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Silver versus platina

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Teknisk analys på guld från Axier EquitiesSedan silverpriset toppade i början av april i år har det fallit tillbaka från toppnoteringen kring 50 USD per troy ounce och har sedan etablerat sig kring dagens nivå om 32 USD per troy ounce. Under samma period har guldpriset fortsatt sin upptrend. Givet detta kan silver anses vara ett köp, i alla fall för den som ser det som ett relativitetsköp. Det kan vara så, men frågan är om inte platina erbjuder ett ännu bättre tillfälle till köp?

Först av allt, låt oss titta på platinapriset relativt silver och guld ur ett historiskt perspektiv. Genom att använda platinapriset i förhållande till de övriga ädelmetallerna kan vi se hur de andra metallerna handlas relativt varandra både nu och historiskt. I dag är ration platina/guld lägre än 1,0 vilket indikerar att platinapriset är lägre än guldpriset, något som är tämligen sällsynt. Det normala är att platinapriset handlas över priset på guld

Guldgraf

Notera också att platina handlas till låga nivåer jämfört med silverpriset, endast femtio gånger dyrare. Siffran kan förefalla hög, men det är faktiskt ”bara” som är det ordet som gäller. Senaste gången vi såg motsvarande prisrelation, 1:50 mellan silver och platina var 1985. Nivån brukar således vara betydligt högre.

Silvergraf

En annan faktor som gör att vi anser att det är intressant att titta på platina är att guld och silver handlas en bra bit över produktionskostnaden, något som inte är fallet med platina. Precis som allt annat har cash-kostnaden för att utvinna ett troy ounce guld stigit, och den närmar sig nu 600 USD per troy ounce. Silver kostar närmare 5 USD per troy ounce, givet att vi talar green field gruvbrytning utan möjligheter att dra fördel av produktionen av basmetaller som zink och bly.

Analysteamet på Standard Bank konstaterar att “från ett kostnadsperspektiv så är platina köpvärt till priser under 1.550 USD per troy ounce” Vi kan bara hålla med dem om detta.Eftersom silvret i dag handlas till ett pris om cirka 32 USD per troy ounce så säljs det till över 600 procent av produktionskostnaderna, samma siffra är 200 procent för guldet. Platina däremot säljs till ett pris på råvarubörserna som ligger i närheten av produktionskostnaderna. Det betyder att silver och guldpriset kan komma att falla betydligt mer än platinapriset innan producenterna, det vill säga gruvorna, gör åtstramningar i fråga om fortsatt produktion för att minska sina förluster. Enligt lagen om tillgång och efterfrågan vet vi att minskad produktion ger ett minskat utbud, något som höjer priset, allt annat lika. Det finns därför anledningen att tro att priset på platina kan vara ett betydligt bet än det både guld och silver.

Platina startar en tillfällig uppgång. Men sen då?

När vi senast gjorde en teknisk analys på Platina var priset 1 604 USD/oz och datumet var den 1 november. Det första av våra uppgångsmål för hösten var redan infriat och det andra, på 1 670 USD/oz var nästan nått i och med en notering i 1 661 USD/oz. Även om det fanns utrymme för en avslutande uppgång för att helt infria målet, var nya nedgångar sedan att vänta eftersom den långsiktiga trenden var fallande.

De senaste fyra veckorna har Platina följt kartan mycket trofast. Vi fick en avslutande uppgång till 1 676 USD/oz den 9 november, men där tog kraften slut. Uppgången var fullbordad och vårt mål på 1 670 USD/oz som vi satte redan i början av oktober, var infriat till fullo.

I den efterföljande nedgången, som pågår än idag, är noteringen i 1526 USD/oz i fredags, den lägsta hittills. Frågan är förstås om denna nedgång på 9 procent från toppen, ska räcka? Ja, tillfälligtvis bör den göra det i alla fall.

De senaste tre månaderna har Platina skapat en fallande trend och sammanbinder vi topparna i denna nedgång, får vi en trendlinje som idag har värdet 1 618 USD/oz (se diagrammet). Denna trendlinje bör nu testas igen.

Datummässigt är det början av nästa vecka, 5-7 december som kommer att ge oss viktiga ledtrådar om den fortsatta utvecklingen i Platina. En topp i detta tidsfönster varnar för fortsatta nedgångar, medan en tydlig lågpunkt talar för att den fallande trendlinjen kan komma att ge vika under vintern.

Eftersom vi fortfarande lever med informationen att en nedgång mot 1100-1200 under vintern inte är utesluten, ser vi alla uppgångar som tillfälliga i en fallande marknad tills vi får signaler om något annat. En första signal om trendändring skulle vara om den fallande trendlinjen på 1618 USD/oz bryts. Och en ny långsiktig uppgång anser vi har påbörjats den dag som Platina stänger över motståndet 1658-1676 USD/oz.

