Analys
SEB – Råvarukommentarer vecka 22 2012
Brett råvaruindex: -2,79 %
UBS Bloomberg CMCI TR Index- Energi: -4,81 %
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Energy TR Index - Ädelmetaller: -1,06%
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Precious Metals TR Index - Industrimetaller: -2,15 %
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Industrial Metals TR Index - Jordbruk: -2,14 %
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Agriculture TR Index
Kortsiktig marknadsvy:
- Guld: Neutral/köp
- Olja: Neutral/sälj
- Koppar: Sälj
- Majs: Sälj
- Vete: Neutral
Guld
Sedan vårt senaste veckobrev har guldet stigit 0,30 procent. Priset verkar tillfälligtvis ha stabiliserats men överskuggas samtidigt av ekonomisk osäkerhet och en eskalerande europeisk kris. Det grekiska valet avgörs den 17:e juni och oron för att landet ska lämna eurosamarbetet är påtaglig. Greklands förre premiärminister Papademos varnar för en akut likviditetskris om folket inte röstar fram en stabil regering.
De senaste dagarna har även genomsyrats av dåliga nyheter från Spanien där läget blir allt mer bekymmersamt. De spanska bankerna är i akut behov av finansiellt stöd och även på regional nivå finns det stora finansiella problem. På tisdagskvällen meddelade dessutom centralbankschefen att han avgår en månad i förtid. Spansk tioårsräntan steg till 6,61 procent. I vanlig ordning motsvaras ränteuppgången i skuldkrisländerna av sjunkande räntor i de mer stabila länderna. Tysklands 10-åriga ränta låg igår på rekordlåga1,20 procent.
Nettolånga spekulativa positioner på COMEX har fortsatt att minska vilket sätter press på priset.
Förra veckan såg vi de lägsta nivåerna sedan december 2008. Även innehaven i världens största guld ETF, SPDR, fortsätter att minska.
Enligt indiska Bombay Bullion Association har efterfrågan på fysiskt guld i landet minskat. Enligt organisationen kommer Indien att importera cirka 50 ton guld under maj jämfört med 102 ton samma period föregående år. Anledningar till detta är en mot dollarn svag inhemsk valuta samt tullar som införts på importerat guld.
Mycket talar egentligen för guld, men guld beter sig förtillfället som en ”risky asset” och har tydligt kopplat loss från den långa stigande trenden. Vi föredrar för tillfället en försiktig hållning till guldet (med en stop loss i 1450/1500 regionen).
Teknisk analys: Den större bilden förblir som tidigare ograverat positiv så länge marknaden inte faller under 1521 (C vågens botten från december 2011). Denna vecka fokuserar vi lite mer på vad som skett runt maj botten. Som vi kan se har marknaden gång efter annan försökt ta sig nedåt men utan någon framgång vilket spikarna på nedsidan visar med all tydlighet. Detta beteende ska ses positivt (köparna kör över säljarna) samt att köpandet skett trots en kraftigt stigande dollar. Vi vidhåller alltså förra veckans försiktiga köprekommendation.
Olja
Priset på Nordsjöoljan Brent har sjunkit fem procent veckan som gått och har nu backat hela 14 procent sedan början av maj. Några av anledningarna till svagheten i oljepriset är kombinationen av en för tillfället överproduktion, dollarns styrka och ett negativt makrosentiment till följd av en förvärrad europeisk skuldkris. Saudiarabien har ett uttalat mål att få ner oljepriset till 100 dollar per fat och har hittills lyckats bra med att sätta press på priset. Ett pris under 100 dollar per fat är emellertid inte önskvärt.
Gårdagens officiella rapport över amerikanska oljelager som publiceras av DOE visade att råoljelager steg med 2,2 miljoner fat och lagren är nu de högsta på 22 år. Samtidigt är lagren av oljeprodukter relativt låga vilket är vanligt under raffinaderiunderhållssäsongen.
Spänningarna mellan Iran och västvärlden kvarstår och mötet som ägde rum förra veckan resulterade endast i beslut om nya förhandlingar i Moskva den 18-19 juni. Enligt uppgifter från FN har Iran fortsatt att öka sin produktion av anrikat uran. Iran har tydligt deklarerat att IAEA:s inspektörer inte har tillräckliga motiv för att få besöka Parchinanläggningen, ett forskningscentra för kärnvapen.
