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Handelsbanken Jordbruk, 21 februari 2014

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Handelsbanken - Råvarubrevet - Nyhetsbrev om råvaror

USDA spår fortsatt prisfall trots minskad areal

Kvartalsrapport för råvaror från HandelsbankenIgår och idag anordnar det amerikanska jordbruksdepartementet, USDA, den årliga konferensen Agricultural Outlook Forum i Arlington, Virginia, USA. Här presenteras den första officiella prognosen för skörd år 2014. Tyvärr ingen munter läsning för de som hoppas på högre spannmålspriser, för alla de tre stora grödorna väntar sig USDA prisfall ned till nivåer vi inte sett på fem år. Här nedan några korta kommentarer om vad som sades under gårdagen:

Total veteareal i USA säsongen 2014/15 väntas uppgå till 55,5 miljoner acres – ned 1,2 procent jämfört med säsongen 2013/14. Inhemska priser på vete i USA beräknas under säsongen, som startar 1:a juni, nå ett genomsnitt om $ 5,30 per bushel. Igår stängde decemberterminen i Chicago på $ 6,3875 per bushel.

Den amerikanska majsarealen för säsongen 2014/15 beräknas uppgå till 92 miljoner acres – ned 3,6 procent jämfört med säsongen 2013/14. Även om det är en ganska stor nedgång jämfört med arealen som såddes under våren 2013 så är det historiskt sett en stor areal – den fjärde största sedan andra världskriget och med alla möjligheter att nå en rekordskörd. Inhemska priser på majs i USA beräknas under säsongen nå ett genomsnitt om $ 3,90 per bushel. Decemberterminen stängde igår på $ 4,6875 per bushel i Chicago.

För sojan uppskattar USDA att de amerikanska bönderna kommer så en areal om 79,5 miljoner acres under våren 2014 – upp 3,9 procent jämfört med år 2013, delvis på bekostnad av den minskande majsarealen. Som vi skrivit flera gånger förut en väntad följd av att sojan med rådande prisrelation majs/soja ger en bättre kalkyl än majsen. Genomsnittliga prisnivån för sojabönor under säsongen 2014/15 uppskattar USDA till $ 9,65 per bushel. Novemberterminen stängde igår i Chicago på $ 11,4650 per bushel.

Som sagt, ingen munter läsning för spannmålsproducenter. Glöm dock inte att ovanstående är en prognos främst över grödor som ännu inte ens såtts (förutom höstvetet) och väldigt mycket kan hända dels innan/under sådd men framförallt innan skörd. Förutsatt någorlunda normala väderförhållanden finns dock inga större skäl att ifrågasätta ovanstående.

Om vi snabbt vidgar vår vy och ser på kommande spannmålsproduktion ur ett globalt perspektiv så finns det idag få problem rent odlingsmässigt – de flesta grödorna på norra halvklotet är i ett generellt sett gott skick. Frågetecken finns dock, bland annat över hur stor den ryska veteproduktionen kan bli? Med en höstsådd areal omkring 10 procent lägre än föregående säsong, en till stor del sen sådd och med marginell möjlighet att kompensera med ökad vårsådd känns det givet att anta en minskad produktion – frågan är hur mycket lägre, 10%? 15%? Ett annat frågetecken är utvintring av höstvetet i USA – nästa vecka ser ut att bjuda på kallare väder med ökad risk. Inte att förglömma är också problemen i Ukraina. Landet är klart viktigt på exportmarknaden och fortsatta konflikter kommer tveklöst leda till stora problem i landets infrastruktur och således även för spannmålsexporten.

Sammanfattningsvis ser den långsiktiga trenden fortsatt negativ ut för prisnivån, som vanligt dock med vissa frågetecken. Vi vill här också återigen poängtera vikten av att hantera era risker. Vi har haft år där skillnaden mellan att agera (prissäkra) eller inte agera för många har resulterat i skillnaden mellan en stor vinst och en tillfredsställande vinst – vi lär också få år då skillnaden mellan att agera och att inte agera kommer innebära skillnaden mellan vinst och en i efterhand onödig förlust.

[box]Handelsbanken Jordbruk är producerat av Handelsbanken och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]

Ansvarsbegränsning

Detta material är producerat av Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) i fortsättningen kallad Handelsbanken. De som arbetar med innehållet är inte analytiker och materialet är inte oberoende investeringsanalys. Innehållet är uteslutande avsett för kunder i Sverige. Syftet är att ge en allmän information till Handelsbankens kunder och utgör inte ett personligt investeringsråd eller en personlig rekommendation. Informationen ska inte ensamt utgöra underlag för investeringsbeslut. Kunder bör inhämta råd från sina rådgivare och basera sina investeringsbeslut utifrån egen erfarenhet.

