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US crude oil production, only a lower price can slow it down

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8 år sedan

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9 mars, 2017

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Price action – Long positions taking a hit – Pain trade to the down side

The front month Brent crude contract sold off 5% yesterday with a clos at $53.11/b. This was the lowest close for front month Brent since early December 2016 and clearly a break out of the close, sideways trend around $55/b which has been in place since OPEC decided to cut production in late November. Technically the Brent crude May 17 contract broke the important support level of $54.64/b. The next support level for the contract is $52.86/b and that has already been broken in today’s trading with Brent crude now trading at $52.3/b. Net long speculative positions are close to record high so if the bearish sentiment continues then oil prices are naturally and clearly vulnerable to the downside. That is where the pain-trade is.

It is worth mentioning that in a week on week perspective there has been a broad based sell-off in commodities in general with all sub-indices selling off between 2.6% and 4.4% and the total commodity index down 3.5%. In a week on week perspective Brent sold off 5.8% so a little more than the total energy index which sold off 3.9%. Still, oil was not alone in the sell-off. I.e. It was not just oil specific reasons for why oil sold off over the last week even though the sell-off came yesterday. In the background for all assets is the market concern for higher US interest rates which is hurting bonds, equities as well as commodities. Gold which is definitely sensitive to higher interest rates sold off 3.3% over the past week. The bullish US employment statistics yesterday probably helped to underpin the expectation for higher US rates.

Longer dated crude oil contracts also sold off yesterday with the Brent crude December 2020 contract closing yesterday at $53.74/b which is a new fresh low since April 2016. As stated earlier we expect this contract to trade yet lower down towards the $50/b mark in a pure neccessity to lower the implied shale oil profitability offered US shale oil players on a forward crude oil price curve. More than anything it is the one to three year forward contracts which needs to move lower in order to stemm the current strong rise in shale oil rigs and shale oil investments. Since OPEC decided to cut production in late November 2017 US shale oil players have been offered a nice profitable lunch on in the forward market basis.

Crude oil comment – US crude oil production, only a lower price can slow it down

The consequence of the increase in US oil rigs since the mid-May last year has now become alarmingly visible in US crude oil production. US crude oil production is growing. And it is growing strongly. That was one of the key bearish statistics in the US EIA’s data release yesterday. US crude oil production rose by 56 kb/d w/w to 9.088 mb/d. Sounds like little in the big picture but multiply by 52 weeks (if it is a steady trend rather than weekly noise) and you get a marginal, annualized US crude oil production growth rate of 2.9 mb/d. Since the start of 2017 the average US crude oil production growth has been +35 kb/d w/w. That equates to a marginal, annualized growth rate of 1.8 mb/d. We are in general very bullish US shale oil production growth. However, we had not expecte to see this level of growth rate before in September 2017.

There is only one way to slow down the US crude oil production growth and that is a lower oil price. Thus beside an overall bearish sell-off in commodities in general, the oil price is pushing lower. A marginal, annualized US crude oil production growth rate of 1.8 mb/d which we now have seen since the start of the year is too much, too early. The shale oil veteran Harrold Hamm this week said at the Cera Week in Houston that the current investment binge in US shale oil production will kill the oil market unless it is tempered. Pioneer’s Scott Sheffield was out earlier in the week stating that US Permian crude oil production could rise to 8-10 mb/d in 10 years time and thus surpas Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar field (biggest in the world today). He also said that the WTI crude oil price would fall to $40/b if OPEC doesn’t carry over its production cuts into H2-17. On top of this the US EIA revised its US crude oil production projections significantly higher yet again. We still think they are way behind the curve when they predict US crude oil production at 9.73 mb/d on average in 2018 versus our projection of 10.76 mb/d for that year. We thus think that the US EIA will revise higher its projections for US crude oil 2018 production projection again and again in 2017.

If US crude oil production continues to grow at the pace we have seen since the start of the year, then it will pass its past peak of 9.61 mb/d (which was reached in June 2015) by mid-June 2017. That is not our projection, just a pure mathematical extrapolation.

Shale oil service costs, labour costs and material costs are tellingly definitely on the rise. This could definitely slow down weekly rig count additions if the cost side starts to bit significantly. In that case the oil price would not need to move all that much lower in order to slow down rig count additions. However, we have not seen that effect yet. Normally there is a time lag of 6-8 weeks from the oil price moves to when we see a reduction or increase in the weekly US shale oil rig count numbers. As such even if the oil price now continues yet lower we are likely to see that the US shale oil rig count increases by 9-10 rigs every week the next 6-8 weeks.

