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Analys

SEB – Råvarukommentarer, 7 september 2012

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SEB Banken - Veckans råvarukommentarer - Prognoser

Sammanfattning av rekommendationer

Köp- och säljrekommendationer på råvaror

Även den här veckan har rekommendationerna varit vinstgivande.

Råolja – Brent

Uppgången in i motståndsområdet verkar ha kommit av sig, dock noteras även stöd i ett glidande 233-dagars genomsnittsband ($113.30 / 110.00), men skulle utbudet vara så stort att efterfrågan i detta området mättas så räknar vi med fall ner in i ett bredare ~$108 / 101 område. Nya toppar krävs nu för att minska den kortsiktiga nedåtrisken.

Framtida oljepris (brent) på kort sikt = köp bear-certifikat

Vi tycker att oljeprisuppgången som inleddes i början av juli gick väl snabbt och kanske även väl högt men noterar att så länge utbudsstörningarna kvarstår, så är utbuds- och efterfrågebalansen tight, varför det är rimligt med ett brentpris i rangen 100-115 usd/fat. Vid nuvarande prisnivå kring 113 usd rekommendera vi en kort position. Även vår tekniska analys stöder en kort position. Man väljer t ex BEAR OLJA X2 S eller BEAR OLJA X4 S – om man vill ha hög hävstång.

Elektricitet

Elterminerna på elbörsen har sedan förra veckans kortrekommendation fallit 2.8% . I allt väsentligt kvarstår argumenten för nedsidan och i vissa delar har de även stärkts.

Elektricitet - Eltermin har fallit i pris

Priset befinner sig en bit från tidigare bottnar, vilka med den nuvarande fundamentala situationen, bör vara inom räckhåll.

Höstvädret blir avgörande för elpriset framöver då fyllnadsgraden i vattenmagasinen fortsatt är på 5-års högsta. Den gångna veckans nederbördsutfall har varit rikligt och prognoserna, vilka nu är starkt influerade av resterna av de stormsystem som tidigare svept in över USA:s syd- och östkust, visar på mycket stora mängder regn. Produktion i de svenska kärnkraftverken är på uppgång och på sina håll i södra Norge är det troligt att vattenkraftproducenter den närmaste tiden t o m tvingas ”spilla” vatten förbi turbinerna.

Vår syn på priset (lägre) på fossila bränslen som kol och naturgas är också oförändrad. Såvida inte vädersituationen ändras väsentligt inom den närmaste tiden tror vi därför att kontraktet som är underliggande för våra certifikat på el har fortsatt nedsida, varför kortrekommendationen kvarstår.

Guld, Silver och Platina

Ädelmetallerna går väldigt starkt och är tydligaste indikationen på marknadens förväntningar om stimulanspaket under hösten. Silver är vinnaren med en uppgång med 7 % sedan förra fredagen. Guld har stigit 3% medan Platina är upp 5 %. Trenderna är starka och stöds både av stimulansförväntningar och positiva tekniska signaler. Vi tror att komplexet har mer att ge. Ur ett kortsiktigt tekniskt perspektiv finns utrymme upp till $1800 (nu 1705) för guld, $ 35 (nu 32,60) för silver och $1700 (nu 1582) för Platina.

Spotpriset på guld - Diagram med graf över utvecklingen

Vår favorit är Platina (t ex genom certifikatet PLATINA S, eller för den som vill ha lite mer hävstång, BULL PLATIN X4 S). Nedan ser vi platinaprisets utveckling, där brottet av den långsiktiga motståndslinjen, signalerar att den långa konsolideringsperioden är bruten, på uppsidan!

Pris på platina - Utveckling år 2011 och 2012 - Bull-prognos

Nedan ser vi silverprisets kursutveckling. Det är samma starka tekniska köpsignal i den här metallen.