Informationen i materialet kan ändras och också avvika från de åsikter som uttrycks i oberoende investeringsanalyser från Handelsbanken. Informationen grundar sig på allmänt tillgänglig information och är hämtad från källor som bedöms som tillförlitliga, men riktigheten kan inte garanteras och informationen kan vara ofullständig eller nedkortad. Ingen del av förslaget får reproduceras eller distribueras till någon annan person utan att Handelsbanken dessförinnan lämnat sitt skriftliga medgivande. Handelsbanken ansvarar inte för att materialet används på ett sätt som strider mot förbudet mot vidarebefordran eller offentliggörs i strid med bankens regler.

Analys

Crude oil comment: Tariffs spark small reactions, but price gains hold steady

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crude prices bottomed out at USD 74.10 per barrel on Thursday evening (February 6th) after a continuous decline since mid-January. Since then, prices have climbed uninterruptedly by USD 2.5 per barrel, reaching the current level of USD 76.50 per barrel.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Since the beginning of 2025, price movements have been more volatile compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Additionally, the market has broken the firm range-bound levels of USD 70–75 per barrel that prevailed from mid-October 2024 to January 2025.

Brent crude rose by nearly USD 1.50 per barrel yesterday (February 10th), driven by a tighter supply outlook. This has been credited to stricter sanctions resulting in Russia producing below its quota. Meanwhile, the US President recently ordered a 25% tariff on all aluminum and steel imports, including from Canada and Mexico, the country’s top two foreign suppliers. The tariffs are set to take effect on March 12, according to the White House.

At present, Brent crude appears to be holding onto its price gains, with little reaction so far to the latest tariff news, as markets await key US CPI data scheduled for tomorrow (February 12th).

As we highlighted last week (link), there has recently been a significant build-up in US crude inventories, with Canadian crude flows increasing rapidly to meet the tariff deadline, which was originally set for March. However, US industry-based inventory data (API) is due to be released later today, and we expect a slowdown, as Canada negotiated a 30-day delay in the imposition of US tariffs. A 10% import tariff on Canadian oil had been proposed.

On top of that, there is an increasing risk to the Gaza ceasefire deal, as both parties have accused each other of violating the terms of the agreement. The US President has stated that Israel should call off its ceasefire agreement with Hamas if hostages are not returned by this weekend, further contributing to heightened geopolitical tensions, as well as the US’ tougher stance on Iran.

Stay tuned. This week, monthly oil market reports from the EIA (this evening), IEA (Thursday, February 13th), and OPEC (tomorrow, February 12th) will be released.

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Analys

Bullish tailwind for oil as TTF nat gas tops USD 100/boe

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Dragged down by Trump tariff-chaos last week. Brent crude fell 2.7% last week to USD 74.66/b with a high of USD 77.34/b on Monday and a low of USD 74.1/b on Thursday. It managed to stage a small gain of 0.5% at the very end of the week. It closed below the 50dma, 100dma and 200dma in the three last days of the week.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Gaining 0.7% this morning as TTF nat gas tops USD 100/boe. Brent is trading up 0.7% to USD 75.2/b this morning, inching above the 100dma. New Trump-tariffs on steel and aluminum of 25% into the US is bearish macro-news. Still industrial metals are ticking a little higher with aluminum gaining 0.6%. The macro consequence of new Trump-tariffs is naturally bearish, but oil is still higher this morning taking little notice of that. What stands out in energy this morning is TTF nat gas prices jumping 5-6% with the front-month contract topping USD 100/boe. Even 10ppm diesel is now cheaper than nat gas. Consumers of nat gas all over the world will now opt for any kind of oil product rather than nat gas if their nat gas price is set by in LNG market. I.e. Europe and Asia will all lean towards consuming more oil and more coal if they in any way can do so.

New Trump-sanctions towards Iran will bite before possible solution. The pattern of Donald Trump is to impose maximum pressure of any kind until something breaks or the opponent cave in and then force through the deal he wants. On 4 Feb last week his administration signed new sanctions towards Iran described as maximum pressure. This will tighten the sour crude oil market further and thus help to tighten up the overall oil market as well. A symptom of this is that High Sulphur Fuel Oil in Europe is trading only 3.4 dollar per barrel below Brent crude versus a more normal discount of around 10.

