Analys

Ingen tvärbroms på råvarornas supercykel

Publicerat

11 år sedan

den

29 november, 2013

När Kina ställer om ekonomin till att drivas mer av inhemsk konsumtion lär det leda till både lägre tillväxttal och ändrad råvarukonsumtion. Betyder det att råvarornas så kallade supercykel är över? Både ja och nej.

Kina håller i snabb takt på att ställa om ekonomin från infrastrukturinvesteringar och export av lågförädlade varor som största drivkrafter, till en mer uthållig tillväxt driven av inhemsk konsumtion. Det kommer att leda till lägre tillväxttal framöver, och till en helt annan profil på Kinas råvarukonsumtion.

I det stora perspektivet kan omställningen av Kinas tillväxtmodell bara beskrivas som helt naturlig. Det är en utveckling som ska komma när människor får det bättre, blir bättre utbildade, ökar medvetenheten om miljöpåverkan och så vidare. Drivkraften hos invånarna skiftar: Från att arbeta maximalt för att kunna skicka hem pengar till anhöriga, arbetar de för att njuta mer av livet eller kunna leva lite mer västerländskt.

Men utvecklingen har också lett till resonemang runt att råvarornas så kallade ”supercykel” (se faktaruta), skapad av Kinas oerhörda tillväxt de senaste tio åren, är över. Det finns ett väldigt tydligt samband mellan å ena sidan hur nationer tar sig ur fattigdom och utvecklar en medelklass, och å andra sidan hur efterfrågan på råvaror ser ut. Förenklat kan man säga att industrialisering leder till stigande ekonomiskt välstånd som bygger på att en fysisk infrastruktur utvecklas, med allt från bostäder och vägar till fabriker, bilar, broar, järnvägar och flygplatser. I Kina har dessa infrastrukturprojekt antagit närmast ofattbara proportioner under de senaste två decennierna. Det har skapat en gigantisk efterfrågan på råvaror, som i sin tur lett till kraftiga prisökningar. Det mest framträdande exemplet är koppar som under de senaste tio åren stigit med 390 procent.

Kina har under de senaste tio åren gått från cirka 3 000 dollar i BNP per capita till strax under 10 000 dollar. Just det intervallet brukar vara den mest råvaruintensiva fasen i ett lands utveckling. Efter att BNP per capita överstigit 12 000 dollar planar råvarukonsumtionen normalt ut, och ändrar framför allt karaktär.

Det kan dock visa sig vara lite tidigt att dra slutsatser angående den kinesiska drakens aptit på de mer basala råvarorna såsom metaller och annat som behövs för infrastrukturbyggen. Kina är som bekant en gigantisk nation. Det är dessutom en nation med stora regionala skillnader. Detta gör att det kan vara vanskligt att använda samma analys som i andra, mindre länder. De regioner i Kina som nått längst i ”industrialiseringen” och som vid utgången av 2012 låg över 20 000 dollar i BNP per capita är Beijing och Shanghai, samt de regioner som ligger i dessa megastäders närhet. Det är dock viktigt att ha i åtanke att i dessa regioner bor ”endast” cirka 60 miljoner invånare. Tittar man på hur stor del av Kinas befolkning som ligger över 12 000 dollar i BNP per capita så landar summan på strax under en halv miljard invånare. Det är närmast ofattbart stora siffror.

Men – det betyder i sin tur att 850 miljoner människor, framför allt i inlandet, ligger kvar på väldigt låga nivåer när det gäller välstånd, utveckling och urbanisering. Det är 100 miljoner fler invånare än vad som bor i hela Europa (inklusive Ryssland). Dessa 850 miljoner har inte gjort den resa som den mer utvecklade delen av Kina gjort, och det är dit som en allt större del av tillverkning och ysselsättning nu flyttar.

Megastäderna har nämligen blivit väldigt dyra för arbetssökande att flytta till, och löneinflationen har varit mycket hög i de heta regionerna. Det skapar ett tryck att utveckla nya regioner inne i landet, och öka urbaniseringsgraden där. Och just urbanisering är inte bara väldigt en väldig drivkraft i efterfrågan på råvaror – det är också en av de starkaste trender vi ser i världen. Enligt FN:s prognoser kommer det redan år 2030 finnas 221 städer i Kina som är större än Stockholm, och det kommer att finnas 23 städer med fler än fem miljoner invånare.

Urbaniseringstakten är i princip lika hög var man än tittar i Asien, oavsett urbaniseringsgraden. Med andra ord finns det få anledningar att tro att urbaniseringen i Kina ska avstanna, även om landet nu nått en bit över 50 procents urbaniseringsgrad. Som jämförelse ligger motsvarande siffra i Japan runt 90 procent, och där fortsätter folk att flytta till städer. Liksom här i Sverige…

Biltätheten, som är intimt knuten till den ekonomiska aktiviteten, är också den ojämnt spridd mellan den utvecklade delen av landet och de delar som inte kommit lika långt. En växande bilflotta kommer inte bara att påverka förbrukningen av bensin och diesel – den kräver också fortsatta stora investeringar i infrastruktur som vägar, broar och tunnlar.

