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SEB – Jordbruksprodukter, vecka 6 2012

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SEB Veckobrev Jordbruksprodukter - AnalysVi har hållit på skrivandet och utskicket av det här veckobrevet för att få med intrycken av WASDE-rapporten som släpptes av USDA klockan 14:30 igår torsdag. Rapporten, vars siffror nog förefaller vara övermåttan försiktigt justerade med anledning av torkan i Argentina, togs emot med något av en axelryckning av marknaden, men med tydliga prisnedgångar för alla grödor, mest för vete, där utgående lager justerades upp.

NOAA rapporterar i sin senaste synopsis att La Niña torde övergå till ”neutrala” ENSO-förållanden under perioden mars till maj 2012. Detta skulle betyda att hotet mot torka för norra halvklotets skörd kraftigt har minskat. Detta är klart negativ information för marknaderna för majs, vete, sojabönor och raps.

Vete

Terminspriset på Matif-vete (november) föll kraftigt till 193.50 euro / ton efter WASDE-rapporten

Prisutveckling på vete (mill wheat euro) under 2011 och 2012

Marknadens oro över ett ryskt exportförbud har kvarstått under veckan och de blandade budskap som kommit från Rysslands regering har orsakat en viss förvirring.

Rysslands premiärminister Viktor Zubkov sa att med tanke på att spannmålsskörden reviderats till 93,9 miljoner ton så har prognosen för spannmålsexporten 2011/12 höjts till 27 miljoner ton och att det därmed inte skulle finnas något behov av att införa restriktioner, vilket hade diskuterats till följd av den höga exporttakt som har rått.

SEB Veckobrev - Jordbruksprognoser den 10 februari 2012Det uttalandet kom strax efter att regeringskällor sa att Zubkov inte skulle meddela något beslut under fredagen och det i sin tur kom efter att vice premiärministern inte kunde uttala sig i frågan under torsdagen som tidigare angivits. De dubbla budskapen började dock redan på tisdagen då den biträdande jordbruksministern sade att ett beslut om export restriktioner skulle tas i mitten på februari, för att sedan skifta till att Zubkov skulle meddela beslutet under torsdagen.

Den snabba exporttakten av Rysslands spannmål har varit regerings främsta orosmoln genom att den skulle kunna driva upp de inhemska priserna kraftigt med en ökad matinflation och högre kostnader för animalie producenter som följd. Men eftersom spannmålen för export från gårdar och silos i närheten av hamnarna vid Svarta havet börjar sina så tvingas handlarna att se sig om efter spannmål längre in i landet vilket innebär långväga transporter på landets järnvägsnät som också bidrar till högre kostnader.

Det kalla vädret har också varit en bidragande faktor till oro. I Ryssland verkar dock snötäcket skydda de flesta grödor medan det kalla vädret i Svarta havsområdet kan komma att orsaka skador på framförallt korn och raps. Trots det kalla vädret i Europa så är påverkan av rapsgrödorna i Tyskland och Frankrike dock mindre oroande. I Ukraina är problemen desto större med effekten av kylan på de grödor som redan har drabbats av en oerhört torr höst och där vissa delar av landet har fått mycket snö, på sina ställen upp till 50 cm, medan andra delar av landet helt saknar snötäcke grödorna därmed exponeras för den extrema kylan. Med en mild höst och en ”varm vinter” kan det hända att grödorna blir något mindre vinterhärdiga än förväntat men det verkar dock som att de flesta europeiska länder har fått ett skyddande snötäcke mot kylan, även om det på vissa ställen vore önskvärt med ett större snödjup. Ännu är det dock för tidigt att sia om eventuella konsekvenser. Nedan ser vi WASDE-rapportens estimat för global veteproduktion.

Sammanställning över veteproduktion år 2009, 2010, 2011 och 2012

Indien, Kazakstan och Marocko har justerat upp sina produktionsestimat, vilket slår igenom i en högre global produktion.

Vetelager (world wheat end stocks) år 2009, 2010, 2011 och 2012

På konsumtionssidan är det främst Indien, som beräknas konsumera 1.6 mt mindre än i januari. Konsumtionen i EU och resten av världen är oförändrad, trots ett mycket högre pris än förra månaden. Men summa summarum – vi har trots allt ett högre utgående lager av vete än förra månaden.

Vi vet sedan tidigare att USDA har en tendens att fortsätta med justeringar ”åt samma håll”. Vi kan alltså förvänta oss högre uppjusteringarna av utgående lager att fortsätta, månad för månad, i WASDE-rapporterna och detta bör understödja en trend av sjunkande priser på vete. Nedan ser vi kursdiagrammet på decemberkontraktet på CBOT.

