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Analys

SEB Jordbruksprodukter, 28 januari 2013

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SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - CommodityTorkan i USA fortsätter att skapa oro för USA:s skörd i år. Samtidigt fortsätter vädret i Brasilien, världens nya kornbod, att vara gynnsamt. Vi gör inga ändringar av rekommendationer den här veckan. Majs ska man hålla ett öga på. Om priset bryter nedåt i veckan som kommer kan en sådan prisnedgång få en förlängning. Den kan i så fall smitta av sig på vetemarknaden och sojamarknaden.

Odlingsväder

Torkan i USA håller i sig, som vi ser i den senaste ”Drought Monitor”, som publicerades i torsdags. Sedan förra veckan har torkan förbättrats marginellt.

Karta över odlningsväder i USA

Andelen av USA:s yta som är drabbad av torka minskade marginellt i veckan fram till den rapport som kom förra veckan. Den övre röda linjen visar hur många procent av USA:s areal som är drabbad av någon form av torka. Den nedre blå linjen visar hur många procent som är drabbat av de två värsta varianterna av torka ”extreme” och ”exceptional”.

Torkra - US drought monitor

Nedan ser vi prognosen fram till den sista april / första maj, alltså till dess sådden av majs och sojabönor börjar. Alla färgade (ej vita) områden innebär att torkan håller i sig. Det lär alltså vara tämligen torrt när såningsmaskinerna dammar ut på fälten.

Prognos april/maj

Över hela Europa har det kommit nederbörd den senaste tiden, vilket gynnar vintervetet. I västra Ryssland / Ukraina likaså, utom i de allra mest södra delarna. Även Turkiet och nordvästra Afrika har fått ordentlig nederbörd. I nordvästra Afrika avslutade detta en torr period på en månad. Det har också regnat i Sydostasien, vilket gynnar odlingen av ris. I Argentina har det kommit lättare nederbörd i de södra delarna.Prognos råvarupriser i jordbruket

De torra delarna av världen är norra Argentina, som är ett viktigt odlingsområde. Australien är rekordtorrt och så USA, som vi sett ovan är nästan rekordtorrt, nästan som 1939, det sista året av ”Dust Bowl” på 1930-talet.

Vete

Priset på november (2013) kontraktet nådde upp till den tekniska motståndslinjen på 229 euro per ton, där det fanns tillräckligt med säljare för att trycka ner priset till 220. Veckan stängde på 222 euro.

Vetepris - Diagram den 25 januari 2013

Nedan ser vi decemberkontraktet på CBOT. Uppgången i januari framträder nu allt mer som vi beskrev den i förra veckobrevet. Som en rekyl mot en fallande trend. Marknaden fann dock stöd i torsdags och fredags på 800 cent (en jämn siffra; jämna siffror är naturliga platser att vänta sig stöd och motstånd). Om måndagens handel öppnar uppåt, får vi ta det som tecken på ytterligare en rekyl uppåt, mot trenden. Omvänt, om marknaden öppnar veckans handel med att sjunka under 800 cent, eller gör det senare i veckan, ska vi tolka det som att marknaden kan vara beredd på att fortsätta den nedåtgående trenden.

CBOT - Vetepris, decemberkontraktet

Det gick rykten i veckan om att Ryssland skulle ta bort importskatten på 5% på vetet. Det har kommit rapporter om brist på vete från Ryssland. I fredags gick dock Rysslands vice premiärminister ut och dementerade att landet skulle ta bort importskatten. Förmodligen är det tullsamarbetet med spannmålsrika Kazakstan som hindrar detta. Till bilden av spannmålsbrist i Ryssland kan fogas nyheten om att den ryska Spannmålsorganisationen skrev av 8% av vintervetet då detta inte grott. De sade också i veckan att 7% sannolikt skadas pga bristen på skyddande snötäcke i kölden. Det ser ut som om Ryssland skulle behöva importera ett par ton.

EU:s vete tar slut den 24 juli med USDA:s prognos för utgående lager. EU:s export har däremot varit ännu högre än USDA räknat med. Därför måste EU:s höga exporttakt resten av säsongen ligga 13% lägre än hittills för att hålla USDA:s prognos, som knappast kan bli lägre, eftersom lagret i praktiken nästan innebär att det är tomt på sina håll.