Kinas enorma storlek i sig gör alltså att nationella jämförelser blir svåra. Skillnaderna mellan olika provinser är väldigt stora och skillnaderna mellan stad och landsbygd är enorma. Det finns all anledning att tro att Kina kommer att ha väldigt stor påverkan på den globala råvaruefterfrågan under lång tid ännu. Därför måste vi svara både ja och nej på frågan om supercykeln är över: Ja, den är över för de utvecklade och industrialiserade regionerna. Men också nej: För en gigantisk del av befolkningen har den bara börjat.

Relaterade ämnen:handelsbanken analys kina supercykel

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SEB – Råvarukommentarer, 2 december 2013

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Short term stabilisation for gold

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Analys

Crude oil comment: A little sideways with new tests towards the 80-line likely

Publicerat

3 dagar sedan

den

17 januari, 2025

Redaktionen

Brent moves into sideways trading around USD 81.5/b with new tests to the 80-line likely. Brent crude traded down 0.9% yesterday to a close of USD 81.29/b and traded as low as USD 80.39/b within the day. This morning it is gaining 0.3% to USD 81.6/b. No obvious major driver for that and the move in oil is well in line with higher industrial metals this morning. The technical picture for Brent 1M is still overbought in terms of RSI at 70.2. But as Brent now has traded a bit sideways for some days the overbought bearish calculus has started to ease a bit. But new tests towards the 80-line seems likely with current RSI at 70.2.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Scott Bessent says he fully supports harder sanctions on Russian oil exports if Donald Trump wishes to use such a tool in the coming negotiations with Russia over Ukraine. That may add some support to oil this morning. The latest US sanctions towards Russia clearly have an effect with one example being the tanker Bhilva which has made a U-turn back towards Russia after having been on course to India (Bloomberg).

US EIA projects US liquids growth of 538 kb/d/y in 2025. The US EIA released its monthly STEO report earlier this week. What is clear is that the boom-years in US oil production are behind us for now. But exactly pinning down at what level US oil production will grow in 2025 is hard. The EIA forecast for US hydrocarbon liquids looks the following:

Estimated US crude oil production growth is projected to be virtually zero in 2026. But including all sources of liquids it still sums up to 312 kb/d y/y in growth. A lot or a little? If global oil demand in 2026 only grows with 1 mb/d in 2026, then the US will cover 30% of global demand growth. That is a lot. For 2025 the EIA expects a total growth in US liquids of 538 kb/d y/y.

Smaller losses in existing shale oil production. If we instead look at EIA estimates for US shale oil production right here and now and how its components are changing, we see that 1) New monthly production is 666 kb/d, 2) Losses in existing production is 622 kb/d and thus 3) Net monthly growth is 44 kb/d m/m which equals 4) A net marginal annualized growth of 12*44 of 523 kb/d/y. What stands out here is that the EIA in its December report estimated that this marginal annualization only equated to 378 kb/d/y. So, it has been lifted markedly in the latest report. It is however on a downward trajectory and as such the EIA estimate in the table above of y/y growth for US crude oil of 331 kb/d/y may be sensible.

US shale oil new production, losses in existing production, net new production and marginal, annualized production growth in kb/d/y.

Change in EIA STEO forecast from Dec-24 to Jan-25. What stands out is that estimated losses in existing production is adjusted lower by 16.8 kb/d since November. That is the marginal monthly change. In other words, production in existing production is falling less agressively than estimated in December. But a monthly decline of 622 kb/d/m is of course still massive.

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Analys

Crude oil comment: The rally has legs, but it takes time to wash out ingrained bearish sentiment from H2-24

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4 dagar sedan

den

16 januari, 2025

Redaktionen

Brent crude jumped jet another 2.7%. Brent crude jumped 2.7% yesterday to USD 82.03/b following a pull-back on Tuesday. Intraday it reached USD 82.63/b and its highest level since 26 July last year. Bullish US oil inventory data was a key reason for the jump higher yesterday coming on top of a steady tightening market since early December and fresh US sanctions on Russia last week.

US crude stocks down 17.6 mb since mid-November and total US commercial stocks down 65 mb since mid-July. US crude stocks fell 2 mb last week to its lowest level since April 2022. US crude stocks have declined every week since mid-November with a total of 17.6 mb. Total US commercial oil inventories fell 3.4 mb last week and have been in steady decline of close to 300 kb/d since early July. These declines in US oil stocks are the proof of the pudding in terms of the balance of the global oil market and explains well the rising oil prices since early December.

The IEA estimates a 400 kb/d deficit in H2-24. If so, then all global draws took place in the US. The IEA released its monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) yesterday with an estimate that the global oil market ran a deficit of about 400 kb/d through H2-24. If so, then close to all inventory draws in the whole world solely took place in US inventories which drew down by around 300 kb/d. That is hard to believe.

