Analys
SEB Jordbruksprodukter, 29 april 2013

Sådden av majs i USA har inte kunnat ske på grund av den sena våren. Deadline, som anses vara den 10 maj närmar sig. Väderleksprognosen visar dock ett ”fönster” av gott väder, där sådden kan ske innan dess. De närmaste dagarnas väderutveckling kommer att ha ett avgörande inflytande över prisutvecklingen. Den kinesiska fågelinfluensan har sänkt konsumtionen av kyckling med upp till 80%. Det sänker efterfrågan på sojabönor i världen. Vi tror alltjämt på sjunkande priser på alla jordbruksprodukter. Grispriset i USA testar dock tekniska motståndsnivåer, möjligen just beroende på fågelinfluensan i Kina.
Odlingsväder
USA och Kanada var fortsatt kallare än normalt i veckan som gick. Prognosen för de kommande 7 dagarna är att detta ska bestå. Därefter för dag 7 till 14 väntas varmare väder, i synnerhet i Kanada.
I ett område från Tyskland och österut har varit varmare än normalt den senaste veckan. Prognosen för de närmaste 7 dagarna är normal temperatur i centrala och norra Europa. Däremot väntas det bli varmare än normalt i Italien, på Balkan och i Stillahavsområdet.
I Australien är det fortsatt väldigt torrt inför sådden som börjar snart.
MARS
Enligt den senaste rapporten från EU-kommissionens MARS-enhet så har den kyliga starten på våren i Europa, som har fått Mars månad att noteras som en av de kallaste någonsin, orsakat en kraftig försening – mer än en månad – gällande höstgrödornas utveckling, och dessutom försenat vårsådden (med undantag av Medelhavsområdet och runt Svarta Havet). Förseningar är särskilt tydliga i Storbritannien, men även i Tyskland och Frankrike. Trots detta gör de inga justeringar i sitt estimat för avkastning med motiveringen att det är för tidigt att uttala sig om en avkastning under genomsnittet.
Vete
Priset på november (2013) har hållit sig över 210 euro, som nu återigen fungerar som ett tekniskt stöd. Frågan är om priset ska bryta uppåt och testa 230.
Decemberkontraktet på CBOT ser mindre ”bullish” ut än grafen för Matif-vetet. Så som Chicagovetet handlats förefaller ett test av 700 cent på nedsidan vara troligare.
I onsdags drabbades Oklahoma av frost och det fick priset att gå upp temporärt.
Ser vi på den senaste veckan förändring av terminskurvorna, ser vi att priserna gått ner både i Europa och i USA och ungefär lika mycket oavsett löptid, undantaget gammal skörd. Weetabix har slutat producera vissa frukostflingor i väntan på ny skörd. Det saknas helt enkelt brittiskt vete av gammal skörd.
Måndagens crop condition-rapport ser vi i sammanfattning nedan.
Måndagens Crop Progress rapport från USDA visar att tillståndet för det amerikanska höstvetet har försämrats något. Sammantaget för de 18 största höstvete producerande så var 35% klassat som ”good/excellent” per den 21 januari, en marginell nedjustering från förra veckans 36%. Höstvete klassat som ”poor/very poor” justeras upp till 33% från förra veckans 31% och är en kategori som har ökat i bl.a Kansas och Colorado, men som har minskat kraftigt i South Dakota, Nebraska och Texas – även om klassificeringen ”good/excellent” i dessa stater fortfarande är urusla.
Sådden av vårvete gör minimala framsteg då endast 7% är avklarad i de 6 största staterna, vilket är en marginell ökning från förra veckans 6% och att jämföra med 52% för ett år sedan och det femåriga genomsnittet på 24%. Kallt väder och även snö har hindrat fältaktiviteter i vissa delar och hos topproducenten North Dakota har man ännu inte påbörjat sådden.
Ett tredje tecken på att skörden ligger efter i år är att bara 8% av höstvetet har gått i ax. Förra året den här tiden var det 42%.
StatsCanada skriver den 24 april att vårvetearealen ökar 14.4% till 19.4 miljoner acres. Det var mycket mer än marknaden väntat sig. Durum-arealen väntas också öka för tredje året i rad till 5.1 miljoner acres. I USDA:s prospective plantingsrapport för en månad sedan visades en minskning av arealen. Kanadensarna går alltså åt andra hållet.
Vi fortsätter att tro på sidledes eller lägre priser. Uppgångar bör ses som tillfällen att sälja.
Maltkorn
Priset på maltkorn med leverans i november har fortsatt att visa mer styrka än höstvetet / kvarnvetet på Matif.
StatsCanada rapporterar en korn-areal som är 2.2% mindre än förra året. Havrearealen ökar med 18.4%.
Lokala estimat pekar på väsentligt lägre sådd av maltkorn i Tyskland. På grund av den kalla och våta våren väntas arealen uppgå till 360,000 ha. Det är 40% mindre än förra året. Tyskland är EU:s största konsument av maltkorn och landet väntas behöva öka importen till 1 mt under 2013/14. Evergrain, den schweiziska mäklaren, estimerar Tysklands import i år (2012/13) till 265,000 ton.
Sådden av korn i USA ligger i linje med vad som är normalt. Tvärt emot vad som rapporterats på t ex Agrimoney. 23% är sått. Det var 43% förra året så här års, men 24% är det normala.
Det finns viss ”uppsidesrisk” för maltkornspriset med tanke på Kanadas och Tysklands mindre väntade skördar. Den senaste utvecklingen vi skriver om ovan, kan vi inte riktigt se fullt ut i starkare prisutveckling på maltkorn jämfört med vete.
Majs
Majspriset (december 2013) bröt stödet på 530 cent, rekylerade upp och slutade veckan nedåt igen. Trenden är stadigt nedåtriktad.
