Analys
SHB Råvarubrevet 15 juni 2012
Risksentimentet fortsätter att vara slagigt. Sentimentet stärktes av att Spanien sökte hjälplån för att rädda sina banker, QE förhoppningar och starkare kinesisk data men sänktes av ECBs oförändrade policy och Bernankes brist på antydningar om mer QE.
OPEC höll sitt Junimöte och beslutade att låta produktionskvoten ligga kvar på 30 miljoner fat per dag. Nivån bestämdes under decembermötet men flera medlemsländer påtalade att det krävs starkare disciplin framöver då produktionen legat över 30 Md/d. Majoriteten av medlemmarna hävdade att produktionen är för hög eftersom priset fallit. Om nedskärning i produktionen kommer att krävas för att stabilisera priset så kommer det ske i ”Gulf trion” – Saudi, UAE och Kuwait, det är dessa tre länder som har ökat produktionen de senaste 18 månaderna för att kompensera för bortfallet i Libyen förra året. Det är på Gulftrion man ska fokusera nu när vi går mot första juli då de fysiska sanktionerna går igång mot Iran.
Under veckan brakade Aluminium ner till årslägsta och Nickel föll igenom stödet på 17 000 dollar. Det är volatilt och osäkert inför Greklands val på söndag och det är uppenbart att många ligger utanför marknaden i väntan på att Greklandsrisken ska minska med valet.
Valet i Grekland
Osäkerheten är stor inför nyvalet i Grekland på söndag där utgången sannolikt avgör Greklands framtid i eurosamarbetet. Vem som vinner valet lägger grunden för om tidigare avtal med trojkan håller eller om uppgörelsen rivs upp. Bäst för marknaden är om partiet Ny demokrati blir största parti och skapar koalitionsparti med Pasok som både ställer sig bakom uppgörelsen bakom greklands stödpaket. Det skulle köpa tid i den fortsatta hanteringen av skuldkrisen, som inte på något sätt är över även om Ny demokrati och Pasok vinner. Om Syriza vinner ökar osäkerheten om Greklands framtid i eurosamarbetet då partiet vill riva upp avtalet och omförhandla villkoren med trojkan. Oavsett utfall kommer det nog bli en hel del marknadsrörelser.
Bilderna nedan visar hur konsekvenserna av valet kan se ut samt vad ett grekiskt euroutträde kan betyda för eurons framtid.
Förnyelsebar energi
I veckan anordnade Dagens Industri ett seminarium kring förnyelsebar energi. Behovet av investeringar inom alla energislag och allmänhetens acceptans av en stigande elnota är de två främsta utmaningarna vi har för att nå fram med vår långsiktiga energiplan. Energibranschens massiva investeringsprogram, 37 miljarder i år, motsvarar cirka två tredjedelar av vad hela den övriga industrin investerar i Sverige. Förnyelsebara källor har fått en hel del publicitet på senare tid eftersom läget är ganska osäkert. Stödsystemet, det vill säga elcertifikaten, har tappat i värde vilket i kombination med vikande elprisprognoser minskar riskaptiten för dessa investeringar. Det är idag mycket svårare att räkna hem flertalet projekt då överskottet på elcertifikat blivit för stort. Många räknar dock med att de nya kvoterna som träder i kraft nästa år skall minska överskottet och på lite längre sikt hoppas branschen på att klara sig utan dessa subventioner för förnyelsebara projekt. På kort sikt krävs dock väldigt mycket stöd och utveckling inom energieffektivisering för att nå våra satta mål och effekten av råvarukonkurrens, det vill säga ökande livsmedelspriser, påverkan på mark och biologisk mångfald samt konkurrens om skogsråvaran blir alltmer tydlig. I övrigt diskuterades behovet av ett utsläppssystem där alla var överens om att utsläppssystemet kanske inte fungerar så bra men att resultatet i alla fall blivit att utsläppsfrågan numera alltid lyfts när företagsledningar fattar investeringsbeslut.
IEA presenterade sin senaste publikation ”Energy Technology Perspectives 2012”. ETP ges ut vartannat år med syftet att vägleda beslutsfattare inom energitrender och vad som behöver göras för att bygga upp en ren, säker och konkurrenskraftig energi framöver. Denna skrift är den viktigaste IEA publicerar och klart läsvärd för den som är intresserad av energitrendender.
Handelsbankens Råvaruindex