Enligt chefen för Irans kärnvapenprogram finns det ingen anledning till att upphöra med produktionen av anrikat uran vilket utgör grunden till en kärnvapenbomb. Sanktioner mot Iran träder ikraft den första juli.
Orkansäsongen har inletts. Enligt amerikanska National Hurricane Center nådde den tropiska stormen Beryl Floridas kust med vindstyrkor strax över 100 km/h. Vi ser en säsongsmässigt svag efterfrågan och vi anser att det finns risk för ett tillbakahållet oljepris på kort sikt. Dippar under 100 dollar kan innebära köptillfälle om man vill äga olja på lite längre sikt.
Teknisk analys: Fritt fall för det svarta guldet. Det temporära stödet, 105.15, höll under fyra/fem dagar innan vi kraschade ned igenom det. Vi är nu på väg i full fart mot ett test av nästa huvudstöd, den medel/långsiktiga nyckelnivån 100.93. Om inte köpare återfinnes där kommer en ånyo en säljsignal att utlösas, denna gång med ett mål under 94.
Koppar
Kopparpriset föll 0,75 procent veckan som gick. Kopparn dras ner av svag kinesisk data och den starka handelskopplingen mellan Europa och Kina och vi räknar med att denna turbulens kommer att fortsätta på kort sikt. Rapporter om höga kopparlager fortsätter dessutom att strömma ut ur Kina. Osäkerheten kring Europa påverkar kopparpriset negativt. Euron föll till den lägsta nivån mot dollarn på två år.
Marknaden håller idag ett öga på viktig ekonomisk data. Kinas officiella inköpschefsindex som publicerades i morse kom in lägre än väntat vilket antyder fortsatt tillväxtinbromsning under andra kvartalet. Amerikanska viktiga arbetsmarknadssiffrorna publiceras klockan 14.30.
Frågan är hur Kina kommer att hantera inbromsningen av tillväxten. Kinesiska myndigheter har tydligt påtalat att man genom stimulanser vill stabilisera tillväxten men samtidigt har en kinesisk statlig nyhetsbyrå rapporterat att stimulanserna kommer att bli mindre jämfört med krisen 2008/2009 och denna försiktighet från myndigheternas sida håller tillbaka kopparpriset.
Den globala produktionen av koppar understeg efterfrågan med 81 000 ton i februari i år, efter ett underskott om 29 000 ton i januari. Säsongsjusterat understeg produktionen efterfrågan med 100 000 ton enligt International copper Study Group, ICSG. Detta underskott av koppar i marknaden lyckas inte få priset att lyfta, i alla fall inte på kort sikt. Vi tror inte på en kollaps i kopparpriset men att det kan fortsätta vara skakigt och kortsiktigt tror vi att priset kan falla ytterligare.
Teknisk analys: Billigare koppar på gång. Marknaden har nu även passerat stödlinjen ifrån oktober 2011 varför vi nu fått ännu mer vatten på vår kvarn avseende säljrekommendationen. Som tidigare förväntar vi oss ingen större rekyl innan nacklinjen nås vid 6940.
Majs
Majspriset föll 0,89 procent veckan som gick. IGC har reviderat upp den globala majs produktionen för 2012/13 med 13 miljoner ton till rekordhöga 913 miljoner ton, främst till följd av förbättrade utsikter i USA, Kina och Brasilien. Ingående lager justeras upp med 6 miljoner ton till 141 miljoner ton, långt över förra säsongens 129 miljoner ton. Utbudet förväntas vara stabilt (jämfört med 2011/12) och majs kan komma att ersätta en del av vete som foderingrediens. Globala majs lager förväntas däremot att öka till ett treårs högsta i slutet av 2012/13 till följd av en rekordhög produktion.
Ukrainas produktion av majs beräknas till rekordhöga 24 miljoner ton, en ökning med 5.3% från 2011, och exporten till 14 miljoner ton – vilket är i linje med USDA prognos. Argentinas export av majs under 2011/12 estimeras ned 20 procent från förra året.
