Analys
SEB – Råvarukommentarer vecka 11 2012
Sammanfattning: Föregående vecka
Brett råvaruindex: -0,96 %
UBS Bloomberg CMCI TR Index- Energi: +1,05 %
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Energy TR Index - Ädelmetaller: -0,09 %
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Precious Metals TR Index - Industrimetaller: -2,02 %
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Industrial Metals TR Index - Jordbruk: -2,24 %
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Agriculture TR Index
Kortsiktig marknadssyn:
- Guld: Neutral
- Olja: Neutral/sälj
- Koppar: Neutral/sälj
- Majs: Neutral/köp
- Vete: Köp
Guld
- Guldpriset föll efter fredagens arbetsstatistik, vilken var något bättre än förväntat. Den amerikanska sysselsättningen utanför jordbrukssektorn ökade med 227 000 personer, totalt sett åtta procent över förväntan. Arbetslösheten låg kvar på 8,3 procent. Totalt var 12,8 miljoner människor arbetslösa i februari.
- Dollarn sjönk på beskedet och eventuellt kan siffrorna leda till att marknaden förväntar sig att FED kommer att höja räntan snabbare än den tidigare utannonserad räntebanan vill göra gällande.
- Guldet reagerade även negativt på att Kina, som av många ses som den globala ekonomins motor, sänkte sitt tillväxtmål för 2012. Detta skulle kunna indikera en minskning i landets stimulansåtgärder, något som i praktiken talar mot ett högre guldpris.
- Enligt National Bureau of Statistics har även den kinesiska guldproduktionen ökat kraftigt, men det ökade utbudet kommer till stor del att fångas upp av en stark inhemsk efterfrågan.
- ECB lämnade räntan oförändrad. Detta var helt i linje med marknadens förväntningar och innebär en fortsatt låg alternativkostnad till att hålla guld.
- Många taktiska investerare minskar nu sina innehav i guld, detta delvis som en funktion av den starka dollarn. Vi förhåller oss fortsatt neutrala till guldpriset.
- Teknisk Analys: I och med att vi hållit oss under 1740 befinner vi oss fortfarande i korrektionsfasen. Ett först försök ned i 55/233d medelvärdesbanden har avvisats något som mycket väl kan vara slutet på korrektionen och en uppgång över 1725/40 bekräftar att så är fallet. Fram till dess kvarstår dock en viss osäkerhet.
Kortsiktig marknadssyn: Neutral
Olja
- Hoppet om minskade spänningar i Mellanöstern har ökat i och med beskedet att USA, Ryssland, Kina, Storbritannien, Frankrike och Tyskland ska träffa Irans chefsförhandlare. Samtalen kommer då att röra kärnenergiprogrammet och osäkerheten är stor inför dessa möten. President Barack Obama har i sin tur sagt att det fortfarande finns utrymme för en diplomatisk lösning.
- Även de bilaterala spänningarna mellan Israel och Iran består. Israels premiärminister Netanyahu sade efter ett möte med president Obama att han inte kommer tillåta att Israel blir hotat av ett iranskt kärnvapen. I Iran svarade en ledamot i försvarsutskottet att Irans militära kapacitet har växt och att landet skulle hämnas en eventuell attack från israeliskt håll.
- Ovan nämnda situation fortsätter att prägla oljemarknaden. Skulle man mot all förmodan nå en överenskommelse skulle det minska spänningarna avsevärt.
- Den ökade andelen spekulativa köpare av olja skulle kunna förstärka rörelsen rejält vid en eventuell nedgång. Detta då ett unisont säljande skulle aktivera en mängd stoploss-nivåer.
- Vi förhåller oss svagt negativa till oljepriset denna vecka.
- Teknisk Analys: Förra veckas misslyckade försök att ta sig upp ur den stigande parallell-kanalen har vare sig lockat till något aggressivare säljande (vilket man kanske kunde ha väntat sig) eller något förnyat köpande av betydelse. Därav att vi går in i nästa vecka med en neutral vy dock med en viss faiblesse för ytterligare nedgång. Ett brott under 121 skulle utlösa en huvud skuldra topp formation och en nedgång till antingen 119 eller 116.
