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SHB Veckans råvarukommentar 6 februari 2015

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Handelsbanken - Råvarubrevet - Nyhetsbrev om råvaror
  • Kvartalsrapport för råvaror från HandelsbankenStora rörelser trots nyhetsfattig vecka
  • Koppar återhämtar sig något
  • Guld faller för andra veckan
  • Vetet stiger efter tidigare nedgång

Makromässigt har veckan varit ovanligt nyhetsfattig. Det hindrar inte råvarumarknaden från att röra sig kraftigt. Brentolja ligger så här långt 9 % upp under veckan som varit den mest volatila sedan 2009. Marknaden vacklar mellan att fokusera på den kortsiktiga fysiska marknadsbalansen som ser fortsatt negativ ut och de långsiktiga faktorerna som till slut kommer föra marknaden till balans. De kortsiktiga negativa faktorerna inkluderar rekordnivåer på lagren i USA och sänkta priser från Saudiarabien. De långsiktigt positiva faktorerna är att riggar i USA ställs av i rekordfart samt att de stora oljebolagen sänkt investeringsprognoser rejält i sina Q4-rapporter.

Koppar går mot första veckan med stigande pris efter sju veckor i fallande trend. En allt mer negativ marknadsbalans för 2015 har handlats in i priset och det är rimligt att raset tar viss paus även om vi tror att nedsidan finns kvar längre fram i år.

Guld ser ut att avsluta andra veckan i rad i moll när ECB stimulanser minskar behovet av guld som säker hamn åt investerare. Priset kan dock röra sig i dag med payrolls kl.14.30, Bloomberg median är 230,000 nya jobb i januari, siffran kan bära lite nedsiderisk givet svagare ISM, inköpchefsindex för tillverkningssektorn, men viktiga är den förväntande lönetillväxten per timme på förväntade 0.3%.

Vete har vänt upp efter senaste veckornas nedgång. Starkare import från Japan, Egypten och Saudiarabien tillsammans med svagare utsikter för ryska vintervetet ligger bakom.

[box]SHB Råvarukommentar är producerat av Handelsbanken och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]

Ansvarsbegränsning

Detta material är producerat av Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) i fortsättningen kallad Handelsbanken. De som arbetar med innehållet är inte analytiker och materialet är inte oberoende investeringsanalys. Innehållet är uteslutande avsett för kunder i Sverige. Syftet är att ge en allmän information till Handelsbankens kunder och utgör inte ett personligt investeringsråd eller en personlig rekommendation. Informationen ska inte ensamt utgöra underlag för investeringsbeslut. Kunder bör inhämta råd från sina rådgivare och basera sina investeringsbeslut utifrån egen erfarenhet.

Informationen i materialet kan ändras och också avvika från de åsikter som uttrycks i oberoende investeringsanalyser från Handelsbanken. Informationen grundar sig på allmänt tillgänglig information och är hämtad från källor som bedöms som tillförlitliga, men riktigheten kan inte garanteras och informationen kan vara ofullständig eller nedkortad. Ingen del av förslaget får reproduceras eller distribueras till någon annan person utan att Handelsbanken dessförinnan lämnat sitt skriftliga medgivande. Handelsbanken ansvarar inte för att materialet används på ett sätt som strider mot förbudet mot vidarebefordran eller offentliggörs i strid med bankens regler.

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Analys

Oil demand at risk as US consumers soon will face hard tariff-realities

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Muted sideways trading. Brent crude traded mostly sideways last week, but due to a relatively strong close on the Friday before, it ended the week down 1.6% at USD 66.87/b with a high-low range of USD 65.29 – 68.65/b. So muted price range action. Brent crude is trading marginally higher, up 0.3%, this morning amid mixed equity and commodity markets.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Strong Chinese buying in April as oil prices dipped. Chinese imports of crude continued to accelerate in April following a surge in March with data from Kepler indicating that Chinese imports averaged near 11 mb/d in April. That is an 18mth high and strongly up versus only 8.9 mb/d in January (FT.com today). That has most certainly helped to stem the rot in the oil price which bottomed at an intraday low of USD 58.4/b on 9 April. It has probably also helped to keep the front-end of the Brent crude oil forward curve in consistent backwardation. The strong buying from China is both opportunistic stockpiling due to the price slump but also rebuilding of oil inventories in general.

