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SEB Jordbruksprodukter, 11 februari 2013

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SEB Veckobrev med prognoser på jordbruksråvaror

SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - CommodityWASDE-rapporten innehöll endast små förändringar och de förändringar som USDA gjorde var i linje med vad vi och marknaden väntat oss att de skulle göra. För vete- och majsmarknaden hände ingenting. Däremot föll priset på sojabönor ganska mycket, mer än vad som motiverades av siffrorna från USDA.

Däremot visade siffrorna att det inte var så illa som några befarat. I förhållande till de senaste årens relation mellan pris och väntat utgående lager ligger priserna på vete, majs och sojabönor i linje med vad som varit ”rätt” pris.

Tendens för priser på jordbruksråvarorVad gäller gammal skörd av vete förbereder sig såväl Egypten som Ryssland att försöka komma över så stor del av kakan av det lilla lager som finns i världen som möjligt. Mer om det nedan.

Vete

I onsdags beslöt Ryssland att ta bort importtullen om 5% på spannmål, som vi förutspådde i förra veckans veckobrev. Pådrivande kan ha varit att GASC i helgen för en vecka sedan köpte ytterligare vete, efter att just ha genomfört sin normala tender för månaden tidigare i veckan. Förra veckan skrev vi att Ryssland torde ha slut på vete mot slutet av april. Samtidigt behöver Egypten, och säkert flera andra, också köpa vete senare i vår – till rimliga priser. Det har därför varit en balansgång mellan att gå ut och köpa aggressivt till dagens höga priser å ena sidan – och att avvakta och kanske kunna få tag på vete billigare längre fram under våren. Terminskurvan indikerar lägre priser i vår – åtminstone på europeiskt vete. Eftersom lagerstatistiken och matbehovet ser ut som det gör, gissar vi på att pulsen hos marknadsaktörerna kommer att stiga ännu mer under våren.

För den som sitter på vete av gammal skörd att sälja finns all anledning att följa med. Terminspriserna visar att priset kommer att falla ordentligt när den nya skörden kommer in och avhjälper bristen. Frågan är om det går att få mer betalt för gammal skörd än dagens pris. Vi tror möjligen det. Nedan ser vi kursdiagrammet på Matif för leverans i maj:

Mill Wheat Euro - 10 februari 2013

Priset på november (2013) kontraktet har den senaste tiden fallit betydligt mer än maj-kontraktet, som vi ser i diagrammet nedan. WASDE-rapporten som kom i fredags kväll, var något av en ickehändelse. WASDE-rapporten har mer bäring på novemberkontraktet än på maj-kontraktet. De något mer bullish / oroväckande nyheterna från Ryssland och Egypten påverkar inte novemberkontraktet lika mycket som majkontraktet.

Wheat - CAX3 commodity

Nedan ser vi decemberkontraktet på CBOT. 800 cent bröts. 779 fungerar som ett tekniskt stöd och där ligger priset nu. Bryts det är 750 cent nästa anhalt på nedsidan.

Vete, decemberkontraktet på CBOT

Så nu till WASDE-rapporten. USDA:s estimat (gissningar) om produktionen för 11/12 och 12/13 ser vi nedan. Man gjorde en liten sänkning endast på fd Sovjets produktion. Brasiliens (Other) sänktes också.

Global veteproduktion

Konsumtionen sänktes något för USA. Nedan ser vi estimatet för utgående lager. Det är obetydliga förändringar och rapporten innehöll inget kursdrivande alls.

Vetelager i världen

Nedan ser vi relationen mellan pris och utgående lager sedan 60-talets början. Varje punkt är ett år, per den 8 februaris pris och estimerat utgående lager varje år. Vi ser att ett lager som räcker i drygt 70 dagar och ett pris på strax under 800 cent ÄR i linje med den relation som varit rådande de senaste åren. Ju mindre lager desto högre pris. Priset ser ut att ligga rätt.

Relationen mellan pris och utgående lager på vete

Vi fortsätter vår neutrala vy på vetet.

Maltkorn

November 2013-kontraktet sjönk för tredje veckan i rad, från 247 euro per ton till 246.50.

