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Brent knuffar undan WTI från topplatsen

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Oljekarta

The S&P GSCI 2015 Rebalance Preview markerar ett historiskt skifte i den globala oljehandeln. Enligt det tillkännagivande som nyligen kommunicerades avseende re-balanseringen av indexvikterna kommer råoljan Brent att överta rollen som det ledande referenspriset för oljehandeln från WTI, West Texas Intermediate, och får den tyngsta vikten i råvaruindexet S&P GSCI. Det är därmed den första gången sedan 1997 som WTI inte är den viktigaste råvaran i detta index. Under perioden 1994 till och med 1997 hade naturgas en tyngre vikt än WTI.

Oljorna brent och wti

År 1987 adderades WTI till S&P GSCI och fick då en vikt på cirka 35 procent, en vikt som reducerades till 32,6 procent i slutet av det året. Brent adderades till detta index så sent som 1999 och fick då vikten 7,5 procent. I slutet av 1999, i samband med den årliga översynen av indexet, ökade vikten för Brent till 10,9 procent, medan WTI fick se sin vikt reducerad till 26,3 procent.

I juni 2008 ökade vikten för WTI till 40,6 procent, men i samband med utgången av det tredje kvartalet 2014 rasade denna vikt till 25,5 procent medan vikten för Brent ökade till 22,9 procent. Pro forma-vikten för 2015 är 24,7, vilket är nästan dubbelt så stort som 2008 års nivåer och mer än tre gånger så stort som den vikt Brent hade när denna råolja introducerades i detta index.

Dynamiken i oljehandeln har förändrats, något som är speciellt märkbart sedan 2010 när vi fick se en explosiv produktionstillväxt från skifferoljefälten i Texas och North Dakota. Vid samma tidpunkt kom den kanadensiska importen av olja till USA att öka kraftigt. Det ökade utbudet ledde till flaskhalsar och ett överutbud i oljedepåerna i Cushing vilket satte en prispress på WTI. Vi har sedan dess vid ett flertal tillfällen sett hur WTI, som egentligen är en råolja av en finare kvalité än Brent, handlas med rabatt mot Brentoljan. Nu har rörledningskapaciteten ökats och transporterna förbättras för att minska Brent-premien.

Diagrammet nedan visar hur premien för Brent gått från närmare 20 USD per fat till att de två olika råoljorna handlas i paritet.

Brent-WTI index level spread

I Nordamerika, men också i viss mån Sydamerika, har WTI fortsatt att fungera som ett riktmärke för prissättningen av råolja, men allt fler USA-baserade aktörer har börjat använda Brent när de hedgar sin produktion på grund av den ökade globala och fundamentala betydelsen som denna råolja kommit att få på senare år. Det har även med den amerikanska lagstiftningen av oljeexport att göra. Det finns i dag ingen begränsning eller restriktioner av export eller import av Brent, något som gäller för WTI-oljan, vilket gör att Brent är ett effektivare instrument för att hedga oljeproduktion på den globala marknaden.

Nedan finns en karta som visar den ökade påverkan som Brentolja fått när det gäller att fungera som ett referenspris i prissättningen för oljehandeln.

Prissättning på olja i världen

Kan detta innebära en större möjlighet för producenterna att prissäkra sin produktion? Nyligen kollapsade Brent-kurvan som en följd av den negativa trenden för Atlantic Basin och den asiatiska importen från Västafrika. Detta har emellertid lett till en press på producenterna i Mellanöstern och kan komma att tvinga dessa att skära ned sin produktion. Det betyder att det finns både Bull- och Bear-tendenser när det gäller prissättningen av Brent. Detta gör det också troligt att vi kommer att få se hur denna råolja kommer att handlas i intervaller, sannolikt lägre intervaller.

På sikt är det sannolikt att vi kommer att få se fler utbudsstörningar i den globala oljeproduktionen. Den region som skulle kunna leverera en ökad produktion skulle kunna vara Mellanöstern, men frågan är om det kommer att ske i närtid. Även en ökad raffinaderikapacitet i Mellanöstern kan komma att spela en viktig roll för produktionsökningarna. På kort sikt ser vi att det är osannolikt att produktionen i Nigeria och Venezuela kan komma att öka så pass mycket att den kan ersätta utbudsstörningarna i Nigeria och Irak.

Analys

Tightening fundamentals – bullish inventories from DOE

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

The latest weekly report from the US DOE showed a substantial drawdown across key petroleum categories, adding more upside potential to the fundamental picture.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Commercial crude inventories (excl. SPR) fell by 5.8 million barrels, bringing total inventories down to 415.1 million barrels. Now sitting 11% below the five-year seasonal norm and placed in the lowest 2015-2022 range (see picture below).

Product inventories also tightened further last week. Gasoline inventories declined by 2.1 million barrels, with reductions seen in both finished gasoline and blending components. Current gasoline levels are about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Among products, the most notable move came in diesel, where inventories dropped by almost 4.1 million barrels, deepening the deficit to around 20% below seasonal norms – continuing to underscore the persistent supply tightness in diesel markets.

The only area of inventory growth was in propane/propylene, which posted a significant 5.1-million-barrel build and now stands 9% above the five-year average.

Total commercial petroleum inventories (crude plus refined products) declined by 4.2 million barrels on the week, reinforcing the overall tightening of US crude and products.