Kinas majsareal 2012/13 beräknas uppgå till 34.4 miljoner hektar, en ökning med en miljon från tidigare estimat, och landets produktion av majs uppskattas till 189 miljoner ton, jämfört med den tidigare uppskattningen på 186 miljoner ton. Prognosen för Kinas import av majs ligger på 7 miljoner ton, vilket är en ökning med en miljon ton från tidigare estimat och också en miljon ton högre än USDA senaste prognos. Vi fortsätter att vara kortsiktigt negativa till majspriset på grund av goda skördar och höga lagernivåer och rekommenderar därför en kort position.
Teknisk analys: Ramlade ur kanalen. Även om rörelserna företrädesvis fortsatt att vara relativt slumpartade och med låg sannolikhet så noterar vi i alla fall att det potentiella ras vi pekade på för två veckor sedan nu skett. Brottet ned ur den sluttande kanalen ökar naturligtvis nedåttrycket och borde ge mer prispress. Om vi ska följa skolboken borde vi kunna falla så djupt som 491 innan fast mark återfinnes.
Vete
Vetepriset har under veckan fallit med 2,10 procent. Marknaden för spannmål styrs främst av väderleksrapporter och nu är det framförallt fokus på nederbörd. Efterlängtade regn i Ryssland, Svartahavsregionen, Australien och USA har dämpat oron för allvarlig torka och därmed gjort att priserna, framförallt på vete, har fallit.
Australiens spannmålsproducerande områden i öster har fått välbehövligt regn under helgen och därmed höjt förhoppningarna om en högre avkastning för 2012/13 års veteproduktion. Delar av Ryssland, Ukraina och norra Kazakstan kommer att få svalare temperaturer och regn kommande dagar, vilket gynnar grödorna.
IGC (International Grains Council) skriver i sin senaste rapport att utsikterna för vete kommande säsong 2012/13 var fortsatt goda under maj, men ogynnsamma väderförhållanden i EU, Ryssland och Marocko sänker förväntningarna på kommande skördar och bidrar till att den globala produktionen justeras ned med 5 miljoner ton till 671 miljoner ton, en kraftig nedjustering från förra årets 676 miljoner ton. En ökad användning av foder leder till högre förväntad global konsumtion på 681 miljoner ton, vilket dock lägre än för 2011/12 eftersom majs till viss del förväntas ersätta vete till djurfoder. Detta kommer dock inte att uppväga nedgången i produktionen och globala utgående lager justeras därför ned till ett fyraårs lägsta på 191 miljoner ton.
Den globala exporten förväntas också bli lägre under 2012/13 jämfört med 2011/12 på grund av mindre skördar i Svartahavsregionen och minskat överskott i EU och Argentina för export. Matifvetet steg i slutet av förra veckan på rapporterna om torka i Ryssland, Ukraina och USA. Nya prognoser denna vecka har innehållit regn vilket fått priset att falla tillbaka. Kvalitén på höstvetets skörd i USA ligger nu på 54 procent good/excellent och det är fyra procent lägre jämfört förra veckan. Vi behåller vår neutrala syn på vetet.
Teknisk analys: Innevarande korrektion lägre bör nu vara i sin slutfas varför vi letar efter nya köpare runt idealmålet för korrektionen, 208.10. En påföljande uppgång över 217.50 kommer sedan att bekräfta fortsättningen av uppåttrenden (och nya toppar vad det lider).
[box]SEB Veckobrev Veckans råvarukommentar är producerat av SEB Merchant Banking och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]
Disclaimer
The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”).
Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.
About SEB
SEB is a public company incorporated in Stockholm, Sweden, with limited liability. It is a participant at major Nordic and other European Regulated Markets and Multilateral Trading Facilities (as well as some non-European equivalent markets) for trading in financial instruments, such as markets operated by NASDAQ OMX, NYSE Euronext, London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Börse, Swiss Exchanges, Turquoise and Chi-X. SEB is authorized and regulated by Finansinspektionen in Sweden; it is authorized and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK, and is subject to the provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where SEB conducts operations. SEB Merchant Banking. All rights reserved.
Analys
How renewable fuels are accelerating the decarbonisation of transport