Terminskurva för vete (wheat future) för december 2012-terminen

Maltkorn

Maltkornsmarknaden har behållit sin styrka relativt andra spannmål med novemberleverans på Matif på 250 euro per ton.

Prisutveckling på maltkorn - Diagram för 2011 och början av 2012

Potatis

Nedan ser vi kursdiagrammet på europeisk potatis, som handlas på Eurex; terminen avser leverans april 2013.

Europeisk potatis (euro potato) - Prisutveckling termin april 2013 på Eurex

Majs

Majspriset föll något lite när börsen öppnade efter USDA-rapporten, som vi ser i kursdiagrammet för decemberkontraktet nedan:

Corn future (termin på majs) - Kursdiagram för december 2012-terminen

WASDE-rapporten visade dock på lägre produktion och lägre – rekordlåga utgående lager.

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WASDE - Produktion av majs - 2009, 2010, 2011 och 2012

USDA justerade ner skörden i Argentina i spåren av torkan, från 26 mt till 22 mt. 22 mt ligger på den högsta nivån som vi sett inhemska Argentinska prognosmakare förutspå, som ligger i intervallet 18 – 22 mt. Produktionen skulle alltså ha kunnat minska med 8 mt istället för de 4 mt som USDA förutspår nu i sin februarirapport. USDA gör ingen justering för Brasiliens skörd, vilket stämmer någorlunda bra med vädret där.

Lager av majs (corn) - WASDE-rapporten för 2009, 2010, 2011 och 2012

USA:s utgående lager som anges i WASDE:n ligger på den lägsta nivån sedan 1975/76 och utgående lager på global basis i förhållande till konsumtion ligger på 1973 års nivå, som vi ser i nedanstående diagram.

Graf från USDA över lager av majs

Med ett förmodligen större bortfall från produktion och export från Argentina, måste detta kompenseras med lägre lager i USA. Det kan alltså bli ett riktigt lågt utgående lager i USA – och på global basis.

Å andra sidan väntas amerikanska bönder välja att så majs på bekostnad av sojabönor i vår. Ett högre pris på majs skulle öka denna tendens.

Sojabönor

Priset på sojabönor föll efter WASDE-rapporten i linje med de andra grödorna. Tekniskt är situationen intressant. Det finns de, bland annat SEB:s tekniska analytiker, som pekar på att det sedan september bildats en omvänd ”head-and-shoulders” formation, där ”nacklinjen” (grön linje) bröts i månadsskiftet januari – februari. Den skulle signalera en förestående potentiell prisuppgång till 1400 cent / bushel. Prisuppgången har dock stoppats av motståndet som utgörs av toppen som noterades i slutet av oktober. Skulle vi få en uppgång över 1267 får vi anse att vi har en teknisk köpsignal.

Soybean future - Diagram över prisutveckling på sojabönor år 2011 och 2012

Nedan ser vi USDA:s produktionsestimat från WASDE-rapporten igår.

Soybean - Världsproduktion av sojabönor år 2009, 2010, 2011 och 2012

Argentinas och Brasiliens skörd sänks med 2.5 mt respektive 2 mt i spåren av torkan. Bland ”Others” hittar vi Paraguay och Uruguay och de justeras ner 1 mt också.

Soybean - Lager av sojabönor år 2009, 2010, 2011 och 2012

Utgående lager sänks 3 mt. Argentinas skörd ligger i det övre intervallet av inhemska skördeestimat. Det känns som om man tagit i lite i underkant i justeringen och det är vanligt att USDA gör så. Vi kan alltså vänta oss att det ligger ytterligare en nedjustering sparad till nästa månad.

Vi är negativa ur tekniskt perspektiv de närmaste tre månaderna.

Raps

Priset på raps har gått starkt och hejdats på 430, uppenbarligen ett motstånd. Prisuppgången dit är ungefär lika lång från 410 – botten på rekylen i uppgången från 390. Det är 20 euro i båda rusningarna uppåt. Det är vanligt att man ser den typen av rörelser, där det är lika långt från ”halvvägskonsolideringen” uppåt som nedåt. Detta skulle indikera att den kortsiktiga uppgången är över. Vid 440 finns ett större motstånd, där priset vände ner i maj-juni förra året. Detta är alltså ett högt pris i ett historiskt perspektiv och säljvärt, tror vi.

