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Six consecutive weeks of flows into long gold and oil ETPs

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Research by ETF Securities

ETF SecuritiesSix consecutive weeks of flows into long gold and oil ETPs highlight investors’ concern over geopolitical events. The US Defense Secretary declared the terrorist group, Islamic State, to be the most dangerous threat that the US has faced in years. A growing sense that the conflict in the Middle East will be a long, drawn-out affair has led investors to expand their holdings of defensive assets. However, the price of gold fell last week, as policy setters at the central banks of the UK and US appear to be more open to raising interest rates.

Commodity flowsWith US$35.0mn of inflows last week, ETF Securities long gold ETPs have seen their longest stretch of consecutive positive flows since October 2012. The sixth week of inflows, despite modest price performance, highlights the extent to which sentiment towards gold has changed since last year when investors in ETPs and futures markets were abandoning the metal in droves. Investors are rebuilding the hedges into their portfolios after having taken them off in 2013.

Long WTI ETP inflows rise to US$17.0mn, the highest in four months, while short WTI ETPs see their largest outflow since November 2013. While Brent ETPs have been the main beneficiary of rising geopolitical risk, seeing 11 consecutive weeks of inflows, WTI ETPs are gaining favour as the price of the benchmark remains relatively cheap. WTI has seen five consecutive weeks of price declines as inventories remain well above the 5-year average. However, the market could tighten with OPEC and the EIA expecting demand to pick up and US inventories last week fell substantially more than forecast.

ETFS Corn (CORN) sees highest inflow since March 2014. Bargain hunting drove US$4.6mn of inflows into the ETP as expectations of record yields and production have beaten the price down to the lowest since 2010. However, with near-perfect conditions completely priced-in, a small disruption to weather conditions could drive prices upwards.

ETFS Wheat (WEAT) continued to see its 14th consecutive week of inflows, attracting US$0.6mn last week as the price of wheat gained 1.7%. Wheat prices are also close to their lowest since 2010, driven by expectations of a bumper crop in the US. Last week however, Ukraine finally confirmed that conflict affected regions will not be able to export as much as normal and a poor crop is expected in France, which will both help tighten the global market.

Profit taking drives flows out of platinum group metal (PGM) ETPs. With year-to-date gains of 22.5% and 4.6% for palladium and platinum, respectively, many investors feel like the best of the rally is over. Although platinum fell 3.3% last week, reports of mine closures in Zimbabwe and rising Chinese imports toward the end of the week, could reverse the downtrend. We believe that platinum will rise faster than palladium in coming months, allowing the metal to narrow the recent underperformance. US$105.8mn and US$34.3mn flowed out of ETFS Physical Palladium (PHPD) and ETFS Physical Platinum (PHPT), respectively.

Key events to watch this week. Euro area unemployment and inflation data will be closely watched as the market tries to guess the pace at which the European Central Bank will loosen its policy setting. The second estimate of US Q2 GDP if unchanged or higher, could help consolidate the US dollar’s strength, which would typically weigh on commodity prices.

Analys

Stronger inventory build than consensus, diesel demand notable

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Yesterday’s US DOE report revealed an increase of 4.6 million barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending February 14. This build was slightly higher than the API’s forecast of +3.3 million barrels and compared with a consensus estimate of +3.5 million barrels. As of this week, total US crude inventories stand at 432.5 million barrels – ish 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

In addition, gasoline inventories saw a slight decrease of 0.2 million barrels, now about 1% below the five-year average. Diesel inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, marking a 12% drop from the five-year average for this period.

Refinery utilization averaged 84.9% of operable capacity, a slight decrease from the previous week. Refinery inputs averaged 15.4 million barrels per day, down by 15 thousand barrels per day from the prior week. Gasoline production decreased to an average of 9.2 million barrels per day, while diesel production increased to 4.7 million barrels per day.

Total products supplied (implied demand) over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, reflecting a 3.7% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Specifically, motor gasoline demand averaged 8.4 million barrels per day, up by 0.4% year-on-year, and diesel demand averaged 4.3 million barrels per day, showing a strong 14.2% increase compared to last year. Jet fuel demand also rose by 4.3% compared to the same period in 2024.