Pris på maltkorn

Maltkornsmarknaden är tämligen illikvid och omsättningen har inte tagit fart, som Euronext säkert hoppats när kontraktet introducerades för några år sedan. Nedan ser vi prisutvecklingen på novemberkontraktet på maltkorn och dit för kvarnvete. Vi ser att de följer vandra åt tämligen väl. Om man skulle använda Matifs kvarnvetekontrakt för att prissäkra maltkorn blir inte följsamheten fullt så dålig som man skulle kunna tro.

Prisutveckling på olika vetesorter

Majs

Majspriset (december 2013) föll kraftigt i veckan som gick efter att ha brutit det stöd du kunde läsa om förra veckan. Priset har nu fallit ner till ett prisområde där det finns tre ganska starka tekniska stöd. Det mest sannolika härifrån är att marknaden konsoliderar sig med sidledes rörelse, eventuellt ner mot 550 cent.

Majspris C Z3

Veckovis etanolproduktion i USA ökade till 704,000 fat per dag från förra veckans rekordlåga 700,000 fat.

Veckovis etanolproduktion

Så till fredagens WASDE-rapport. Argentina justerades ner och Brasilien upp. Det var väntat efter det väder som varit. Ukraina och Mexiko justerades också upp något. Brasilianska CONAB förutspår dock en skörd om 76 mt och där ligger USDA efter med 72.5 mt. USDA ligger i och för sig också efter vad man kan tro om ännu lägre skörd i Argentina. På global basis, som vi ser nedan, en något högre väntad skörd i år.

Global majsproduktion - Januari/Februari

Utgående lager höjdes tillräckligt i rapporten för att ge säljarna ytterligare vind i seglen. Men det är kommer fortfarande att bli ont om majs i sommar, innan den nya skörden kommer in.

Världslager av majs

Nedan ser vi relationen mellan lager och pris. Liksom för vetet visar diagrammet förhållandet mellan lager och pris varje år i februari.

Relation mellan majslager och majspris

Även fast lagren är så små att det inte finns så många punkter med lägre lager att förlita sig på, förefaller inte priset nu avvika allt för mycket från de senaste årens relation mellan lager och pris. Vi fortsätter att ha en neutral vy på majs.

Sojabönor

Sojabönorna (november 2013) föll kraftigt efter WASDE-rapporten i fredags. Nästan ända ner till de tekniska stöden vid 1260 cent per bushel. Nedanför ser vi kurdiagrammet för sojabönor (november 2013).

Pris på sojabönor (S X3 comdty)

WASDE-rapportens produktionsestimat handlade helt om Sydamerika. Argentinas väntade skörd justerades ner 1 mt och Brasiliens upp lika mycket. Resten lämnades oförändrat.

World soybean production

Nedan ser vi USDA:s estimat på utgående lager. Det är inte någon kioskvältare på papperet. En höjning med lite drygt 0.5 mt. Lagren i USA sänktes till 3.40 från 3.67 mt. Utgående lager i Brasilien höjdes.

World soybean end stocks

Nedan ser vi relationen mellan pris och lager. I förhållande till de senaste årens relation, ser låg priset innan rapporten något högt. Efter fredagens prisfall ligger priset mer eller mindre mitt i linje med den historiska relationen.

Sojabönor - Relation mellan pris och lager

Vi fortsätter därför att ha en neutral rekommendation på sojabönorna.

Raps

Rapspriset (november 2013) har utvecklat sig starkare än sojabönorna. Ett försök att handla rapsen högre i veckan hindrades dock av WASDE-rapporten och det betydande prisfallet efter den i sojabönsmarknaden.

TA-analys på rapspriset

Vi ligger kvar med vår negativa vy för rapspriset.

Gris

Grispriset (Maj 13) föll förra veckan ner till 93.50. Läsare av veckobrevet har tidigare kunnat läsa att rekylen uppåt efter brottet av den tekniska stödnivån skulle tolkas som ett tillfälle att sälja. Det visade sig vara rätt. Nu ligger priset på stödet och därifrån får marknaden visa vägen. Ännu ett brott nedåt innebär att prisfallet kan fortsätta.