Raps (IJX2) - Diagram över prisutveckling för terminer

Mjölk

Nedan ser vi priset på marskontraktet på flytande mjölk (kontakt avräknat mot USDA:s prisindex). Priset har som vi ser fallit kraftigt i februari. Marknaden är ”översåld” och ”borde” få en kortsiktig rekyl uppåt den närmaste veckan.

Milk future - Prognos över prisutveckling på mjölk - Februari 2012

Gris

Priset på lean hogs har segat sig uppåt och befinner sig nu återigen i sälj-området. Nedan ser vi terminspriset för leverans i maj.

Gris (lean hogs) - Prognos på pris - Analys februari 2012

Valutor

EURSEK som fanns stöd på 8.80 kr och steg till 8.90 har vänt ner igen och ska sannolikt testa 8.80 igen.

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Valutadiagram för EUR SEK den 9 februari 2012

EURUSD har vänt upp och har precis lämnat en konsolidering – kanske halvvägs på väg upp mot 1.35 dollar.

Valutadiagram för EUR USD den 9 februari 2012

USDSEK har fallit av och tycks vara på väg nedåt.

Valutadiagram för USD SEK (x-rate) den 9 februari 2012

[box]SEB Veckobrev Jordbruksprodukter är producerat av SEB Merchant Banking och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]

Disclaimer

The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”).

Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.

About SEB

SEB is a public company incorporated in Stockholm, Sweden, with limited liability. It is a participant at major Nordic and other European Regulated Markets and Multilateral Trading Facilities (as well as some non-European equivalent markets) for trading in financial instruments, such as markets operated by NASDAQ OMX, NYSE Euronext, London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Börse, Swiss Exchanges, Turquoise and Chi-X. SEB is authorized and regulated by Finansinspektionen in Sweden; it is authorized and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK, and is subject to the provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where SEB conducts operations. SEB Merchant Banking. All rights reserved.

Analys

Very relaxed at USD 75/b. Risk barometer will likely fluctuate to higher levels with Brent into the 80ies or higher coming 2-3 weeks

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Brent rallied 12% last week. But closed the week below USD 75/b and it is still there. Very relaxed. Brent crude rallied 12% to USD 78.5/b in the early hours of Friday as Israel attacked Iran. The highest level since 27 January this year. The level didn’t hold and Brent closed the day at USD 74.23/b which was up 5.7% on the day and 11.7% on the week. On Friday it was still very unclear how extensive and lasting this war between Iran and Israel would be. Energy assets in Iran had still not been touched and Iran had not targeted other Middle East countries’ energy assets or US military bases in the region. As such, the Brent crude closed the week comfortably at around USD 75/b. Which one cannot argue is very much of a stressed price level. 

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Israel is targeting Iran’s domestic energy infrastructure. Not its energy export facilities. For now. Over the weekend Israel has widened its targets to include fuel depots in Tehran, refineries supplying Iran domestically and also a processing plant at Iran’s South Pars gas field – the world’s largest. So far it appears that Israel has refrained from hurting Iranian oil and gas export facilities. Maybe adhering to Trump’s whish of low oil prices. Trump has been begging for a lower oil price. Would be very frustrating for him if Israel started to blow up Iran’s export facilities. Focus instead looks to be on Iran’s domestic energy supply and infrastructure. To weaken and disable the operations of Iran as a country while leaving Iran’s energy export facilities intact for now at least. That is probably why Brent crude this morning is only trading at USD 74.9/b with little change from Friday. An incredible relaxed price level given what is going on in the Middle East. 

Israel seems to try to do to Iran what Israel recently did to Lebanon. Israel now seems to have close to total control of the Iranian air space. So called ”Air Supremacy” something which is rarely achieved according to Phillips P. O’Brian (see comment on this below with link). This is giving Israel close to total freedom in the airspace over Iran. Israel now seems to try to do to Iran what Israel recently did to Lebanon. Take out military and political commanders. Take out the air defenses. Then grind the rest of its defensive capacities to the ground over some time.

Continuous pressure. No rest. No letting up for several weeks seems likely. The current situation is a very rare opportunity for Israel to attack Iran with full force. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian strongholds in Syria, are all severely weakened or disabled. And now also Air Supremacy of the airspace over Iran. It is natural to assume that Israel will not let this opportunity pass. As such it will likely continue with full force over several weeks to come, at least, with Israel grinding down the rest of Iran’s defensive capabilities and domestic energy supply facilities as far as possible. Continuous pressure. No rest. No letting up.

