Analys
Brent Blend faller handlöst. Vart tar det stopp?
I den senaste analysen av Brent Blend den 8 maj var priset 113,16 USD/fat och vi konstaterade oljan låg i en fallande trend. Detta blev tydligt redan under våren där vi i början av april kunde se två på varandra fallande toppar. Den första på 128,40 USD/fat den 1 mars och den andra på 125,97 USD/fat den 3 april.
Vi ställde in siktet på en nedgång mot 106-110 USD/fat innan nya uppgångsförsök kunde komma på tal. Detta stödområde utgjorde bland annat av en stigande trendlinje med ursprung från år 2009 och detta borde därför hålla för ett test och ge en rekyl upp.
Men den tekniska analysen ger aldrig sanningen, utan prognoser. Och även om de till stor del är träffsäkra, finns det alltid utrymme för att saker i omvärlden ändrar det tänkta skeendet. Det är därför vi alltid jobbar med stopploss-nivåer, för att minimera förlusterna vid de få tillfällen som utvecklingen blir en annan än den tänkta. Som i detta fall…
För det tre år gamla stödet förmådde inte längre att hålla emot i nedgångarna. 106 USD/fat bröts och därmed var hoppet om uppgångar borta. Det var många som snabbt insåg detta. I mitten av maj bröts nämligen stödet (se dagsdiagrammet) och nedgången accelererade ytterligare. Så sent som igår, den 18 juni, fick vi en ny lågpunkt på 95,38 USD/fat.
Idag har vi ett blytungt motstånd på 111 USD/fat (se diagrammet) att bevaka för den långsiktiga utvecklingen. Med tiden kommer oljan givetvis att försöka knäcka detta motstånd, men vi kan lugnt räkna med att det kan bli en rejäl utmaning den dag som det är dags för uppgångar igen.
Som du också kan se i diagrammet, har nu oljan skapat en klassisk dubbeltopp med 127 USD i april 2011 och 128 USD i mars 2012. Detta efter en lång uppgång som startade redan på 38,10 i januari 2009. Efter genombrottet av 99 USD blev denna dubbeltopp bekräftad och ytterligare nedgångssignaler ett faktum.
Eftersom Brent Blend nu alltså befinner sig under 99 USD/fat, vilket var lågpunkterna under förra året, har vi fått ytterligare svaghetstecken. Ska vi tolka dessa signaler strikt, ska vi räkna med att oljan kan behöva besöka 70 USD/fat innan en mer stabil botten kan komma på plats. Vi får fram nivån genom utgå ifrån toppnivån vid 128 USD/fat och stödet vid 99 USD/fat. 128-99=29 USD, som vi sedan drar bort från 99 USD.
Givetvis kommer inte resan mot 70 USD/fat att bli spikrak. Men efter alla de nedgångssignaler som oljan givit oss de senaste två månaderna, kan vi inte blunda inför det vi ser nu, utan ställer in oss på fortsatta nedgångar.
Dock är våra veckoindikatorer mycket kraftigt nedpressade, vilket bör innebära att vi får se några veckor med uppgångar inom kort. Men det långsiktiga nedgångsmålet måste vi hålla kvar vid, så länge inte motståndet vid 111 USD/fat passeras, eller vi på något annat sätt får tecken på att oljan vänt uppåt igen.
Du kan handla OLJA med följande minifutures:
Uppgång MINILONG OLJA W med en hävstång kring 4,59
Nedgång: MINISHRT OLJA U1 med en hävstång kring 4,68
Läs mer om minifutures på RBS hemsida
[box]Denna analys publiceras på Råvarumarknaden.se med tillstånd och i samarbete med Axier Equities.[/box]
Ansvarsfriskrivning
Den tekniska analysen har producerats av Axier Equities. Informationen är rapporterad i god tro och speglar de aktuella åsikterna hos medarbetarna, dessa kan ändras utan varsel. Axier Equities tar inget ansvar för handlingar baserade på informationen.
Om Axier Equities
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Analys
Tightening fundamentals – bullish inventories from DOE

The latest weekly report from the US DOE showed a substantial drawdown across key petroleum categories, adding more upside potential to the fundamental picture.

Commercial crude inventories (excl. SPR) fell by 5.8 million barrels, bringing total inventories down to 415.1 million barrels. Now sitting 11% below the five-year seasonal norm and placed in the lowest 2015-2022 range (see picture below).
Product inventories also tightened further last week. Gasoline inventories declined by 2.1 million barrels, with reductions seen in both finished gasoline and blending components. Current gasoline levels are about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Among products, the most notable move came in diesel, where inventories dropped by almost 4.1 million barrels, deepening the deficit to around 20% below seasonal norms – continuing to underscore the persistent supply tightness in diesel markets.
The only area of inventory growth was in propane/propylene, which posted a significant 5.1-million-barrel build and now stands 9% above the five-year average.
Total commercial petroleum inventories (crude plus refined products) declined by 4.2 million barrels on the week, reinforcing the overall tightening of US crude and products.


Analys
Bombs to ”ceasefire” in hours – Brent below $70

A classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news” played out in oil markets, as Brent crude has dropped sharply – down nearly USD 10 per barrel since yesterday evening – following Iran’s retaliatory strike on a U.S. air base in Qatar. The immediate reaction was: “That was it?” The strike followed a carefully calibrated, non-escalatory playbook, avoiding direct threats to energy infrastructure or disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – thus calming worst-case fears.

