Följ oss

Analys

Brent knuffar undan WTI från topplatsen

Publicerat

den

Oljekarta

The S&P GSCI 2015 Rebalance Preview markerar ett historiskt skifte i den globala oljehandeln. Enligt det tillkännagivande som nyligen kommunicerades avseende re-balanseringen av indexvikterna kommer råoljan Brent att överta rollen som det ledande referenspriset för oljehandeln från WTI, West Texas Intermediate, och får den tyngsta vikten i råvaruindexet S&P GSCI. Det är därmed den första gången sedan 1997 som WTI inte är den viktigaste råvaran i detta index. Under perioden 1994 till och med 1997 hade naturgas en tyngre vikt än WTI.

Oljorna brent och wti

År 1987 adderades WTI till S&P GSCI och fick då en vikt på cirka 35 procent, en vikt som reducerades till 32,6 procent i slutet av det året. Brent adderades till detta index så sent som 1999 och fick då vikten 7,5 procent. I slutet av 1999, i samband med den årliga översynen av indexet, ökade vikten för Brent till 10,9 procent, medan WTI fick se sin vikt reducerad till 26,3 procent.

I juni 2008 ökade vikten för WTI till 40,6 procent, men i samband med utgången av det tredje kvartalet 2014 rasade denna vikt till 25,5 procent medan vikten för Brent ökade till 22,9 procent. Pro forma-vikten för 2015 är 24,7, vilket är nästan dubbelt så stort som 2008 års nivåer och mer än tre gånger så stort som den vikt Brent hade när denna råolja introducerades i detta index.

Dynamiken i oljehandeln har förändrats, något som är speciellt märkbart sedan 2010 när vi fick se en explosiv produktionstillväxt från skifferoljefälten i Texas och North Dakota. Vid samma tidpunkt kom den kanadensiska importen av olja till USA att öka kraftigt. Det ökade utbudet ledde till flaskhalsar och ett överutbud i oljedepåerna i Cushing vilket satte en prispress på WTI. Vi har sedan dess vid ett flertal tillfällen sett hur WTI, som egentligen är en råolja av en finare kvalité än Brent, handlas med rabatt mot Brentoljan. Nu har rörledningskapaciteten ökats och transporterna förbättras för att minska Brent-premien.

Diagrammet nedan visar hur premien för Brent gått från närmare 20 USD per fat till att de två olika råoljorna handlas i paritet.

Brent-WTI index level spread

I Nordamerika, men också i viss mån Sydamerika, har WTI fortsatt att fungera som ett riktmärke för prissättningen av råolja, men allt fler USA-baserade aktörer har börjat använda Brent när de hedgar sin produktion på grund av den ökade globala och fundamentala betydelsen som denna råolja kommit att få på senare år. Det har även med den amerikanska lagstiftningen av oljeexport att göra. Det finns i dag ingen begränsning eller restriktioner av export eller import av Brent, något som gäller för WTI-oljan, vilket gör att Brent är ett effektivare instrument för att hedga oljeproduktion på den globala marknaden.

Nedan finns en karta som visar den ökade påverkan som Brentolja fått när det gäller att fungera som ett referenspris i prissättningen för oljehandeln.

Prissättning på olja i världen

Kan detta innebära en större möjlighet för producenterna att prissäkra sin produktion? Nyligen kollapsade Brent-kurvan som en följd av den negativa trenden för Atlantic Basin och den asiatiska importen från Västafrika. Detta har emellertid lett till en press på producenterna i Mellanöstern och kan komma att tvinga dessa att skära ned sin produktion. Det betyder att det finns både Bull- och Bear-tendenser när det gäller prissättningen av Brent. Detta gör det också troligt att vi kommer att få se hur denna råolja kommer att handlas i intervaller, sannolikt lägre intervaller.

På sikt är det sannolikt att vi kommer att få se fler utbudsstörningar i den globala oljeproduktionen. Den region som skulle kunna leverera en ökad produktion skulle kunna vara Mellanöstern, men frågan är om det kommer att ske i närtid. Även en ökad raffinaderikapacitet i Mellanöstern kan komma att spela en viktig roll för produktionsökningarna. På kort sikt ser vi att det är osannolikt att produktionen i Nigeria och Venezuela kan komma att öka så pass mycket att den kan ersätta utbudsstörningarna i Nigeria och Irak.

