lift production to take back market share. The group has stated very explicitly that it can just as well cut production as increase it ahead. While the oil price is unlikely to drop as violently and lasting as in 2014-16, it will likely fall further before the group steps in with fresh cuts to stabilise the price. We expect Brent to fall to USD 55/b in Q4/25 before the group steps in with fresh cuts at the end of the year.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Natural gas market: Winter risk ahead, yet LNG balance to loosen from 2026
The global gas market entered 2025 in a fragile state of balance. European reliance on LNG remains high, with Russian pipeline flows limited to Turkey and Russian LNG constrained by sanctions. Planned NCS maintenance in late summer could trim exports by up to 1.3 TWh/day, pressuring EU storage ahead of winter. Meanwhile, NE Asia accounts for more than 50% of global LNG demand, with China alone nearing a 20% share (~80 mt in 2024). US shale gas production has likely peaked after reaching 104.8 bcf/d, even as LNG export capacity expands rapidly, tightening the US balance. Global supply additions are limited until late 2026, when major US, Qatari and Canadian projects are due to start up. Until then, we expect TTF to average EUR 38/MWh through 2025, before easing as the new supply wave likely arrives in late 2026 and then in 2027.

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Analys

Manufacturing PMIs ticking higher lends support to both copper and oil

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Price action contained withing USD 2/b last week. Likely muted today as well with US closed. The Brent November contract is the new front-month contract as of today. It traded in a range of USD 66.37-68.49/b and closed the week up a mere 0.4% at USD 67.48/b. US oil inventory data didn’t make much of an impact on the Brent price last week as it is totally normal for US crude stocks to decline 2.4 mb/d this time of year as data showed. This morning Brent is up a meager 0.5% to USD 67.8/b. It is US Labor day today with US markets closed. Today’s price action is likely going to be muted due to that.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Improving manufacturing readings. China’s manufacturing PMI for August came in at 49.4 versus 49.3 for July. A marginal improvement. The total PMI index ticked up to 50.5 from 50.2 with non-manufacturing also helping it higher. The HCOB Eurozone manufacturing PMI was a disastrous 45.1 last December, but has since then been on a one-way street upwards to its current 50.5 for August. The S&P US manufacturing index jumped to 53.3 in August which was the highest since 2022 (US ISM manufacturing tomorrow). India manufacturing PMI rose further and to 59.3 for August which is the highest since at least 2022.

Are we in for global manufacturing expansion? Would help to explain copper at 10k and resilient oil. JPMorgan global manufacturing index for August is due tomorrow. It was 49.7 in July and has been below the 50-line since February. Looking at the above it looks like a good chance for moving into positive territory for global manufacturing. A copper price of USD 9935/ton, sniffing at the 10k line could be a reflection of that. An oil price holding up fairly well at close to USD 68/b despite the fact that oil balances for Q4-25 and 2026 looks bloated could be another reflection that global manufacturing may be accelerating.

US manufacturing PMI by S&P rose to 53.3 in August. It was published on 21 August, so not at all newly released. But the US ISM manufacturing PMI is due tomorrow and has the potential to follow suite with a strong manufacturing reading.

US manufacturing PMI by S&P
Source: Bloomberg
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