Fundamentalt ser det alltså ganska oroligt ut. Den globala vetesituationen kan utvecklas både åt det bättre hållet, eller åt det sämre. Just nu ser det ut tämligen oroväckande ut och vi kan trots det höga priset inte rekommendera sälj. Vi fortsätter med neutral rekommendation.

Maltkorn

November 2013-kontraktet föll under veckans oroliga handel från 253 till 248.25 euro per ton. Maltkornet gick därmed ner – samtidigt som vetet steg.

Maltkorn, diagram den 25 januari 2013

Potatis

Potatispriset för leverans i april nästa år (2014) föll marginellt från 15.90 förra veckan till 15.80 i fredags vid stängning.

Majs

Majspriset (december 2013) fortsatte sin rekyl uppåt, men slutade veckan med prisnedgångar. Priset ligger nu precis på rekylens tekniska stöd. Om marknaden börjar veckan med att falla, bryts stödet och vi får anse rekylen överstökad. Då finns potential att testa den föregående bottennoteringen från januari på 570 cent. Nästa stöd finns i så fall på 550 cent.

Majspris (C Z3) 25 januari 2013

Sådden i Argentina är ännu inte klar, därför att det har varit för torrt. Normalt sett börjar majsen blomma i januari. Den engelska termen är ”silking”, som beskriver mer hur majsen ser ut när den blommar. Effekten tolkas motstridigt av BAGE och regeringen i Argentina, där regeringen är mer avslappnad och frikostig med exportlicenser. Jag tror man ska tolka detta med vetskapen om den allmänna kortsiktighet som präglar landets styrning.

I övrigt väntas rekordstor areal (mitt i torkan i USA, vilket ger enorm osäkerhet). Hur det här kommer att utveckla sig får vi tolka en dag i taget. Den tekniska analysen blir viktig i detta. Just nu ligger som ovan nämnt, priset precis på en stödlinje. Bryts den nedåt i veckan, får vi tolka detta som en kortisktig säljsignal. I annat fall får vi hålla oss neutrala.

Sojabönor

Sojabönorna (november 2013) var i veckan uppe på ett pris över motståndslinjen från toppen i september.

Prisdiagram för sojabönor

USA:s export ligger över förra årets. Argentinas export ligger dock efter. En tolkning är att bönderna behåller lager som en inflationshedge. Även här får vi ta marknadens utveckling en dag i taget. Den tekniska analysen säger just nu ingenting. Så vi får vänta i neutralt läge.

Raps

Rapspriset (november 2013) fortsatte upp i början av veckan, men vände sedan ner. Tekniskt ser diagrammet ut som rörelsen sedan december är en rekyl i en fallande marknad. Vi fortsätter därför med säljrekommendationen.

Pris på november 2013-terminen på raps

Gris

Grispriset (Maj 13), amerikansk Lean Hogs, har rekylerat uppåt efter brottet nedåt av stödlinjen vid årsskiftet. Rekylen uppåt följer ett klassiskt mönster. Den är ett säljtillfälle.

Grispris - Maj 2013-terminen

Mjölk

I diagrammet nedan ser vi tre kurvor.Den gröna linjen är priset på skummjölkspulver i euro per ton på Eurex-börsen. Den blå är priset på smör på Eurex börsen. Priserna på Eurex anges i euro per ton.

Slutligen så den gröna linjen. Den visar priset på helmjölkspulver (WMP) FOB Västeuropa. Källan är USDA och priserna uppdateras varannan vecka. Vi ser att WMP-priset legat stabilt det fjärde kvartalet förra året, med en liten nedgång mot slutet av året. 2013 har dock börjat med en liten prisuppgång.

Diagram över helmjölkspulver etc

Det börsbaserade priset i svenska kronor beräknas med formeln:

Mjölk - Formel för det börsbaserade priset i svenska kronor

där

BUT = priset på smör i euro per ton
SMP = priset på skummjölkspulver i euro per ton
FX = växelkursen för EURSEK.

EURSEK

EURSEK rörde sig ”sidledes” i veckan som gick. De som läste vårt förra veckobrev minns att vi skrev att det var det mest troliga. Nu står marknaden och väger, precis på det övre motståndet. Vanligtvis brukar marknaden falla tillbaka i lägen som det här. Men, om veckan börjar med stigande kurser, kan det bli en förlängning på uppgången, i så fall till 8 kronor jämnt i första hand.