Sådden ligger kraftigt efter i USA. Den 19 april var endast 4% sått. Förra året var det 28% och det tidiga året 2010 var det 50%. En åkerareal stor som Belgien och Holland tillsammans borde ha varit sådd, men har inte blivit det på grund av det kalla vädret. Sådden har ännu inte börjats i den största producerande staten, Iowa, och inte heller i Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota eller i Wisconsin. I Illinois, Indiana och Ohio är sådden endast avklarad till 1%.
Nedan ser vi såddens framåtskridande i USA. 6-årsintervallet sträcker sig från 2007 till 2012.
Utvecklingen sker exakt lika långsamt som år 2008, ett år där priserna trots allt föll kraftigt. På grund av att vädret i veckan inte varit perfekt, kan man inte vänta sig att sådden kommit upp till mer än 6-10% nu i rapporten som kommer på måndagskvällen. Därefter väntas, som vi såg ovan under ”odlingsväder” bättre väder komma, vilket ger ett tillfälle att så. Sås majsen för sent, den 10 maj betraktas som en slags deadline, får varje försening en negativ effekt på avkastningen. De närmaste dagarnas väder är alltså avgörande för priset.
Väderleksrapporten säger att det kommer att gå bra. Därför tror vi alltjämt på fallande priser.
Sojabönor
Sojabönorna (november 2013) ligger i en stadigt sjunkande pristrend. Amerikans sådd av soja har inte kommit igång alls. Förra året var 6% sått redan. Den kinesiska fågelinfluensan har ökat i nyhetsflödet och det fjäderfä i Kina är närmast osäljbart vad vi kan förstå från nyhetsrapporteringen.
Den argentinska skörden är 56% klar, men bönderna håller inne med sin vara. BAGE estimerar skörden till 48.5 mt (USDA har den senat på 51.5 mt). Den argentinska staten har just klubbat igenom lagar som reducerar möjligheten för företag och privatpersoner att värna sin egendom gentemot staten.
Statsinkomsterna kommer till stor del från exportskatter på soja. Den argentinska peson handlas på gatan till halva den officiella växlingskursen. Presidentens socialistiska och värdenihilistiska politik ser ut att föra landet mot en mörk framtid.
Väderutvecklingen i USA och dämpad efterfrågan från Kina gör att vi tror att priset kommer att fortsätta falla och rekommenderar en såld position i sojabönor. 1150 cent är nästa målkurs.
Raps
Rapspriset (november 2013) ligger kvar på någorlunda hög nivå. En anledning är att skörden i Europa väntas bli ca 1 månad senare än normalt.
Förra veckan skrev vi om ”spreaden” mellan augustikontraktet och novemberkontraktet. Den prisskillnaden ligger fortsatt på en onormal nivå, som indikerar att många väntar sig ett högre pris på augusti (som för gammal skörd) än ny-skörds-kontraktet november. Vi tror att vädret kommer att fortsätta förbättras, så att augusti är säljvärt.
StatsCanada rapporterade i onsdags den 24 april att kanadensiska lantbrukare kommer att så 19.1 miljoner acres med canola. Det är 11% mindre än förra året och den första minskningen sedan 2006.
Det är ändå svårt att se att rapsmarknaden ska hålla sig så stark, medan priset på sojabönor faller. Vi fortsätter att rekommendera en såld position i raps. Den börjar dessutom bygga upp fallhöjd om och när ett brott av den tekniska stödnivån inträffar.
Gris
Grispriset (September 13) testar nu den nedåtgående trenden. Beroende på hur marknaden går i veckan, kan vi få en köpsignal från den tekniska analysen.
Mjölk
Eurexmarknaden gick ner i veckan som gick – på de korta kontrakten. De långa steg däremot både på SMP och smör.
I kursdiagrammet nedan ser vi priserna på Fonterras SMP, USDA:s prisnotering på SMP i Europa och Eurexbörsens pris, samt Eurex pris på smör. Alla priser är angivna i euro per ton.
Nedan ser vi terminskurvorna för smör och skummjölkspulver på Eurex i fredags vid börsens stängning och veckan innan.
SEB Commodities erbjuder ett litet ”prova-på” kontrakt som består av 0.5 ton Eurex-smör och 0.9 ton Eurex SMP. Ett paket som motsvarar 10 ton flytande mjölkråvara. Just nu är det underliggande värdet på ett sådant kontrakt drygt 33 000 kronor. Vi garanterar börspris eller bättre.
Den som vill följa priset på SMP på Eurex gör det via länken:
www.eurexchange.com/exchange-en/products/com/agr/14016/
Vi tycker att den här haussen på världsmarknaden skapar ett bra tillfälle att säkra via terminer.
[box]SEB Veckobrev Jordbruksprodukter är producerat av SEB Merchant Banking och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]
Disclaimer
The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”).
Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.
About SEB
SEB is a public company incorporated in Stockholm, Sweden, with limited liability. It is a participant at major Nordic and other European Regulated Markets and Multilateral Trading Facilities (as well as some non-European equivalent markets) for trading in financial instruments, such as markets operated by NASDAQ OMX, NYSE Euronext, London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Börse, Swiss Exchanges, Turquoise and Chi-X. SEB is authorized and regulated by Finansinspektionen in Sweden; it is authorized and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK, and is subject to the provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where SEB conducts operations. SEB Merchant Banking. All rights reserved.
Analys
How renewable fuels are accelerating the decarbonisation of transport

