Följ oss

Analys

Brent knuffar undan WTI från topplatsen

Publicerat

den

Oljekarta

The S&P GSCI 2015 Rebalance Preview markerar ett historiskt skifte i den globala oljehandeln. Enligt det tillkännagivande som nyligen kommunicerades avseende re-balanseringen av indexvikterna kommer råoljan Brent att överta rollen som det ledande referenspriset för oljehandeln från WTI, West Texas Intermediate, och får den tyngsta vikten i råvaruindexet S&P GSCI. Det är därmed den första gången sedan 1997 som WTI inte är den viktigaste råvaran i detta index. Under perioden 1994 till och med 1997 hade naturgas en tyngre vikt än WTI.

Oljorna brent och wti

År 1987 adderades WTI till S&P GSCI och fick då en vikt på cirka 35 procent, en vikt som reducerades till 32,6 procent i slutet av det året. Brent adderades till detta index så sent som 1999 och fick då vikten 7,5 procent. I slutet av 1999, i samband med den årliga översynen av indexet, ökade vikten för Brent till 10,9 procent, medan WTI fick se sin vikt reducerad till 26,3 procent.

I juni 2008 ökade vikten för WTI till 40,6 procent, men i samband med utgången av det tredje kvartalet 2014 rasade denna vikt till 25,5 procent medan vikten för Brent ökade till 22,9 procent. Pro forma-vikten för 2015 är 24,7, vilket är nästan dubbelt så stort som 2008 års nivåer och mer än tre gånger så stort som den vikt Brent hade när denna råolja introducerades i detta index.

Dynamiken i oljehandeln har förändrats, något som är speciellt märkbart sedan 2010 när vi fick se en explosiv produktionstillväxt från skifferoljefälten i Texas och North Dakota. Vid samma tidpunkt kom den kanadensiska importen av olja till USA att öka kraftigt. Det ökade utbudet ledde till flaskhalsar och ett överutbud i oljedepåerna i Cushing vilket satte en prispress på WTI. Vi har sedan dess vid ett flertal tillfällen sett hur WTI, som egentligen är en råolja av en finare kvalité än Brent, handlas med rabatt mot Brentoljan. Nu har rörledningskapaciteten ökats och transporterna förbättras för att minska Brent-premien.

Diagrammet nedan visar hur premien för Brent gått från närmare 20 USD per fat till att de två olika råoljorna handlas i paritet.

Brent-WTI index level spread

I Nordamerika, men också i viss mån Sydamerika, har WTI fortsatt att fungera som ett riktmärke för prissättningen av råolja, men allt fler USA-baserade aktörer har börjat använda Brent när de hedgar sin produktion på grund av den ökade globala och fundamentala betydelsen som denna råolja kommit att få på senare år. Det har även med den amerikanska lagstiftningen av oljeexport att göra. Det finns i dag ingen begränsning eller restriktioner av export eller import av Brent, något som gäller för WTI-oljan, vilket gör att Brent är ett effektivare instrument för att hedga oljeproduktion på den globala marknaden.

Nedan finns en karta som visar den ökade påverkan som Brentolja fått när det gäller att fungera som ett referenspris i prissättningen för oljehandeln.

Prissättning på olja i världen

Kan detta innebära en större möjlighet för producenterna att prissäkra sin produktion? Nyligen kollapsade Brent-kurvan som en följd av den negativa trenden för Atlantic Basin och den asiatiska importen från Västafrika. Detta har emellertid lett till en press på producenterna i Mellanöstern och kan komma att tvinga dessa att skära ned sin produktion. Det betyder att det finns både Bull- och Bear-tendenser när det gäller prissättningen av Brent. Detta gör det också troligt att vi kommer att få se hur denna råolja kommer att handlas i intervaller, sannolikt lägre intervaller.

På sikt är det sannolikt att vi kommer att få se fler utbudsstörningar i den globala oljeproduktionen. Den region som skulle kunna leverera en ökad produktion skulle kunna vara Mellanöstern, men frågan är om det kommer att ske i närtid. Även en ökad raffinaderikapacitet i Mellanöstern kan komma att spela en viktig roll för produktionsökningarna. På kort sikt ser vi att det är osannolikt att produktionen i Nigeria och Venezuela kan komma att öka så pass mycket att den kan ersätta utbudsstörningarna i Nigeria och Irak.

Analys

Crude oil comment: A price rise driven by fundamentals

Publicerat

den

SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crude prices have maintained their upward momentum, rebounding from last week’s low of USD 70.7 per barrel, spurred by relief over limited Israeli retaliation toward Iran, which left energy infrastructure (both oil and nuclear) undamaged. Since that point, as projected, prices have risen by USD 4.6 per barrel in just seven days.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

This momentum has been further fueled in the last two days by changes in market fundamentals. Reports confirming OPEC+ plans to delay its previously scheduled oil production increase, originally set for December, have contributed to the continued rise, pushing prices up to the current level of USD 75.2 per barrel.

Late last week, Brent prices were also influenced by Iranian rhetoric, with Iran pledging further retaliation. The latest WSJ report suggests that Iran may be planning a ”strong and complex” response against Israel, likely after the US election. The report also notes that Israel’s October 26 strike inflicted significant damage on Iran’s air defenses, heightening tensions. While the timing of any Iranian response remains speculative, further hostilities between Iran and Israel appear very predictable.

