Följ oss

Nyheter

David Hargreaves on Precious Metals, week 5 2014

Publicerat

den

Gold bar, in no shortage at Comex

Gold tries and fails to break out upwards – RSA’s platinum looks bloody, but who cares? Silver remains the lame dog whilst the dollar sails on.

Platinum. The world auto industry is burgeoning. It takes over half of all PGMs in exhaust catalysts and over half of all that comes from South Africa. That country’s platinum mining sector has been tearing itself apart for over a year in a war which shows no sign of abating. So the platinum price should be sky high, eh? It is not. The mining companies are calling the bluff of the unions, the gold price is under pressure and the Pt/Au ratio, which has been at a premium for over a year, is on the slide. The mining companies saw this one coming. The big producers have stockpiles that should see them comfortably through an 8-week strike, by which time the union lads will either have acquiesced or resorted to violence. Have you noticed how they turn up ever carrying long sticks? Now the NUM has mostly settled, but newcomer AMCU is holding out. Everything to lose springs to mind. Settlements are up to 9% per year (plus benefits), guaranteed for three years.

WIM says: Here is a bit of arithmetic for the unions:

Annons

Gratis uppdateringar om råvarumarknaden

*

9% per year for 3 years is 1.295 x now.

In a labour intensive industry such as this, labour costs are up to 40% of total.

Wages come out of sales revenues. In most mines, total costs are pushing $1000/oz.

Annons

Gratis uppdateringar om råvarumarknaden

*

So labour = 40% x 1000 = $400/oz. If it rises by 1.295x in three years, that equates to $518/oz, an increase of $118.oz.

Most forecasters now see gold heading to $1000/oz and the Pt/Au premium going to level. Thus platinum at $1000/oz, too. Wages would thus be 518/1000=52% of total cost. Not tenable chaps. Heads will roll. Yours.

Gold. As long as the US Fed QE programme continues to shed $10 bn per month, we must not expect fireworks from the gold price. Particularly as the successor to Chairman B Bernanke has promised more of the same. 2013 output. GFMS tells us newly mined gold output worldwide in 2013 was 2982t, up 4% on 2012. This ties in with the trend of highgrading as the price fell. This is a relatively short-term expedient so unless some of the major pipeline projects see production, output will be under pressure.

Annons

Gratis uppdateringar om råvarumarknaden

*

WIM says: We are unlikely to see much change from the c.3000tpa newly mined figure in the near future. So it is to demand we look. As we note below, currencies are not playing a strong part in gold buying patterns with China and India to the fore. We learn (thanks Mineweb) that Chinese imports via Hong Kong were 1139t net in 2013, about 40% of newly mined total, but it was probably not all newly mined. It was a record tonnage. But China also imports from non-Hong Kong sources. Then add China’s domestically mined supplies of over 400t and we see the growing impact of that country. Add India’s import demand – good for at least 1000t despite the government clampdown – and we have to look at scrap recycling and de-stocking to balance the books. Now is India having second thoughts about the impact of gold imports on its balance of payments deficit? The government considers a 2% cut in the recently hiked levy of 10% as it sees the domestic jewellery industry (and thus exports) suffer. Credit Suisse has now joined the bottom-side $1000/oz lobby to which WIM subscribes, ventilating the usual reasons.

The argument continues as to whether people buy more gold, or indeed any commodity, in a rising or a falling market.

The comfort of a rising price is that you have possibly seen the bottom. Tied in with the emerging nations exchange rate crises we show here how various countries would have fared, buying an ounce of gold in their own currency, over the past year. Between January 2013 and 2014, the value of gold in US dollars fell c.25% from $1660 to $1250. Had you bought gold domestically at the start of that period and sold it at the end, here would have been the result:

Annons

Gratis uppdateringar om råvarumarknaden

*

Argentina -20%, South Africa +7%, Australia +10%, Japan +12%, Brazil +13%, India +16%, Peru +18%, Chile +12%, Canada +16%, UK +26%, EU +27%, China +27%.

Newmont (NEM.N $21.6; Hi-Lo $45.81-21.27) the third largest producer, did 5.1Moz in 2013, the top end of its forecast, plus 17,000t copper. It expects to maintain this in 2014. It also expects all-in sustaining costs of $1075- 1175/oz gold, a but close to the bone we feel.

Endeavour Mines (EDV.TSX A$0.67) operating four mines in four countries in West Africa, did a record 324,275 oz in 2013, but looks for a 35% uplift to 400,000-440,000 oz this year. It looks at all-in sustaining costs of c.$900/oz in 2014.

Annons

Gratis uppdateringar om råvarumarknaden

*

Worth its weight in gold?