Oil speculators are cautious with oil demand at risk as US consumers soon will face hard tariff-realities. But oil market speculators are far from bullish. While net long speculative positions are up 52.2 mb over the week to last Tuesday, it is still only the 15th lowest speculative positioning over the past 52 weeks. The underlying concern is of course the US tariffs which is crippling exports of goods from China to the US with bookings of container freight down by 30% according to Hapag-Lloyd. Bloomberg’s Chief US economist, Anna Wong, is saying that empty shelves in US shops will soon be the reality. Thus US-China trade relations need to be fixed quickly to avoid hard realities for US consumers. The lead-times are long and the current tariffs and uncertainty around these is now risking availability for US consumer goods for the holiday seasons in H2-25. Tariff realities for US consumers are increasingly just around the corner.  ”Rubber will hit the road” very soon and that is when we might see weaker oil demand as well.

Brent crude traded mostly sideways last week though ended down 1.6% in the end.

Brent crude traded mostly sideways last week though ended down 1.6% in the end.
Source: Bloomberg graph and data

Net long speculative positions in Brent and WTI up 52.2 mb over week to last Tuesday but still at 15-week low over past 52 weeks.

Net long speculative positions in Brent and WTI up 52.2 mb over week to last Tuesday but still at 15-week low over past 52 weeks.
Source: SEB graph and calculations, Bloomberg data
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Analys

Brent crude is now trading below its nominal 2018-19 average in EUR/barrel terms

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crude gained a meager 0.65% yesterday with a close of USD 66.55/b. That was not much given that US equity markets rallied 2% yesterday with Nasdaq now is almost back to its pre ”Liberation Day” level. Brent crude is trading unchanged this morning with little impulse to do anything it seems.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Equity markets have gotten a boost along with easing US tariff rhetoric. The Brent crude oil price has however not gotten the same rebound and is today still trading USD 8.5/b lower than its USD 75/b level from 2 April.

Two factors at hand here: Expectations of softer growth and more oil from OPEC+. One is that global growth in 2025 will still take a hit with softer growth and thus softer oil demand growth due to the US tariff-turmoil. Even if rhetoric has eased. The second is that OPEC+ has upped its production plans with a softer market as a result going forward. The latter message to the market happened almost at the same time as the ”Liberation Day” on 2 April.

Spot market still as tight as it was on 2 April. Still, the front-end market is more or less equally tight today as it was on 2 April. The average Brent, WTI and Dubai 1-3mth time-spread is USD 1.4/b today versus USD 1.5/b on 2. April.

The market setup/pricing is thus that the market is still tight, but that surplus will come. Either because global growth will slow due to US Tariff-turmoil or because OPEC+ will add more barrels.

Will OPEC+ resolve its internal quarrels? Worth remembering on the latter is that the latest more aggressive OPEC+ production growth plan is due to internal quarrels over quota breaches by Iraq and Kazakhstan. OPEC+ could potentially ease those growth plans just as quickly if the internal quarrel is resolved.

Brent crude in EUR/barrel is now trading at the nominal level from 2018-2019. That is nominal! Not taking account of any kind of inflation which cumulatively is up 20-30% since primo 2018. The average, nominal Brent crude oil price in 2018-2019 was EUR 59.1/b. The front-month Brent crude oil price is now EUR 58.4/b. And Brent forward 36mth is only EUR 55.5/b and in real terms one could subtract some 5-10% for the next three years from that nominal forward price. Quite sweet for consumers!