On 16 November 2022, UK’s Royal Air Force (RAF) Voyager aircraft, the military variant of the Airbus A330, took to the skies for 90 minutes over Oxfordshire. What looked like a routine test flight in its outward appearance was ultimately deemed ground-breaking. Why? It was a world-first military transporter aircraft flight, and the first of any aircraft type in the UK to be completed using 100% sustainable jet fuel.

What are renewable fuels?
Renewable hydrocarbon biofuels (also called green or drop-in biofuels) are fuels produced from biomass sources through a variety of biological, thermal, and chemical processes. These products are chemically identical to petroleum gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel.
In other words, renewable fuels are sources of energy chemically identical to fossil fuels but produced from domestic, commercial, or agricultural waste (see Figure 1 below).
Figure 1: Converting waste into energy

Why the excitement?
Renewable fuels, like renewable diesel and sustainable jet fuel, can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by around 80-90% compared to fossil fuels. And because they burn much cleaner, engine filters remain cleaner for longer reducing the need for maintenance. Furthermore, given used cooking oil, vegetable oil, processing waste, and animal fat waste are used as inputs, the production of these fuels reduces biowaste, thereby cutting emissions from landfills.
This makes renewable fuels a key component of the circular economy. Humans have largely operated on the linear model historically when it comes to utilising natural resources. The circular model, in contrast, is much less wasteful and seeks to recycle as much as possible (see Figure 2 below).
Figure 2: The Circular Economy

