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Analys

SEB – Råvarukommentarer vecka 10 2012

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Sammanfattning: Föregående vecka

  • Analyser - Prognos på priser för råvarorBrett råvaruindex: -0,57 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI TR Index
  • Energi: -2,33 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Energy TR Index
  • Ädelmetaller: -3,50 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Precious Metals TR Index
  • Industrimetaller: +0,17 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Industrial Metals TR Index
  • Jordbruk: +1,59 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Agriculture TR Index

Kortsiktig marknadssyn:

  • Guld: Neutral
  • Olja: Neutral/köp
  • Koppar: Sälj
  • Majs: Neutral/sälj
  • Vete: Neutral/sälj

Guld

Diagram på guldpris (Comex) den 5 mars 2012

  • Guldet föll 4,3 procent under onsdagen, detta efter att Ben Bernanke i Fedskonjunkturrapport bekräftade mer positiva signaler inom tillverkningsindustrin,hushållens konsumtion, bostads-/byggsektorn samt arbetsmarknaden. Förbättringarna är visserligen små, men visar ändå tecken på att USA:s ekonomi fortsätter att förbättras. Eftersom Bernanke inte nämnde något om fortsatta kvantitativa lättnader i sitt tal föll priset på guld som tillfälligtvis handlade under 1700 dollar/ozt. Dollarn stärktes efter Bernankes tal, vilket spädde på fallet ytterligare.
  • Enligt Bloomberg ökade under förra veckan inflödet i börshandlade produkter med fysiskt guld som underliggande och uppnådde ett rekordhögt 2404 ton.
  • Marknaden reagerade inte nämnvärt på ECBs 3-åriga repa där banker mot säkerheter får låna ett obegränsat belopp till en procents ränta. Denna ökning av likviditet hade marknaden redan prisat in och guldpriset påverkades inte heller av denna åtgärd.
  • Teknisk Analys: Marknaden nådde nästan ända upp till huvudmotståndet, 1803, innan en lite starkare vinsthemtagning slog till. Givet styrkan i nedgången är det troligt att det nu tar någon/några veckor innan marknaden samlat kraft och mod nog för ett nytt försök. Kommande veckan bör säljarna återfinnas runt 1740, dvs. mitten av onsdagens nedgång och om vi stiger över denna punkt så pekar det mesta på en redan avslutad korrektion och följaktligen ett nytt test högre.

Kortsiktig marknadssyn: Neutral

Guld - Teknisk analys - Prognos den 5 mars 2012

Olja

Olja - Diagram över prisutveckling januari 2011 - 2012

  • För att kompensera för läget i Iran ökar nu de övriga OPEC-länderna sin oljeproduktion.
  • Även Ryssland ökar produktionen som nu uppgår till 10,36 miljoner fat per dag, de högsta nivåerna sedan Sovjetunionens kollaps.
  • I torsdags steg Brentpriset till 128,4 USD/fat efter rykten, som spreds genom Iransk media, om att en oljeledning i Saudiarabien exploderat. Landet dementerade ryktet och oljan föll tillbaka något på fredagen.
  • Oljelagernivåerna i industrialiserade länder är på de lägsta nivåerna på fyra år och inom Europa på de lägsta nivåerna på 15 år. Det finns inga tillförlitliga siffror på hur stor reservkapaciteten är, men en sommar med ökad konsumtion på grund av luftkonditionering och utebliven Iransk export skulle kunna öka riskpremien i oljemarknaden ytterligare.
  • Konflikterna mellan Sudan och Sydsudan fortsätter: Sudan har krävt att Sydsudan betalar motsvarande 30 dollar per fat olja i transitavgift för raffinering och användning av landets oljeledningar. Sydsudan har meddelat att man som mest är beredd att betala motsvarande 1 dollar per fat olja, detta med hänvisning till att regeringen redan betalar avgifter till bolagen som äger infrastrukturen.
  • I Syrien, som är en nära allierad till Iran, fortsätter inbördeskriget. Syrien är ingen stor oljeproducent, men oroligheterna i MENA-regionen ökar även den riskpremien i oljepriset
  • Teknisk Analys: Gårdagens spik ovanför parallellkanalen ska nog ses som det första tecknet på att köparna börjar bli mättade. Även faktumet att stochastic uppvisar en potentiell negativ divergens (högre topp i pris, lägre topp i indikator) indikerar att vi nu närmar oss åtminstone en temporär topp. Tills denna är bekräftad (under 120.50) så kvarstår en öppning för att nå nästa Fibonacci nivå, 130/131.