Du kan handla PLATINA med följande minifutures:
Uppgång MINILONG PLAT A med en hävstång kring 4,56
Nedgång: MINISHRT PLAT D med en hävstång kring 4,61

Läs mer om minifutures på RBS hemsida

[box]Denna analys publiceras på Råvarumarknaden.se med tillstånd och i samarbete med Axier Equities.[/box]

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Den tekniska analysen har producerats av Axier Equities. Informationen är rapporterad i god tro och speglar de aktuella åsikterna hos medarbetarna, dessa kan ändras utan varsel. Axier Equities tar inget ansvar för handlingar baserade på informationen.

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Analys

OPEC+ will likely unwind 500 kb/d of voluntary quotas in October. But a full unwind of 1.5 mb/d in one go could be in the cards

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Down to mid-60ies as Iraq lifts production while Saudi may be tired of voluntary cut frugality. The Brent December contract dropped 1.6% yesterday to USD 66.03/b. This morning it is down another 0.3% to USD 65.8/b. The drop in the price came on the back of the combined news that Iraq has resumed 190 kb/d of production in Kurdistan with exports through Turkey while OPEC+ delegates send signals that the group will unwind the remaining 1.65 mb/d (less the 137 kb/d in October) of voluntary cuts at a pace of 500 kb/d per month pace.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Signals of accelerated unwind and Iraqi increase may be connected. Russia, Kazakhstan and Iraq were main offenders versus the voluntary quotas they had agreed to follow. Russia had a production ’debt’ (cumulative overproduction versus quota) of close to 90 mb in March this year while Kazakhstan had a ’debt’ of about 60 mb and the same for Iraq. This apparently made Saudi Arabia angry this spring. Why should Saudi Arabia hold back if the other voluntary cutters were just freeriding? Thus the sudden rapid unwinding of voluntary cuts. That is at least one angle of explanations for the accelerated unwinding.

If the offenders with production debts then refrained from lifting production as the voluntary cuts were rapidly unwinded, then they could ’pay back’ their ’debts’ as they would under-produce versus the new and steadily higher quotas.

Forget about Kazakhstan. Its production was just too far above the quotas with no hope that the country would hold back production due to cross-ownership of oil assets by international oil companies. But Russia and Iraq should be able to do it.

Iraqi cumulative overproduction versus quotas could reach 85-90 mb in October. Iraq has however steadily continued to overproduce by 3-5 mb per month. In July its new and gradually higher quota came close to equal with a cumulative overproduction of only 0.6 mb that month. In August again however its production had an overshoot of 100 kb/d or 3.1 mb for the month. Its cumulative production debt had then risen to close to 80 mb. We don’t know for September yet. But looking at October we now know that its production will likely average close to 4.5 mb/d due to the revival of 190 kb/d of production in Kurdistan. Its quota however will only be 4.24 mb/d. Its overproduction in October will thus likely be around 250 kb/d above its quota  with its production debt rising another 7-8 mb to a total of close to 90 mb.

Again, why should Saudi Arabia be frugal while Iraq is freeriding. Better to get rid of the voluntary quotas as quickly as possible and then start all over with clean sheets.

Unwinding the remaining 1.513 mb/d in one go in October? If OPEC+ unwinds the remaining 1.513 mb/d of voluntary cuts in one big go in October, then Iraq’s quota will be around 4.4 mb/d for October versus its likely production of close to 4.5 mb/d for the coming month..

OPEC+ should thus unwind the remaining 1.513 mb/d (1.65 – 0.137 mb/d) in one go for October in order for the quota of Iraq to be able to keep track with Iraq’s actual production increase.

October 5 will show how it plays out. But a quota unwind of at least 500 kb/d for Oct seems likely. An overall increase of at least 500 kb/d in the voluntary quota for October looks likely. But it could be the whole 1.513 mb/d in one go. If the increase in the quota is ’only’ 500 kb/d then Iraqi cumulative production will still rise by 5.7 mb to a total of 85 mb in October.

Iraqi production debt versus quotas will likely rise by 5.7 mb in October if OPEC+ only lifts the overall quota by 500 kb/d in October. Here assuming historical production debt did not rise in September. That Iraq lifts its production by 190 kb/d in October to 4.47 mb/d (August level + 190 kb/d) and that OPEC+ unwinds 500 kb/d of the remining quotas in October when they decide on this on 5 October.