Handelsbankens råvaruindex består av de underliggande indexen för respektive råvara. Vikterna är bestämda till hälften från värdet av global produktion och till hälften från likviditeten i terminskontrakten.
[box]SHB Råvarubrevet är producerat av Handelsbanken och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]
Ansvarsbegränsning
Detta material är producerat av Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) i fortsättningen kallad Handelsbanken. De som arbetar med innehållet är inte analytiker och materialet är inte oberoende investeringsanalys. Innehållet är uteslutande avsett för kunder i Sverige. Syftet är att ge en allmän information till Handelsbankens kunder och utgör inte ett personligt investeringsråd eller en personlig rekommendation. Informationen ska inte ensamt utgöra underlag för investeringsbeslut. Kunder bör inhämta råd från sina rådgivare och basera sina investeringsbeslut utifrån egen erfarenhet.
Informationen i materialet kan ändras och också avvika från de åsikter som uttrycks i oberoende investeringsanalyser från Handelsbanken. Informationen grundar sig på allmänt tillgänglig information och är hämtad från källor som bedöms som tillförlitliga, men riktigheten kan inte garanteras och informationen kan vara ofullständig eller nedkortad. Ingen del av förslaget får reproduceras eller distribueras till någon annan person utan att Handelsbanken dessförinnan lämnat sitt skriftliga medgivande. Handelsbanken ansvarar inte för att materialet används på ett sätt som strider mot förbudet mot vidarebefordran eller offentliggörs i strid med bankens regler.
Analys
An Israeli attack on Iran moves closer as Trump’s bully-diplomacy has reach a dead end

Brent rising a meager 1% as CNN says Israel prepares to attack Iran. Brent crude traded in a narrow range of USD 64.85 – 66.0/b yesterday and ended down 0.2% to USD 65.38/b along with US equities down 0.4% while it got some support from a 0.3% softer USD. Iran’s Khamenei yesterday that it was outrageous for the US to say it won’t allow Iran to enrich uranium, that the US should not talk nonsense and that Iran’s uranium enrichment is absolutely non-negotiable. These statements did little to the oil price yesterday. But CNN reporting today that Israel is preparing to strike nuclear facilities in Iran is making Brent rise 1% to USD 66.1/b. Either the impact on the oil market in case of an attack is assumed to be low or the probability for an attack is assumed to be low. Because a 1% gain is not much when we are talking bombs in the Middle East major oil producing region.

Trump bully-diplomacy has reach a dead end as Iran clings to its nuclear capabilities. Iran will naturally never give up its ability to produce a nuclear weapon after having seen what Russia has done to Ukraine when they gave up their nuclear weapons and what the US previously has done to Iraq and Libya. Israel can never accept that Iran can have nuclear weapons. And there is the standoff. So far the market is not pricing in much risk for an Israeli strike on Iran. Trump is probably not supporting Israel with respect to an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities as it could drag the US into a wider war in the region. Israel however knows that the US will always have its back even if the US is not giving a green light for an attack. To our understanding it now takes very little time for Iran to produce weapons grade enriched uranium. That is something Israel cannot accept. Logic thus leads to the conclusion that Israel will strike Iranian nuclear facilities at some point given Khamenei’s explicit statement that Iran will continue its enrichment. The finer detail is however whether we are talking about nuclear power plant grade enrichment or weapons grade enrichment. Another close to certain point is that Iran will eventually make a nuclear bomb and there is essentially nothing Israel can do about it. Israel can either choose to accept that this will eventually be the outcome or they can try to prevent it or delay it as long as possible. The latter seems the likely first step. I.e. an eventual attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Then the question is when. CNN reporting today that Israel is preparing an attack indicates that this could happen sooner rather than later.
US API yesterday released data indicating that US inventories of crude and products fell 2.1 mb (Crude + 2.5 mb, Gasoline -3.2 mb and Distillates -1.4 mb). That is a seasonally counter cyclical draw when US commercial inventories normally rise 3-6 mb per week. Surplus is not yet here. Actual data later today at 16:30 CET.
Normal weekly change in US commercial crude and products in mb/week. Week 20 highlighted.

