Analys

Physical gold ETPs see largest inflows in 17 months

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11 år sedan

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6 augusti, 2014

Investors bought ETFS Physical gold ETPs at the highest pace in 17 months as geopolitical risks continued to rise and Argentina approached sovereign default again. The European Union and US have increased sanctions on the Russian economy reflecting the growing animosity between the world’s super-powers. That has led to growing demand for haven assets. Standard and Poor’s, the rating agency, declared Argentina in default after it had missed a deadline for paying interest on $13 billion of restructured bonds, which my lead to further demand for defensive assets. The US posted a strong economic recovery in Q2 2014, growing 4.0% year-on-year after the weather disrupted Q1 2014 growth. Stronger US growth combined with a rebound in Chinese data and more decisive monetary stimulus in the euro area should continue to be supportive of commodity prices – metals in particular – in the coming months.

Physical gold ETPs saw their highest inflows since March 2013. After such a long stretch of equity market outperformance, many investors appear to be protecting themselves against rising geopolitical risk by adding perceived defensive assets such as gold to their portfolios. Last week when the gold price fell 0.6%, investors used the opportunity to add to allocations, with US$106.4mn flowing into physical gold ETPs (US$109.6mn into all long gold ETPs).

Bargain hunting continues to attract investors to wheat. ETFS Wheat (WEAT) and ETFS Leveraged Wheat (LWEA) respectively received their 11th and 12th consecutive week of inflows. Wheat prices fell to their lowest level since 2009 about two weeks ago. Since then, a modest uptick in prices has continued to drive flows in wheat ETPs. The USDA’s crop progress report shows that the harvest is progressing well in the US, but there have been relatively few upside production forecast changes in recent weeks, adding to price stability. WEAT received US$4.7mn of inflows while LWEA received US$2.8mn last week.

ETFS Corn (CORN) saw highest inflows since March 2014. With prices having fallen to their lowest since 2010, inflows into CORN increased to US$3.7mn, marking three consecutive weeks of inflows. While the USDA crop report indicates continued improvement to yield and excellent progress in crop development, many investors feel that prices are now closer to a trough.

Long natural gas ETPs received US$5.8mn last week, marking the strongest monthly flows since November 2013. As prices slipped 0.2% last week (13.8% over the month), investors built positions. Although natural gas usage in electricity production usually increases in the summer months due to higher demand for air conditioning, relatively mild weather in many states has led to lower demand for natural gas this season compared to normal. However, abrupt weather changes could reverse this trend and with gas storage levels significantly below normal, many investors are positioned for a snap-back in prices.

Investors took profit on ETFS Daily Leveraged Coffee (LCFE), redeeming US$4.2mn, after prices rallied 9.4% in a week. Reports of colder and rainier weather in Brazil, which produces 45% of the world’s Arabica coffee crop led to strong price gains. Excess rain has the potential to stall the harvest which is underway and the cold could lead to frost damage. However the forecast is for drier and warmer weather now, prompting the profit taking.

Key events to watch this week. Policy meetings at the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England will likely be the focal point of market attention, while the evolving conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and the debt crisis in Argentina will also captivate the investor interest.

Relaterade ämnen:etf securities research

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SEB Jordbruksprodukter, 4 augusti 2014

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Risk hedges in favour on heightened geopolitical risks

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Annons

Analys

Stronger inventory build than consensus, diesel demand notable

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3 dagar sedan

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21 februari, 2025

Redaktionen

Yesterday’s US DOE report revealed an increase of 4.6 million barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending February 14. This build was slightly higher than the API’s forecast of +3.3 million barrels and compared with a consensus estimate of +3.5 million barrels. As of this week, total US crude inventories stand at 432.5 million barrels – ish 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

In addition, gasoline inventories saw a slight decrease of 0.2 million barrels, now about 1% below the five-year average. Diesel inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, marking a 12% drop from the five-year average for this period.

Refinery utilization averaged 84.9% of operable capacity, a slight decrease from the previous week. Refinery inputs averaged 15.4 million barrels per day, down by 15 thousand barrels per day from the prior week. Gasoline production decreased to an average of 9.2 million barrels per day, while diesel production increased to 4.7 million barrels per day.