Kortsiktig marknadssyn: Neutral/sälj olja
Koppar
- Enligt en rådgivare till den Kinesiska centralbanken kommer fastighetspriserna att fortsätta sjunka under året, men detta innebär inte att vi får se ett stort prisfall. Regeringen kommer att fortsätta strama åt fastighetsmarknaden, men målet med åtstramningarna är en kontrollerad prisutveckling.
- Lagernivån hos London Metal Exchange är för närvarande 289 000 ton, vilken är den lägsta nivån sedan augusti 2009. Samtidigt uppvisar Shanghai både höga lagernivåer och en god kopparproduktion.
- Kinesisk statistik visar att inflationen för februari var 3,2 % vilket är 20-månaderslägsta. Detta innebär att den nu är under målet på 4 procent, något som väcker förhoppningar om kommande monetär stimulans. Enligt Kinas premiärminister förväntas Kina uppvisa en tillväxt på 7,5 procent, vilket är mindre än den åttaprocentiga tillväxt som landet alltid haft som målsättning. Enligt premiärministern kommer landet att föra en försiktig monetär politik vilket gör att marknaden kan förvänta sig ytterligare stimulans.
- Enligt CFTC ökar andelen spekulativa positioner och uppmäter nu 155 000 kontrakt, vilket är den högsta nivån sedan augusti 2011. Detta öppnar för en förstärkning av eventuella negativa prisrörelser.
- Teknisk Analys: Vi noterar, med en viss tillfredsställelse, att vi nu fått både en lägre topp samt, vilket är viktigare, en andra bortstötning från 233dagars bandet. Vi tror att detta torde vara nog för att attrahera ett tilltagande säljtryck varför vi håller en försiktig negativ vy inför nästa vecka.
Majs
- I mars månads WASDE-rapport, vilken kom ut i fredags eftermiddag, justerade det amerikanska jordbruksdepartementet (USDA) ned sin prognos något avseende de globala majslagren.
- Marknaden hade dock förväntat sig ännu svagare siffror, detta efter de senaste månadernas köldvåg runt Svarta havet samt torkan i Sydamerika.
- Totalt sett var majspriset ned under förra veckan, men fredagens rapport fick priset att komma upp en del igen innan veckan kunde summeras. Enligt ett marknadsbrev från CME hade en hel del spekulanter positionerat sig mot en nedgång i samband med rapporten, dessa aktörer hjälpte majspriset uppåt då de var tvungna att stänga ut sina positioner.
- Bortsett från den förhållandevis intetsägande rapporten för majs var det stora samtalsämnet den ökade importen från Kina under 2012. Även detta tryckte upp priserna.
- Fundamentalt sett bedömer vi att efterdyningarna efter fredagens rapport kan få priset att ligga kvar, eller till och med gå upp något denna vecka. Vi väljer att särskilt hålla ögonen på den sydamerikanska utvecklingen.
- Teknisk Analys: Försöket att bryta dödläget genom ett brott upp ur innevarande intervall misslyckades då det enda resultatet av testet blev en s.k. spik, dvs. rakt upp och rakt ned samma dag. Misslyckandet muntrade i sin tur upp säljarna som därefter lyckats pressa ned priset till 55dagars medelvärdesbandet, det primära stödet. Veckans utveckling gör att vi bibehåller en neutral vy.
Vete
- Efter att ha fallit under hela veckan kom vetepriset i Paris tillbaka ordentligt under fredagen, detta trots att prognosen på lagernivåerna i Euroland justerades upp något jämfört med förra månadens WASDE-rapport.
- På global basis reviderade USDA ned sin syn på vetelagren. Detta fick enligt ovan priset i Paris, men även i Chicago, att på fredagen återhämta sig något jämfört med föregående dagar.
- En nation vars vetebehov diskuterats flitigt i dagarna är Iran, där importen väntas bli förhållandevis stor under 2012. Faktum är att USDA:s största uppjustering av importbehovet är för Iran.
- Enligt en del analytiker börjar en mängd industriella spannmålskonsumenter nu byta från majs till vete som djurfoder, detta då vetepriset än en gång kommit ned strax under majspriset. Som referens kan nämnas att vetepriset i Chicago de senaste 10 åren i snitt varit drygt 40 procent högre än majspriset.
- Med indikationer om ett förväntat ökat behov av vete bedömer vi fundamentalt att risken för vetepriset i Paris denna vecka ligger på uppsidan. Trots att ryska källor idag har gått ut med uppgifter om goda markförhållanden för den kommande skörden tror vi inte att det kommer att kunna trycka priset nedåt denna vecka.