Olja - Teknisk analys och prognos den 5 mars 2012

Koppar

Koppar - Diagram över prisutveckling januari 2011 - 2012

  • Världsbankens chef Robert Zoellick tror Kina sannolikt kommer att få se en ”mjuklandning” av sin tillväxt i år.
  • Det officiella kinesiska PMI-indexet som publicerades förra veckan visade en uppgång till 51,0 i februari, en uppgång från 50,5 månaden före. HSBC:s inköpschefsindex för tillverkningsindustrin stannade dock under den viktiga 50- nivån, trots en ökning från 48,8 till 49,6.
  • Produktionen vid Grasberggruvan i Indonesien ligger fortfarande nere på grund av strejk om arbetsförhållanden, men arbetet bör återupptas denna vecka. Grasberg i Indonesien är världens största guldgruva och den tredje största koppargruvan.
  • Enligt handlare i marknaden har kopparlagren i Shanghai ökat till 400 000 ton förra veckan, vilket kan jämföras med 350 000 ton föregående vecka. Låg inhemsk efterfrågan och låga inhemska priser har lett till att importörer valt att tillfälligt lagra metallen.
  • Teknisk Analys: Vår huvudsakliga vy är fortfarande att markanden bör vända nedåt i eller runt 233dagars bandet. Så länge inte 8765 (alternativt 8925) inte bryts bör fokus ligga på att söka en säljsignal.

Koppar - Teknisk analys och prognos på pris den 5 mars 2012

Majs

Majs - Prisutveckling januari 2011 - 2012

  • Efter ökad oro för utbudet av majs och sojabönor kunde vi i tisdags se hur priserna gick upp till de högsta nivåerna sedan början av året. Framförallt torkan i Sydamerika har skapat oro i marknaden.
  • Under slutet av förra veckan strejkade hamnarbetarna i ett flertal av de argentinska spannmålshamnarna. Då landet är en av världens största majs- och sojabönsexportör kan detta eventuellt ge ytterligare stöd uppåt i det korta perspektivet.
  • I torsdags meddelade USDA att de bedömer att Kinas grisuppfödning kommer att öka med drygt 4 procent under 2012. Då den huvudsakliga delen av majsproduktionen går till djuruppfödning kan denna typ av uttalanden ge tillfälligt stöd åt priset.
  • De spekulativa köparna kommer tillbaka i allt större utsträckning, där vi nu är på de högsta nivåerna under hela 2012.
  • På fredag kommer det amerikanska jordbruksdepartementet ut med årets tredje WASDE-rapport. Vi förhåller oss svagt negativa till majspriset inför denna publikation.
  • Teknisk Analys: Marknaden har sedan sist byggt lite positivare momentum vilket föranleder lite noggrannare bevakning av motstånden då det ju fortfarande förhåller sig så att om ett brott över trend linjen (och kanske ännu viktigare januari toppen 672 ½) sker bör vi kunna måla in en fortsatt uppgång till 717/741 området.