What to do with Fordow? Will Iran jump to weapons grade uranium? The big question is of course Iran’s nuclear facilities. Natanz with 16,000 enrichment centrifuges was destroyed by Israel on Friday. It was only maximum 20 meters below ground. It was where Iran had mass enrichment to low enrichment levels. Fordow is a completely different thing. It is 500 meters deep under a mountain. It is where enrichment towards weapons grade Uranium takes place. Iran today has 408 kg of highly enriched uranium (IAEA) which can be enriched to weapons grade. It is assumed that Iran will only need 2-3 days to make 25 kg of weapons grade uranium and three weeks to make enough for 9 nuclear warheads. How Israel decides to deal with Fordow is the big question. Ground forces? Help from the US?

Also, if Iran is pushed to the end of the line, then it might decide to enrich to weapons grade which again will lead to a cascade of consequences.

Brent is extremely relaxed at USD 75/b. But at times over coming 2-3 weeks the risk barometer will likely move higher with Brent moving into the 80ies or higher. The oil price today is extremely relaxed with the whole thing. Lots of OPEC+ spare capacity allows loss of Iranian oil exports. Israeli focus on Iran’s domestic energy systems rather than on its exports facilities is also soothing the market. But at times over the coming two, three weeks the risk barometer will likely move significantly higher as it might seem like the situation in the Middle East may move out of control. So Brent into the 80ies or higher seems highly likely in the weeks to come. At times at least. And if it all falls apart, the oil price will of course move well above 100.

Phillips P. OBrien on ”Air Supremacy” (embedded link): Air power historian Philip Meilinger: ”Air Superiority is defined as being able to conduct air operations “without prohibitive interference by the opposing force.” Air Supremacy goes further, wherein the opposing air force is incapable of effective interference.”

Thus, air supremacy is an entirely different beast from air superiority. It occurs when one power basically controls the skies over an enemy, and can operate practically anywhere/time that it wants without much fear of enemy interference in its operations.

The US had Air Supremacy over Germany in the second World War, but only at the very end when it was close to over. It only had Air Superiority in the Vietnam war, but not Supremacy. During Desert Storm in 1990-1991 however it did have Supremacy with devastating consequences for the enemy. (last paragraph is a condensed summary).

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Analys

Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b to make cheating unprofitable for Kazakhstan

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Brent jumping 2.4% as OPEC+ lifts quota by ”only” 411 kb/d in July. Brent crude is jumping 2.4% this morning to USD 64.3/b following the decision by OPEC+ this weekend to lift the production cap of ”Voluntary 8” (V8) by 411 kb/d in July and not more as was feared going into the weekend. The motivation for the triple hikes of 411 kb/d in May and June and now also in July has been a bit unclear: 1) Cheating by Kazakhstan and Iraq, 2) Muhammed bin Salman listening to Donald Trump for more oil and a lower oil price in exchange for weapons deals and political alignments in the Middle East and lastly 3) Higher supply to meet higher demand for oil this summer. The argument that they are taking back market share was already decided in the original plan of unwinding the 2.2 mb/d of V8 voluntary cuts by the end of 2026. The surprise has been the unexpected speed with monthly increases of 3×137 kb/d/mth rather than just 137 kb/d monthly steps.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

No surplus yet. Time-spreads tightened last week. US inventories fell the week before last. In support of point 3) above it is worth noting that the Brent crude oil front-end backwardation strengthened last week (sign of tightness) even when the market was fearing for a production hike of more than 411 kb/d for July. US crude, diesel and gasoline stocks fell the week before last with overall commercial stocks falling 0.7 mb versus a normal rise this time of year of 3-6 mb per week. So surplus is not here yet. And more oil from OPEC+ is welcomed by consumers.

Saudi Arabia calling the shots with Russia objecting. This weekend however we got to know a little bit more. Saudi Arabia was predominantly calling the shots and decided the outcome. Russia together with Oman and Algeria opposed the hike in July and instead argued for zero increase. What this alures to in our view is that it is probably the cheating by Kazakhstan and Iraq which is at the heart of the unexpectedly fast monthly increases. Saudi Arabia cannot allow it to be profitable for the individual members to cheat. And especially so when Kazakhstan explicitly and blatantly rejects its quota obligation stating that they have no plans of cutting production from 1.77 mb/d to 1.47 mb/d. And when not even Russia is able to whip Kazakhstan into line, then the whole V8 project is kind of over.