Pris på gris - LHK3 - Smavg

Mjölk

Fonterras auktion i onsdags visade på en prisuppgång på SMP. På Eurex fortsatte dock kräftgången i SMP. Prisutvecklingen på smör fortsatte att falla tillbaka efter toppen i december. I diagrammet nedan ser vi nu fyra kurvor. Den övre tunna linjen är EUREX SMP. Den nedre tunna linjen är Eurex SMP. Den rosa linjen visar priset på helmjölkspulver (WMP) FOB Västeuropa. Källan är USDA och priserna uppdateras varannan vecka. Den röda linjen är Fonterras auktion.

Pris på mjölk, helmjölkspulver mfl

Beprövad erfarenhet säger att vi ska vänta oss ett nytt kraftigt prisfall inom kort.

Prisfall att vänta - DAK3

EURSEK

EURSEK fortsatte att röra sig sidledes i veckan som gick. Utsikterna för den kommande veckan är att detta kommer att fortsätta.

EURSEK valutadiagram - 13 februari

USDSEK

Dollarn rekylerade uppåt mot slutet av veckan. Detta ser ut knappast ut som ett trendbrott, utan som en rekyl i en fallande trend. Därmed är det ett säljtillfälle.

USDSEK valutadiagram

[box]SEB Veckobrev Jordbruksprodukter är producerat av SEB Merchant Banking och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]

Disclaimer

The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”).

Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.

About SEB

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Analys

OPEC+ won’t kill the goose that lays the golden egg

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Lots of talk about an increasingly tight oil market. And yes, the oil price will move higher as a result of this and most likely move towards USD 100/b. Tensions and flareups in the Middle East is little threat to oil supply and will be more like catalysts driving the oil price higher on the back of a fundamentally bullish market. I.e. flareups will be more like releasing factors. But OPEC+ will for sure produce more if needed as it has no interest in killing the goose (global economy) that lays the golden egg (oil demand growth). We’ll probably get verbal intervention by OPEC+ with ”.. more supply in H2” quite quickly when oil price moves closer to USD 100/b and that will likely subdue the bullishness. OPEC+ in full control of the oil market probably means an oil price ranging from USD 70/b to USD 100/b with an average of around USD 85/b. Just like last year.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Brent crude continues to trade around USD 90/b awaiting catalysts like further inventory declines or Mid East flareups. Brent crude ydy traded in a range of USD 88.78 – 91.1/b before settling at USD 90.38/b. Trading activity ydy seems like it was much about getting comfortable with 90-level. Is it too high? Is there still more upside etc. But in the end it settled above the 90-line. This morning it has traded consistently above the line without making any kind of great leap higher.

Netanyahu made it clear that Rafah will be attacked. Israel ydy pulled some troops out of Khan Younis in Gaza and that calmed nerves in the region a tiny bit. But it seems to be all about tactical preparations rather than an indication of a defuse of the situation. Ydy evening Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel made it clear that a date for an assault on Rafah indeed has been set despite Biden’s efforts to prevent him doing so. Article in FT on this today. So tension in Israel/Gaza looks set to rise in not too long. The market is also still awaiting Iran’s response to the bombing of its consulate in Damascus one week ago. There is of course no oil production in Israel/Gaza and not much in Syria, Lebanon or Yemen either. The effects on the oil market from tensions and flareups in these countries are first and foremost that they work as catalysts for the oil price to move higher in an oil market which is fundamentally bullish. Deficit and falling oil inventories is the fundamental reason for why the oil price is moving higher and for why it is at USD 90/b today. There is also the long connecting string of:

[Iran-Iraq-Syria/Yemen/Lebanon/Gaza – Israel – US]

which creates a remote risk that oil supply in the Middle East potentially could be at risk in the end when turmoil is flaring in the middle of this connecting string. This always creates discomfort in the oil market. But we see little risk premium for a scenario where oil supply is really hurt in the end as neither Iran nor the US wants to end up in such a situation.