- Teknisk Analys: Med fortsatt bra stöd i medelvärdesbanden (samt de tidigare pekade på upprepade trevågs nedgångarna (A-B-C = korrektiva rörelser) fortsätter vi att peka på bra potential för ytterligare uppgång. Ett brott över 212.25 bör att vara den utlösande faktorn och ett brott ger vid handen ett mål uppemot 245.
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Disclaimer
The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”).
Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.
About SEB
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Analys
The cuts are for real and are already bullishly impacting the market

Thumbs down was first reaction by financial market. The market gave the decision from the latest OPEC+ meeting an unexpectedly bearish reception. Yes, it was an unusual type of decision as well as the form of the communication. It was individual, ’voluntary’ cuts rather than a wide OPEC+ based decision with cuts divided pro-rate across the group. The communication of these cuts were not done by the OPEC secretariat as is usual but rather by the individual energy ministers who committed to cuts. All this gave the decision an airy feel with the sense that ’voluntary’ meant kind of ’maybe’ instead of real commitments. Further that the group is no longer tied properly together with no solid unanimous decision. It all summed up to ’thumbs down’ by the financial market and the price fell.

The cuts are real and ’voluntary’ doesn’t mean ’maybe’. These ’voluntary’ committed cuts are no less firm commitments and no less real than the current voluntary cut by Saudi Arabia which continues to hold its production at 9.0 m b/d vs a normal 10 m b/d. These are real cuts: Russia -200 k b/d, Iraq: 223 k b/d, UAE 163 k b/d, Kuwait 135 k b/d, Kazakhstan 82 k b/d, Algeria 51 k b/d and Oman 42 k b/d. Total 896 k b/d. Compliance is of course always an issue. But broadly we expect these cuts to be delivered.
US oil inventories may continue to show marginal, bearish tendencies in December. These cuts will kick in from January 2024 and as such they will not impact oil inventories before then. So weekly US oil inventory data can continue to deliver marginally bearish data points through December along a trend for a while now where we have seen that total commercial crude and product stocks inches closer and closer towards the 2015-19 seasonal average.
The new cuts by OPEC+ is already physically impacting the market with tighter availability of crude cargoes for January programs. But that doesn’t mean that the new committed cuts by OPEC+ from January 2024 isn’t already impacting the physical oil market and oil prices. They are. Sales of physical oil cargoes by OPEC+ for January crude shipment programs are already in full swing. Refineries around the world are already now in the process of purchasing physical crude cargoes for Q1-24. Offerings of crude cargoes for Q1-24 by OPEC+ were immediately reduced the moment OPEC+ decided to reduce supply by 900 k b/d from January onward. Forward physical crude buyers are thus already experiencing a tighter supply in their forward purchases. And as such oil prices are already impacted.
Cuts are a backstop against deteriorating crude prices sub-USD 80/b and not a recipe for USD 100/b. The fresh 900 k b/d cut is not a recipe to drive the oil price to USD 100/b. In our eyes it is more of an effort to prevent the oil price from deteriorating further below USD 80/b. It is a backstop. And as such we think it is probably a sufficient backstop.
The bottoming of the global manufacturing cycle will be the ’big, fat cigar’ for OPEC+. It is pointless for OPEC+ to try to drive the oil price to USD 100/b without a solid tailwind from an accelerating global economy. Their best option is to try to stabilize the oil price around USD 80/b and then savor the joyride once the global economic cycle bottoms out and starts to accelerate. Long positions in oil will then rise rapidly and physical demand (oil demand growth) will accelerate. Both underpinning oil prices. OPEC+ can then lean back and smoke a big, fat cigar! The big, big question is of course when that will happen? Will we first have an ugly, economic setback in 2024/25 due to the strong rise in interest rates over the past 1-2 years? Or will inflation evaporate completely over the coming quarters because it is a complete creation of the exceptional Covid-19 events which are now reversing back towards normal? Financial markets are struggling to decide which one of these it will be. Ugly trough before global acceleration of global acceleration right away if inflation evaporates completely?