The most exciting thing about renewable fuels is the immediacy with which they can make an impact. The reason why they are referred to as drop-in fuels is that they can replace fossil fuels in internal combustion engines with little or no modification required. So, if supply was abundant enough, forms of transport which cannot be electrified easily like heavy duty trucks, ships, and aeroplanes can be switched across to renewable fuels making a significant improvement to the environmental footprint. According to BP, “A return flight between London and San Francisco has a carbon footprint per economy ticket of nearly 1 tonne of CO2 equivalent. With the aviation industry expected to double to over 8 billion passengers by 2050, it is essential that we act to reduce aviation’s carbon emissions.”
The challenge
Renewable fuels or biofuels are still in their infancy. This means the obvious hurdle to overcome is cost competitiveness with fossil fuels. Cost estimates vary, but figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) provide a useful sense for the ballpark. In May 2022, IATA stated that the average worldwide price of jet fuel is about $4.15 per gallon compared to the US average price of a gallon of sustainable aviation fuel, which is about $8.67.
So, roughly double the price of the incumbent polluting technology. This is not a bad starting point at all. Considering how rapidly the cost of energy storage in batteries has fallen in the last decade, renewable fuels could become competitive quite soon if sufficient investment is made and economies of scale are achieved. IATA also predicts that renewable fuels could make up 2% of all aviation fuels by 2025, which could become a tipping point in their competitiveness.
Businesses are acting
Businesses pursuing their own net zero targets have already started exploring renewable fuels to minimise their waste. Darling Ingredients Inc, which produces its trademark Diamond Green Diesel from recycled animal fats, inedible corn oil, and used cooking oil, was chosen by fast food chain Chick-fil-A in March 2022 to turn its used cooking oil into clean transportation fuel.
Similarly, McDonald’s entered into a partnership with Neste Corporation in 2020 to convert its used vegetable oil into renewable diesel and fuel the trucks that make deliveries to its restaurants. According to TortoiseEcofin, both Darling Ingredients and Neste have a net negative carbon footprint given emissions produced by these businesses are lower that the emissions avoided because of their renewable fuels.
A final word
Renewable fuels alone will not tackle climate change. No single solution can. But they can help us make meaningful progress. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasises how crucial it is for the world to halve its greenhouse gas emissions this decade to at least have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5oC. This means that solutions with an immediate effect have an important role to play. Biofuels can cut emissions from waste in landfills and provide much cleaner alternatives to fossil fuels to help accelerate the world’s decarbonisation efforts. They don’t require different engines to be of use. They just need funding to reach scale.
Mobeen Tahir, Director, Macroeconomic Research & Tactical Solutions, WisdomTree
Analys
SEB Metals Weekly: China Covid exit is bullish for metals

