Analys

Ingen tvärbroms på råvarornas supercykel

Publicerat

12 år sedan

den

29 november, 2013

När Kina ställer om ekonomin till att drivas mer av inhemsk konsumtion lär det leda till både lägre tillväxttal och ändrad råvarukonsumtion. Betyder det att råvarornas så kallade supercykel är över? Både ja och nej.

Kina håller i snabb takt på att ställa om ekonomin från infrastrukturinvesteringar och export av lågförädlade varor som största drivkrafter, till en mer uthållig tillväxt driven av inhemsk konsumtion. Det kommer att leda till lägre tillväxttal framöver, och till en helt annan profil på Kinas råvarukonsumtion.

I det stora perspektivet kan omställningen av Kinas tillväxtmodell bara beskrivas som helt naturlig. Det är en utveckling som ska komma när människor får det bättre, blir bättre utbildade, ökar medvetenheten om miljöpåverkan och så vidare. Drivkraften hos invånarna skiftar: Från att arbeta maximalt för att kunna skicka hem pengar till anhöriga, arbetar de för att njuta mer av livet eller kunna leva lite mer västerländskt.

Men utvecklingen har också lett till resonemang runt att råvarornas så kallade ”supercykel” (se faktaruta), skapad av Kinas oerhörda tillväxt de senaste tio åren, är över. Det finns ett väldigt tydligt samband mellan å ena sidan hur nationer tar sig ur fattigdom och utvecklar en medelklass, och å andra sidan hur efterfrågan på råvaror ser ut. Förenklat kan man säga att industrialisering leder till stigande ekonomiskt välstånd som bygger på att en fysisk infrastruktur utvecklas, med allt från bostäder och vägar till fabriker, bilar, broar, järnvägar och flygplatser. I Kina har dessa infrastrukturprojekt antagit närmast ofattbara proportioner under de senaste två decennierna. Det har skapat en gigantisk efterfrågan på råvaror, som i sin tur lett till kraftiga prisökningar. Det mest framträdande exemplet är koppar som under de senaste tio åren stigit med 390 procent.

Kina har under de senaste tio åren gått från cirka 3 000 dollar i BNP per capita till strax under 10 000 dollar. Just det intervallet brukar vara den mest råvaruintensiva fasen i ett lands utveckling. Efter att BNP per capita överstigit 12 000 dollar planar råvarukonsumtionen normalt ut, och ändrar framför allt karaktär.

Det kan dock visa sig vara lite tidigt att dra slutsatser angående den kinesiska drakens aptit på de mer basala råvarorna såsom metaller och annat som behövs för infrastrukturbyggen. Kina är som bekant en gigantisk nation. Det är dessutom en nation med stora regionala skillnader. Detta gör att det kan vara vanskligt att använda samma analys som i andra, mindre länder. De regioner i Kina som nått längst i ”industrialiseringen” och som vid utgången av 2012 låg över 20 000 dollar i BNP per capita är Beijing och Shanghai, samt de regioner som ligger i dessa megastäders närhet. Det är dock viktigt att ha i åtanke att i dessa regioner bor ”endast” cirka 60 miljoner invånare. Tittar man på hur stor del av Kinas befolkning som ligger över 12 000 dollar i BNP per capita så landar summan på strax under en halv miljard invånare. Det är närmast ofattbart stora siffror.

Men – det betyder i sin tur att 850 miljoner människor, framför allt i inlandet, ligger kvar på väldigt låga nivåer när det gäller välstånd, utveckling och urbanisering. Det är 100 miljoner fler invånare än vad som bor i hela Europa (inklusive Ryssland). Dessa 850 miljoner har inte gjort den resa som den mer utvecklade delen av Kina gjort, och det är dit som en allt större del av tillverkning och ysselsättning nu flyttar.

Megastäderna har nämligen blivit väldigt dyra för arbetssökande att flytta till, och löneinflationen har varit mycket hög i de heta regionerna. Det skapar ett tryck att utveckla nya regioner inne i landet, och öka urbaniseringsgraden där. Och just urbanisering är inte bara väldigt en väldig drivkraft i efterfrågan på råvaror – det är också en av de starkaste trender vi ser i världen. Enligt FN:s prognoser kommer det redan år 2030 finnas 221 städer i Kina som är större än Stockholm, och det kommer att finnas 23 städer med fler än fem miljoner invånare.

Urbaniseringstakten är i princip lika hög var man än tittar i Asien, oavsett urbaniseringsgraden. Med andra ord finns det få anledningar att tro att urbaniseringen i Kina ska avstanna, även om landet nu nått en bit över 50 procents urbaniseringsgrad. Som jämförelse ligger motsvarande siffra i Japan runt 90 procent, och där fortsätter folk att flytta till städer. Liksom här i Sverige…

Biltätheten, som är intimt knuten till den ekonomiska aktiviteten, är också den ojämnt spridd mellan den utvecklade delen av landet och de delar som inte kommit lika långt. En växande bilflotta kommer inte bara att påverka förbrukningen av bensin och diesel – den kräver också fortsatta stora investeringar i infrastruktur som vägar, broar och tunnlar.