On 16 November 2022, UK’s Royal Air Force (RAF) Voyager aircraft, the military variant of the Airbus A330, took to the skies for 90 minutes over Oxfordshire. What looked like a routine test flight in its outward appearance was ultimately deemed ground-breaking. Why? It was a world-first military transporter aircraft flight, and the first of any aircraft type in the UK to be completed using 100% sustainable jet fuel.

What are renewable fuels?
Renewable hydrocarbon biofuels (also called green or drop-in biofuels) are fuels produced from biomass sources through a variety of biological, thermal, and chemical processes. These products are chemically identical to petroleum gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel.
In other words, renewable fuels are sources of energy chemically identical to fossil fuels but produced from domestic, commercial, or agricultural waste (see Figure 1 below).
Figure 1: Converting waste into energy

Why the excitement?
Renewable fuels, like renewable diesel and sustainable jet fuel, can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by around 80-90% compared to fossil fuels. And because they burn much cleaner, engine filters remain cleaner for longer reducing the need for maintenance. Furthermore, given used cooking oil, vegetable oil, processing waste, and animal fat waste are used as inputs, the production of these fuels reduces biowaste, thereby cutting emissions from landfills.
This makes renewable fuels a key component of the circular economy. Humans have largely operated on the linear model historically when it comes to utilising natural resources. The circular model, in contrast, is much less wasteful and seeks to recycle as much as possible (see Figure 2 below).
Figure 2: The Circular Economy

The most exciting thing about renewable fuels is the immediacy with which they can make an impact. The reason why they are referred to as drop-in fuels is that they can replace fossil fuels in internal combustion engines with little or no modification required. So, if supply was abundant enough, forms of transport which cannot be electrified easily like heavy duty trucks, ships, and aeroplanes can be switched across to renewable fuels making a significant improvement to the environmental footprint. According to BP, “A return flight between London and San Francisco has a carbon footprint per economy ticket of nearly 1 tonne of CO2 equivalent. With the aviation industry expected to double to over 8 billion passengers by 2050, it is essential that we act to reduce aviation’s carbon emissions.”
The challenge
Renewable fuels or biofuels are still in their infancy. This means the obvious hurdle to overcome is cost competitiveness with fossil fuels. Cost estimates vary, but figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) provide a useful sense for the ballpark. In May 2022, IATA stated that the average worldwide price of jet fuel is about $4.15 per gallon compared to the US average price of a gallon of sustainable aviation fuel, which is about $8.67.
So, roughly double the price of the incumbent polluting technology. This is not a bad starting point at all. Considering how rapidly the cost of energy storage in batteries has fallen in the last decade, renewable fuels could become competitive quite soon if sufficient investment is made and economies of scale are achieved. IATA also predicts that renewable fuels could make up 2% of all aviation fuels by 2025, which could become a tipping point in their competitiveness.
Businesses are acting
Businesses pursuing their own net zero targets have already started exploring renewable fuels to minimise their waste. Darling Ingredients Inc, which produces its trademark Diamond Green Diesel from recycled animal fats, inedible corn oil, and used cooking oil, was chosen by fast food chain Chick-fil-A in March 2022 to turn its used cooking oil into clean transportation fuel.
Similarly, McDonald’s entered into a partnership with Neste Corporation in 2020 to convert its used vegetable oil into renewable diesel and fuel the trucks that make deliveries to its restaurants. According to TortoiseEcofin, both Darling Ingredients and Neste have a net negative carbon footprint given emissions produced by these businesses are lower that the emissions avoided because of their renewable fuels.
A final word
Renewable fuels alone will not tackle climate change. No single solution can. But they can help us make meaningful progress. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasises how crucial it is for the world to halve its greenhouse gas emissions this decade to at least have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5oC. This means that solutions with an immediate effect have an important role to play. Biofuels can cut emissions from waste in landfills and provide much cleaner alternatives to fossil fuels to help accelerate the world’s decarbonisation efforts. They don’t require different engines to be of use. They just need funding to reach scale.
Mobeen Tahir, Director, Macroeconomic Research & Tactical Solutions, WisdomTree
Analys
SEB Metals Weekly: China Covid exit is bullish for metals