China Covid exit is bullish for metals
Softer inflation, slight macro-optimism, and China taking a rapid exit from Covid restrictions. Markets have become more optimistic. Inflation indices have eased and that has created some hopes that central banks won’t lift interest to a level that will kill the economy in 2023. Natural gas prices in Europe have fallen sharply. This has suddenly reduced energy-inflationary pressure and removed the direst downside economic risks for the region. But general market optimism is far from super-strong yet. The S&P 500 index has only gained 1.9% since our previous forecast on 1 Nov 2021, and oil prices are down nearly 10% in a reflection of concerns for global growth. China has however removed all Covid-restrictions almost overnight. It is now set to move out of its three years of Covid-19 isolation and lockdowns at record speed. Industrial metals are up 20% and the Hong Kong equity index is up 40% as a result (since 1 Nov-22). China’s sudden and rapid Covid-19 exit is plain and simply bullish for the Chinese economy to the point that mobility indices are already rebounding quickly. SEB’s general view is that inflation impulses will fade quickly. No need then for central banks across the world to kill the global economy with further extreme rate hikes. These developments have removed much of the downside price risks for metals in 2023 and we have to a large degree shifted our 2024 forecast to 2023.
Lower transparency, more geopolitics, more borders, and higher prices and exponential spikes. The first decade of this century was about emerging markets, the BRICs, the commodity price boom, the commodity investment boom, and free markets with free flow of commodities and labor with China and Russia hand in hand with western countries walking towards the future. High capex spending in the first decade led to plentiful supply and low prices for commodities from 2011 to 2020. A world of plenty, friends everywhere, free flow of everything, and no need to worry. The coming decade will likely be very different. Supply growth will struggle due to mediocre capex spending over the past 10 years. Prices will on average be significantly higher. There will be frequent exponential price spikes whenever demand hits supply barriers. Price transparency will be significantly reduced due to borders, taxes, sanctions, geopolitical alignments, and carbon intensities. Prices will be much less homogenous. Aluminium will no longer be just one price and one quality. Who made it, where was it made, where will it be consumed and what the carbon content will create a range of prices. Same for most other metals.
Copper: Struggling supply and China revival propel copper prices higher. Unrest in Peru is creating significant supply risks for copper as the country accounts for 10% of the global supply. Chile accounts for 27% of global production. Production there is disappointing with Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper mining company, struggling to hit production targets. The Cobre Panama mine in Panama is at risk of being closed over a tax dispute between Quantum and the government. Cobre Panama is one of the biggest new mines globally over the past 10 years. The rapid exit from Covid restrictions in China is bullish for the Chinese economy and thus for copper demand and it has helped to propel prices higher along with the mentioned supply issues. The Chinese property market will continue to struggle, and it normally accounts for 20% of global copper demand while China accounted for 55% of global copper demand in 2021. While China is no longer prioritizing the housing market it is full speed ahead for solar, wind, EVs, and electrification in general. So, weakening Chinese copper demand from housing will likely be replaced by the new prioritized growth sectors. Global supply growth is likely going to be muted in the decade to come while demand growth will be somewhere between a normal 3% pa. to a strong 4% pa. to a very strong 5% pa. Copper prices will be high, and demand will hit the supply barrier repeatedly with exponential spikes as the world is working hard to accelerate the energy transition. Copper prices could easily spike to USD 15-16,000/ton nearest years.
Nickel: Tight high-quality nickel market but a surplus for a low-quality nickel. Nickel production is growing aggressively in Indonesia. The country is projected to account for 60-70% of global supply in 2030. This will become a huge and extremely concentrated geopolitical risk for the world’s consumers of nickel. Indonesia has an abundance of low-grade C2 nickel. The challenge is to convert low-quality C2 nickel to high-quality C1. We are set for a surplus of C2 nickel but the market for C1 nickel will depend strongly on the conversion capacity for C2 to C1. Low price transparency will also help to send prices flying between USD 20,000/ton and USD 30,000/ton. Strong growth in nickel production in Indonesia should initially call for prices down to USD 20,000/ton. But Indonesia is a price setter. It will account for 50% of global supply in 2023. It doesn’t make sense for Indonesia to kill the nickel price. If the nickel price drops, then Indonesia could quickly regulate supply. There should be a premium to nickel due to this. As a result, we expect the nickel price to average USD 24,000/ton in 2023. C2 to C1 conversion capacity may be strained and there should also be a monopoly premium due to the size of Indonesia. Converting C2 to C1 is however extremely carbon intensive and that could be an increasing issue in the years to come.
Zinc: Super-tight global market. European LME inventories are ZERO and zinc smelters there are still closed. European zinc smelters account for 16% of global zinc smelter capacity. Most of this was closed over the past year due to extremely high energy prices. European LME zinc stockpiles are now down to a stunning zero! The global zinc market is extremely tight. Reopening of European zinc smelting seems unlikely in H1-23 with a continued super-tight market as a result both in Europe and globally.
Aluminium: Price likely to be in the range of USD 2400 – 3200/ton and line with coal prices in China. Aluminium prices have historically been tightly tied to the price of coal. But coal prices have been all over the place since the start of 2021 with huge price differences between Amsterdam, Australia, and domestic Chinese coal prices which are now largely state-controlled. China banning imports of Australian coal, the Chinese energy crisis in 2021, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are ingredients here. This sent aluminium prices flying high and low. Coal prices in China today imply a price of aluminium between USD 2400/ton and 3150/ton with the LME 3mth aluminium price nicely in between at USD 2590/ton. The global coal market should now become more orderly as China now again is accepting Australian coal. Energy costs have fallen sharply in Europe and some producers in the Netherlands have talked about possible restarts of production. China is likely to reduce its exports of primary aluminium. Energy security of supply is high on the agenda in China, and it makes no sense to emit lots of CO2 in China and indirectly export energy in the form of primary aluminium. Growth in non-China aluminium demand in the years to come will have to be covered by non-China producers which have the potential to force prices higher and away from coal as the price driver. While LME has one price for the 3mth aluminium price we’ll likely get larger and larger price differences across the world in the form of possibly extreme price premiums for example in the EU and the US.

Analys
Solid demand growth and strained supply to push Brent above USD 100/b


Brent crude had a strong end of the year as it traded at the highest level since 1 December. It is a slow start to the new year due to bank holidays and Dated Brent trades close to USD 85/b. It averaged USD 99.9/b in 2022. We expect it to average more than USD 100/b on average for the coming year amid strained supply and rebounding demand. Chinese oil demand is set to recover strongly along with re-openings while non-OECD will continue to move higher. At the moment oil looks absurdly cheap as it is cheaper than natural gas in both EU and Japan and also cheaper than coal in Australia.
Some price strength at the end of the year. The Dated Brent crude oil price index gained 2.3% on Friday with a close at USD 84.97/b. It was the highest close since 1 December. This morning it is trading slightly lower at USD 84.8/b but the market is basically void of action due to bank holidays.

