Analys

The thematic case for nickel

Publicerat

5 år sedan

den

25 mars, 2020

Redaktionen

Nickel has exciting long-term prospects as its use in electric vehicle batteries is expected to drive its demand growth in the future. This structural trend has however not immunised it against the recent headwinds facing industrial metals. Industrial metals are cyclical commodities and their performance is fuelled by global economic growth. The sector has therefore been under pressure from trade wars and, more recently, coronavirus. In this blog, we want to shift the focus back to nickel’s strategic case. We remain cognizant that the current storm is not over yet but expect a smoother sail once the existing headwinds subside.

Analysing nickel’s recent history

Nickel has strongly outperformed the industrial metals basket (composed of copper, zinc, aluminium and nickel) in the last 3 years (Figure 1). The sector has faced challenges since the advent of trade wars in 2018 both directly due to tariffs and indirectly via a resulting slowdown in global economic activity. Nickel too has had its share of price volatility during this time. The metal rallied sharply in July 2019 on the expectation that Indonesia, which produces a quarter of global nickel supply, will bring forward its nickel ore export ban by 2 years to January 2020. Indonesia announced this decision soon thereafter. Concerns of supply shortages drove the price in a market which was already in a deficit^[1]. Nickel’s fortunes reversed in the last quarter of 2019 as stainless-steel demand, which currently accounts for nearly two-thirds of the metal’s use, dwindled. The dynamics of the nickel market are however changing which is why we have an optimistic view of the future.

Nickel has outperformed — Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. Monthly data from 01/01/2017 to 03/01/2020. Industrial metals basket refers to the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex.

Battery solutions to take a larger share of nickel

According to metal experts Wood Makenzie, battery solutions are expected to account for more than 30% of the total demand for nickel by 2040, up from around 4% today (Figure 2). This is because electric vehicles are forecasted to be around 50% of all passenger car sales by 2040, up from around 8% today. Batteries need to become more efficient to enable this growth and nickel is expected to play a pivotal role. According to the Nickel Institute, nickel containing Lithium-ion batteries are powering the electric vehicle revolution as nickel in batteries helps deliver higher energy density and greater storage capacity at a lower cost. This will allow electric cars to have both a longer range, i.e. the ability to drive longer distances without requiring a recharge, and lower cost promoting wider adoption.

Now, the impact on price from demand growth can, in theory, be offset by an equal increase in supply. We, however, believe that supply growth will be much slower as, according to Wood Mackenzie, the average time for a new nickel mining project to start producing the metal is around 9 years. Miners will seek higher prices to be incentivised to undertake such projects.

Electric vehicle market — Source: WisdomTree, Wood Mackenzie. Forecasts (F) from 2019. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties.

It is uncertain how quickly the current headwinds facing industrial metals will dissipate. Having said that, the market dynamics of nickel are changing and the long-term outlook appears promising for the metal supported by a thematic shift towards electric vehicles which is being powered by nickel containing batteries. With the nickel market already in a supply deficit, we expect growing demand to support its price in the long-term.

Mobeen Tahir, Associate Director, Research, WisdomTree

^[1^] According to the International Nickel Study Group, nickel’s supply deficit was 6.2% in 2018, 3.2% in 2019 and forecasted to be 1.8% in 2020 relative to its demand based on data available as of 31 October 2019.

DISCLAIMER

This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Relaterade ämnen:mobeen tahir nickel wisdomtree

Nästa

An age of unprecedented oil volatility

Missa inte

Defensive Assets: Gold, a precious ally in the fight against equity drawdown

Fortsätt läsa

Annons

Analys

A deliberate measure to push oil price lower but it is not the opening of the floodgates

Publicerat

3 timmar sedan

den

4 mars, 2025

Redaktionen

Hurt by US tariffs and more oil from OPEC+. Brent crude fell 2.1% yesterday to USD 71.62/b and is down an additional 0.9% this morning to USD 71/b. New tariff-announcements by Donald Trump and a decision by OPEC+ to lift production by 138 kb/d in April is driving the oil price lower.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

The decision by OPEC+ to lift production is a deliberate decision to get a lower oil price. All the members in OPEC+ wants to produce more as a general rule. Their plan and hope for a long time has been that they could gradually revive production back to a more normal level without pushing the oil price lower. As such they have postponed the planned production increases time and time again. Opting for price over volume. Waiting for the opportunity to lift production without pushing the price lower. And now it has suddenly changed. They start to lift production by 138 kb/d in April even if they know that the oil market this year then will run a surplus. Donald Trump is the reason.

Putin, Muhammed bin Salman (MBS) and Trump all met in Riyadh recently to discuss the war in Ukraine. They naturally discussed politics and energy and what is most important for each and one of them. Putin wants a favorable deal in Ukraine, MBS may want harsher measures towards Iran while Trump amongst other things want a lower oil price. The latter is to appease US consumers to which he has promised a lower oil price. A lower oil price over the coming two years could be good for Trump and the Republicans in the mid-term elections if a lower oil price makes US consumers happy. And a powerful Trump for a full four years is also good for Putin and MBS.

