Analys

Commodities continue to attract investor attention

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10 år sedan

den

27 oktober, 2014

Commodity ETPs saw their largest inflows in six weeks, with bargain-hunters attracted by depressed valuations. Several commodities including Brent, platinum, palladium and most industrial metals rose last week rebounding on the back of the better investor sentiment toward commodities. With many commodities trading so close to their marginal cost of production, we believe that prices cannot fall much lower without triggering a supply response. Better-than-expected GDP and industrial production data from China, the world’s largest consumer of commodities, also helped boost cyclical commodity prices.

Inflows into physical gold reach six week highs. There was US$22.6mn of inflows into physical gold last week as the price of the metal fell a further 0.4%. With gold trading just above our estimated marginal cost of production (US$1,100/lb), a natural floor to the metal appears to have been reached.

Bargain hunting drives US$12.3mn into long crude oil ETPs, a seven week high. After reaching a 5-year low the previous week, Brent oil, recovered 2.8% last week. WTI on the other hand continued to slip 0.7%. At bargain prices, ETP investors bought into crude, with US$5.1mn flowing into long Brent ETPs and US$7.2mn into long WTI ETPs. According to media reports (although not confirmed officially), Saudi Arabia cut supplies by 328,000 barrels a day in September to 9.36 million barrels a day. Ample supply has been weighing on prices and if confirmed, Saudi’s moves could help prices recover further.

ETFS Daily Leveraged Natural (LNGA) attracts US$9.mn as Henry Hub prices slide 4.6%. Natural gas prices fell as working gas in storage rose 94Bcf last week. Storage values however remain 9.0% below year-ago levels and 9.1% below the 5-year historical average. Natural gas is a commodity that is highly sensitive to changes in weather that experience sharp supply drawdowns and investors are betting on a price rebound ahead of winter peak demand.

ETFS Platinum Trust (PPLT) sees largest outflow since March on profit-taking. Platinum rose 1.5% last week driving a US$6.1mn redemption from PPLT. Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) disclosed that the five-month strike earlier this year had cost the company 424,000 ounces in lost production and it lost a further 108,000 ounces in the subsequent ramp-up. However, it also confirmed it has resumed production a month ahead of schedule, which could cap gains in the near-term.

An 11% decline in coffee prices led to profit-taking for ETFS Daily Short Coffee (SCFE). US$2.2mn was redeemed from SCFE, marking the highest outflow from the short coffee ETP since May. The violent price moves have polarised investors with US$1.6mn flowing into ETFS Daily Leveraged Coffee (LCFE) last week – the highest in six weeks. Drought and irregular rain in Brazil, the world’s top producer has hurt the prospect for the 2015 crop. However, with rains resuming, the flowering process has started for the 2015 crop, but analysts are divided in their opinion as to the extent the earlier disruptions will damage the crop.

Key events to watch this week. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in which the central bank is expected to announce the end of its asset buying programme. Any extension of its programme could trigger a rally in gold prices as currency debasement fears linger for longer. Weighing on investors’ minds is the prospect of rate rises, which we expect to occur in H1 2015. Investors will listen for cues from the Fed on this front.

Relaterade ämnen:etf securities research

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Analys

Stronger inventory build than consensus, diesel demand notable

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2 dagar sedan

den

21 februari, 2025

Redaktionen

Yesterday’s US DOE report revealed an increase of 4.6 million barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending February 14. This build was slightly higher than the API’s forecast of +3.3 million barrels and compared with a consensus estimate of +3.5 million barrels. As of this week, total US crude inventories stand at 432.5 million barrels – ish 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

In addition, gasoline inventories saw a slight decrease of 0.2 million barrels, now about 1% below the five-year average. Diesel inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, marking a 12% drop from the five-year average for this period.

Refinery utilization averaged 84.9% of operable capacity, a slight decrease from the previous week. Refinery inputs averaged 15.4 million barrels per day, down by 15 thousand barrels per day from the prior week. Gasoline production decreased to an average of 9.2 million barrels per day, while diesel production increased to 4.7 million barrels per day.