Gloom and doom but IEA, OPEC and US EIA project global crude oil demand to rise between 1 m b/d and 2.2 m b/d YoY in 2023. They also expect call-on-OPEC to rise between 0.3 m b/d and 1.0 m b/d. The US EIA projects demand to increase 1 m b/d in 2023 on the back of a growth of 1.3 m b/d in non-OECD where demand in India rises by 0.2 m b/d and China by 0.6 m b/d. In China this is of course to a large degree due to re-opening after Covid-19 lock-downs. But it is still a good reminder of the low base of oil demand in non-OECD versus OECD. India last year consumed 5 m b/d which only amounts to 1.3 b/capita/year versus a world average of 4.5 b/capita/year and European demand of 10 b/capita/year. Even China is still below the world average as its demand in 2022 stood at 15.2 m b/d or 4.0 b/capita/yr. Non-OECD oil demand thus still has a long way to go in terms of oil demand and that is probably one of the things we’ll be reminded of in 2023 as Covid-19 lock-downs disappear entirely.
Solid demand growth in the face of strained supply. Important to remember is that the world has lost a huge amount of fossil supply from Russia due to the war in Ukraine. First in terms of natural gas where supply to the EU and thus to the world has declined by some 2.5 m boe/d versus pre-war levels. Secondly in terms of crude and products. The latter is of course a constant guessing game in terms of how much Russian crude and product exports has declined. The US EIA however projects that crude oil production in the Former Soviet Union will be down 2 m b/d in 2023 versus pre-Covid levels and down 1.3 m b/d YoY from 2022 to 2023. We are thus talking up to 4.5 m boe/d of lost supply from Russia/FSU. That is a huge loss. It is the reason why coal prices are still trading at USD 200 – 400/ton versus normal USD 85/ton as coal is an alternative to very expensive natural gas.
Overall for 2023 we are looking at a market where we’ll have huge losses in supply of fossil energy supply from Russia while demand for oil is set to rebound solidly (+1.0 – 2.2 m b/d) along with steady demand growth in non-OECD plus a jump in demand from China due to Covid-19 reopening. Need for oil from OPEC is set to rise by up to 1.0 m b/d YoY while the group’s spare capacity is close to exhausted.
We expect Brent crude to average more than USD 100/b in 2023. Despite all the macro economic gloom and doom due to inflation and rising interest rates we cannot help having a positive view for crude oil prices for the year to come due to the above reasons. The Dated Brent crude oil price index averaged USD 99.9/b in 2022. We think Brent crude will average more than USD 100/b in 2023. Oil is today absurdly cheap at USD 85/b. It is cheaper than both coal in Australia and natural gas both in Japan and the EU. This is something you hardly ever see. The energy market will work hard to consume more what is cheap (oil) and less of what is expensive (nat gas and coal).
Latest forecasts by IEA, OPEC and US EIA for oil demand growth and call-on-OPEC YoY for 2023. Solid demand growth and rising need for oil from OPEC.

Oil demand projections from the main agencies and estimated call-on-OPEC. More demand and higher need for oil from OPEC

EIA STEO projected change in oil demand for different countries and regions YoY to 2023

US EIA Dec STEO forecast for FSU oil production. Solid decline projected for 2023.

US commercial crude and product stocks still below normal

Total US crude and product stocks including SPR. Declining, declining, declining.

US crude and product inventories both excluding and including Strategic Petroleum Reserves

US oil sales from US SPR is now coming to an end. Will make the market feel much tighter as it really is.

Brent crude oil is absurdly cheap as it today trades below both Australian coal and natural gas in both Japan and the EU. Coal and natural gas prices should trade lower while oil should trade higher.

EU diesel prices versus natural gas prices. Could start to move towards a more natural price-balance in terms of substitution.

-
Nyheter4 veckor ago
Oljepriset ser ut att vända uppåt i mars-april
-
Nyheter5 dagar ago
Oljepriset lägre än intervallet där USA ska köpa tillbaka olja – över hela terminskurvan
-
Nyheter4 veckor ago
Ryssland har stoppat oljeleveranserna till Polen via Druzhba-ledningen
-
Nyheter4 veckor ago
Priset på naturgas i USA nere på 2 USD
-
Nyheter4 dagar ago
Oman tar ett stort steg i att bli en stor producent av vätgas
-
Nyheter2 dagar ago
Den stora oljeoptimisten Goldman Sachs tror inte längre på 100 USD-olja i år
-
Nyheter3 veckor ago
Den sämsta apelsinskörden på 90 år i Florida
-
Nyheter3 veckor ago
USA inför en enorm tull på rysk aluminium