Iraqi production debt versus quotas
Source: SEB calculations, assumptions and graph, Bloomberg actual production data to August
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Analys

Modest draws, flat demand, and diesel back in focus

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

U.S. commercial crude inventories posted a marginal draw last week, falling by 0.6 million barrels to 414.8 million barrels. Inventories remain 4% below the five-year seasonal average, but the draw is far smaller than last week’s massive 9.3-million-barrel decline. Higher crude imports (+803,000 bl d WoW) and steady refinery runs (93% utilization) helped keep the crude balance relatively neutral.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Yet another drawdown indicates commercial crude inventories continue to trend below the 2015–2022 seasonal norm (~440 million barrels), though at 414.8 million barrels, levels are now almost exactly in line with both the 2023 and 2024 trajectory, suggesting stable YoY conditions (see page 3 attached).

Gasoline inventories dropped by 1.1 million barrels and are now 2% below the five-year average. The decline was broad-based, with both finished gasoline and blending components falling, indicating lower output and resilient end-user demand as we enter the shoulder season post-summer (see page 6 attached).

On the diesel side, distillate inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels, snapping a two-week streak of strong builds. At 125 million barrels, diesel inventories are once again 8% below the five-year average and trending near the low end of the historical range.

In total, commercial petroleum inventories (excl. SPR) slipped by 0.5 million barrels on the week to ish 1,281.5 million barrels. While essentially flat, this ends a two-week streak of meaningful builds, reflecting a return to a slightly tighter situation.

On the demand side, the DOE’s ‘products supplied’ metric (see page 6 attached), a proxy for implied consumption, softened slightly. Total demand for crude oil over the past four weeks averaged 20.5 million barrels per day, up just 0.9% YoY.

Summing up: This week’s report shows a re-tightening in diesel supply and modest draws across the board, while demand growth is beginning to flatten. Inventories remain structurally low, but the tone is less bullish than in recent weeks.

US DOE oil inventories
US crude inventories
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Analys

Are Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure working?

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crude rose 1.6% yesterday. After trading in a range of USD 66.1 – 68.09/b it settled at USD 67.63/b. A level which we are well accustomed to see Brent crude flipping around since late August. This morning it is trading 0.5% higher at USD 68/b. The market was expecting an increase of 230 kb/d in Iraqi crude exports from Kurdistan through Turkey to the Cheyhan port but that has so far failed to materialize. This probably helped to drive Brent crude higher yesterday. Indications last evening that US crude oil inventories likely fell 3.8 mb last week (indicative numbers by API) probably also added some strength to Brent crude late in the session. The market continues to await the much heralded global surplus materializing as rising crude and product inventories in OECD countries in general and the US specifically.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

The oil market is starting to focus increasingly on the successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Especially the attacks on Russian refineries. Refineries are highly complex and much harder to repair than simple crude oil facilities like export pipelines, ports and hubs. It can take months and months to repair complex refineries. It is thus mainly Russian oil products which will be hurt by this. First oil product exports will go down, thereafter Russia will have to ration oil product consumption domestically. Russian crude exports may not be hurt as much. Its crude exports could actually go up as its capacity to process crude goes down. SEB’s Emerging Market strategist Erik Meyersson wrote about the Ukrainian campaign this morning: ”Are Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure working?”. Phillips P O’Brian published an interesting not on this as well yesterday: ”An Update On The Ukrainian Campaign Against Russian Refineries”. It is a pay-for article, but it is well worth reading. Amongst other things it highlights the strategic focus of Ukraine towards Russia’s energy infrastructure. A Ukrainian on the matter also put out a visual representation of the attacks on twitter. We have not verified the data representation. It needs to be interpreted with caution in terms of magnitude of impact and current outage.

Complex Russian oil refineries are sitting ducks in the new, modern long-range drone war. Ukraine is building a range of new weapons as well according to O’Brian. The problem with attacks on Russian refineries is thus on the rise. This will likely be an escalating problem for Russia. And oil products around the world may rise versus the crude oil price while the crude oil price itself may not rise all that much due to this.

Russian clean oil product exports as presented by SEB’s Erik Meyersson in his note this morning.

Russian clean oil product exports
Source: SEB, Kepler, Macrobond

The ICE Gasoil crack and the 3.5% fuel oil crack has been strengthening. The 3.5% crack should have weakened along with rising exports of sour crude from OPEC+, but it hasn’t. Rather it has moved higher instead. The higher cracks could in part be due to the Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries.

The ICE Gasoil crack and the 3.5% fuel oil crack has been strengthening. The 3.5% crack should have weakened along with rising exports of sour crude from OPEC+, but it hasn't. Rather it has moved higher instead. The higher cracks could in part be due to the Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries.
Source: SEB graph and calculations, Bloomberg data

Ukrainian inhabitants graphical representation of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries on Twitter. Highlighting date of attacks, size of refineries and distance from Ukraine. We have not verified the detailed information. And you cannot derive the amount of outage as a consequence of this.

Ukrainian inhabitants graphical representation of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries on Twitter.
Source: Twitter. Not verified
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