Valutadiagram EUR SEK den 25 januari 2013

USDSEK

Dollarn har fortsatt att utveckla sig svagt mot kronan. I fredags föll kursen ner mot den senaste månadens stödnivå, som dock höll. I alla fall i fredags. Men det ser ut som om trenden nedåt är stark och gissningsvis vinner den. Vi tror att dollarförsvagningen fortsätter, drivet av att ”Fiscal Cliff” återigen rycker allt närmare.

Valutadiagram USD SEK den 25 januari 2013

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Disclaimer

The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”).

Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.

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Analys

The cuts are for real and are already bullishly impacting the market

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Thumbs down was first reaction by financial market. The market gave the decision from the latest OPEC+ meeting an unexpectedly bearish reception. Yes, it was an unusual type of decision as well as the form of the communication. It was individual, ’voluntary’ cuts rather than a wide OPEC+ based decision with cuts divided pro-rate across the group. The communication of these cuts were not done by the OPEC secretariat as is usual but rather by the individual energy ministers who committed to cuts. All this gave the decision an airy feel with the sense that ’voluntary’ meant kind of ’maybe’ instead of real commitments. Further that the group is no longer tied properly together with no solid unanimous decision. It all summed up to ’thumbs down’ by the financial market and the price fell.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

The cuts are real and ’voluntary’ doesn’t mean ’maybe’. These ’voluntary’ committed cuts are no less firm commitments and no less real than the current voluntary cut by Saudi Arabia which continues to hold its production at 9.0 m b/d vs a normal 10 m b/d. These are real cuts: Russia -200 k b/d, Iraq: 223 k b/d, UAE 163 k b/d, Kuwait 135 k b/d, Kazakhstan 82 k b/d, Algeria 51 k b/d and Oman 42 k b/d. Total 896 k b/d. Compliance is of course always an issue. But broadly we expect these cuts to be delivered.

US oil inventories may continue to show marginal, bearish tendencies in December. These cuts will kick in from January 2024 and as such they will not impact oil inventories before then. So weekly US oil inventory data can continue to deliver marginally bearish data points through December along a trend for a while now where we have seen that total commercial crude and product stocks inches closer and closer towards the 2015-19 seasonal average.

The new cuts by OPEC+ is already physically impacting the market with tighter availability of crude cargoes for January programs. But that doesn’t mean that the new committed cuts by OPEC+ from January 2024 isn’t already impacting the physical oil market and oil prices. They are. Sales of physical oil cargoes by OPEC+ for January crude shipment programs are already in full swing. Refineries around the world are already now in the process of purchasing physical crude cargoes for Q1-24. Offerings of crude cargoes for Q1-24 by OPEC+ were immediately reduced the moment OPEC+ decided to reduce supply by 900 k b/d from January onward. Forward physical crude buyers are thus already experiencing a tighter supply in their forward purchases. And as such oil prices are already impacted.

Cuts are a backstop against deteriorating crude prices sub-USD 80/b and not a recipe for USD 100/b. The fresh 900 k b/d cut is not a recipe to drive the oil price to USD 100/b. In our eyes it is more of an effort to prevent the oil price from deteriorating further below USD 80/b. It is a backstop. And as such we think it is probably a sufficient backstop.

The bottoming of the global manufacturing cycle will be the ’big, fat cigar’ for OPEC+. It is pointless for OPEC+ to try to drive the oil price to USD 100/b without a solid tailwind from an accelerating global economy. Their best option is to try to stabilize the oil price around USD 80/b and then savor the joyride once the global economic cycle bottoms out and starts to accelerate. Long positions in oil will then rise rapidly and physical demand (oil demand growth) will accelerate. Both underpinning oil prices. OPEC+ can then lean back and smoke a big, fat cigar! The big, big question is of course when that will happen? Will we first have an ugly, economic setback in 2024/25 due to the strong rise in interest rates over the past 1-2 years? Or will inflation evaporate completely over the coming quarters because it is a complete creation of the exceptional Covid-19 events which are now reversing back towards normal? Financial markets are struggling to decide which one of these it will be. Ugly trough before global acceleration of global acceleration right away if inflation evaporates completely?