Total products supplied (implied demand) over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, reflecting a 3.7% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Specifically, motor gasoline demand averaged 8.4 million barrels per day, up by 0.4% year-on-year, and diesel demand averaged 4.3 million barrels per day, showing a strong 14.2% increase compared to last year. Jet fuel demand also rose by 4.3% compared to the same period in 2024.

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Analys

Higher on confidence OPEC+ won’t lift production. Taking little notice of Trump sledgehammer to global free trade

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4 dagar sedan

den

19 februari, 2025

Redaktionen

Ticking higher on confidence that OPEC+ won’t lift production in April. Brent crude gained 0.8% yesterday with a close of USD 75.84/b. This morning it is gaining another 0.7% to USD 76.3/b. Signals the latest days that OPEC+ is considering a delay to its planned production increase in April and the following months is probably the most important reason. But we would be surprised if that wasn’t fully anticipated and discounted in the oil price already. News this morning that there are ”green shots” to be seen in the Chinese property market is macro-positive, but industrial metals are not moving. It is naturally to be concerned about the global economic outlook as Donald Trump takes a sledgehammer smashing away at the existing global ”free-trade structure” with signals of 25% tariffs on car imports to the US. The oil price takes little notice of this today though.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Kazakhstan CPC crude flows possibly down 30% for months due to damaged CPC pumping station. The Brent price has been in steady decline since mid-January but seems to have found some support around the USD 74/b mark, the low point from Thursday last week. Technically it is inching above the 50dma today with 200dma above at USD 77.64/b. Oil flowing from Kazakhstan on the CPC line may be reduced by 30% until the Krapotkinskaya oil pumping station is repaired. That may take several months says Russia’s Novak. This probably helps to add support to Brent crude today.

The Brent crude 1mth contract with 50dma, 100dma, 200dma and RSI. Nothing on the horizon at the moment which makes us expect any imminent break above USD 80/b

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Analys

Brent looks to US production costs. Taking little notice of Trump-tariffs and Ukraine peace-dealing

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6 dagar sedan

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17 februari, 2025

Redaktionen

Brent crude hardly moved last week taking little notice of neither tariffs nor Ukraine peace-dealing. Brent crude traded up 0.1% last week to USD 74.74/b trading in a range of USD 74.06 – 77.29/b. Fluctuations through the week may have been driven by varying signals from the Putin-Trump peace negotiations over Ukraine. This morning Brent is up 0.4% to USD 75/b. Gain is possibly due to news that a Caspian pipeline pumping station has been hit by a drone with reduced CPC (Kazaksthan) oil flows as a result.

Brent front-month contract rock solid around the USD 75/b mark. The Brent crude price level of around USD 75/b hardly moved an inch week on week. Fear that Trump-tariffs will hurt global economic growth and oil demand growth. No impact. Possibility that a peace deal over Ukraine will lead to increased exports of oil from Russia. No impact. On the latter. Russian oil production at 9 mb/band versus a more normal 10 mb/d and comparably lower exports is NOT due to sanctions by the EU and the US. Russia is part of OPEC+, and its production is aligned with Saudi Arabia at 9 mb/d and the agreement Russia has made with Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Though exports of Russian crude and products has been hampered a little by the new Biden-sanctions on 10 January, but that effect is probably fading by the day as oil flows have a tendency to seep through the sanction barriers over time. A sharp decline in time-spreads is probably a sign of that.

Longer-dated prices zoom in on US cost break-evens with 5yr WTI at USD 63/b and Brent at USD 68-b. Argus reported on Friday that a Kansas City Fed survey last month indicated an average of USD 62/b for average drilling and oil production in the US to be profitable. That is down from USD 64/b last year. In comparison the 5-year (60mth) WTI contract is trading at USD 62.8/b. Right at that level. The survey response also stated that an oil price of sub-USD 70/b won’t be enough over time for the US oil industry to make sufficient profits with decline capex over time with sub-USD 70/b prices. But for now, the WTI 5yr is trading at USD 62.8/b and the Brent crude 5-yr is trading at USD 67.7/b.

Volatility comes in waves. Brent crude 30dma annualized volatility.