Diagram med utveckling på silverkursen år 2011 och 2012

Koppar

Bernanke’s tal förra veckan gav inte några nya indikationer. De penningpolitiska stimulanserna kanske dröjer någon månad till. Blickarna vändes istället mot ECB:s räntebesked idag torsdag. Draghi bekräftade obligationsköp. Det var det som marknaden ville höra och priserna steg. Basmetaller har gått starkt i veckan och är upp mellan 2 och 3 %. Veckan inleddes annars med Kinas index är nu under den psykologiska 50-nivån. Negativa siffror således och basmetaller brukar följa ISM, men inte nu paradoxalt nog. Aktörerna väljer att se dem som en bekräftelse att Kina måste göra någonting. Frågan är bara vad och hur mycket.

Kopparpriset är nu tillbaka i den övre delen av trading-intervallet. Antalet utestående terminskontrakt på LME är fortfarande ovanligt lågt, den lägsta nivå sen i början av 2009. Det visar hur osäkra aktörerna är. De vill inte ta några stora positioner just nu. Så länge vi är kvar i intervallet erbjuds intressanta tradingmöjligheter, mellan $7300 och $7700, men med viss försiktighet när marknaden når brytpunkterna.

Kopparpriset förväntas stiga enligt prognosen

Vi väljer att fortsätta rekommendera köp av KOPPAR S.

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Kaffe

Priset på Arabica, som handlas i New York, har fortsatt att falla i pris och vi undrar om inte utbrottet från trendlinjen var falskt. Skörden av Robusta i Vietnam har drabbats av torka. Det huvudsakliga odlingsområdet Dak Lak har fått 4.6 mm regn de senaste tio dagarna mot 22 normalt och förra året. Robusta-lagren i London har fallit med 65% sedan toppen i juli. Enligt en survey gjord av Bloomberg kan skörden minska med 10% från förra året. Coffee Network, en del av FC Stone, råvaruhandlaren, förutspår att utbudet bara överträffar efterfrågan med 500,000 säckar nästa år. En säck grönt kaffe väger 60 kilo.

Kaffepriset etablerar en botten

Det är möjligt att kaffepriset håller på att etablera en botten med 1.50 dollar som stödnivå. Man bör kunna bottenfiska KAFFE S på de här nivåerna och sedan vänta in prisuppgångar i framtiden.

Socker

Priset på socker har studsat upp från strax under 20 cent och ligger nu på nästan exakt 20 cent. Trenden är ner, men trenden är också gammal.

Graf över utveckling på sockerpris

Kakao

Vi skrev förra veckan att vi skulle vilja vara långa kakao om nivån 2500 dollar bröts. Den bröts i veckan och vi är därför långa KAKAO S. Västafrika har drabbats av torka. De kommande 30 dagarnas väder blir avgörande för skörden i Elfenbenskusten, som tävlar med Ghana om att vara världens största producenter.

Prognosen är stigande pris på kakao

För spannmål och övriga jordbruksprodukter hänvisas till gårdagens nyhetsbrev.

[box]SEB Veckobrev Veckans råvarukommentar är producerat av SEB Merchant Banking och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]

Disclaimer

The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”).

Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.

About SEB

SEB is a public company incorporated in Stockholm, Sweden, with limited liability. It is a participant at major Nordic and other European Regulated Markets and Multilateral Trading Facilities (as well as some non-European equivalent markets) for trading in financial instruments, such as markets operated by NASDAQ OMX, NYSE Euronext, London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Börse, Swiss Exchanges, Turquoise and Chi-X. SEB is authorized and regulated by Finansinspektionen in Sweden; it is authorized and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK, and is subject to the provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where SEB conducts operations. SEB Merchant Banking. All rights reserved.

Analys

OPEC+ will likely unwind 500 kb/d of voluntary quotas in October. But a full unwind of 1.5 mb/d in one go could be in the cards

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Down to mid-60ies as Iraq lifts production while Saudi may be tired of voluntary cut frugality. The Brent December contract dropped 1.6% yesterday to USD 66.03/b. This morning it is down another 0.3% to USD 65.8/b. The drop in the price came on the back of the combined news that Iraq has resumed 190 kb/d of production in Kurdistan with exports through Turkey while OPEC+ delegates send signals that the group will unwind the remaining 1.65 mb/d (less the 137 kb/d in October) of voluntary cuts at a pace of 500 kb/d per month pace.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Signals of accelerated unwind and Iraqi increase may be connected. Russia, Kazakhstan and Iraq were main offenders versus the voluntary quotas they had agreed to follow. Russia had a production ’debt’ (cumulative overproduction versus quota) of close to 90 mb in March this year while Kazakhstan had a ’debt’ of about 60 mb and the same for Iraq. This apparently made Saudi Arabia angry this spring. Why should Saudi Arabia hold back if the other voluntary cutters were just freeriding? Thus the sudden rapid unwinding of voluntary cuts. That is at least one angle of explanations for the accelerated unwinding.