Majs - Teknisk analys och prognos den 5 mars 2012

Vete

Prisutveckling på vete - Januari 2011 - 2012

  • Vetepriset gick starkt i Paris under hela förra veckan, bland annat baserat på rapporter om svagare veteskörd i Europa, detta som en konsekvens av den ovanligt svåra kylan under början av året.
  • Det skrivs för tillfället mycket om de amerikanska bönderna och vad de förväntas så under 2012. Efter att sojabönspriset har gått väsentligen starkare än både majs och vete de senaste veckorna spekuleras det nu kring huruvida en stor del av bönderna i USA kommer att så detta istället för vete de kommande månaderna.
  • Enligt U.S. Wheat Associates talar mycket för att vi på kort tid bör kunna se priserna mellan det relativt sett starka europeiska och det i jämförelse svaga amerikanska vetet gå ihop. Efterfrågan på amerikanskt vete bör öka i det korta perspektivet till stor del på grund av en försvagad dollar, låga fraktpriser samt förhållandevis goda utbudssiffror relativt Europa.
  • I torsdags kom nyheten om att Iran har börjat köpa amerikanskt vete, vilket stärker tesen ytterligare om att prisnivån i nuläget ser intressant ut ur ett globalt perspektiv.
  • De spekulativa köparna av vete fortsätter att lysa med sin frånvaro. Trots att priset gått förhållandevis starkt under 2012 väljer många investerare att undervikta vete, vilket känns rimligt då utbudet av vete i nuläget fortsatt får anses vara omfattande. Vi tycker att man ska vara försiktig med att ta några positioner före WASDE-rapporten på fredag. Men vill man spekulera är vår uppfattning att risken är störst på nedsidan.
  • Teknisk Analys: Studsen från 55dagars bandet kan mycket väl ha avslutat korrektionen. Följer vi tidigare A-B-C mönster borde nästa steg kunna vara ett brott över B-vågens topp, 212, något som i sådan fall skulle indikera ytterligare uppgång emot 245.

Vete - Teknisk analys och prognos den 5 mars 2012

[box]SEB Veckobrev Veckans råvarukommentar är producerat av SEB Merchant Banking och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]

Disclaimer

The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”).

Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.

About SEB

SEB is a public company incorporated in Stockholm, Sweden, with limited liability. It is a participant at major Nordic and other European Regulated Markets and Multilateral Trading Facilities (as well as some non-European equivalent markets) for trading in financial instruments, such as markets operated by NASDAQ OMX, NYSE Euronext, London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Börse, Swiss Exchanges, Turquoise and Chi-X. SEB is authorized and regulated by Finansinspektionen in Sweden; it is authorized and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK, and is subject to the provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where SEB conducts operations. SEB Merchant Banking. All rights reserved.

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Analys

Nat gas to EUA correlation will likely switch to negative in 2026/27 onward

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Historically positive Nat gas to EUA correlation will likely switch to negative in 2026/27 onward

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Historically there has been a strong, positive correlation between EUAs and nat gas prices. That correlation is still fully intact and possibly even stronger than ever as traders increasingly takes this correlation as a given with possible amplification through trading action.

The correlation broke down in 2022 as nat gas prices went ballistic but overall the relationship has been very strong for quite a few years.

The correlation between nat gas and EUAs should be positive as long as there is a dynamical mix of coal and gas in EU power sector and the EUA market is neither too tight nor too weak:

Nat gas price UP  => ”you go black” by using more coal => higher emissions => EUA price UP

But in the future we’ll go beyond the dynamically capacity to flex between nat gas and coal. As the EUA price moves yet higher along with a tightening carbon market the dynamical coal to gas flex will max out. The EUA price will then trade significantly above where this flex technically will occur. There will still be quite a few coal fired power plants running since they are needed for grid stability and supply amid constrained local grids.

As it looks now we still have such overall coal to gas flex in 2024 and partially in 2025, but come 2026 it could be all maxed out. At least if we look at implied pricing on the forward curves where the forward EUA price for 2026 and 2027 are trading way above technical coal to gas differentials. The current forward pricing implications matches well with what we theoretically expect to see as the EUA market gets tighter and marginal abatement moves from the power sector to the industrial sector. The EUA price should then trade up and way above the technical coal to gas differentials. That is also what we see in current forward prices for 2026 and 2027.

The correlation between nat gas and EUAs should then (2026/27 onward) switch from positive to negative. What is left of coal in the power mix will then no longer be dynamically involved versus nat gas and EUAs. The overall power price will then be ruled by EUA prices, nat gas prices and renewable penetration. There will be pockets with high cost power in the geographical points where there are no other alternatives than coal.