A macro economist I worked with during the global financial crises argued strongly then that the first sign of bottoming and acceleration would be found by looking at the manufacturing PMI of South Korea since they produce a swath of industrial sub-components which the global industrial engine needs. Much has changed since 2008/09 and true or false I don’t know as I’m not a macro economist. But here it is:

Manufacturing PMIs. South Korea has bottomed and lifted to the 50-line

Manufacturing PMIs. South Korea has bottomed and lifted to the 50-line
Source: SEB graph, Data from Blbrg
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Analys

SEB Metals price forecast update

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Softer economic growth in 2024 calls for somewhat softer metals prices in 2024. Industrial metals prices as well as other commodity prices exploded during Covid-19 as governments around the world unleashed stimuli in the magnitude of 10x of what was done during the global financial crisis in 2008/09. Consumers shifting spending from services to consumer goods added to the boom. Bloomberg’s industrial metals price index was up 91% in March 2022 versus January 2020 because of this. Global manufacturing PMI peaked in May 2021 and has been fading since and below the 50-line from September 2022 with latest reading at 48.8. Industrial metals prices have faded since their peak in March 2022 but are still 30% higher than they were in January 2020. Even zinc, the worst performing metal, is still 9% above where it was in January 2020. As such one could possibly argue that industrial metals have not yet fully faded from their Covid-19 stimulus boom. One possible explanation could be inflation where US inflation is up 19% over the period. But this still leaves industrial metals up 11% in real terms. Another possible explanation is the big jump in energy prices over the period. While coal and gas prices have fallen back a lot, they are still quite high. The coal price in western Europe is 110% above where it was at the start 2020 and 50% above its 2010-2019 average. Most industrial metals are highly energy intensive to produce with digging and crushing of rocks, smelting, and refining of ore. The current aluminium price of USD 2215/ton is for example well aligned with coal prices. In addition to this there has also been significant closures of zinc and aluminium smelting capacity in Europe which probably have supported prices for these metals.

Global economic growth is forecasted to slow from 3.5% in 2022, to 3.0% in 2023 and then again to 2.9% in 2024 as the big jump in interest rates induce economic pain with a lag. Aligned with this we expect lower industrial metals prices in 2024 than in 2023 though only marginally lower for most of the metals. But the field of metals is wide, and the price action is thus adverse. Copper is likely the metal with the most strained supply and with huge needs in the global energy transition. 

Aluminium: Prices will likely be depressed versus marginal costs in 2024. Aluminium from Russia is flowing unhindered to the market. Most is going to China for reprocessing and potentially re-exported while some is going to Turkey and Italy. It is all flowing into the global pool of aluminium and as such impacting the global market balance. The LME 3mth aluminium price is currently well aligned with coal prices and both have traded mostly sideways since June this year. Aluminium premiums in the EU have however fallen 30-40% since mid-June in a sign of weakness there. The global market will likely run a surplus in 2024 with depressed prices versus the marginal cost of production.

Copper: Softer fundamentals in 2024 but with accelerating tightness on the horizon. Copper is currently trading at USD 8470/ton and close to 37% above its early Jan 2020 level. The market is expected to run a slight surplus in 2024 followed by accelerating tightness the following years. Downside price risk for 2024 is thus warranted along with softer global growth. The power of Unions is however getting stronger in Latin America with demands for higher salaries. Strikes have broken out in Peru with production at the Las Bambas copper mine at only 20%. Further strikes and disruptions could quickly put the market into deficit also in 2024.

Nickel: Indonesia pursuing market share over price pushing the price down the cost curve. Indonesia’s nickel production is growing rapidly. Its production reached 1.6 million ton in 2022 (+54% YoY) and accounted for close to 50% of total global supply in 2022. Its share looks set to reach 70% by 2030. Lower prices will stimulate demand and will also force higher cost producers to shut down thus making room for the wave of new supply from Indonesia. Prices will be sluggis the nearest years as Indonesia aims for market share over price.

Zinc: Price has stabilized around USD 2500/t. Weakness in global construction will drive prices lower at times in 2024. The 3mth LME zinc price has fallen from a peak of USD 4499/ton in April 2022 to only USD 2248/ton in May 2023. Since then, it has recovered steadily to USD 2500/ton.  Demand could struggle in 2024 as construction globally will likely struggle with high interest rates. But mine closures is a natural counter effect of low prices and will put a floor under prices.