Tight market but OPEC+ will for sure produce more if needed to prevent global economy getting hurt. There  is increasing talk about the oil market getting very tight in H2-24 and that the oil price could shoot higher unless OPEC+ is producing more. But of course OPEC+ will indeed produce more. The health of the global economy is essential for OPEC+. Healthy oil demand growth is like the goose that lays the golden egg for them. In no way do they want to kill it with too high oil prices. Brent crude averaged USD 82.2/b last year with a high of USD 98/b. So far this year it has averaged USD 82.6/b. SEB’s forecast is USD 85/b for the average year with a high of USD 100/b. We think that a repetition of last year with respect to oil prices is great for OPEC+ and fully acceptable for the global economy and thus will not hinder a solid oil demand growth which OPEC+ needs. Nothing would make OPEC+ more happy than to produce at a normal level and still being able to get USD 85/b. Brent crude will head yet higher because OPEC+ continues to hold back supply Q2-24 resulting in declining inventories and thus higher prices. But when the oil price is nearing USD 100/b we expect verbal intervention from the group with statements like ”… more supply in H2-24” and that will probably dampen bullish prices.

Not only does OPEC+ want to produce at a normal level. It also needs to produce at a normal level. Because at some point in time in the future there will be a situation sooner or later where they will have to cut again. And unless they are back to normal production at that time they won’t be in a position to cut again.

So OPEC+ won’t kill the goose that lays the golden egg. They won’t allow the oil price to stay too high for too long. I.e. USD 100/b or higher. They will produce more in H2-24 if needed to prevent too high oil prices and they have the reserve capacity to do it.

Data today: US monthly oil market report (STEO) with forecast for US crude and liquids production at 18:00 CET

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Analys

Prepare for more turmoil, lower inventories and higher prices

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crude is pulling back below the 90-line this morning trading as low as USD 88.78/b following a 4.2% gain last week. The pullback is blamed on news that Israel is pulling some troops out of Gaza. But we think this is much more of a technical move below the 90-line with preparations for further price gains ahead. The Israeli troop movements are a preparation for a final push into Rafah in Gaza to take out the last stronghold of Hamas there (FT article today). Iranian retaliation following the attack in Damascus last week also looks set to unfold in some way. Possibly by Hezbollah in Lebanon though instigated by Iran. Prepare for more turmoil, lower oil inventories and higher prices as the market continues to run a deficit.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Brent gained 4.2% last week with a solid close above the 90-line. Brent crude had a stellar week last week gaining 4.2%. Even following such a strong performance it made a gain on Friday of 0.6% with a close at USD 91.17/b. Friday also saw the highest trade of the week at USD 91.91/b.

Brent was propelled by positive PMI gains, geopolitics and falling US inventories. Oil was supported by a rang of factors last week. Both the US and China saw their manufacturing PMIs rise above the 50-line (50.3 and 50.8 resp.). The Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 46.1 from 45.7 while the composite index rose above the 50-line to 50.3 from 49.9. These PMI gains supported both oil and metals through growth recovery optimism. US oil inventories last Wednesday created less waves with a net draw of 2.2 m b in total crude and product inventories. It was still a very bullish reading in our view as inventories normally this time of year should have risen 3.8 m b. Thus driving US commercial oil inventories further away and below the normal level of inventories. Geopolitical focus flared up following the attack on Iran’s consulate in Syria where Iran’s top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) general in Syria along with five other IRGC officers were killed. Israel is assumed to be behind the attack but has not taken responsibility yet.

Back below 90 this morning in what seems like a geopolitical breather. But is more of a technical move. This morning Brent crude has pulled back and traded as low as USD 88.78/b while trading at USD 89.76/b. We commented on Friday that it is quite normal for Brent crude to pull back below big numbers after having broken them. Just to test out the level properly before heading higher.

Israel is pulling some troops out of Gaza. Most likely it is preparing to attack Rafah (FT today)Price action to the downside this morning is blamed on some kind of reduced geopolitical premium as Israel is withdrawing some of its troops in Gaza. The reason why it is withdrawing some tropes however is to our understanding that Israel is preparing to attack Rafah, the southernmost part of Gaza bordering to Egypt where now close to one million Palestinians are living. It is the last strong-hold of Hamas and Israel looks bent on taking it out despite repeated warnings against it from the US. Human tragedy looks set to unfold in Rafah in not too long.

”Iran will respond to the Damascus strike”. The most likely flareup is Lebanon and Hezbollah. The geopolitical flare following the attack on Iran’s consulate in Syria last week has faded a little this morning. But this is in no way over. John Sawers, former chief of MI6, in an article in FT on Friday bluntly stated: ”Iran will respond to the Damascus strike”.  Iran still doesn’t want to be involved in direct military confrontation. The likely flareup will be Lebanon and Hezbollah which could force Israel into a two-front war. 