The EUA price is an added cost of energy as long as we consume fossil energy. Thus both today and in future years we’ll have the following as long as we consume fossil energy:

EUA price UP => Pain for consumers of energy => lower energy consumption, faster implementation of energy efficiency and renewable energy  => lower emissions 

The whole idea with the EUA price is after all that emissions goes down when the EUA price goes up. Either due to reduced energy consumption directly, accelerated energy efficiency measures or faster switch to renewable energy etc.

Let’s say that the coal to gas flex is maxed out with an EUA price way above the technical coal to gas differentials in 2026/27 and later. If the nat gas price then goes up it will no longer be an option to ”go black” and use more coal as the distance to that is too far away price vise due to a tight carbon market and a high EUA price. We’ll then instead have that:

Nat gas higher => higher energy costs with pain for consumers => weaker nat gas / energy demand & stronger drive for energy efficiency implementation & stronger drive for more non-fossil energy => lower emissions => EUA price lower 

And if nat gas prices goes down it will give an incentive to consume more nat gas and thus emit more CO2:

Cheaper nat gas => Cheaper energy costs altogether, higher energy and nat gas consumption, less energy efficiency implementations in the broader economy => emissions either goes up or falls slower than before => EUA price UP 

Historical and current positive correlation between nat gas and EUA prices should thus not at all be taken for granted for ever and we do expect this correlation to switch to negative some time in 2026/27.

In the UK there is hardly any coal left at all in the power mix. There is thus no option to ”go black” and burn more coal if the nat gas price goes up. A higher nat gas price will instead inflict pain on consumers of energy and lead to lower energy consumption, lower nat gas consumption and lower emissions on the margin. There is still some positive correlation left between nat gas and UKAs but it is very weak and it could relate to correlations between power prices in the UK and the continent as well as some correlations between UKAs and EUAs.

Correlation of daily changes in front month EUA prices and front-year TTF nat gas prices, 250dma correlation.

Correlation of daily changes in front month EUA prices and front-year TTF nat gas prices
Source: SEB graph and calculations, Blbrg data

EUA price vs front-year TTF nat gas price since March 2023

EUA price vs front-year TTF nat gas price since March 2023
Source: SEB graph, Blbrg data

Front-month EUA price vs regression function of EUA price vs. nat gas derived from data from Apr to Nov last year.

Front-month EUA price vs regression function of EUA price vs. nat gas derived from data from Apr to Nov last year.
Source: SEB graph and calculation

The EUA price vs the UKA price. Correlations previously, but not much any more.

The EUA price vs the UKA price. Correlations previously, but not much any more.
Source: SEB graph, Blbrg data

Forward German power prices versus clean cost of coal and clean cost of gas power. Coal is totally priced out vs power and nat gas on a forward 2026/27 basis.

Forward German power prices versus clean cost of coal and clean cost of gas power. Coal is totally priced out vs power and nat gas on a forward 2026/27 basis.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Blbrg data

Forward price of EUAs versus technical level where dynamical coal to gas flex typically takes place. EUA price for 2026/27 is at a level where there is no longer any price dynamical interaction or flex between coal and nat gas. The EUA price should/could then start to be negatively correlated to nat gas.

Forward price of EUAs versus technical level
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Blbrg data

Forward EAU price vs. BNEF base model run (look for new update will come in late April), SEB’s EUA price forecast.

Forward EAU price vs. BNEF base model run
Source: SEB graph and calculations, Blbrg data
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Analys

Fear that retaliations will escalate but hopes that they are fading in magnitude

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crude spikes to USD 90.75/b before falling back as Iran plays it down. Brent crude fell sharply on Wednesday following fairly bearish US oil inventory data and yesterday it fell all the way to USD 86.09/b before a close of USD 87.11/b. Quite close to where Brent traded before the 1 April attack. This morning Brent spiked back up to USD 90.75/b (+4%) on news of Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran. Since then it has quickly fallen back to USD 88.2/b, up only 1.3% vs. ydy close.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

The fear is that we are on an escalating tit-for-tat retaliatory path. Following explosions in Iran this morning the immediate fear was that we now are on a tit-for-tat escalating retaliatory path which in the could end up in an uncontrollable war where the US unwillingly is pulled into an armed conflict with Iran. Iran has however largely diffused this fear as it has played down the whole thing thus signalling that the risk for yet another leg higher in retaliatory strikes from Iran towards Israel appears low.