US DOE, inventories, change in million barrels per week
US crude inventories excl. SPR in million barrels
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Analys

Bombs to ”ceasefire” in hours – Brent below $70

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

A classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news” played out in oil markets, as Brent crude has dropped sharply – down nearly USD 10 per barrel since yesterday evening – following Iran’s retaliatory strike on a U.S. air base in Qatar. The immediate reaction was: “That was it?” The strike followed a carefully calibrated, non-escalatory playbook, avoiding direct threats to energy infrastructure or disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – thus calming worst-case fears.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

After Monday morning’s sharp spike to USD 81.4 per barrel, triggered by the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, oil prices drifted sideways in anticipation of a potential Iranian response. That response came with advance warning and caused limited physical damage. Early this morning, both the U.S. President and Iranian state media announced a ceasefire, effectively placing a lid on the immediate conflict risk – at least for now.

As a result, Brent crude has now fallen by a total of USD 12 from Monday’s peak, currently trading around USD 69 per barrel.

Looking beyond geopolitics, the market will now shift its focus to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in early July. Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase output earlier this year – despite falling prices – has drawn renewed attention considering recent developments. Some suggest this was a response to U.S. pressure to offset potential Iranian supply losses.

However, consensus is that the move was driven more by internal OPEC+ dynamics. After years of curbing production to support prices, Riyadh had grown frustrated with quota-busting by several members (notably Kazakhstan). With Saudi Arabia cutting up to 2 million barrels per day – roughly 2% of global supply – returns were diminishing, and the risk of losing market share was rising. The production increase is widely seen as an effort to reassert leadership and restore discipline within the group.

That said, the FT recently stated that, the Saudis remain wary of past missteps. In 2018, Riyadh ramped up output at Trump’s request ahead of Iran sanctions, only to see prices collapse when the U.S. granted broad waivers – triggering oversupply. Officials have reportedly made it clear they don’t intend to repeat that mistake.

The recent visit by President Trump to Saudi Arabia, which included agreements on AI, defense, and nuclear cooperation, suggests a broader strategic alignment. This has fueled speculation about a quiet “pump-for-politics” deal behind recent production moves.

Looking ahead, oil prices have now retraced the entire rally sparked by the June 13 Israel–Iran escalation. This retreat provides more political and policy space for both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Specifically, it makes it easier for Riyadh to scale back its three recent production hikes of 411,000 barrels each, potentially returning to more moderate increases of 137,000 barrels for August and September.

In short: with no major loss of Iranian supply to the market, OPEC+ – led by Saudi Arabia – no longer needs to compensate for a disruption that hasn’t materialized, especially not to please the U.S. at the cost of its own market strategy. As the Saudis themselves have signaled, they are unlikely to repeat previous mistakes.

Conclusion: With Brent now in the high USD 60s, buying oil looks fundamentally justified. The geopolitical premium has deflated, but tensions between Israel and Iran remain unresolved – and the risk of missteps and renewed escalation still lingers. In fact, even this morning, reports have emerged of renewed missile fire despite the declared “truce.” The path forward may be calmer – but it is far from stable.

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Analys

A muted price reaction. Market looks relaxed, but it is still on edge waiting for what Iran will do

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crossed the 80-line this morning but quickly fell back assigning limited probability for Iran choosing to close the Strait of Hormuz. Brent traded in a range of USD 70.56 – 79.04/b last week as the market fluctuated between ”Iran wants a deal” and ”US is about to attack Iran”. At the end of the week though, Donald Trump managed to convince markets (and probably also Iran) that he would make a decision within two weeks. I.e. no imminent attack. Previously when when he has talked about ”making a decision within two weeks” he has often ended up doing nothing in the end. The oil market relaxed as a result and the week ended at USD 77.01/b which is just USD 6/b above the year to date average of USD 71/b.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Brent jumped to USD 81.4/b this morning, the highest since mid-January, but then quickly fell back to a current price of USD 78.2/b which is only up 1.5% versus the close on Friday. As such the market is pricing a fairly low probability that Iran will actually close the Strait of Hormuz. Probably because it will hurt Iranian oil exports as well as the global oil market.

It was however all smoke and mirrors. Deception. The US attacked Iran on Saturday. The attack involved 125 warplanes, submarines and surface warships and 14 bunker buster bombs were dropped on Iranian nuclear sites including Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. In response the Iranian Parliament voted in support of closing the Strait of Hormuz where some 17 mb of crude and products is transported to the global market every day plus significant volumes of LNG. This is however merely an advise to the Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council which sits with the final and actual decision.

No supply of oil is lost yet. It is about the risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz or not. So far not a single drop of oil supply has been lost to the global market. The price at the moment is all about the assessed risk of loss of supply. Will Iran choose to choke of the Strait of Hormuz or not? That is the big question. It would be painful for US consumers, for Donald Trump’s voter base, for the global economy but also for Iran and its population which relies on oil exports and income from selling oil out of that Strait as well. As such it is not a no-brainer choice for Iran to close the Strait for oil exports. And looking at the il price this morning it is clear that the oil market doesn’t assign a very high probability of it happening. It is however probably well within the capability of Iran to close the Strait off with rockets, mines, air-drones and possibly sea-drones. Just look at how Ukraine has been able to control and damage the Russian Black Sea fleet.

What to do about the highly enriched uranium which has gone missing? While the US and Israel can celebrate their destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities they are also scratching their heads over what to do with the lost Iranian nuclear material. Iran had 408 kg of highly enriched uranium (IAEA). Almost weapons grade. Enough for some 10 nuclear warheads. It seems to have been transported out of Fordow before the attack this weekend. 

The market is still on edge. USD 80-something/b seems sensible while we wait. The oil market reaction to this weekend’s events is very muted so far. The market is still on edge awaiting what Iran will do. Because Iran will do something. But what and when? An oil price of 80-something seems like a sensible level until something do happen.

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