Kinas enorma storlek i sig gör alltså att nationella jämförelser blir svåra. Skillnaderna mellan olika provinser är väldigt stora och skillnaderna mellan stad och landsbygd är enorma. Det finns all anledning att tro att Kina kommer att ha väldigt stor påverkan på den globala råvaruefterfrågan under lång tid ännu. Därför måste vi svara både ja och nej på frågan om supercykeln är över: Ja, den är över för de utvecklade och industrialiserade regionerna. Men också nej: För en gigantisk del av befolkningen har den bara börjat.

Relaterade ämnen:handelsbanken analys kina supercykel

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SEB – Råvarukommentarer, 2 december 2013

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Short term stabilisation for gold

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Annons

Analys

Physical easing. Iran risk easing. But Persian Gulf risk cannot fully fade before US war ships are pulled away

Publicerat

6 dagar sedan

den

9 februari, 2026

Redaktionen

Traded down 3.7% last week as Iranian risk faded a bit. Brent crude traded in a range of $65.19 – 69.76/b last week. In the end it traded down 3.7% with a close of $68.05/b. It was unable to challenge the peak of $71.89/b from the previous week when the market got its first nervous shake as Trump threatened Iran with an armada of US war ships.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

The market has started to cool down a bit with US and Iran in talks in Oman on Friday and Brent crude is easing 0.9% this morning to $67.4/b in an extension of that. As we have stated before we think the probability is very low for a scenario where the US attacks Iran in such a way that it risks an uncontrollable escalation with possible large scale disruption of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz and thus a massive spike in the oil price. That would endanger Trump’s mid-term election which is already challenged with unhappy US voters complaining about affordability and that Trump is spending too much time on foreign issues.

A statement by Trump last week that India had agreed not to buy Russian crude turns out to have little substance as India has agreed to no such thing on paper. The statement last week naturally supported oil prices as the market is already struggling with a two tire market with legal versus illegal barrels. There is a lot of friction in the market for sanctioned crude oil barrels from Iran and Russia. If India had agreed not to buy Russian crude oil then the market for legal barrels would have been tighter.

The physical market has been tighter than expected. And the recent concerns over Iranian risk has come on top of that. The market is probably starting calm down regarding the Iranian risk. But the physical tightness is also going to ease gradually over the coming couple of weeks. CPC blend exports averaged 1.5 mb/d last year, but were down to less than 1 mb/d in January due to a combination of factors. Drone attacks by Ukraine in late November. The Tengiz field has been disrupted by fires. Adverse winter weather has also been a problem. US crude oil production has also been disrupted by a fierce winter storm. But these issues are fading with supply reviving over the next couple of weeks.

The physical tightness is likely going to ease over the next couple of weeks. The market may also have started to get used to the Iranian situation. But the Iranian risk premium cannot be fully defused as long as US warships are located where they are with their guns and rockets pointing towards Iran.

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Analys

Brent crude will pull back if the US climbs down its threats towards Iran

Publicerat

3 veckor sedan

den

26 januari, 2026

Redaktionen

Brent crude rose 2.7% last week to $65.88/b with a gain on Friday of 2.8%. Unusually cold US winter weather with higher heating oil demand and likely US oil supply outages was probably part of the bullish drive at the end of last week. But US threats towards Iran with USS Abraham Lincoln being deployed to the Middle East was probably more important.

Brent crude has maintained the gains it got from 8 January onwards when it rose from the $60/b-line and up to around $65/b on the back of Iranian riots where the US added fuel to the fire by threatening to attack Iran in support of the rioters. This morning Brent has tested the upside to $66.54/b. That is short of the $66.82/b from 14 January and Brent has given back part of the early gains this morning and is currently trading close to unchanged versus Friday’s close with a dollar decline of 0.4% not enough to add much boost to the price yet at least.

Brent crude front-month prices in USD/b

The rally in Brent crude from the $60/b-line to its current level of $65-66/b seems to be tightly linked to an elevated risk of the US attacking Iran in support of the rioters. Bloomberg reported on Saturday that the US has dispatched the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and its associated strike group to the Middle East. It is a similar force which the US deployed to the Caribbean Sea just weeks before the 3 January operation where Maduro was captured. The probability of a US/Israeli attack on Iran is pegged at 65-70% by geopolitical risk assessment firms Eurasia Group and Rapidan Energy Group. Such a high probability explains much of the recent rally in Brent crude.