A macro economist I worked with during the global financial crises argued strongly then that the first sign of bottoming and acceleration would be found by looking at the manufacturing PMI of South Korea since they produce a swath of industrial sub-components which the global industrial engine needs. Much has changed since 2008/09 and true or false I don’t know as I’m not a macro economist. But here it is:
Manufacturing PMIs. South Korea has bottomed and lifted to the 50-line

Analys
SEB Metals price forecast update

Softer economic growth in 2024 calls for somewhat softer metals prices in 2024. Industrial metals prices as well as other commodity prices exploded during Covid-19 as governments around the world unleashed stimuli in the magnitude of 10x of what was done during the global financial crisis in 2008/09. Consumers shifting spending from services to consumer goods added to the boom. Bloomberg’s industrial metals price index was up 91% in March 2022 versus January 2020 because of this. Global manufacturing PMI peaked in May 2021 and has been fading since and below the 50-line from September 2022 with latest reading at 48.8. Industrial metals prices have faded since their peak in March 2022 but are still 30% higher than they were in January 2020. Even zinc, the worst performing metal, is still 9% above where it was in January 2020. As such one could possibly argue that industrial metals have not yet fully faded from their Covid-19 stimulus boom. One possible explanation could be inflation where US inflation is up 19% over the period. But this still leaves industrial metals up 11% in real terms. Another possible explanation is the big jump in energy prices over the period. While coal and gas prices have fallen back a lot, they are still quite high. The coal price in western Europe is 110% above where it was at the start 2020 and 50% above its 2010-2019 average. Most industrial metals are highly energy intensive to produce with digging and crushing of rocks, smelting, and refining of ore. The current aluminium price of USD 2215/ton is for example well aligned with coal prices. In addition to this there has also been significant closures of zinc and aluminium smelting capacity in Europe which probably have supported prices for these metals.
Global economic growth is forecasted to slow from 3.5% in 2022, to 3.0% in 2023 and then again to 2.9% in 2024 as the big jump in interest rates induce economic pain with a lag. Aligned with this we expect lower industrial metals prices in 2024 than in 2023 though only marginally lower for most of the metals. But the field of metals is wide, and the price action is thus adverse. Copper is likely the metal with the most strained supply and with huge needs in the global energy transition.
Aluminium: Prices will likely be depressed versus marginal costs in 2024. Aluminium from Russia is flowing unhindered to the market. Most is going to China for reprocessing and potentially re-exported while some is going to Turkey and Italy. It is all flowing into the global pool of aluminium and as such impacting the global market balance. The LME 3mth aluminium price is currently well aligned with coal prices and both have traded mostly sideways since June this year. Aluminium premiums in the EU have however fallen 30-40% since mid-June in a sign of weakness there. The global market will likely run a surplus in 2024 with depressed prices versus the marginal cost of production.
Copper: Softer fundamentals in 2024 but with accelerating tightness on the horizon. Copper is currently trading at USD 8470/ton and close to 37% above its early Jan 2020 level. The market is expected to run a slight surplus in 2024 followed by accelerating tightness the following years. Downside price risk for 2024 is thus warranted along with softer global growth. The power of Unions is however getting stronger in Latin America with demands for higher salaries. Strikes have broken out in Peru with production at the Las Bambas copper mine at only 20%. Further strikes and disruptions could quickly put the market into deficit also in 2024.
Nickel: Indonesia pursuing market share over price pushing the price down the cost curve. Indonesia’s nickel production is growing rapidly. Its production reached 1.6 million ton in 2022 (+54% YoY) and accounted for close to 50% of total global supply in 2022. Its share looks set to reach 70% by 2030. Lower prices will stimulate demand and will also force higher cost producers to shut down thus making room for the wave of new supply from Indonesia. Prices will be sluggis the nearest years as Indonesia aims for market share over price.
Zinc: Price has stabilized around USD 2500/t. Weakness in global construction will drive prices lower at times in 2024. The 3mth LME zinc price has fallen from a peak of USD 4499/ton in April 2022 to only USD 2248/ton in May 2023. Since then, it has recovered steadily to USD 2500/ton. Demand could struggle in 2024 as construction globally will likely struggle with high interest rates. But mine closures is a natural counter effect of low prices and will put a floor under prices.