China Covid exit is bullish for metals
Softer inflation, slight macro-optimism, and China taking a rapid exit from Covid restrictions. Markets have become more optimistic. Inflation indices have eased and that has created some hopes that central banks won’t lift interest to a level that will kill the economy in 2023. Natural gas prices in Europe have fallen sharply. This has suddenly reduced energy-inflationary pressure and removed the direst downside economic risks for the region. But general market optimism is far from super-strong yet. The S&P 500 index has only gained 1.9% since our previous forecast on 1 Nov 2021, and oil prices are down nearly 10% in a reflection of concerns for global growth. China has however removed all Covid-restrictions almost overnight. It is now set to move out of its three years of Covid-19 isolation and lockdowns at record speed. Industrial metals are up 20% and the Hong Kong equity index is up 40% as a result (since 1 Nov-22). China’s sudden and rapid Covid-19 exit is plain and simply bullish for the Chinese economy to the point that mobility indices are already rebounding quickly. SEB’s general view is that inflation impulses will fade quickly. No need then for central banks across the world to kill the global economy with further extreme rate hikes. These developments have removed much of the downside price risks for metals in 2023 and we have to a large degree shifted our 2024 forecast to 2023.
Lower transparency, more geopolitics, more borders, and higher prices and exponential spikes. The first decade of this century was about emerging markets, the BRICs, the commodity price boom, the commodity investment boom, and free markets with free flow of commodities and labor with China and Russia hand in hand with western countries walking towards the future. High capex spending in the first decade led to plentiful supply and low prices for commodities from 2011 to 2020. A world of plenty, friends everywhere, free flow of everything, and no need to worry. The coming decade will likely be very different. Supply growth will struggle due to mediocre capex spending over the past 10 years. Prices will on average be significantly higher. There will be frequent exponential price spikes whenever demand hits supply barriers. Price transparency will be significantly reduced due to borders, taxes, sanctions, geopolitical alignments, and carbon intensities. Prices will be much less homogenous. Aluminium will no longer be just one price and one quality. Who made it, where was it made, where will it be consumed and what the carbon content will create a range of prices. Same for most other metals.
Copper: Struggling supply and China revival propel copper prices higher. Unrest in Peru is creating significant supply risks for copper as the country accounts for 10% of the global supply. Chile accounts for 27% of global production. Production there is disappointing with Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper mining company, struggling to hit production targets. The Cobre Panama mine in Panama is at risk of being closed over a tax dispute between Quantum and the government. Cobre Panama is one of the biggest new mines globally over the past 10 years. The rapid exit from Covid restrictions in China is bullish for the Chinese economy and thus for copper demand and it has helped to propel prices higher along with the mentioned supply issues. The Chinese property market will continue to struggle, and it normally accounts for 20% of global copper demand while China accounted for 55% of global copper demand in 2021. While China is no longer prioritizing the housing market it is full speed ahead for solar, wind, EVs, and electrification in general. So, weakening Chinese copper demand from housing will likely be replaced by the new prioritized growth sectors. Global supply growth is likely going to be muted in the decade to come while demand growth will be somewhere between a normal 3% pa. to a strong 4% pa. to a very strong 5% pa. Copper prices will be high, and demand will hit the supply barrier repeatedly with exponential spikes as the world is working hard to accelerate the energy transition. Copper prices could easily spike to USD 15-16,000/ton nearest years.