Despite looming geopolitical uncertainty and the potential for a heightened risk premium, the impact of current market fundamentals remains significant. To our surprise, OPEC+ has confirmed it will postpone its planned December production increase of 180,000 barrels per day.

However, this deferral doesn’t remove the target of adding a cumulative 2.2 million barrels by December 2025. OPEC+ will continue to monitor the market, increasing supply as soon as conditions favor it, which will likely keep substantial oil price gains in check over the coming year.

Fortsätt läsa

Analys

OPEC+ holds back on December increase while US produces more

Publicerat

den

SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

OPEC+ will not to lift production by 180 kb/d in December as planned. Of course an effort to prevent the oil price from sliding lower. US crude oil production is at the same time ticking up by 38 kb/d/month in September and the growth pace looks like it is ticking higher by the month as new US shale oil production is growing faster than losses in existing production. US crude oil reached a new, all-time high of 13.4 mb/d in August. The US is not making it easy for OPEC+. The group is trying to tell the US: ”Slow your growth, because we need to produce more!”. To no wain it looks. Iranian sabre-rattling helps to lift Brent this morning.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Brent crude fell 3.9% last week in a sense of eased Iranian-Israeli tensions. Brent crude traded in a range of USD 70.72 – 76.05/b last week and closed down 3.9% week on week on Friday at USD 73.1/b. The low point last week was driven by relief that the Israeli retaliation towards Iran looked fairly limited with no damage to either oil infrastructure or nuclear installations. Muted rhetoric from Iran Iran to start with also helped to drive the price to its low point last week. Iranian rhetoric with promises of re-retaliation increased through the week and the oil price rose along with that towards the end of the week. What is for sure is that there will be more rocket exchanges between Iran and Israel to come. That barrier is totally broken.

But tensions are rising again as Iranian re-retaliation is in the planning. News this morning (Wall Street Journal) is that Iran is planning a ’Strong and complex’ re-retaliation attack on Israel at some point after the US election. The article also states that the Israeli attack on Iran on 26 October severely damaged parts of Iran’s air defenses. This isn’t over.

OPEC+ holds back planned increase in December to avoid price declines. Brent rises 2% to USD 74.5/b this morning as OPEC+ decides to delay its planned increase of 180 kb/d in December. The planned increase of a total of 2.2 mb/d over a 12 month period has however not been called off. That still hangs over the market as a dark cloud. It tells the market that there is limited upside in the oil price in the year to come. Global demand acceleration in 2025 – OPEC+ will take that. Disruptions in supply in 2025 – OPEC+ will step in and take that. It is only a massive loss of supply involving the Strait of Hormuz which would be out of the hands of OPEC+ to cover.

US crude oil production at new all-time high in August of 13.4 mb/d. Not making it easy for OPEC+. US production reaches new all-time high in August at 13.4 mb/d. Monthly controlled data released in late October showed that US crude oil production increased by 195 kb/d to 13.4 mb/d and a new all-time high in August. US NGLs increase by 135 kb/d to 7.03 mb/d as well. If we add together US crude, NGLs, bio, refinery gains and adjustments, then total US liquids probably came in at 23.13 mb/d in August. With US liquids demand at 20.4 mb/d it leads to a net US liquids export of 2.7 mb/d

US shale oil production growth pace is ticking higher. US shale oil production grew at a marginal, annualized pace of 451 kb/d/month in September. The annualized growth pace was 401 kb/d in August. The pace is picking up. US shale oil producers are not making it easy for OPEC+.

US crude oil production reached a new all-time high in August at 13.4 mb/d. Production of NGLs also increased. US crude + NGLs + bio + refinery gains + adjustments puts US total liquids production at more than 23.1 mb/d in August.

US crude oil production reached a new all-time high in August
Source: Graph by SEB, data by US EIA

US shale oil production grew at a marginal, annualized pace of 451 kb/d in. The growth pace is picking up as new production grows faster than legacy losses. 

US shale oil production grew at a marginal
Source: SEB calculations and graph. Data by US EIA.
Fortsätt läsa

Analys

Brent rises on prospect of Middle East flare-up

Publicerat

den

SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crude prices have extended their recent rally, reaching USD 74.3 per barrel this morning, marking a gain of USD 1.25 per barrel since last evening.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Earlier in the week, signals pointed towards a potential de-escalation in Middle East tensions, with Israel reportedly considering a US-led initiative to address the conflict in Lebanon. However, as noted in yesterday’s crude oil comment, Israel’s military chief issued a strong warning, vowing a significant response should Iran attempt further aggression.

Fueling the recent surge in oil prices are reports from Axios (an American news outlet) suggesting that Iran is preparing to launch a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days. This heightens the likelihood of additional hostilities potentially erupting before the US election on November 5th.

According to the source, the anticipated attack would likely involve drones and ballistic missiles, with Iran potentially relying on allied militias in Iraq to carry it out. This approach may be a strategic effort by Tehran to avert a direct potential Israeli re-re-retaliation on Iranian soil.

While the situation in the Middle East could escalate sooner than expected, both Israel and Iran seem reluctant to ignite a full-scale regional war. Thus, any additional responses from Iran might remain restrained, similar to Israel’s limited strike last weekend, hence primarily intended as a demonstration of strength rather than an invitation to open warfare.

Fortsätt läsa

Centaur

Guldcentralen

Fokus

Annons

Gratis uppdateringar om råvarumarknaden

*

Populära