If the offenders with production debts then refrained from lifting production as the voluntary cuts were rapidly unwinded, then they could ’pay back’ their ’debts’ as they would under-produce versus the new and steadily higher quotas.

Forget about Kazakhstan. Its production was just too far above the quotas with no hope that the country would hold back production due to cross-ownership of oil assets by international oil companies. But Russia and Iraq should be able to do it.

Iraqi cumulative overproduction versus quotas could reach 85-90 mb in October. Iraq has however steadily continued to overproduce by 3-5 mb per month. In July its new and gradually higher quota came close to equal with a cumulative overproduction of only 0.6 mb that month. In August again however its production had an overshoot of 100 kb/d or 3.1 mb for the month. Its cumulative production debt had then risen to close to 80 mb. We don’t know for September yet. But looking at October we now know that its production will likely average close to 4.5 mb/d due to the revival of 190 kb/d of production in Kurdistan. Its quota however will only be 4.24 mb/d. Its overproduction in October will thus likely be around 250 kb/d above its quota  with its production debt rising another 7-8 mb to a total of close to 90 mb.

Again, why should Saudi Arabia be frugal while Iraq is freeriding. Better to get rid of the voluntary quotas as quickly as possible and then start all over with clean sheets.

Unwinding the remaining 1.513 mb/d in one go in October? If OPEC+ unwinds the remaining 1.513 mb/d of voluntary cuts in one big go in October, then Iraq’s quota will be around 4.4 mb/d for October versus its likely production of close to 4.5 mb/d for the coming month..

OPEC+ should thus unwind the remaining 1.513 mb/d (1.65 – 0.137 mb/d) in one go for October in order for the quota of Iraq to be able to keep track with Iraq’s actual production increase.

October 5 will show how it plays out. But a quota unwind of at least 500 kb/d for Oct seems likely. An overall increase of at least 500 kb/d in the voluntary quota for October looks likely. But it could be the whole 1.513 mb/d in one go. If the increase in the quota is ’only’ 500 kb/d then Iraqi cumulative production will still rise by 5.7 mb to a total of 85 mb in October.

Iraqi production debt versus quotas will likely rise by 5.7 mb in October if OPEC+ only lifts the overall quota by 500 kb/d in October. Here assuming historical production debt did not rise in September. That Iraq lifts its production by 190 kb/d in October to 4.47 mb/d (August level + 190 kb/d) and that OPEC+ unwinds 500 kb/d of the remining quotas in October when they decide on this on 5 October.

Iraqi production debt versus quotas
Source: SEB calculations, assumptions and graph, Bloomberg actual production data to August
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Analys

Modest draws, flat demand, and diesel back in focus

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

U.S. commercial crude inventories posted a marginal draw last week, falling by 0.6 million barrels to 414.8 million barrels. Inventories remain 4% below the five-year seasonal average, but the draw is far smaller than last week’s massive 9.3-million-barrel decline. Higher crude imports (+803,000 bl d WoW) and steady refinery runs (93% utilization) helped keep the crude balance relatively neutral.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Yet another drawdown indicates commercial crude inventories continue to trend below the 2015–2022 seasonal norm (~440 million barrels), though at 414.8 million barrels, levels are now almost exactly in line with both the 2023 and 2024 trajectory, suggesting stable YoY conditions (see page 3 attached).

Gasoline inventories dropped by 1.1 million barrels and are now 2% below the five-year average. The decline was broad-based, with both finished gasoline and blending components falling, indicating lower output and resilient end-user demand as we enter the shoulder season post-summer (see page 6 attached).