Total products supplied (implied demand) over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, reflecting a 3.7% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Specifically, motor gasoline demand averaged 8.4 million barrels per day, up by 0.4% year-on-year, and diesel demand averaged 4.3 million barrels per day, showing a strong 14.2% increase compared to last year. Jet fuel demand also rose by 4.3% compared to the same period in 2024.

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Analys

Higher on confidence OPEC+ won’t lift production. Taking little notice of Trump sledgehammer to global free trade

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5 dagar sedan

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19 februari, 2025

Redaktionen

Ticking higher on confidence that OPEC+ won’t lift production in April. Brent crude gained 0.8% yesterday with a close of USD 75.84/b. This morning it is gaining another 0.7% to USD 76.3/b. Signals the latest days that OPEC+ is considering a delay to its planned production increase in April and the following months is probably the most important reason. But we would be surprised if that wasn’t fully anticipated and discounted in the oil price already. News this morning that there are ”green shots” to be seen in the Chinese property market is macro-positive, but industrial metals are not moving. It is naturally to be concerned about the global economic outlook as Donald Trump takes a sledgehammer smashing away at the existing global ”free-trade structure” with signals of 25% tariffs on car imports to the US. The oil price takes little notice of this today though.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Kazakhstan CPC crude flows possibly down 30% for months due to damaged CPC pumping station. The Brent price has been in steady decline since mid-January but seems to have found some support around the USD 74/b mark, the low point from Thursday last week. Technically it is inching above the 50dma today with 200dma above at USD 77.64/b. Oil flowing from Kazakhstan on the CPC line may be reduced by 30% until the Krapotkinskaya oil pumping station is repaired. That may take several months says Russia’s Novak. This probably helps to add support to Brent crude today.

The Brent crude 1mth contract with 50dma, 100dma, 200dma and RSI. Nothing on the horizon at the moment which makes us expect any imminent break above USD 80/b

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Analys

Brent looks to US production costs. Taking little notice of Trump-tariffs and Ukraine peace-dealing

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7 dagar sedan

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17 februari, 2025

Redaktionen

Brent crude hardly moved last week taking little notice of neither tariffs nor Ukraine peace-dealing. Brent crude traded up 0.1% last week to USD 74.74/b trading in a range of USD 74.06 – 77.29/b. Fluctuations through the week may have been driven by varying signals from the Putin-Trump peace negotiations over Ukraine. This morning Brent is up 0.4% to USD 75/b. Gain is possibly due to news that a Caspian pipeline pumping station has been hit by a drone with reduced CPC (Kazaksthan) oil flows as a result.

Brent front-month contract rock solid around the USD 75/b mark. The Brent crude price level of around USD 75/b hardly moved an inch week on week. Fear that Trump-tariffs will hurt global economic growth and oil demand growth. No impact. Possibility that a peace deal over Ukraine will lead to increased exports of oil from Russia. No impact. On the latter. Russian oil production at 9 mb/band versus a more normal 10 mb/d and comparably lower exports is NOT due to sanctions by the EU and the US. Russia is part of OPEC+, and its production is aligned with Saudi Arabia at 9 mb/d and the agreement Russia has made with Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Though exports of Russian crude and products has been hampered a little by the new Biden-sanctions on 10 January, but that effect is probably fading by the day as oil flows have a tendency to seep through the sanction barriers over time. A sharp decline in time-spreads is probably a sign of that.

Longer-dated prices zoom in on US cost break-evens with 5yr WTI at USD 63/b and Brent at USD 68-b. Argus reported on Friday that a Kansas City Fed survey last month indicated an average of USD 62/b for average drilling and oil production in the US to be profitable. That is down from USD 64/b last year. In comparison the 5-year (60mth) WTI contract is trading at USD 62.8/b. Right at that level. The survey response also stated that an oil price of sub-USD 70/b won’t be enough over time for the US oil industry to make sufficient profits with decline capex over time with sub-USD 70/b prices. But for now, the WTI 5yr is trading at USD 62.8/b and the Brent crude 5-yr is trading at USD 67.7/b.

Volatility comes in waves. Brent crude 30dma annualized volatility.