Analys

Silver trycker vid målnivå

Publicerat

12 år sedan

den

3 oktober, 2012

Silver Comex (kontinuerlig termin) 100 oz

Silver ligger fortsatt och brottas med 38.2% motståndet och det är något som fortsatt kan hålla i sig under ett tag. Bryter Silver över denna motståndszon, vilken ligger vid $3516, så kommer 50% mest troligen att nås, 50% hittar vi vid $3797.

Veckomomentum har kommit upp till nivåer där vi tidigare har sett att det har bildats toppar. Och vi kan också se att dagsmomentum är vid nivåer där vi tidigare har sett att det har bildats toppar.

COT (Commitment of Traders Report) visar att de kommersiella handlarna säljer och säljer. Så som det ser ut nu, gör det antingen innan en topp eller precis innan det börjar med en större trend uppåt. Det normala är dock att vi skall vara beredda att sälja av vid tecken på svaghet. När COT visar att de kommersiella handlarna istället har ökat sina innehav skall vi åter leta efter en köpsignal. Då skall den röda kurvan på bilden vara i den översta delen.

För att minska risken kan du sälja av en del av ditt innehav runt nuvarande nivåer. Och/eller att du säljer av om silver faller under 10 dagars lägsta.

Säsongsmönstret för silver föreslår att vi har en nedgång till den 4-7 oktober men härifrån kan det sedan åter bli fart uppåt. Vi hade nedåtriktade tidscykler av det mindre slaget till den 1-4 oktober. Vi har sedan den 21 oktober att bevaka.

En större tidscykel kommer in, toppar, den 7 november och föreslår att det är en stor topp som kommer att stå sig i många månader. Ibland blir dessa datum dock tvärtom och vi måste därmed bevaka den riktning silver har in i denna period.

Närmsta vanliga rekylstöd hittar vi vid $3176.5 och därefter kommer $3068.5 och sedan $2960. Det finns ett stöd redan vid $3310 men det är inte så vanligt. När det har varit en stark utveckling är det däremot vanligare att detta stöd kommer i spel och det gör att det helt klart är värt att bevaka.

Den uppgång som silver har gjort har som mest varit 35.78% vilket är mycket nära de tidigare uppgångar som silver har gjort (43.7%, 36.5%, 37.1%). Det måste till speciella nyheter för att vi skall se att investerarna köper på sig mer silver.

En rekyl som håller sig över $3000 gör att vi kommer ner till nivåer där vi åter kommer att ha en bra risk/förlustkvot för att ta en köpsignal.

Slutsats: Silver håller sig fortsatt under 38.2% motståndet och det kommer att krävas speciella nyheter för att vi skall se att det drar iväg uppåt. Närmsta nivå som då kommer i spel är $3797. Annars finns det en risk för att vi kommer att se att investerarna får kalla fötter och då ser vi en rekyl som helst inte skall underskrida $3000.

[box]Denna analys publiceras på Råvarumarknaden.se med tillstånd och i samarbete med Axier Equities.[/box]

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Analys

Crude prices hold gains amid fresh tariff threats

Publicerat

33 minuter sedan

den

25 mars, 2025

Redaktionen

Brent crude prices have held onto gains after rising for four consecutive days, increasing by USD 2.8 per barrel over the past week (since last Tuesday). Late last week, we saw a significant uptick in prices, primarily driven by U.S. sanctions on Iran and a surge in speculative long positions, which rose by as much as 45 million barrels week-on-week (WoW).

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Today, crude prices remain supported as fresh threats from the U.S. president add to upward momentum. President Trump has signaled that he will impose a hefty 25% tariff on countries purchasing crude oil from Venezuela, further tightening the global supply side. This move is naturally bolstering crude prices as concerns over reduced supply growth.

This latest development is particularly challenging for China’s private refiners (Teapots), which are already facing weak refining margins and excess capacity. The imposition of tariffs on Venezuelan crude could exacerbate these difficulties, making it even harder for these refineries to stay competitive.

As of now, Brent crude is trading at USD 73.3 per barrel, having increased by USD 0.2 per barrel since the market opening.