Price outlook

Bjarne Schieldrop
Cheif Commodities Analyst
SEB Commodity Research
Analys
Now it’s up to OPEC+

All eyes are now back at OPEC+ after the recent fall in oil prices along with weakening crude curve structures and weakening economic statistics. OPEC+ will have to step up the game and give solid guidance of what it intends to do in 2024. If Saudi Arabia is to carry the burden alone (with only a little help from Russia) it will likely need to keep its production at around 9.0 m b/d on average for 2024 and drop it down towards 8.5 m b/d in Q1-24. This may be too much to ask from Saudi Arabia and it may demand some of the other OPEC members to step up and join in on the task to regulate the market in 2024. More specifically this means Iraq, Kuwait and UAE. The oil market will likely be quite nervous until a firm message from Saudi/Russia/OPEC+ is delivered to the market some time in December.

Saudi Arabia may get some help from President Joe Biden though as his energy secretary adviser, Amos Hochstein, has stated that the US will enforce sanctions on Iran on more than 1 m b/d.
Brent crude fell 4.6% ydy to USD 77.4/b and over the last three trading sessions it has lost USD 5.1/b. This morning it is trading only marginally higher at USD 77.6/b which is no vote of confidence. A good dose of rebound this morning would have been a signal that the sell-off yesterday possibly was exaggerated and solely driven by investors with long positions flocking to the exit. So there’s likely more downside to come.
In general there is a quite good relationship between net long speculative positions in Brent crude and WTI versus the global manufacturing cycle. Oil investors overall typically have an aversion of holding long positions in oil when the global economy is slowing down. As of yet there are few signs that the global economic cycle is about to turn. Rather the opposite seems to be the case. Global manufacturing fell in October and yesterday we saw US industrial production fall 0.6% MoM while continued jobless claims rose more than expected and to the highest level in two years. This matches well with the logic that the strong rise in interest rates since March 2022 is inflicting pain on the economy with more pain ahead as the effect comes with a lag.
Most estimates are that the global oil market is running a solid deficit in Q4-23. The IEA has an implied deficit in the global oil market of 1 m b/d in Q4-23 if we assume that OPEC will produce 28 m b/d vs. a call-on-OPEC at 29 m b/d. But prices in the oil market is telling a different story with weakening crude curves, weakening refining margins and a sharp sell-off in oil prices.
For 2024 the general forecasts are that global economic growth will slow, global oil demand growth will slow and also that the need for oil from OPEC will fall from 28.7 m b/d to 28.4 m b/d (IEA). This is a bearish environment for oil. The average Brent crude oil price so far this year is about USD 83/b. It should essentially be expected to deliver lower in 2024 with the negatives mentioned above.
Two things however will likely counter this and they are interconnected. US shale oil activity has been slowing with falling drilling rig count since early December 2022 and that has been happening at an average WTI price of USD 78/b. The result is that total US liquids production is set to grow by only 0.3 m b/d YoY in Q4-24. This allows OPEC+ to support the oil price at USD 80-90/b through 2024 without fear of loosing a significant market share to US oil production. Thus slowing US liquids production and active price management by OPEC+ goes hand in hand. As such we do expect OPEC+ to step up to the task.
So far it has predominantly been Saudi Arabia with a little help from Russia which together proactively have managed the oil market and the oil price through significant cuts. Saudi Arabia produced 10.5 m b/d in April but then cut production rapidly to only 9.0 m b/d which is what it still produces. Its normal production is about 10 m b/d.
What has made the situation more difficult for Saudi Arabia is the combination of solid growth in non-OPEC supply in 2023 (+2.1 m b/d YoY; IEA) but also a substantial revival in production by Venezuela and Iran. The two produced 660 k b/d more in October than they on average did in 2022. So the need for oil from Saudi Arabia is squeezed from both sides.
All eyes are now back at OPEC+ after the recent fall in oil prices along with weakening crude curve structures and weakening economic statistics.
OPEC+ will have to step up the game and give solid guidance of what it intends to do in 2024. If Saudi Arabia is to carry the burden alone (with only a little help from Russia) then it will likely need to keep its production at around 9.0 m b/d on average for 2024 and drop it down towards 8.5 m b/d in Q1-24. This may be too much to ask from Saudi Arabia and it may demand some of the other OPEC members to step up and join in on the task to regulate the market in 2024. More specifically this means Iraq, Kuwait and UAE.
The oil market will likely be quite nervous until a firm message from Saudi/Russia/OPEC+ is delivered to the market some time in December.
Saudi Arabia may get some help from President Joe Biden though as his energy secretary adviser, Amos Hochstein, has stated that the US will enforce sanctions on Iran on more than 1 m b/d.
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