Is it simply a decision by Saudi Arabia to unwind faster altogether? What is still puzzling though is that despite the three monthly hikes of 411 kb/d, the revival of the 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts is still kind of orderly. Saudi Arabia could have just abandoned the whole V8 project from one month to the next. But we have seen no explicit communication that the plan of reviving the cuts by the end of 2026 has been abandoned. It may be that it is simply a general change of mind by Saudi Arabia where the new view is that production cuts altogether needs to be unwinded sooner rather than later. For Saudi Arabia it means getting its production back up to 10 mb/d. That implies first unwinding the 2.2 mb/d and then the next 1.6 mb/d.

Brent would likely crash with a fast unwind of 2.2 + 1.6 mb/d by year end. If Saudi Arabia has decided on a fast unwind it would meant that the group would lift the quotas by 411 kb/d both in August and in September. It would then basically be done with the 2.2 mb/d revival. Thereafter directly embark on reviving the remaining 1.6 mb/d. That would imply a very sad end of the year for the oil price. It would then probably crash in Q4-25. But it is far from clear that this is where we are heading.

Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b or lower to make it unprofitable for Kazakhstan to cheat. To make it unprofitable for Kazakhstan to cheat. Kazakhstan is currently producing 1.77 mb/d versus its quota which before the hikes stood at 1.47 kb/d. If they had cut back to the quota level they might have gotten USD 70/b or USD 103/day. Instead they choose to keep production at 1.77 mb/d. For Saudi Arabia to make it a loss-making business for Kazakhstan to cheat the oil price needs to fall below USD 58/b ( 103/1.77).

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All eyes on OPEC V8 and their July quota decision on Saturday

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Tariffs or no tariffs played ping pong with Brent crude yesterday. Brent crude traded to a joyous high of USD 66.13/b yesterday as a US court rejected Trump’s tariffs. Though that ruling was later overturned again with Brent closing down 1.2% on the day to USD 64.15/b. 

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

US commercial oil inventories fell 0.7 mb last week versus a seasonal normal rise of 3-6 mb. US commercial crude and product stocks fell 0.7 mb last week which is fairly bullish since the seasonal normal is for a rise of  4.3 mb. US crude stocks fell 2.8 mb, Distillates fell 0.7 mb and Gasoline stocks fell 2.4 mb.

All eyes are now on OPEC V8 (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Algeria, Russia, Oman, Kazakhstan) which will make a decision tomorrow on what to do with production for July. Overall they are in a process of placing 2.2 mb/d of cuts back into the market over a period stretching out to December 2026. Following an expected hike of 137 kb/d in April they surprised the market by lifting production targets by 411 kb/d for May and then an additional 411 kb/d again for June. It is widely expected that the group will decide to lift production targets by another 411 kb/d also for July. That is probably mostly priced in the market. As such it will probably not have all that much of a bearish bearish price impact on Monday if they do.

It is still a bit unclear what is going on and why they are lifting production so rapidly rather than at a very gradual pace towards the end of 2026. One argument is that the oil is needed in the market as Middle East demand rises sharply in summertime. Another is that the group is partially listening to Donald Trump which has called for more oil and a lower price. The last is that Saudi Arabia is angry with Kazakhstan which has produced 300 kb/d more than its quota with no indications that they will adhere to their quota.

So far we have heard no explicit signal from the group that they have abandoned the plan of measured increases with monthly assessments so that the 2.2 mb/d is fully back in the market by the end of 2026. If the V8 group continues to lift quotas by 411 kb/d every month they will have revived the production by the full 2.2 mb/d already in September this year. There are clearly some expectations in the market that this is indeed what they actually will do. But this is far from given. Thus any verbal wrapping around the decision for July quotas on Saturday will be very important and can have a significant impact on the oil price. So far they have been tightlipped beyond what they will do beyond the month in question and have said nothing about abandoning the ”gradually towards the end of 2026” plan. It is thus a good chance that they will ease back on the hikes come August, maybe do no changes for a couple of months or even cut the quotas back a little if needed.

Significant OPEC+ spare capacity will be placed back into the market over the coming 1-2 years. What we do know though is that OPEC+ as a whole as well as the V8 subgroup specifically have significant spare capacity at hand which will be placed back into the market over the coming year or two or three. Probably an increase of around 3.0 – 3.5 mb/d. There is only two ways to get it back into the market. The oil price must be sufficiently low so that 1) Demand growth is stronger and 2) US shale oil backs off. In combo allowing the spare capacity back into the market.

Low global inventories stands ready to soak up 200-300 mb of oil. What will cushion the downside for the oil price for a while over the coming year is that current, global oil inventories are low and stand ready to soak up surplus production to the tune of 200-300 mb.

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