Analys
A lower oil price AND a softer USD will lift global appetite for oil

Brent starting in read after a week of 2.4% tariff relief gain. Brent crude gained 2.4% (+USD 1.5/b) last week with a close of USD 65.41/b and traded the week in a range of USD 64.53 – 66.63/b. Price gains last week aligned with dissipating tariff angst as China – US trade tariffs were lowered to 10% and 30% respectively. Down from a staggering 125% and 145% though with the risk for a snap-back after 90 days. The low of the week coincided with rumors that an Iran – US nuclear deal was near at hand. But was later downplayed. Such a deal may not add all that much more oil to the market as most of Iran’s oil probably already is in the market through different pathways. Brent crude is pulling back 0.9% this morning to USD 64.9/b while the USD index is declining 0.5% as well. That is usually a positive for the oil price as it makes oil cheaper for all non-USD based consumers. US equity futures are also down 1% this morning. Chinese new and used housing prices fell 0.12% and 0.41% respectively last month with property investments down 10.3% YTD YoY. All weaker than expected. Chinese industrial production YoY however came in at 6.1% and better than the expected 5.7%. Overall a rather weak start of the week nonetheless.

While down this morning, Brent crude is surprisingly not shedding all that much value given the rather bearish backdrop of US equity futures in the red and everyone and their grandmothers forecasting doom and gloom for the oil price.
Speculators added 64 mb to net long positions in Brent crude and WTI over the week to last Tuesday. Most likely as a result of US-China tariffs being shifted down to livable levels. Most headlines and forecasts are however overall very bearish for oil. More oil from OPEC+ in the months to come coupled with expectations for a slowdown in global oil demand growth due to the US tariff trade war.
A lower oil price AND a softer USD will likely bolster global oil demand vs very bearish expectations. Global oil demand growth could surprise to the upside amid all the gloom. In EUR/b terms the the current price of Brent crude is now 22% lower than the average price in 2024. A softer oil price AND a softer USD is making oil considerably cheaper in the eyes of the global oil consumer ex-US. And that portion of global oil demand after all accounts for around 80% of global consumption. We could thus quickly see a Brent crude price down 30% versus 2024 average for 80% of the world’s consumers with a little further decline in USD-oil and the USD itself. This will likely help to boost oil demand globally. Remember also that a very important reason for why OPEC+ wanted to lift its oil production in May and June was to meet sharply stronger Middle East summer oil demand. A note on oil demand. India’s road fuel demand was up 5% YoY in April while its PMI rose to 58.2%. The IEA expects India oil demand to rise by only 2.3% to 5.77 mb/d YoY (+130 kb/d) while a 5% demand growth would yield a demand growth of 282 kb/d YoY.
OPEC+ has NOT abandoned market control. This is not 2014/15/16 or 2020. It is important to remember that the group has not abandoned its general plan of adding 2.2 mb/d from April 2025 to December 2026. The path will be decided on a monthly basis and can be moved both up AND down. The group has NOT abandoned market control. Though it is on a gradual pace to retake 2.2 mb/d of market share. US shale oil production has to stand back to make room and global consumers will respond with stronger demand growth in response to a lower oil price made additionally cheaper by a softening USD.
Brent crude forward curve in front-end backwardation. Surplus is not yet here.

Brent crude in USD/b. Little upside conviction to be found anywhere.

US oil drilling rig count fell by 1 last week to second lowest since December 2021. No real shedding of drilling quite yet. But we’ll likely see a drop of 5-10% over the coming months. It could drop as much as 5-10 rigs per week.