Analys

Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b to make cheating unprofitable for Kazakhstan

Publicerat

den

SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent jumping 2.4% as OPEC+ lifts quota by ”only” 411 kb/d in July. Brent crude is jumping 2.4% this morning to USD 64.3/b following the decision by OPEC+ this weekend to lift the production cap of ”Voluntary 8” (V8) by 411 kb/d in July and not more as was feared going into the weekend. The motivation for the triple hikes of 411 kb/d in May and June and now also in July has been a bit unclear: 1) Cheating by Kazakhstan and Iraq, 2) Muhammed bin Salman listening to Donald Trump for more oil and a lower oil price in exchange for weapons deals and political alignments in the Middle East and lastly 3) Higher supply to meet higher demand for oil this summer. The argument that they are taking back market share was already decided in the original plan of unwinding the 2.2 mb/d of V8 voluntary cuts by the end of 2026. The surprise has been the unexpected speed with monthly increases of 3×137 kb/d/mth rather than just 137 kb/d monthly steps.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

No surplus yet. Time-spreads tightened last week. US inventories fell the week before last. In support of point 3) above it is worth noting that the Brent crude oil front-end backwardation strengthened last week (sign of tightness) even when the market was fearing for a production hike of more than 411 kb/d for July. US crude, diesel and gasoline stocks fell the week before last with overall commercial stocks falling 0.7 mb versus a normal rise this time of year of 3-6 mb per week. So surplus is not here yet. And more oil from OPEC+ is welcomed by consumers.

Saudi Arabia calling the shots with Russia objecting. This weekend however we got to know a little bit more. Saudi Arabia was predominantly calling the shots and decided the outcome. Russia together with Oman and Algeria opposed the hike in July and instead argued for zero increase. What this alures to in our view is that it is probably the cheating by Kazakhstan and Iraq which is at the heart of the unexpectedly fast monthly increases. Saudi Arabia cannot allow it to be profitable for the individual members to cheat. And especially so when Kazakhstan explicitly and blatantly rejects its quota obligation stating that they have no plans of cutting production from 1.77 mb/d to 1.47 mb/d. And when not even Russia is able to whip Kazakhstan into line, then the whole V8 project is kind of over.

Is it simply a decision by Saudi Arabia to unwind faster altogether? What is still puzzling though is that despite the three monthly hikes of 411 kb/d, the revival of the 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts is still kind of orderly. Saudi Arabia could have just abandoned the whole V8 project from one month to the next. But we have seen no explicit communication that the plan of reviving the cuts by the end of 2026 has been abandoned. It may be that it is simply a general change of mind by Saudi Arabia where the new view is that production cuts altogether needs to be unwinded sooner rather than later. For Saudi Arabia it means getting its production back up to 10 mb/d. That implies first unwinding the 2.2 mb/d and then the next 1.6 mb/d.

Brent would likely crash with a fast unwind of 2.2 + 1.6 mb/d by year end. If Saudi Arabia has decided on a fast unwind it would meant that the group would lift the quotas by 411 kb/d both in August and in September. It would then basically be done with the 2.2 mb/d revival. Thereafter directly embark on reviving the remaining 1.6 mb/d. That would imply a very sad end of the year for the oil price. It would then probably crash in Q4-25. But it is far from clear that this is where we are heading.

Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b or lower to make it unprofitable for Kazakhstan to cheat. To make it unprofitable for Kazakhstan to cheat. Kazakhstan is currently producing 1.77 mb/d versus its quota which before the hikes stood at 1.47 kb/d. If they had cut back to the quota level they might have gotten USD 70/b or USD 103/day. Instead they choose to keep production at 1.77 mb/d. For Saudi Arabia to make it a loss-making business for Kazakhstan to cheat the oil price needs to fall below USD 58/b ( 103/1.77).

Fortsätt läsa

Analys

All eyes on OPEC V8 and their July quota decision on Saturday

Publicerat

den

SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Tariffs or no tariffs played ping pong with Brent crude yesterday. Brent crude traded to a joyous high of USD 66.13/b yesterday as a US court rejected Trump’s tariffs. Though that ruling was later overturned again with Brent closing down 1.2% on the day to USD 64.15/b. 