Rafah is located in the southernmost part of Gaza

Gaza map
Source: https://www.un.org/unispal/document/auto-insert-200679/

Net long specs in Brent + WTI rose by 34 m b over the week to 2 April.

Net long specs in Brent + WTI rose by 34 m b over the week to 2 April.
Source: SEB graph and calculations, Data feed by Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia lifted its Official Selling Prices to Asia for most grades for May delivery

Saudi Arabia lifted its Official Selling Prices to Asia for most grades for May delivery
Source: SEB graph and calculations, Data feed by Bloomberg
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Analys

Brent crude jumps above USD 91/b as market nervously brace for Iranian retaliation

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crude jumps above USD 91/b but will likely see sub-90 again before charging yet higher. Brent crude reached USD 89.99/b on Wednesday before making the leap above the 90-line yesterday evening in a spiky fashion jumping almost directly to USD 91.3/b (ydy high) in less than three hours before closing at USD 90.65/b. This morning it is showing strength again with a gain of 0.6% to USD 91.2/b though it hasn’t yet broken above the high from ydy. It is very usual for the oil price to fool around big numbers as the 90-line before properly breaking through. We saw it on Wednesday when it almost got there but not really above anyhow. Also after breaking properly above as it did yesterday one often sees that the oil price then dips down to the ”big number” again, a little bit below, just to test it, before properly breaking higher. Thus we’ll likely see it break down below the 90-line again in the short-term before heading properly higher.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Iran promises retaliation while Israel makes it clear it will strike back if attacked. Iran’s top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) general in Syria along with five other IRGC officers were killed on Monday following an attack on Iran’s consulate in Syria. Iran has blamed Israel for the attack. Israel has so far not taken responsibility for the attack. Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi directly blamed Israel and stated on Tuesday that Israel’s strike on its consulate in Syria ”won’t remain unanswered”. Yesterday we saw a hard-line stand from Israel where Netanyahu made it clear that if Iran strikes its territory then Israel will have no choice but to respond.

Market is preparing for Iranian retaliation, but most likely it will be through Iran’s proxies. The market is now bracing it self for a likely retaliatory action by Iran in response to the event in Syria on Monday. It seems very unlikely that Iran explicitly will attack targets on Israeli soil directly and thus risk getting dragged into a wider war with Israel and thus the US. If Israel and Iran gets into a direct conflict then the US will naturally be involved either directly or indirectly. No one wants that. Not Iran, not Biden and not Israel. A forthcoming retaliatory attack from Iran will thus likely be through some of its proxies in Yemen, Syria or Lebanon.

The market now know that some kind of retaliation from Iran will likely come but it doesn’t know when and where and what and that creates a great discomfort and nervousness.

Oil supply is unlikely to be affected. Still no one expects that oil supply is at risk in any way unless this situation blows out to an all-engulfing conflict between Israel and Iran where the US naturally would be dragged along into it all. It is too much at stake for all parties involved for this to happen.

Iran is producing 3.1 m b/d and rising and is unlikely to endanger that. Iran is probably extremely happy at the moment with respect to oil prices and oil exports. Iran used to produce around 3.8 m b/d of crude oil but due to US sanctions it only produced 2.0 m b/d in 2020 which is basically what it needs to cover its own demand with little left over for exports except for condensates which comes on top of crude oil production with about 0.8 m b/d. Since 2020 however its production has increased significantly and now stands at 3.1 m b/d and rising. Add in an oil price of USD 91/b and the situation for Iran is close to bliss economically. So Iran will likely retaliate following the attack on its consulate in Syria on Monday, but not in a fashion which will endanger its greatly improved situation with respect to oil export income.

Iran’s oil production is now back up to 3.1 m b/d and rising. Economically this is bliss for Iran when added together with an oil price of USD 91/b

Iran's oil production
Source: SEB graph, Blbrg data

The ongoing destruction of Gaza following the October 7 attack on Israel will feed red hot anger, pain and violence into the Middle East region for months and years to come.

Gaza
Source: Photo by: France24
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