Analys
Guldet hämtar sig efter skottdagens ras
När vi för en månad sedan, den 7 februari, analyserade guldet så var priset 1 722 USD/oz och situationen var att vi inte hade några säkra signaler på vart guldet skulle leta sig den närmaste tiden. Istället var det två nivåer att bevaka under februari; Dels stödet vid 1 650 USD/oz och dels motståndet vid 1 770 USD/oz. Först när någon av dessa nivåer bröts, skulle vi få nya signaler om framtiden.
Om vi ser tillbaka på utvecklingen kan vi konstatera att guldet fortsatte sidledes ett par veckor, men den 22 februari kom ett första tecken på att guldet ville stiga igen. Vi fick en stängning över 1 770 USD/oz och därmed förhoppningar om att en ny uppgång kunde starta och att nivån 1 804 USD/oz skulle testas.
Men styrkan infann sig aldrig riktigt. Vi fick visserligen en fortsatt dragning uppåt, men guldet steg bara med någon procent. Sedan kom skottdagen och sköt guldpriset i sank. På bara några timmar föll det från 1 792 USD/oz till 1688 USD/oz. En nedgång med 104 dollar eller om man så vill närmare 6 procent.
Samtidigt gick förstås uppgångssignalen om intet, när guldet återigen vände under 1 770 USD/oz. Även den stigande trend på dagsbasis som varit gällande under hela 2012, bröts. Det är i chocken efter detta ras som guldet just nu befinner sig.
De närmaste dagarna kan vi få se en liten rekyl upp med några procent, men risken för en ny nedgång därefter är stor. I nästa nedgång är det området runt 1 625 USD/oz som vi riktar lite extra uppmärksamhet mot. Kanske kan en ny uppgång starta från denna nivå.
Tar vi ytterligare ett steg tillbaka så kan vi på veckobasis (se diagrammet) se den stigande trend som varit gällande sedan hösten 2008. Under slutet av förra året bröts denna trend tillfälligtvis och gav då oss varningar om att uppgången skulle ta en paus.
Idag ser vi i samma diagram att vi har en sidledes rörelse, konsolidering, med 1 523 USD/oz som golv och 1 804 USD/oz som tak. Den långsiktiga utvecklingen bekräftas när någon av dessa nivåer passeras bestående. Fram till den dagen räknar vi med en fortsatt rörelse inom detta breda intervall.
Du kan handla GULD med följande minifutures:
Uppgång MINILONG GULD O med en hävstång kring 4,53
Nedgång: MINISHRT GULD P med en hävstång kring 3,99
Läs mer om minifutures på RBS hemsida
[box]Denna analys publiceras på Råvarumarknaden.se med tillstånd och i samarbete med Axier Equities.[/box]
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Analys
OPEC+ in a process of retaking market share

Oil prices are likely to fall for a fourth straight year as OPEC+ unwinds cuts and retakes market share. We expect Brent crude to average USD 55/b in Q4/25 before OPEC+ steps in to stabilise the market into 2026. Surplus, stock building, oil prices are under pressure with OPEC+ calling the shots as to how rough it wants to play it. We see natural gas prices following parity with oil (except for seasonality) until LNG surplus arrives in late 2026/early 2027.

Oil market: Q4/25 and 2026 will be all about how OPEC+ chooses to play it
OPEC+ is in a process of unwinding voluntary cuts by a sub-group of the members and taking back market share. But the process looks set to be different from 2014-16, as the group doesn’t look likely to blindly lift production to take back market share. The group has stated very explicitly that it can just as well cut production as increase it ahead. While the oil price is unlikely to drop as violently and lasting as in 2014-16, it will likely fall further before the group steps in with fresh cuts to stabilise the price. We expect Brent to fall to USD 55/b in Q4/25 before the group steps in with fresh cuts at the end of the year.