Net long speculative positions in Brent crude + WTI rebounded 64 mb to Tuesday last week.

Analys
Oil slips as Iran signals sanctions breakthrough

After a positive start to the week, crude oil prices rose on Monday and Tuesday, with Brent peaking at USD 66.8 per barrel on Tuesday evening. Since then, prices have drifted lower, declining by roughly 5% to around USD 63.5 per barrel – below where the week began during Monday’s opening.

Iran is currently in the spotlight, having signaled its willingness to sign a nuclear deal with the U.S. in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. Ali Shamkhani, a senior political, military, and nuclear adviser, spoke publicly about the ongoing negotiations. He indicated that Iran would commit to never developing nuclear weapons and could dismantle its stockpile of highly enriched uranium – provided there is immediate sanctions relief. While nothing is finalized, the rhetoric is notable and could theoretically lead to additional Iranian barrels entering the global market.
It’s worth recalling that in mid-March, Iran’s Oil Minister declared that the country’s oil exports were “unstoppable”, and that Iran would not relinquish its share of the global oil market – even in the face of new U.S. sanctions introduced earlier this year. In practice, however, this claim has proven exaggerated.
In February 2025, Iran’s crude production rose to 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd), staying above 3 million bpd since September 2023. Of this, approximately 1.74 million bpd were exported – primarily to Chinese private refiners (”teapots”). Early in the year, shipments to these teapots continued largely uninterrupted, as they have limited exposure to the U.S. financial system and remained willing buyers despite sanctions.
However, Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign has gradually constrained Iran’s ability to ship crude to China. By March 2025, Chinese imports of Iranian oil peaked at approximately 1.8 million bpd. In April, imports dropped sharply to around 1.3 million bpd, reflecting stricter U.S. sanctions targeting Chinese refineries and port operators involved in handling Iranian crude. Preliminary data for May suggest a further decline, with Iranian oil arrivals potentially falling to 1.0–1.2 million bpd, as Chinese refiners adopt a more cautious stance.
As a result, any immediate sanctions relief stemming from a nuclear agreement could unlock an additional 0.8 million bpd of Iranian crude for the global market – an undeniably bearish development for prices.
On the other hand, failure to reach a deal would likely mean continued or even intensified U.S. pressure under the Trump administration. In a worst-case scenario – where Iran loses its remaining 1.0–1.2 million bpd of exports – and if Saudi Arabia or other major producers do not promptly step in to offset the shortfall, global oil prices could experience an immediate upside of USD 4–6 per barrel.
Meanwhile, both OPEC and the IEA expect the oil market to remain well-supplied in 2025, with supply growth exceeding demand. OPEC holds its demand growth forecast at 1.3 million bpd, driven mainly by emerging markets in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. In contrast, the IEA sees more modest growth of 740,000 bpd, citing macroeconomic challenges and accelerating electric vehicle adoption – particularly in China, where petrochemical demand is now the primary growth engine.
On the supply side, OPEC has revised down its non-OPEC+ growth estimate to 800,000 bpd, citing weaker prices and reduced upstream investment. The IEA, however, expects global supply to expand by 1.6 million bpd, led by the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina. Should OPEC+ proceed with unwinding voluntary cuts, the IEA warns that the market could face a surplus of up to 1.4 million bpd in 2025 – potentially exerting renewed downward pressure on prices.
_______________
EIA data released yesterday showed U.S. Crude inventories unexpectedly rose 3.45 million barrels with a drop in exports and despite a larger than expected increase in refinery runs.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excl. SPR) rose by 3.45 million barrels last week, reaching 441.8 million barrels – approximately 6% below the five-year seasonal average. Total gasoline inventories declined by 1 million barrels and now sit around 3% below the five-year average. Distillate (diesel) fuel inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels and remain roughly 16% below the seasonal norm. Meanwhile, propane/propylene inventories climbed by 2.2 million barrels but are still 9% below their five-year average. Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories rose by 4.9 million barrels over the week – overall a neutral report with limited immediate price impacts.


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