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Analys

Crude oil comment: Ticking higher as tariff-panic eases. Demand growth and OPEC+ will be key

Publicerat

24 timmar sedan

den

24 mars, 2025

Redaktionen

Higher last week along with equities and Iran sanctions. Brent crude gained 2.4% last week. It closed the week at USD 72.16/b and traded within a range of USD 69.9 – 72.51/b with the high of the week being set on Friday. New US sanctions towards Iran was one of the drivers while a continued rebound in global equities was an important ingredient as well. Brent crude is up 0.2% this morning at USD 72.3/b along with positive equities.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

First round panic over harsh Trump tariffs is lifting with hopes for more targeted tariffs. Concerns for global economic growth and oil demand growth due to unexpectedly harsh Trump tariffs initiated a sharp selloff in equities as well as oil. Crude oil and equities have rebounded together as the first-round panic on Trump tariffs has lifted. Equity futures are rising 0.5% or more this morning on hopes that the next round of Trump tariffs will be more targeted and less broadly damaging. Looking at equities this morning one should expect Brent to move yet higher today.

Speculators are putting money back into the market. Net long speculative positions rose 45 mb over the week to Tuesday last week following an almost non-stop selloff since late January.

No oil market surplus yet. The question is mid-year onwards. It’s about oil demand growth and OPEC+. The global oil market is not yet running a surplus, but it will likely do so by mid-year. Key will be:

1) How will global oil demand growth develop in response to Trump tariffs?

2) Will OPEC+ decide to lift production yet higher after its first hike in April?

OPEC+ has already decided to lift production in April. Our impression is that that decision was partially influenced by Donald Trump asking for more oil and a lower oil price. I.e. that OPEC+ (controlled by Russia and Saudi Arabia) now has a slightly different approach to how they set production targets. I.e. that it is no longer just about price but also about the political relationship with Donald Trump. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will meet on 3 April to decide what to do in May.

Net long speculative positions in Brent crude and WTI rose 45 mb over week to Tuesday last week.

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Analys

Oil prices climb, but fundamentals will keep rallies in check

Publicerat

7 dagar sedan

den

18 mars, 2025

Redaktionen

Brent crude prices have risen for three consecutive days, gaining USD 1.7 per barrel since last Thursday’s close. On Friday afternoon, prices briefly dipped to USD 69.9 per barrel before rebounding to a high of USD 71.8 per barrel yesterday morning. As of this morning, Brent crude is trading at USD 71.67 per barrel, up USD 0.77 per barrel since midnight.

Why?

1. Chinese economic data
Two days ago, China released better-than-expected consumption, investment, and industrial production data for the start of the year, signaling economic resilience despite the need for further stimulus. With Donald Trump’s tariffs posing a risk to growth, China has responded by committing to policies aimed at boosting incomes, stabilizing equity and real estate markets, and reviving economic consumption – all of which naturally support crude and refined product demand.

2. U.S. strikes on Yemen’s Houthis
The U.S. airstrikes on Yemen’s Houthis on Sunday, March 16 served as a stark reminder of geopolitical risk, a factor that has not been fully priced into the market recently.

3. Rising tensions in the ME
Escalating tensions in the Middle East are currently (short-term) overshadowing concerns about a potential global oversupply. Overnight, Israel launched a series of military strikes on Gaza, breaking a nearly two-month ceasefire.

4. U.S. sanctions on Iran
Iran’s Oil Minister stated over the weekend (March 15) that Iranian oil exports are “unstoppable” and that Iran will not relinquish its share in the global oil market. The new U.S. administration has already imposed sanctions on Iranian crude, but these have yet to impact production levels significantly.

As of February 2025, Iran’s crude production stood at 3.23 million barrels per day (bpd), remaining above 3 million bpd since September 2023 (Platts data). Of this, Iran exports approximately 1.7 million bpd. For comparison, under Trump’s previous presidency, the U.S. withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, and Iranian crude production fell to 1.95 million bpd by August 2020, significantly reducing its export capacity.

If the Trump administration reintroduces maximum pressure sanctions on Iran, the market impact could be substantial. In a worst-case scenario, where Iran loses its entire 1.7 million bpd of exports, and if Saudi Arabia or other major producers do not immediately compensate for the loss, global oil prices could theroretically see an upside of as much as USD 10 per barrel (Platts).

Bearish fundamentals still loom:
Despite these bullish factors, crude remains on track for a quarterly loss due to fundamental market weaknesses. Escalating global trade tensions threaten oil demand. OPEC+ is set to increase production from April, adding additional supply to a market already at risk of oversupply.

As a result, while geopolitical risks and bullish headlines provide short-term support to prices, SEB: forecasts that fundamental market conditions limit the potential for sustained price rallies.

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