Opec beslutade idag att för första gången på åtta år sänka produktionen frivilligt för att försöka höja priset. Gruppen sänker produktionen med 1,2 Mbpd och icke Opec-länder kommer bidra med ytterligare 0,6 Mbpd, varav Ryssland står för 0,3 Mbpd. Knäckfrågan verkar ha varit Irak och Iran som slutligen kom till förhandlingsbordet och gick med på Saudiarabiens inslagna väg för att stabilisera oljemarknaden. Iran får som enda medlem lov att öka produktionen och Ryssland anslöt sig till en sänkning trots att man tidigare enbart sträckt sig till att frysa produktionen.

Enkel plan

Planen ser ganska enkel ut i backspegeln. Opec vill att de globala lagernivåerna ska falla. Lägre lager betyder att mycket av den kraftiga lutningen I terminskurvan försvinner. Hittills har terminer med leverans i framtiden handlats md en kraftig premie gentemot spot. Den premien har varit en huvudvärk för Opec då den oproportionell gynnar USA:s skifferproducenter. Dessa har korta ledtider och en extremt kort återbetalningstid på nya produktionsprojekt. Därmed kan de utnyttja kortvariga prisuppgångar och säkra sin produktion med hjälp av den premium de får i terminsmarknaden. Opec vill helt enkelt stänga den dörren.

Detaljerna

Venezuela, Nigeria och Libyen tillåts stå utanför avtalet. Dessa länder kan alltså öka sin produktion efter bästa förmåga.

Iran får lov att öka sin produktion med 90 kbpd från september månads nivåer inom sex månader. Kan de inte öka omedelbart har de alltså den produktionen i ”reserv”.

Nästa möte hålls den 25e maj. Avtalet gäller fram till dess men med intentionen att förlängas ytterligare sex månader om det fungerat väl.

Indonesien fryser sitt medlemskap i Opec efter att landet svängt till att bli nettoimportör. Indonesien ingår i gruppens produktionsmål på 32,5 Mbpd men kommer inte delta i en produktionssänkning.

Skifferoljans respons

Även på andra sidan Atlanten är det Opec:s besked en stor nyhet. Nu återstår det att se hur skifferproducenterna kommer respondera om Opec lyckas hålla priserna på en högre nivå.

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