We still think that oil inventories will fall in Q2-17 and as such give support to prices. Our expectations is to see the highest Brent crude oil price to be printed in Q2-17. However, US crude oil prodution is now growing so strongly that market focus is shifting away from OPEC cuts and over to US production growth. We had not expected this to happen before in late Q2-17.

Then we are left with the question – What will OPEC do in the face of strongly rising US crude oil production? The can decide to cut also in H2-17, but does it make sense? We think not. US shale oil production response is too fast and too flexible.

Ch1: Brent crude front month contract – Breaking the sideways trend. Back to pre-OPEC-cut-decission?

Ch2: US crude oil production rising strongly – too strongly. Now just 0.5 mb/d below prior peak
If it continues at this pace then US crude production will pass the 9.6 mb/d mark in June 2017

Ch3: Brent crude oil 1mth contract adjusted for US dollar strength since July 2013.
For all those longing for a Brent crude oil price of $60/b it is worth remembering that
if we adjust for the 23% stronger USD since July 2013 a Brent price today of only $51/b actually equals $63.6/b in 2013 USD terms.
In that perspective we are already “back above $60/b”. Acutally we were close to $70/b in 2013 dollar terms when Brent averaged $55/b so far this year.

Annons

Kind regards

Bjarne Schieldrop
Chief analyst, Commodities
SEB Markets
Merchant Banking

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Analys

Breaking some eggs in US shale

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5 dagar sedan

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5 augusti, 2025

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Lower as OPEC+ keeps fast-tracking redeployment of previous cuts. Brent closed down 1.3% yesterday to USD 68.76/b on the back of the news over the weekend that OPEC+ (V8) lifted its quota by 547 kb/d for September. Intraday it traded to a low of USD 68.0/b but then pushed higher as Trump threatened to slap sanctions on India if it continues to buy loads of Russian oil. An effort by Donald Trump to force Putin to a truce in Ukraine. This morning it is trading down 0.6% at USD 68.3/b which is just USD 1.3/b below its July average.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Only US shale can hand back the market share which OPEC+ is after. The overall picture in the oil market today and the coming 18 months is that OPEC+ is in the process of taking back market share which it lost over the past years in exchange for higher prices. There is only one source of oil supply which has sufficient reactivity and that is US shale. Average liquids production in the US is set to average 23.1 mb/d in 2025 which is up a whooping 3.4 mb/d since 2021 while it is only up 280 kb/d versus 2024.

Taking back market share is usually a messy business involving a deep trough in prices and significant economic pain for the involved parties. The original plan of OPEC+ (V8) was to tip-toe the 2.2 mb/d cuts gradually back into the market over the course to December 2026. Hoping that robust demand growth and slower non-OPEC+ supply growth would make room for the re-deployment without pushing oil prices down too much.

From tip-toing to fast-tracking. Though still not full aggression. US trade war, weaker global growth outlook and Trump insisting on a lower oil price, and persistent robust non-OPEC+ supply growth changed their minds. Now it is much more fast-track with the re-deployment of the 2.2 mb/d done already by September this year. Though with some adjustments. Lifting quotas is not immediately the same as lifting production as Russia and Iraq first have to pay down their production debt. The OPEC+ organization is also holding the door open for production cuts if need be. And the group is not blasting the market with oil. So far it has all been very orderly with limited impact on prices. Despite the fast-tracking.

The overall process is nonetheless still to take back market share. And that won’t be without pain. The good news for OPEC+ is of course that US shale now is cooling down when WTI is south of USD 65/b rather than heating up when WTI is north of USD 45/b as was the case before.

OPEC+ will have to break some eggs in the US shale oil patches to take back lost market share. The process is already in play. Global oil inventories have been building and they will build more and the oil price will be pushed lower.

A Brent average of USD 60/b in 2026 implies a low of the year of USD 45-47.5/b. Assume that an average Brent crude oil price of USD 60/b and an average WTI price of USD 57.5/b in 2026 is sufficient to drive US oil rig count down by another 100 rigs and US crude production down by 1.5 mb/d from Dec-25 to Dec-26. A Brent crude average of USD 60/b sounds like a nice price. Do remember though that over the course of a year Brent crude fluctuates +/- USD 10-15/b around the average. So if USD 60/b is the average price, then the low of the year is in the mid to the high USD 40ies/b.