Price outlook

SEB Commodities price outlook
Source: Historical values from Bloomberg, Price forecast by SEB


Bjarne Schieldrop
Cheif Commodities Analyst
SEB Commodity Research

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Analys

Now it’s up to OPEC+

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All eyes are now back at OPEC+ after the recent fall in oil prices along with weakening crude curve structures and weakening economic statistics. OPEC+ will have to step up the game and give solid guidance of what it intends to do in 2024. If Saudi Arabia is to carry the burden alone (with only a little help from Russia) it will likely need to keep its production at around 9.0 m b/d on average for 2024 and drop it down towards 8.5 m b/d in Q1-24. This may be too much to ask from Saudi Arabia and it may demand some of the other OPEC members to step up and join in on the task to regulate the market in 2024. More specifically this means Iraq, Kuwait and UAE. The oil market will likely be quite nervous until a firm message from Saudi/Russia/OPEC+ is delivered to the market some time in December.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Saudi Arabia may get some help from President Joe Biden though as his energy secretary adviser, Amos Hochstein, has stated that the US will enforce sanctions on Iran on more than 1 m b/d. 

Brent crude fell 4.6% ydy to USD 77.4/b and over the last three trading sessions it has lost USD 5.1/b. This morning it is trading only marginally higher at USD 77.6/b which is no vote of confidence. A good dose of rebound this morning would have been a signal that the sell-off yesterday possibly was exaggerated and solely driven by investors with long positions flocking to the exit. So there’s likely more downside to come.

In general there is a quite good relationship between net long speculative positions in Brent crude and WTI versus the global manufacturing cycle. Oil investors overall typically have an aversion of holding long positions in oil when the global economy is slowing down. As of yet there are few signs that the global economic cycle is about to turn. Rather the opposite seems to be the case. Global manufacturing fell in October and yesterday we saw US industrial production fall 0.6% MoM while continued jobless claims rose more than expected and to the highest level in two years. This matches well with the logic that the strong rise in interest rates since March 2022 is inflicting pain on the economy with more pain ahead as the effect comes with a lag.

Most estimates are that the global oil market is running a solid deficit in Q4-23. The IEA has an implied deficit in the global oil market of 1 m b/d in Q4-23 if we assume that OPEC will produce 28 m b/d vs. a call-on-OPEC at 29 m b/d. But prices in the oil market is telling a different story with weakening crude curves, weakening refining margins and a sharp sell-off in oil prices.

For 2024 the general forecasts are that global economic growth will slow, global oil demand growth will slow and also that the need for oil from OPEC will fall from 28.7 m b/d to 28.4 m b/d (IEA). This is a bearish environment for oil. The average Brent crude oil price so far this year is about USD 83/b. It should essentially be expected to deliver lower in 2024 with the negatives mentioned above.

Two things however will likely counter this and they are interconnected. US shale oil activity has been slowing with falling drilling rig count since early December 2022 and that has been happening at an average WTI price of USD 78/b. The result is that total US liquids production is set to grow by only 0.3 m b/d YoY in Q4-24. This allows OPEC+ to support the oil price at USD 80-90/b through 2024 without fear of loosing a significant market share to US oil production. Thus slowing US liquids production and active price management by OPEC+ goes hand in hand. As such we do expect OPEC+ to step up to the task.

So far it has predominantly been Saudi Arabia with a little help from Russia which together proactively have managed the oil market and the oil price through significant cuts. Saudi Arabia produced 10.5 m b/d in April but then cut production rapidly to only 9.0 m b/d which is what it still produces. Its normal production is about 10 m b/d.

What has made the situation more difficult for Saudi Arabia is the combination of solid growth in non-OPEC supply in 2023 (+2.1 m b/d YoY; IEA) but also a substantial revival in production by Venezuela and Iran. The two produced 660 k b/d more in October than they on average did in 2022. So the need for oil from Saudi Arabia is squeezed from both sides.

All eyes are now back at OPEC+ after the recent fall in oil prices along with weakening crude curve structures and weakening economic statistics.

OPEC+ will have to step up the game and give solid guidance of what it intends to do in 2024. If Saudi Arabia is to carry the burden alone (with only a little help from Russia) then it will likely need to keep its production at around 9.0 m b/d on average for 2024 and drop it down towards 8.5 m b/d in Q1-24. This may be too much to ask from Saudi Arabia and it may demand some of the other OPEC members to step up and join in on the task to regulate the market in 2024. More specifically this means Iraq, Kuwait and UAE.

The oil market will likely be quite nervous until a firm message from Saudi/Russia/OPEC+ is delivered to the market some time in December.

Saudi Arabia may get some help from President Joe Biden though as his energy secretary adviser, Amos Hochstein, has stated that the US will enforce sanctions on Iran on more than 1 m b/d.

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