Nickel: Tight high-quality nickel market but a surplus for a low-quality nickel. Nickel production is growing aggressively in Indonesia. The country is projected to account for 60-70% of global supply in 2030. This will become a huge and extremely concentrated geopolitical risk for the world’s consumers of nickel. Indonesia has an abundance of low-grade C2 nickel. The challenge is to convert low-quality C2 nickel to high-quality C1. We are set for a surplus of C2 nickel but the market for C1 nickel will depend strongly on the conversion capacity for C2 to C1. Low price transparency will also help to send prices flying between USD 20,000/ton and USD 30,000/ton. Strong growth in nickel production in Indonesia should initially call for prices down to USD 20,000/ton. But Indonesia is a price setter. It will account for 50% of global supply in 2023. It doesn’t make sense for Indonesia to kill the nickel price. If the nickel price drops, then Indonesia could quickly regulate supply. There should be a premium to nickel due to this. As a result, we expect the nickel price to average USD 24,000/ton in 2023. C2 to C1 conversion capacity may be strained and there should also be a monopoly premium due to the size of Indonesia. Converting C2 to C1 is however extremely carbon intensive and that could be an increasing issue in the years to come.
Zinc: Super-tight global market. European LME inventories are ZERO and zinc smelters there are still closed. European zinc smelters account for 16% of global zinc smelter capacity. Most of this was closed over the past year due to extremely high energy prices. European LME zinc stockpiles are now down to a stunning zero! The global zinc market is extremely tight. Reopening of European zinc smelting seems unlikely in H1-23 with a continued super-tight market as a result both in Europe and globally.
Aluminium: Price likely to be in the range of USD 2400 – 3200/ton and line with coal prices in China. Aluminium prices have historically been tightly tied to the price of coal. But coal prices have been all over the place since the start of 2021 with huge price differences between Amsterdam, Australia, and domestic Chinese coal prices which are now largely state-controlled. China banning imports of Australian coal, the Chinese energy crisis in 2021, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are ingredients here. This sent aluminium prices flying high and low. Coal prices in China today imply a price of aluminium between USD 2400/ton and 3150/ton with the LME 3mth aluminium price nicely in between at USD 2590/ton. The global coal market should now become more orderly as China now again is accepting Australian coal. Energy costs have fallen sharply in Europe and some producers in the Netherlands have talked about possible restarts of production. China is likely to reduce its exports of primary aluminium. Energy security of supply is high on the agenda in China, and it makes no sense to emit lots of CO2 in China and indirectly export energy in the form of primary aluminium. Growth in non-China aluminium demand in the years to come will have to be covered by non-China producers which have the potential to force prices higher and away from coal as the price driver. While LME has one price for the 3mth aluminium price we’ll likely get larger and larger price differences across the world in the form of possibly extreme price premiums for example in the EU and the US.