US shale oil producers are likely bracing themselves for what’s in store. US shale oil producers are aware of what is in store. They can see that inventories are rising and they have been cutting rigs and drilling activity since mid-April. But significantly more is needed over the coming 18 months or so. The faster they cut the better off they will be. Cutting 5 drilling rigs per week to the end of the year, an additional total of 100 rigs, will likely drive US crude oil production down by 1.5 mb/d from Dec-25 to Dec-26 and come a long way of handing back the market share OPEC+ is after.

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More from OPEC+ means US shale has to gradually back off further

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6 dagar sedan

den

4 augusti, 2025

Redaktionen

The OPEC+ subgroup V8 this weekend decided to fully unwind their voluntary cut of 2.2 mb/d. The September quota hike was set at 547 kb/d thereby unwinding the full 2.2 mb/d. This still leaves another layer of voluntary cuts of 1.6 mb/d which is likely to be unwind at some point.

Higher quotas however do not immediately translate to equally higher production. This because Russia and Iraq have ”production debts” of cumulative over-production which they need to pay back by holding production below the agreed quotas. I.e. they cannot (should not) lift production before Jan (Russia) and March (Iraq) next year.

Argus estimates that global oil stocks have increased by 180 mb so far this year but with large skews. Strong build in Asia while Europe and the US still have low inventories. US Gulf stocks are at the lowest level in 35 years. This strong skew is likely due to political sanctions towards Russian and Iranian oil exports and the shadow fleet used to export their oil. These sanctions naturally drive their oil exports to Asia and non-OECD countries. That is where the surplus over the past half year has been going and where inventories have been building. An area which has a much more opaque oil market. Relatively low visibility with respect to oil inventories and thus weaker price signals from inventory dynamics there.

This has helped shield Brent and WTI crude oil price benchmarks to some degree from the running, global surplus over the past half year. Brent crude averaged USD 73/b in December 2024 and at current USD 69.7/b it is not all that much lower today despite an estimated global stock build of 180 mb since the end of last year and a highly anticipated equally large stock build for the rest of the year.

What helps to blur the message from OPEC+ in its current process of unwinding cuts and taking back market share, is that, while lifting quotas, it is at the same time also quite explicit that this is not a one way street. That it may turn around make new cuts if need be.

This is very different from its previous efforts to take back market share from US shale oil producers. In its previous efforts it typically tried to shock US shale oil producers out of the market. But they came back very, very quickly.

When OPEC+ now is taking back market share from US shale oil it is more like it is exerting a continuous, gradually increasing pressure towards US shale oil rather than trying to shock it out of the market which it tried before. OPEC+ is now forcing US shale oil producers to gradually back off. US oil drilling rig count is down from 480 in Q1-25 to now 410 last week and it is typically falling by some 4-5 rigs per week currently. This has happened at an average WTI price of about USD 65/b. This is very different from earlier when US shale oil activity exploded when WTI went north of USD 45/b. This helps to give OPEC+ a lot of confidence.

Global oil inventories are set to rise further in H2-25 and crude oil prices will likely be forced lower though the global skew in terms of where inventories are building is muddying the picture. US shale oil activity will likely decline further in H2-25 as well with rig count down maybe another 100 rigs. Thus making room for more oil from OPEC+.

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Analys

Tightening fundamentals – bullish inventories from DOE

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1 månad sedan

den

26 juni, 2025

Redaktionen

The latest weekly report from the US DOE showed a substantial drawdown across key petroleum categories, adding more upside potential to the fundamental picture.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Commercial crude inventories (excl. SPR) fell by 5.8 million barrels, bringing total inventories down to 415.1 million barrels. Now sitting 11% below the five-year seasonal norm and placed in the lowest 2015-2022 range (see picture below).

Product inventories also tightened further last week. Gasoline inventories declined by 2.1 million barrels, with reductions seen in both finished gasoline and blending components. Current gasoline levels are about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Among products, the most notable move came in diesel, where inventories dropped by almost 4.1 million barrels, deepening the deficit to around 20% below seasonal norms – continuing to underscore the persistent supply tightness in diesel markets.

The only area of inventory growth was in propane/propylene, which posted a significant 5.1-million-barrel build and now stands 9% above the five-year average.

Total commercial petroleum inventories (crude plus refined products) declined by 4.2 million barrels on the week, reinforcing the overall tightening of US crude and products.