Not much downside in oil with nat gas above USD 100/boe while sour crude market is tight. Bloomberg BI concluded last week that a ”fair price” for Brent crude currently is USD 75/b. Sanctions on Iran and Russia are making the heavy part of the barrel alone almost as expensive as Brent crude. The TTF nat gas price on the other side of the hydrocarbon spectrum is trading above USD 100/boe. Brent crude is thus getting support both from ”above” and ”below” at the moment. Consumers all over the world will flock to oil products now that they are all cheaper than nat gas priced off the LNG market.

The TTF 1mth contract spikes above USD 100/boe becoming more expensive than all oil products including 10ppm ICE Gasoil. Consumers will opt for oil and oil products rather than nat gas all over the world.

The TTF 1mth contract spikes above USD 100/boe
Source: SEB graph and calculations, Bloomberg data

Net long speculative positions in Brent + WTI fall by 54.2 mb over week to last Tuesday as erratic US politics clouds the outlook.

Net long speculative positions in Brent + WTI fall by 54.2 mb over week to last Tuesday as erratic US politics clouds the outlook.
Source: SEB graph and calculations, Bloomberg data
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Analys

Crude oil comment: Balancing act

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crude prices have experienced a decline this week, falling by approximately USD 1.80 per barrel from Monday’s opening, settling at USD 74.80 this morning. This marks one of the lowest price levels of 2025 to date, with an intraday dip reaching USD 74.15 per barrel on February 4th.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

As highlighted in our previous report, crude oil prices are currently caught in a delicate balance between rising concerns over global demand growth and the potential for supply disruptions. On one side, fears surrounding an escalating trade war, with its negative impact on global growth, are putting downward pressure on the market. The persistent uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade tensions – particularly between major economies – has raised expectations of a slowdown in business investment and consumer spending, which could dampen oil demand. Consequently, bearish sentiment is gaining traction.

On the other hand, the threat of supply disruptions, particularly from Iran, introduces an element of volatility that could quickly reverse market sentiment. This week, President Trump’s new actions aimed at intensifying pressure on Iran have raised expectations of a significant drop in the country’s oil exports. While such a move was anticipated, it still brings a fresh layer of uncertainty, further complicating the market’s outlook.

In essence, the market is now navigating between concerns about weakening global oil demand due to trade tensions and the possibility of sudden disruptions to Iranian oil supplies.

US Data (see attached data package):
U.S. oil production growth significantly slowed in the first eleven months of 2024, with crude and condensate output averaging 13.2 million barrels per day (b/d) – a modest increase from 12.9 million b/d in the same period in 2023 (+0.3 million b/d). However, this marks a sharp deceleration compared to previous years, where growth in 2023 and 2022 stood at 0.9 million b/d and 0.7 million b/d, respectively.

As global oil prices returned to pre-Ukraine war levels, U.S. producers shifted their focus from expanding output to managing costs. Inflation-adjusted front-month U.S. crude futures averaged USD 76 per barrel in 2024, down from USD 80 in 2023, reducing the incentive for further production increases. In line with this, the number of active oil rigs has also decreased, falling to 491 per week in 2024, down from 549 in 2023.

With OPEC+ partners, including Saudi Arabia, postponing planned production increases, U.S. commercial crude inventories dropped below the ten-year seasonal average by mid-2024. By January 2025, the inventory deficit had widened to 24 million barrels, or -5% below the average.

We anticipate that a further inventory depletion, which, coupled with expected sanctions on rival producers in Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, has driven a modest rise in futures prices so far in 2025.

The latest data from the EIA for the week ending January 31, 2025, presents a mixed picture. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.3 million b/d, a slight increase of 159 thousand b/d from the previous week.

Refinery runs also increased, with utilization partially recovering from the significant decline the prior week, rising back to 84.5% following the winter storm disruption. However, gasoline and distillate production both decreased, with gasoline output averaging 9.2 million b/d and distillates 4.6 million b/d. On the import side, crude oil imports rose by 467 thousand b/d to 6.9 million b/d, while gasoline and distillate imports remained modest.

Of greater significance, commercial crude oil inventories increased more than expected by 8.7 million barrels (API = 5 mb), bringing total crude stockpiles to 423.8 million barrels. Despite this, inventories remain 5% below the five-year average for this time of year. In contrast, distillate (diesel) inventories fell sharply by 5.5 million barrels (API = -7 mb), now standing 12% below the five-year average. Gasoline inventories saw a modest increase of 2.2 million barrels (API = 5.4 mb), slightly above the five-year average. Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels during the week.

Given this backdrop, we continue to see Brent crude prices balancing between concerns over weaker global oil demand due to trade tensions and the potential for sudden disruptions in Iranian oil supplies. Our forecast for Brent crude at USD 75 per barrel for 2025 remains intact, reflecting this ongoing volatility.

USD DOE Inventories
US Crude and products
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