This is not the opening of the floodgates. It is not the start of blindly lifting production each month. It is still highly measured and controlled. It is about lowering the oil price to a level that is acceptable for Putin, MBS, Trump, US oil companies and the US consumers. Such an imagined ”target price” or common denominator is clearly not USD 50-55/b. US production would in that case fall markedly and the finances of Saudi Arabia and Russia would hurt too badly. The price is probably somewhere in the USD 60ies/b.

Brent crude averaged USD 99.5/b, USD 82/b and USD 80/b in 2022, 2023 and 2024 respectively. An oil price of USD 65/b is markedly lower in the sense that it probably would be positively felt by US consumers. The five-year Brent crude oil contract is USD 67/b. In a laxed oil market with little strain and a gradual rise in oil inventories we would see a lowering of the front-end of the Brent crude curve so that the front-end comes down to the level of the longer dated prices. The longer-dated prices usually soften a little bit as well when this happens. The five-year Brent contract could easily slide a couple of dollars down to USD 65/b versus USD 67/b.

Brent crude 1 month contract in USD/b. USD 68.68/b is the level to watch out for. It was the lowpoint in September last year. Breaking below that will bring us to lowest level since December 2021.

Fortsätt läsa

Analys

Brent whacked down yet again by negative Trump-fallout

Publicerat

6 dagar sedan

den

26 februari, 2025

Redaktionen

Sharply lower yesterday with negative US consumer confidence. Brent crude fell like a rock to USD 73.02/b (-2.4%) yesterday following the publishing of US consumer confidence which fell to 98.3 in February from 105.3 in January (100 is neutral). Intraday Brent fell as low as USD 72.7/b. The closing yesterday was the lowest since late December and at a level where Brent frequently crossed over from September to the end of last year. Brent has now lost both the late December, early January Trump-optimism gains as well as the Biden-spike in mid-Jan and is back in the range from this Autumn. This morning it is staging a small rebound to USD 73.2/b but with little conviction it seems. The US sentiment readings since Friday last week is damaging evidence of the negative fallout Trump is creating.

Evidence growing that Trump-turmoil are having negative effects on the US economy. The US consumer confidence index has been in a seesaw pattern since mid-2022 and the reading yesterday was reached twice in 2024 and close to it also in 2023. But the reading yesterday needs to be seen in the context of Donald Trump being inaugurated as president again on 20 January. The reading must thus be interpreted as direct response by US consumers to what Trump has been doing since he became president and all the uncertainty it has created. The negative reading yesterday also falls into line with the negative readings on Friday, amplifying the message that Trump action will indeed have a negative fallout. At least the first-round effects of it. The market is staging a small rebound this morning to USD 73.3/b. But the genie is out of the bottle: Trump actions is having a negative effect on US consumers and businesses and thus the US economy. Likely effects will be reduced spending by consumers and reduced capex spending by businesses.

Brent crude falling lowest since late December and a level it frequently crossed during autumn.

White: US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (published yesterday). Blue: US Services PMI Business activity (published last Friday). Red: US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (published last Friday). All three falling sharply in February. Indexed 100 on Feb-2022.

Fortsätt läsa

Analys

Crude oil comment: Price reaction driven by intensified sanctions on Iran

Publicerat

1 vecka sedan

den

25 februari, 2025

Redaktionen

Brent crude prices bottomed out at USD 74.20 per barrel at the close of trading on Friday, following a steep decline from USD 77.15 per barrel on Thursday evening (February 20th). During yesterday’s trading session, prices steadily climbed by roughly USD 1 per barrel (1.20%), reaching the current level of USD 75 per barrel.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Yesterday’s price rebound, which has continued into today, is primarily driven by recent U.S. actions aimed at intensifying pressure on Iran. These moves were formalized in the second round of sanctions since the presidential shift, specifically targeting Iranian oil exports. Notably, the U.S. Treasury Department has sanctioned several Iran-related oil companies, added 13 new tankers to the OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) sanctions list, and sanctioned individuals, oil brokers, and terminals connected to Iran’s oil trade.

The National Security Presidential Memorandum 2 now calls for the U.S. to ”drive Iran’s oil exports to zero,” further asserting that Iran ”can never be allowed to acquire or develop nuclear weapons.” This intensified focus on Iran’s oil exports is naturally fueling market expectations of tighter supply. Yet, OPEC+ spare capacity remains robust, standing at 5.3 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia holding 3.1 million, the UAE 1.1 million, Iraq 600k, and Kuwait 400k. As such, any significant price spirals are not expected, given the current OPEC+ supply buffer.

Further contributing to recent price movements, OPEC has yet to decide on its stance regarding production cuts for Q2 2025. The group remains in control of the market, evaluating global supply and demand dynamics on a monthly basis. Given the current state of the market, we believe there is limited capacity for additional OPEC production without risking further price declines.

On a more bullish note, Iraq reaffirmed its commitment to the OPEC+ agreement yesterday, signaling that it would present an updated plan to compensate for any overproduction, which supports ongoing market stability.

Fortsätt läsa