The hope is that the retaliatory strikes will be fading in magnitude and then fizzle out. What we can hope for is that the current tit-for-tat retaliatory strikes are fading in magnitude rather than rising in magnitude. Yes, Iran may retaliate to what Israel did this morning, but the hope if it does is that it is of fading magnitude rather than escalating magnitude.

Israel is playing with ”US house money”. What is very clear is that neither the US nor Iran want to end up in an armed conflict with each other. The US concern is that it involuntary is dragged backwards into such a conflict if Israel cannot control itself. As one US official put it: ”Israel is playing with (US) house money”. One can only imagine how US diplomatic phone lines currently are running red-hot with frenetic diplomatic efforts to try to defuse the situation.

It will likely go well as neither the US nor Iran wants to end up in a military conflict with each other. The underlying position is that both the US and Iran seems to detest the though of getting involved in a direct military conflict with each other and that the US is doing its utmost to hold back Israel. This is probably going a long way to convince the market that this situation is not going to fully blow up.

The oil market is nonetheless concerned as there is too much oil supply at stake. The oil market is however still naturally concerned and uncomfortable about the whole situation as there is so much oil supply at stake if the situation actually did blow up. Reports of traders buying far out of the money call options is a witness of that.

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Analys

Fundamentals trump geopolitical tensions

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Throughout this week, the Brent Crude price has experienced a decline of USD 3 per barrel, despite ongoing turmoil in the Middle East. Price fluctuations have ranged from highs of USD 91 per barrel at the beginning of the week to lows of USD 87 per barrel as of yesterday evening.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Following the release of yesterday’s US inventory report, Brent Crude once again demonstrated resilience against broader macroeconomic concerns, instead focusing on underlying market fundamentals.

Nevertheless, the recent drop in prices may come as somewhat surprising given the array of conflicting signals observed. Despite an increase in US inventories—a typically bearish indicator—we’ve also witnessed escalating tensions in the Middle East, coupled with the reinstatement of US sanctions on Venezuela. Furthermore, there are indications of impending sanctions on Iran in response to the recent attack on Israel.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has indicated that new sanctions targeting Iran, particularly aimed at restricting its oil exports, could be announced as early as this week. As previously highlighted, we maintain the view that Iran’s oil exports remain vulnerable even without further escalation of the conflict. It appears that Israel is exerting pressure on its ally, the US, to impose stricter sanctions on Iran, an action that is unfolding before our eyes.

Iran’s current oil production stands at close to 3.2 million barrels per day. Considering additional condensate production of about 0.8 million barrels per day and subtracting domestic demand of roughly 1.8 million barrels per day, the net export of Iranian crude and condensate is approximately 2.2 million barrels per day.

However, the uncertainty surrounding the enforcement of such sanctions casts doubt on the likelihood of a complete ending of Iranian exports. Approximately 80% of Iran’s exports are directed to independent refineries in China, suggesting that US sanctions may have limited efficacy unless China complies. The prospect of China resisting US pressure on its oil imports from Iran poses a significant challenge to US sanctions enforcement efforts.

Furthermore, any shortfall resulting from sanctions could potentially be offset by other OPEC nations with spare capacity. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, for instance, can collectively produce an additional almost 3 million barrels of oil per day, although this remains a contingency measure.

In addition to developments related to Iran, the Biden administration has re-imposed restrictions on Venezuelan oil, marking the end of a six-month reprieve. This move is expected to impact flows from the South American nation.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories (excluding SPR holdings) surged by 2.7 million barrels last week (page 11 attached), reaching their highest level since June of last year. This increase coincided with a decline in measures of fuel demand (page 14 attached), underscoring a slightly weaker US market.

In summary, while geopolitical tensions persist and new rounds of sanctions are imposed, our market outlook remains intact. We maintain our forecast of an average Brent Crude price of USD 85 per barrel for the year 2024. In the short term, however, prices are expected to hover around the USD 90 per barrel mark as they navigate through geopolitical uncertainties and fundamental factors.

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