On the diesel side, distillate inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels, snapping a two-week streak of strong builds. At 125 million barrels, diesel inventories are once again 8% below the five-year average and trending near the low end of the historical range.

In total, commercial petroleum inventories (excl. SPR) slipped by 0.5 million barrels on the week to ish 1,281.5 million barrels. While essentially flat, this ends a two-week streak of meaningful builds, reflecting a return to a slightly tighter situation.

On the demand side, the DOE’s ‘products supplied’ metric (see page 6 attached), a proxy for implied consumption, softened slightly. Total demand for crude oil over the past four weeks averaged 20.5 million barrels per day, up just 0.9% YoY.

Summing up: This week’s report shows a re-tightening in diesel supply and modest draws across the board, while demand growth is beginning to flatten. Inventories remain structurally low, but the tone is less bullish than in recent weeks.

US DOE oil inventories
US crude inventories
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Analys

Are Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure working?

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crude rose 1.6% yesterday. After trading in a range of USD 66.1 – 68.09/b it settled at USD 67.63/b. A level which we are well accustomed to see Brent crude flipping around since late August. This morning it is trading 0.5% higher at USD 68/b. The market was expecting an increase of 230 kb/d in Iraqi crude exports from Kurdistan through Turkey to the Cheyhan port but that has so far failed to materialize. This probably helped to drive Brent crude higher yesterday. Indications last evening that US crude oil inventories likely fell 3.8 mb last week (indicative numbers by API) probably also added some strength to Brent crude late in the session. The market continues to await the much heralded global surplus materializing as rising crude and product inventories in OECD countries in general and the US specifically.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

The oil market is starting to focus increasingly on the successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Especially the attacks on Russian refineries. Refineries are highly complex and much harder to repair than simple crude oil facilities like export pipelines, ports and hubs. It can take months and months to repair complex refineries. It is thus mainly Russian oil products which will be hurt by this. First oil product exports will go down, thereafter Russia will have to ration oil product consumption domestically. Russian crude exports may not be hurt as much. Its crude exports could actually go up as its capacity to process crude goes down. SEB’s Emerging Market strategist Erik Meyersson wrote about the Ukrainian campaign this morning: ”Are Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure working?”. Phillips P O’Brian published an interesting not on this as well yesterday: ”An Update On The Ukrainian Campaign Against Russian Refineries”. It is a pay-for article, but it is well worth reading. Amongst other things it highlights the strategic focus of Ukraine towards Russia’s energy infrastructure. A Ukrainian on the matter also put out a visual representation of the attacks on twitter. We have not verified the data representation. It needs to be interpreted with caution in terms of magnitude of impact and current outage.

Complex Russian oil refineries are sitting ducks in the new, modern long-range drone war. Ukraine is building a range of new weapons as well according to O’Brian. The problem with attacks on Russian refineries is thus on the rise. This will likely be an escalating problem for Russia. And oil products around the world may rise versus the crude oil price while the crude oil price itself may not rise all that much due to this.

Russian clean oil product exports as presented by SEB’s Erik Meyersson in his note this morning.

Russian clean oil product exports
Source: SEB, Kepler, Macrobond

The ICE Gasoil crack and the 3.5% fuel oil crack has been strengthening. The 3.5% crack should have weakened along with rising exports of sour crude from OPEC+, but it hasn’t. Rather it has moved higher instead. The higher cracks could in part be due to the Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries.

The ICE Gasoil crack and the 3.5% fuel oil crack has been strengthening. The 3.5% crack should have weakened along with rising exports of sour crude from OPEC+, but it hasn't. Rather it has moved higher instead. The higher cracks could in part be due to the Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries.
Source: SEB graph and calculations, Bloomberg data

Ukrainian inhabitants graphical representation of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries on Twitter. Highlighting date of attacks, size of refineries and distance from Ukraine. We have not verified the detailed information. And you cannot derive the amount of outage as a consequence of this.

Ukrainian inhabitants graphical representation of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries on Twitter.
Source: Twitter. Not verified
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