Natural gas market: Winter risk ahead, yet LNG balance to loosen from 2026
The global gas market entered 2025 in a fragile state of balance. European reliance on LNG remains high, with Russian pipeline flows limited to Turkey and Russian LNG constrained by sanctions. Planned NCS maintenance in late summer could trim exports by up to 1.3 TWh/day, pressuring EU storage ahead of winter. Meanwhile, NE Asia accounts for more than 50% of global LNG demand, with China alone nearing a 20% share (~80 mt in 2024). US shale gas production has likely peaked after reaching 104.8 bcf/d, even as LNG export capacity expands rapidly, tightening the US balance. Global supply additions are limited until late 2026, when major US, Qatari and Canadian projects are due to start up. Until then, we expect TTF to average EUR 38/MWh through 2025, before easing as the new supply wave likely arrives in late 2026 and then in 2027.
Analys
Manufacturing PMIs ticking higher lends support to both copper and oil

Price action contained withing USD 2/b last week. Likely muted today as well with US closed. The Brent November contract is the new front-month contract as of today. It traded in a range of USD 66.37-68.49/b and closed the week up a mere 0.4% at USD 67.48/b. US oil inventory data didn’t make much of an impact on the Brent price last week as it is totally normal for US crude stocks to decline 2.4 mb/d this time of year as data showed. This morning Brent is up a meager 0.5% to USD 67.8/b. It is US Labor day today with US markets closed. Today’s price action is likely going to be muted due to that.

Improving manufacturing readings. China’s manufacturing PMI for August came in at 49.4 versus 49.3 for July. A marginal improvement. The total PMI index ticked up to 50.5 from 50.2 with non-manufacturing also helping it higher. The HCOB Eurozone manufacturing PMI was a disastrous 45.1 last December, but has since then been on a one-way street upwards to its current 50.5 for August. The S&P US manufacturing index jumped to 53.3 in August which was the highest since 2022 (US ISM manufacturing tomorrow). India manufacturing PMI rose further and to 59.3 for August which is the highest since at least 2022.
Are we in for global manufacturing expansion? Would help to explain copper at 10k and resilient oil. JPMorgan global manufacturing index for August is due tomorrow. It was 49.7 in July and has been below the 50-line since February. Looking at the above it looks like a good chance for moving into positive territory for global manufacturing. A copper price of USD 9935/ton, sniffing at the 10k line could be a reflection of that. An oil price holding up fairly well at close to USD 68/b despite the fact that oil balances for Q4-25 and 2026 looks bloated could be another reflection that global manufacturing may be accelerating.
US manufacturing PMI by S&P rose to 53.3 in August. It was published on 21 August, so not at all newly released. But the US ISM manufacturing PMI is due tomorrow and has the potential to follow suite with a strong manufacturing reading.

Analys
Crude stocks fall again – diesel tightness persists

U.S. commercial crude inventories posted another draw last week, falling by 2.4 million barrels to 418.3 million barrels, according to the latest DOE report. Inventories are now 6% below the five-year seasonal average, underlining a persistently tight supply picture as we move into the post-peak demand season.

While the draw was smaller than last week’s 6 million barrel decline, the trend remains consistent with seasonal patterns. Current inventories are still well below the 2015–2022 average of around 449 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories dropped by 1.2 million barrels and are now close to the five-year average. The breakdown showed a modest increase in finished gasoline offset by a decline in blending components – hinting at steady end-user demand.
Diesel inventories saw yet another sharp move, falling by 1.8 million barrels. Stocks are now 15% below the five-year average, pointing to sustained tightness in middle distillates. In fact, diesel remains the most undersupplied segment, with current inventory levels at the very low end of the historical range (see page 3 attached).
Total commercial petroleum inventories – including crude and products but excluding the SPR – fell by 4.4 million barrels on the week, bringing total inventories to approximately 1,259 million barrels. Despite rising refinery utilization at 94.6%, the broader inventory complex remains structurally tight.
On the demand side, the DOE’s ‘products supplied’ metric – a proxy for implied consumption – stayed strong. Total product demand averaged 21.2 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up 2.5% YoY. Diesel and jet fuel were the standouts, up 7.7% and 1.7%, respectively, while gasoline demand softened slightly, down 1.1% YoY. The figures reflect a still-solid late-summer demand environment, particularly in industrial and freight-related sectors.


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