After Monday morning’s sharp spike to USD 81.4 per barrel, triggered by the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, oil prices drifted sideways in anticipation of a potential Iranian response. That response came with advance warning and caused limited physical damage. Early this morning, both the U.S. President and Iranian state media announced a ceasefire, effectively placing a lid on the immediate conflict risk – at least for now.
As a result, Brent crude has now fallen by a total of USD 12 from Monday’s peak, currently trading around USD 69 per barrel.
Looking beyond geopolitics, the market will now shift its focus to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in early July. Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase output earlier this year – despite falling prices – has drawn renewed attention considering recent developments. Some suggest this was a response to U.S. pressure to offset potential Iranian supply losses.
However, consensus is that the move was driven more by internal OPEC+ dynamics. After years of curbing production to support prices, Riyadh had grown frustrated with quota-busting by several members (notably Kazakhstan). With Saudi Arabia cutting up to 2 million barrels per day – roughly 2% of global supply – returns were diminishing, and the risk of losing market share was rising. The production increase is widely seen as an effort to reassert leadership and restore discipline within the group.
That said, the FT recently stated that, the Saudis remain wary of past missteps. In 2018, Riyadh ramped up output at Trump’s request ahead of Iran sanctions, only to see prices collapse when the U.S. granted broad waivers – triggering oversupply. Officials have reportedly made it clear they don’t intend to repeat that mistake.
The recent visit by President Trump to Saudi Arabia, which included agreements on AI, defense, and nuclear cooperation, suggests a broader strategic alignment. This has fueled speculation about a quiet “pump-for-politics” deal behind recent production moves.
Looking ahead, oil prices have now retraced the entire rally sparked by the June 13 Israel–Iran escalation. This retreat provides more political and policy space for both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Specifically, it makes it easier for Riyadh to scale back its three recent production hikes of 411,000 barrels each, potentially returning to more moderate increases of 137,000 barrels for August and September.
In short: with no major loss of Iranian supply to the market, OPEC+ – led by Saudi Arabia – no longer needs to compensate for a disruption that hasn’t materialized, especially not to please the U.S. at the cost of its own market strategy. As the Saudis themselves have signaled, they are unlikely to repeat previous mistakes.
Conclusion: With Brent now in the high USD 60s, buying oil looks fundamentally justified. The geopolitical premium has deflated, but tensions between Israel and Iran remain unresolved – and the risk of missteps and renewed escalation still lingers. In fact, even this morning, reports have emerged of renewed missile fire despite the declared “truce.” The path forward may be calmer – but it is far from stable.
Analys
A muted price reaction. Market looks relaxed, but it is still on edge waiting for what Iran will do

Brent crossed the 80-line this morning but quickly fell back assigning limited probability for Iran choosing to close the Strait of Hormuz. Brent traded in a range of USD 70.56 – 79.04/b last week as the market fluctuated between ”Iran wants a deal” and ”US is about to attack Iran”. At the end of the week though, Donald Trump managed to convince markets (and probably also Iran) that he would make a decision within two weeks. I.e. no imminent attack. Previously when when he has talked about ”making a decision within two weeks” he has often ended up doing nothing in the end. The oil market relaxed as a result and the week ended at USD 77.01/b which is just USD 6/b above the year to date average of USD 71/b.

Brent jumped to USD 81.4/b this morning, the highest since mid-January, but then quickly fell back to a current price of USD 78.2/b which is only up 1.5% versus the close on Friday. As such the market is pricing a fairly low probability that Iran will actually close the Strait of Hormuz. Probably because it will hurt Iranian oil exports as well as the global oil market.
It was however all smoke and mirrors. Deception. The US attacked Iran on Saturday. The attack involved 125 warplanes, submarines and surface warships and 14 bunker buster bombs were dropped on Iranian nuclear sites including Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. In response the Iranian Parliament voted in support of closing the Strait of Hormuz where some 17 mb of crude and products is transported to the global market every day plus significant volumes of LNG. This is however merely an advise to the Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council which sits with the final and actual decision.
No supply of oil is lost yet. It is about the risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz or not. So far not a single drop of oil supply has been lost to the global market. The price at the moment is all about the assessed risk of loss of supply. Will Iran choose to choke of the Strait of Hormuz or not? That is the big question. It would be painful for US consumers, for Donald Trump’s voter base, for the global economy but also for Iran and its population which relies on oil exports and income from selling oil out of that Strait as well. As such it is not a no-brainer choice for Iran to close the Strait for oil exports. And looking at the il price this morning it is clear that the oil market doesn’t assign a very high probability of it happening. It is however probably well within the capability of Iran to close the Strait off with rockets, mines, air-drones and possibly sea-drones. Just look at how Ukraine has been able to control and damage the Russian Black Sea fleet.
What to do about the highly enriched uranium which has gone missing? While the US and Israel can celebrate their destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities they are also scratching their heads over what to do with the lost Iranian nuclear material. Iran had 408 kg of highly enriched uranium (IAEA). Almost weapons grade. Enough for some 10 nuclear warheads. It seems to have been transported out of Fordow before the attack this weekend.
The market is still on edge. USD 80-something/b seems sensible while we wait. The oil market reaction to this weekend’s events is very muted so far. The market is still on edge awaiting what Iran will do. Because Iran will do something. But what and when? An oil price of 80-something seems like a sensible level until something do happen.
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