If we assume that US inventory draws were proportional to the US demand share of the world (about 20%), then global inventory draws in H2-24 probably was closer to 0.3/20% which equals 1.5 mb/d. Maybe a bit high but estimates by FGE indicates that global inventory draws were close to 1.0 mb/d in H2-24 depending on whether you equate on apparent demand or real demand. Higher if equated on real demand.

IEA surplus in 2025 is adjusted down by 200 kb/d. In reality it is now only a surplus of 400 kb/d. We think this surplus estimate will erode further as demand will be adjusted yet higher and supply will be adjusted yet lower going forward. The IEA adjusted 2024 demand higher by 100 kb/d with base effect to 2025 with the same. It also adjusted its non-OPEC production estimate for 2025 down by 100 kb/d. The effect was that call-on-OPEC rose by 200 kb/d for 2025. The IEA still estimates that OPEC must reduce its production by 0.6 mb/d in 2025 to keep market balanced and prices steady. But within that estimate it assumes that FSU increases production by 200 kb/d as if it is not a part of OPEC+. IEA estimate for call-on-OPEC+ thus only declines by 400 kb/d y/y in 2025. We think that this surplus will evaporate as: 1) US production will likely deliver a bit lower than expected. 2) Supply will also disappoint here and there around the world. 3) Global demand estimates will be revised higher for 2024 and 2025.

The rally thus has legs, but the technical picture is still in overbought territory so there will be some pullbacks on the way higher. Unless of course we rally all the way to USD 95/b and THEN we get the technical pullback. The market still seems to have bearish skepticism deeply ingrained in its back following H2-24 doom and gloom and is partially reluctant to trade higher. But that is attitude and not fundamentals.

The Dubai 1-3 mth time-spread is going through the roof as Asian buyers scrambles for supply from the Middle East.

The average 1-3 mth time-spread of Dubai, Brent and WTI is now way up. Lots of room for Brent 1M to move USD 90-95/b

US crude stocks declined by 2 mb last week and total commercial stocks by 3.4 mb.

US commercial crude and product stocks in steady decline since June/July last year. Down 65 mb since mid-July.

US crude stocks at lowest level since 2022.

Brent 1M still overbought with RSI at 72.5. So, pullbacks will happen but from what level. On the upside the next targets are probably USD 87.95/b and USD 92.18/b.

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Analys

Crude oil comment: Fundamentally very tight, but technically overbought

Publicerat

6 dagar sedan

den

14 januari, 2025

Redaktionen

Technical pullback this morning even as the dollar weakens. Brent crude gained another 1.6% yesterday with a close at USD 81.01/b and an intraday high of USD 81.68/b which was the highest level since mid-August. The gain yesterday was supported by strong, further gains in the 1-3 mth time-spreads. This morning Brent is pulling back 0.6% to USD 80.5/b even though the USD is weakening 0.4% while time-spreads are strengthening even further. This makes it look like a technical pullback.

Brent is trading very weak versus current time-spreads. The current price of Brent crude at USD 80.6/b is very low versus where the 1-3 mth time spreads are trading. Brent should typically have traded somewhere between USD 80-95/b with current time-spreads when we compare where this relationship has been trading since the start of 2023. Brent is now trading in the absolute lower range of that with lots of room on the upside.

How long will the new sanctions last? Natural questions are: How long will Donald Trump leave the new sanctions operational? How strictly will they be enforced? How easily could Russia circumvent them?

A bullish H1-25 if Donald Trump leaves sanctions intact to negotiate over Ukraine. If Brent continues to trade around USD 80/b and not much higher, then the underlying assumptions must be that the new sanctions will not be enforced harshly and that they will be lifted by Donald Trump within a couple of months max. Donald Trump could however keep them in place as a leverage versus Putin in the upcoming negotiations over Ukraine. If so, they could stay intact for maybe 6 months or more which would put H1-2025 on a very bullish footing.

Fundamentally very tight, but technically overbought. Market right now looks technically overbought with RSI at 72 but also fundamentally very tight with the Dubai 1-3 mth time-spread at USD 2.74/b, its highest level since September 2023. As such the Brent crude oil price has the potential to coil up for further gains following some washing out of technically overbought dynamics. But maybe the current Asian panic over access to medium sour crude oil fades a bit over time and time-spreads ease with it.

Brent has been on a strengthening path well before the new sanctions. Worth remembering though is that Brent crude has been on a rising trend along with tightening time-spreads since early December. The latest bullishness from new US sanctions comes on top of that. Brent moving higher into the 80ies thus seems highly likely following a near term washout of technical overbought dynamics.

1-3 mth time-spread (average of Dubai, Brent and WTI spreads) versus the Brent 1M price. Very strong, bullish signals from the time-spreads, but Brent 1M is trading at the very lower level of where this relationship has been since the start of 2023. So, plenty of room for Brent 1M to move higher.

Brent 1M is technically overbought with RSI at 73. Pullbacks are likely near term to wash that out. On the low side the USD 70/b line has given solid support since mid-2023.