The recent rally in Brent crude is not a signal from the oil market that the much discussed global surplus has been called off. If we look at the shape of the Brent crude oil curve it is currently heavily front-end backwardated with the curve sloping upwards in contango thereafter. It signals front-end tightness or near term geopolitical risk premium followed by surplus. If the market had called off the views of a surplus, then the whole Brent forward curve would have been much flatter and without the intermediate deep dip in the curve. The shape of the Brent curve is telling us that the market is concerned right now for what might happen in Iran, but it still maintains and overall view of surplus and stock building unless OPEC+ cuts back on supply.

It also implies that Brent crude will fall back if the US pulls back from its threats of attacking Iran.

Brent crude forward curves in USD/b.

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Analys

Oil market assigns limited risks to Iranian induced supply disruptions

Publicerat

1 månad sedan

den

12 januari, 2026

Redaktionen

Falling back this morning. Brent crude traded from an intraday low of $59.75/b last Monday to an intraday high of $63.92/b on Friday and a close that day of $63.34/b. Driven higher by the rising riots in Iran. Brent is trading slightly lower this morning at $63.0/b.

Iranian riots and risk of supply disruption in the Middle East takes center stage. The Iranian public is rioting in response to rapidly falling living conditions. The current oppressive regime has been ruling the country for 46 years. The Iranian economy has rapidly deteriorated the latest years along with the mismanagement of the economy, a water crisis, encompassing corruption with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps at the center and with US sanctions on top. The public has had enough and is now rioting. SEB’s EM Strategist Erik Meyersson wrote the following on the Iranian situation yesterday: ”Iran is on the brink – but of what?” with one statement being ”…the regime seems to lack a comprehensive set of solutions to solve the socioeconomic problems”. That is of course bad news for the regime. What can it do? Erik’s takeaway is that it is an open question what this will lead to while also drawing up different possible scenarios.

Personally I fear that this may end very badly for the rioters. That the regime will use absolute force to quash the riots. Kill many, many more and arrest and torture anyone who still dare to protest. I do not have high hopes for a transition to another regime. I bet that Iranian’s telephone lines to its diverse group of autocratic friends currently are running red-hot with ”friendly” recommendations of how to quash the riots. This could easily become the ”Tiananmen Square” moment (1989) for the current Iranian regime.

The risks to the oil market are:

1) The current regime applies absolute force. The riots die out and oil production and exports continue as before. Continued US and EU sanctions with Iranian oil mostly going to China. No major loss of supply to the global market in total. Limited impact on oil prices. Current risk premium fades. Economically the Iranian regime continues to limp forward at a deteriorating path.

2) The regime applies absolute force as in 1), but the US intervenes kinetically. Escalation ensues in the Middle East to the point that oil exports out of the Strait of Hormuz are curbed. The price of oil shots above $150/b.

3) Riots spreads to affect Iranian oil production/exports. The current regime does not apply sufficient absolute force. Riots spreads further to affect oil production and export facilities with the result that the oil market loses some 1.5 mb/d to 2.0 mb/d of exports from Iran. Thereafter a messy aftermath regime wise.

Looking at the oil market today the Brent crude oil price is falling back 0.6% to $63/b. As such the oil market is assigning very low risk for scenario 2) and probably a very high probability for scenario 1).

Venezuela: Heavy sour crude and product prices falls sharply on prospect of reduced US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports. The oil market take on Venezuela has quickly shifted from fear of losing what was left of its production and exports to instead expecting more heavy oil from Venezuela to be released into the market. Not at least easier access to Venezuelan heavy crude for USGC refineries. The US has started to partially lift sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil exports with the aim of releasing 30mn-50mn bl of Venezuelan crude from onshore and offshore stocks according to the US energy secretary Chris Wright. But a significant increase in oil production and exports is far away. It is estimated that it will take $10bn in capex spending every year for 10 years to drive its production up by 1.5 mb/d to a total of 2.5 mb/d. That is not moving the needle a lot for the US which has a total hydrocarbon liquids production today of 23.6 mb/d (2025 average). At the same time US oil majors are not all that eager to invest in Venezuela as they still hold tens of billions of dollars in claims against the nation from when it confiscated their assets in 2007. Prices for heavy crude in the USGC have however fallen sharply over the prospect of getting easier access to more heavy crude from Venezuela. The relative price of heavy sour crude products in Western Europe versus Brent crude have also fallen sharply into the new year.

Iran officially exported 1.75 mb/d of crude on average in 2025 falling sharply to 1.4 mb/d in December. But it also produces condensates. Probably in the magnitude of 0.5-0.6 mb/d. Total production of crude and condensates probably close to 3.9 mb/d.

The price of heavy, sour fuel oil has fallen sharply versus Brent crude the latest days in response to the prospect of more heavy sour crude from Venezuela.