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Analys

Higher on confidence OPEC+ won’t lift production. Taking little notice of Trump sledgehammer to global free trade

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Ticking higher on confidence that OPEC+ won’t lift production in April. Brent crude gained 0.8% yesterday with a close of USD 75.84/b. This morning it is gaining another 0.7% to USD 76.3/b. Signals the latest days that OPEC+ is considering a delay to its planned production increase in April and the following months is probably the most important reason. But we would be surprised if that wasn’t fully anticipated and discounted in the oil price already. News this morning that there are ”green shots” to be seen in the Chinese property market is macro-positive, but industrial metals are not moving. It is naturally to be concerned about the global economic outlook as Donald Trump takes a sledgehammer smashing away at the existing global ”free-trade structure” with signals of 25% tariffs on car imports to the US. The oil price takes little notice of this today though.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Kazakhstan CPC crude flows possibly down 30% for months due to damaged CPC pumping station. The Brent price has been in steady decline since mid-January but seems to have found some support around the USD 74/b mark, the low point from Thursday last week. Technically it is inching above the 50dma today with 200dma above at USD 77.64/b. Oil flowing from Kazakhstan on the CPC line may be reduced by 30% until the Krapotkinskaya oil pumping station is repaired. That may take several months says Russia’s Novak. This probably helps to add support to Brent crude today.

The Brent crude 1mth contract with 50dma, 100dma, 200dma and RSI. Nothing on the horizon at the moment which makes us expect any imminent break above USD 80/b

The Brent crude 1mth contract with 50dma, 100dma, 200dma and RSI. Nothing on the horizon at the moment which makes us expect any imminent break above USD 80/b
Source: Bloomberg
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Analys

Brent looks to US production costs. Taking little notice of Trump-tariffs and Ukraine peace-dealing

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crude hardly moved last week taking little notice of neither tariffs nor Ukraine peace-dealing. Brent crude traded up 0.1% last week to USD 74.74/b trading in a range of USD 74.06 – 77.29/b. Fluctuations through the week may have been driven by varying signals from the Putin-Trump peace negotiations over Ukraine. This morning Brent is up 0.4% to USD 75/b. Gain is possibly due to news that a Caspian pipeline pumping station has been hit by a drone with reduced CPC (Kazaksthan) oil flows as a result.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Brent front-month contract rock solid around the USD 75/b mark. The Brent crude price level of around USD 75/b hardly moved an inch week on week. Fear that Trump-tariffs will hurt global economic growth and oil demand growth. No impact. Possibility that a peace deal over Ukraine will lead to increased exports of oil from Russia. No impact. On the latter. Russian oil production at 9 mb/band versus a more normal 10 mb/d and comparably lower exports is NOT due to sanctions by the EU and the US. Russia is part of OPEC+, and its production is aligned with Saudi Arabia at 9 mb/d and the agreement Russia has made with Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Though exports of Russian crude and products has been hampered a little by the new Biden-sanctions on 10 January, but that effect is probably fading by the day as oil flows have a tendency to seep through the sanction barriers over time. A sharp decline in time-spreads is probably a sign of that.

Longer-dated prices zoom in on US cost break-evens with 5yr WTI at USD 63/b and Brent at USD 68-b. Argus reported on Friday that a Kansas City Fed survey last month indicated an average of USD 62/b for average drilling and oil production in the US to be profitable. That is down from USD 64/b last year. In comparison the 5-year (60mth) WTI contract is trading at USD 62.8/b. Right at that level. The survey response also stated that an oil price of sub-USD 70/b won’t be enough over time for the US oil industry to make sufficient profits with decline capex over time with sub-USD 70/b prices. But for now, the WTI 5yr is trading at USD 62.8/b and the Brent crude 5-yr is trading at USD 67.7/b. 

Volatility comes in waves. Brent crude 30dma annualized volatility.

Volatility comes in waves. Brent crude 30dma annualized volatility.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data

1 to 3 months’ time-spreads have fallen back sharply. Crude oil from Russia and Iran may be seeping through the 10 Jan Biden-sanctions.

1 to 3 months' time-spreads have fallen back sharply. Crude oil from Russia and Iran may be seeping through the 10 Jan Biden-sanctions.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data

Brent crude 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.

Brent crude 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data

ARA Jet 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.

ARA Jet 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data

ICE Gasoil 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.

ICE Gasoil 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data

Rotterdam Fuel oil 0.5% 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.

Rotterdam Fuel oil 0.5% 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data

Rotterdam Fuel oil 3.5% 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.

Rotterdam Fuel oil 3.5% 1M, 12M, 24M and Y2027 prices.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data
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