Analys
Solid demand growth and strained supply to push Brent above USD 100/b


Brent crude had a strong end of the year as it traded at the highest level since 1 December. It is a slow start to the new year due to bank holidays and Dated Brent trades close to USD 85/b. It averaged USD 99.9/b in 2022. We expect it to average more than USD 100/b on average for the coming year amid strained supply and rebounding demand. Chinese oil demand is set to recover strongly along with re-openings while non-OECD will continue to move higher. At the moment oil looks absurdly cheap as it is cheaper than natural gas in both EU and Japan and also cheaper than coal in Australia.
Some price strength at the end of the year. The Dated Brent crude oil price index gained 2.3% on Friday with a close at USD 84.97/b. It was the highest close since 1 December. This morning it is trading slightly lower at USD 84.8/b but the market is basically void of action due to bank holidays.

Gloom and doom but IEA, OPEC and US EIA project global crude oil demand to rise between 1 m b/d and 2.2 m b/d YoY in 2023. They also expect call-on-OPEC to rise between 0.3 m b/d and 1.0 m b/d. The US EIA projects demand to increase 1 m b/d in 2023 on the back of a growth of 1.3 m b/d in non-OECD where demand in India rises by 0.2 m b/d and China by 0.6 m b/d. In China this is of course to a large degree due to re-opening after Covid-19 lock-downs. But it is still a good reminder of the low base of oil demand in non-OECD versus OECD. India last year consumed 5 m b/d which only amounts to 1.3 b/capita/year versus a world average of 4.5 b/capita/year and European demand of 10 b/capita/year. Even China is still below the world average as its demand in 2022 stood at 15.2 m b/d or 4.0 b/capita/yr. Non-OECD oil demand thus still has a long way to go in terms of oil demand and that is probably one of the things we’ll be reminded of in 2023 as Covid-19 lock-downs disappear entirely.
Solid demand growth in the face of strained supply. Important to remember is that the world has lost a huge amount of fossil supply from Russia due to the war in Ukraine. First in terms of natural gas where supply to the EU and thus to the world has declined by some 2.5 m boe/d versus pre-war levels. Secondly in terms of crude and products. The latter is of course a constant guessing game in terms of how much Russian crude and product exports has declined. The US EIA however projects that crude oil production in the Former Soviet Union will be down 2 m b/d in 2023 versus pre-Covid levels and down 1.3 m b/d YoY from 2022 to 2023. We are thus talking up to 4.5 m boe/d of lost supply from Russia/FSU. That is a huge loss. It is the reason why coal prices are still trading at USD 200 – 400/ton versus normal USD 85/ton as coal is an alternative to very expensive natural gas.
Overall for 2023 we are looking at a market where we’ll have huge losses in supply of fossil energy supply from Russia while demand for oil is set to rebound solidly (+1.0 – 2.2 m b/d) along with steady demand growth in non-OECD plus a jump in demand from China due to Covid-19 reopening. Need for oil from OPEC is set to rise by up to 1.0 m b/d YoY while the group’s spare capacity is close to exhausted.
We expect Brent crude to average more than USD 100/b in 2023. Despite all the macro economic gloom and doom due to inflation and rising interest rates we cannot help having a positive view for crude oil prices for the year to come due to the above reasons. The Dated Brent crude oil price index averaged USD 99.9/b in 2022. We think Brent crude will average more than USD 100/b in 2023. Oil is today absurdly cheap at USD 85/b. It is cheaper than both coal in Australia and natural gas both in Japan and the EU. This is something you hardly ever see. The energy market will work hard to consume more what is cheap (oil) and less of what is expensive (nat gas and coal).
Latest forecasts by IEA, OPEC and US EIA for oil demand growth and call-on-OPEC YoY for 2023. Solid demand growth and rising need for oil from OPEC.

Oil demand projections from the main agencies and estimated call-on-OPEC. More demand and higher need for oil from OPEC

EIA STEO projected change in oil demand for different countries and regions YoY to 2023

US EIA Dec STEO forecast for FSU oil production. Solid decline projected for 2023.

US commercial crude and product stocks still below normal

Total US crude and product stocks including SPR. Declining, declining, declining.

US crude and product inventories both excluding and including Strategic Petroleum Reserves

US oil sales from US SPR is now coming to an end. Will make the market feel much tighter as it really is.

Brent crude oil is absurdly cheap as it today trades below both Australian coal and natural gas in both Japan and the EU. Coal and natural gas prices should trade lower while oil should trade higher.

EU diesel prices versus natural gas prices. Could start to move towards a more natural price-balance in terms of substitution.

-
Nyheter4 veckor ago
Oljepriset ser ut att vända uppåt i mars-april
-
Nyheter1 vecka ago
Oljepriset lägre än intervallet där USA ska köpa tillbaka olja – över hela terminskurvan
-
Nyheter5 dagar ago
Den stora oljeoptimisten Goldman Sachs tror inte längre på 100 USD-olja i år
-
Nyheter4 veckor ago
Ryssland har stoppat oljeleveranserna till Polen via Druzhba-ledningen
-
Nyheter7 dagar ago
Oman tar ett stort steg i att bli en stor producent av vätgas
-
Nyheter3 veckor ago
Den sämsta apelsinskörden på 90 år i Florida
-
Nyheter1 vecka ago
Företagare kan säkra kassan genom att köpa fysiskt guld
-
Nyheter4 veckor ago
USA inför en enorm tull på rysk aluminium