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

US commercial oil inventories fell 0.7 mb last week versus a seasonal normal rise of 3-6 mb. US commercial crude and product stocks fell 0.7 mb last week which is fairly bullish since the seasonal normal is for a rise of  4.3 mb. US crude stocks fell 2.8 mb, Distillates fell 0.7 mb and Gasoline stocks fell 2.4 mb.

All eyes are now on OPEC V8 (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Algeria, Russia, Oman, Kazakhstan) which will make a decision tomorrow on what to do with production for July. Overall they are in a process of placing 2.2 mb/d of cuts back into the market over a period stretching out to December 2026. Following an expected hike of 137 kb/d in April they surprised the market by lifting production targets by 411 kb/d for May and then an additional 411 kb/d again for June. It is widely expected that the group will decide to lift production targets by another 411 kb/d also for July. That is probably mostly priced in the market. As such it will probably not have all that much of a bearish bearish price impact on Monday if they do.

It is still a bit unclear what is going on and why they are lifting production so rapidly rather than at a very gradual pace towards the end of 2026. One argument is that the oil is needed in the market as Middle East demand rises sharply in summertime. Another is that the group is partially listening to Donald Trump which has called for more oil and a lower price. The last is that Saudi Arabia is angry with Kazakhstan which has produced 300 kb/d more than its quota with no indications that they will adhere to their quota.

So far we have heard no explicit signal from the group that they have abandoned the plan of measured increases with monthly assessments so that the 2.2 mb/d is fully back in the market by the end of 2026. If the V8 group continues to lift quotas by 411 kb/d every month they will have revived the production by the full 2.2 mb/d already in September this year. There are clearly some expectations in the market that this is indeed what they actually will do. But this is far from given. Thus any verbal wrapping around the decision for July quotas on Saturday will be very important and can have a significant impact on the oil price. So far they have been tightlipped beyond what they will do beyond the month in question and have said nothing about abandoning the ”gradually towards the end of 2026” plan. It is thus a good chance that they will ease back on the hikes come August, maybe do no changes for a couple of months or even cut the quotas back a little if needed.

Significant OPEC+ spare capacity will be placed back into the market over the coming 1-2 years. What we do know though is that OPEC+ as a whole as well as the V8 subgroup specifically have significant spare capacity at hand which will be placed back into the market over the coming year or two or three. Probably an increase of around 3.0 – 3.5 mb/d. There is only two ways to get it back into the market. The oil price must be sufficiently low so that 1) Demand growth is stronger and 2) US shale oil backs off. In combo allowing the spare capacity back into the market.

Low global inventories stands ready to soak up 200-300 mb of oil. What will cushion the downside for the oil price for a while over the coming year is that current, global oil inventories are low and stand ready to soak up surplus production to the tune of 200-300 mb.

Fortsätt läsa

Analys

Brent steady at $65 ahead of OPEC+ and Iran outcomes

Publicerat

den

SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Following the rebound on Wednesday last week – when Brent reached an intra-week high of USD 66.6 per barrel – crude oil prices have since trended lower. Since opening at USD 65.4 per barrel on Monday this week, prices have softened slightly and are currently trading around USD 64.7 per barrel.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

This morning, oil prices are trading sideways to slightly positive, supported by signs of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU. European equities climbed while long-term government bond yields declined after President Trump announced a pause in new tariffs yesterday, encouraging hopes of a transatlantic trade agreement.

The optimisms were further supported by reports indicating that the EU has agreed to fast-track trade negotiations with the U.S.

More significantly, crude prices appear to be consolidating around the USD 65 level as markets await the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. We expect the group to finalize its July output plans – driven by the eight key producers known as the “Voluntary Eight” – on May 31st, one day ahead of the original schedule.

We assign a high probability to another sizeable output increase of 411,000 barrels per day. However, this potential hike seems largely priced in already. While a minor price dip may occur on opening next week (Monday morning), we expect market reactions to remain relatively muted.

Meanwhile, the U.S. president expressed optimism following the latest round of nuclear talks with Iran in Rome, describing them as “very good.” Although such statements should be taken with caution, a positive outcome now appears more plausible. A successful agreement could eventually lead to the return of more Iranian barrels to the global market.

Fortsätt läsa

Centaur

Guldcentralen

Fokus

Annons

Gratis uppdateringar om råvarumarknaden

*

Populära