[hr]

About David Hargreaves

David Hargreaves

David Hargreaves

David Hargreaves is a mining engineer with over forty years of senior experience in the industry. After qualifying in coal mining he worked in the iron ore mines of Quebec and Northwest Ontario before diversifying into other bulk minerals including bauxite. He was Head of Research for stockbrokers James Capel in London from 1974 to 1977 and voted Mining Analyst of the year on three successive occasions.

Since forming his own metals broking and research company in 1977, he has successfully promoted and been a director of several public companies. He currently writes “The Week in Mining”, an incisive review of world mining events, for stockbrokers WH Ireland. David’s research pays particular attention to steel via the iron ore and coal supply industries. He is a Chartered Mining Engineer, Fellow of the Geological Society and the Institute of Mining, Minerals and Materials, and a Member of the Royal Institution. His textbook, “The World Index of Resources and Population” accurately predicted the exponential rise in demand for steel industry products.

Annons

Gratis uppdateringar om råvarumarknaden

*
Fortsätt läsa
Annons Centaur
Klicka för att kommentera

Skriv ett svar

Din e-postadress kommer inte publiceras. Obligatoriska fält är märkta *

Nyheter

Vetepriset kommer att gå upp – hur man än vrider och vänder på det

Publicerat

den

Vete i närbild

Priset på vete har halverats på två, samtidigt sjunker vetelagren. Torbjörn Iwarson på Centaur Commodity Fund säger i DiTV att priset måste upp för att motivera bönder att odla mer. Han konstaterar att hur man än vrider och vänder på det så måste priset gå upp för världen kan inte vara utan vete.

Torbjörn Iwarson kommenterar vete och apelsinjuice.
Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

Bra start för Centaur Commodity Fund

Publicerat

den

Tre olika råvaror

Centaur Commodity Fund är den nya råvarufonden i Sverige som förvaltas av den erfarna råvaruprofilen Torbjörn Iwarson. Fonden har en bred exponering mot råvarumarknaden och mäter sig mot det etablerade indexet Bloomberg Commodity Ex Energy Total Return Index.

Fonden har fått en bra start och presterade bäst jämfört med sina närmaste konkurrenter. Förvaltaren skriver på LinkedIn med glimten i ögat ”Nybörjartur med råvarufonden.” En fond ska självklart utvärderas över längre tid, inte en enskild månad, men det måste ändå vara trevligt att börja med att vara bäst.

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

Vinregionen Champagne drabbad av hagelstorm

Publicerat

den

Hagelskadad vinodling i Champagne

Den 12 maj bröt våldsamma hagelstormar ut i vid Champagnes vingårdar i Frankrike. Särskilt drabbat är området Vitry-le François där odlare har fått mellan 50-100 procent av sina odlingar förstörda.

Vingårdarna i södra Aisne hade 70-100 mm regn och stora översvämningar.  Svåra hagelskador drabbade regionerna Courcelles, Barzy-sur-Marne, Passy-sur-Marne och Trélou-sur-Marne som hade hagelstormar som varade i hela 45 minuter.

– Det är väldigt ovanligt att en enda storm drabbar ett sådant stort område. Detta är givetvis en stor katastrof för odlarnas ekonomi, deras familjer och anställda.  För odlare som säljer sin skörd är detta ofta den enda inkomstkällan. Medan odlare och producenter som skapar sin egen champagne oftast kan fylla ut med reserv-vin som man sparar tillbaka från bättre skördeår, säger Fredrik Schelin, vinexpert i Sverige.

Annons

Gratis uppdateringar om råvarumarknaden

*

– Vi har inget hagel just nu men vi har det besvärligt med vädret just nu. Massor av regn, och möglet har redan satt sina spår. Det är svårt för oss att arbeta med jorden, men förhoppningsvis blir det bättre till sommaren, säger Jean-Paul Hébrart, Champagne Marc Hébrart – Mareuil sur AŸ.

Det är svårt att bedöma de övergripande skadorna av stormen. Mellan 450-500 hektar vinstockar, det vill säga ca 1,4 procent av hela Champagnes vinodlingar har drabbats i varierande grad, från 50 till 100%. Fram till skörden är Champagne-regionen fortsatt utsatt för risk för hagel och storm.

Isabelle Diebolt från Champagne Diebolt-Vallois – Cramant rapporterar:
– Vi har inget hagel, men oändligt mycket regn, så det är svårt att odla och jobba med vin just nu.

Annons

Gratis uppdateringar om råvarumarknaden

*
Fortsätt läsa

Centaur

Guldcentralen

Fokus

Annons

Gratis uppdateringar om råvarumarknaden

*

Populära