Brent has rebounded along with equities (here US Russel 2000 index in orange), but the rebound in oil has become more hesitant the latest days. Brent still trading USD 8.5/b below its pre ”Liberation Day” of USD 75/b

Brent has rebounded along with equities (here US Russel 2000 index in orange)
Source: Bloomberg graph and data, SEB selection

Brent crude forward curves. Today versus 2 April (’Liberation Day’). Still a tight current market but now with expectation that surplus is coming.

Brent crude forward curves.
Source: Bloomberg graph and data, SEB selection

The Brent crude oil price versus the average Brent, WTI and Dubai 1-3mth time-spread. The latter is today on par with where it was on 2 April while the Brent 1mth price is down USD 8.5/b.

The Brent crude oil price versus the average Brent, WTI and Dubai 1-3mth time-spread.
Source: SEB graph and calculations, Bloomberg data.

Brent crude in EUR/b is down to its 2018-2019 nominal price level. Not bad for euro-based oil consumers!!

Brent crude in EUR/b is down to its 2018-2019 nominal price level. Not bad for euro-based oil consumers!!
Source: Bloomberg graph and data

Yearly averages for Brent crude in EUR/barrel. The Brent 1mth in EUR/barrel is today trading below its nominal average from 2018-2019 of EUR 59.1/b. And 36mth forward Brent is trading at only EUR 55.5/b. And that is nominally both ways. Add in some 20-30% inflation since primo 2018 and 5-10% additional inflation next three years. Think real terms!

Yearly averages for Brent crude in EUR/barrel.
Source: SEB calculations and graph, Bloomberg data

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Analys

OPEC+ tensions resurface: Brent slides to $66.6

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crude prices have lost the positive momentum seen from Monday evening through midday yesterday. The price initially bottomed out at USD 65.7 per barrel on Monday afternoon, before climbing steadily by USD 3 to USD 68.7 on Wednesday morning. However, that upward momentum quickly reversed course. Brent tumbled nearly USD 3.4, hitting a weekly low of USD 65.3 per barrel before recovering some losses. As of this morning, it trades at USD 66.6 – a reflection of continued and substantial volatility.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Market fundamentals have largely remained in the background, with tariff rhetoric still dominating headlines. However, yesterday’s drop was clearly driven by the supply side of the equation, after reports emerged that several OPEC+ members are pushing for an accelerated oil output increase in June.

The timing of this move – amid global trade uncertainty and softening demand – may seem counterintuitive. But internal rifts within OPEC+ appear to be taking precedence. In May, Saudi Arabia already surprised the market with an output hike aimed at disciplining quota violators. That move failed to restrict Kazakhstan, the group’s largest overproducer, and has now triggered discussions of yet another sizeable production boost in June.

A later statement from Kazakhstan’s energy ministry, pledging renewed compliance, may have helped lift crude prices slightly this morning.

The next OPEC+ meeting is set for May 5, with the proposed June output hike expected to top the agenda. The group will likely choose between a scheduled, incremental increase of 138,000 barrels per day, or a more aggressive jump of 411,000 barrels per day – equivalent to ish three months’ worth of increases rolled into one. The latter scenario would put downward pressure on oil prices and highlight deepening tensions within OPEC+, while also exacerbating concerns in a market already clouded by weak demand expectations.

Although the final decision on volumes remains unclear, OPEC+ has demonstrated it still has pricing power, and that it can pull prices lower quickly if it chooses to do so.

________

US DOE DATA

U.S. refinery activity picked up in the week ending April 18, with crude inputs rising by 326,000 barrels per day to a total of 15.9 million. Utilization rates also climbed to 88.1%. Gasoline output strengthened to 10.1 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel production edged lower to 4.6 million.

Crude imports declined by 412,000 barrels per day to 5.6 million last week. Over the past month, import volumes have averaged 6.1 million barrels per day – down 6.8% compared to the same period a year ago. Gasoline and distillate imports came in at 858,000 and 97,000 barrels per day, respectively.

Inventories were mixed. Crude oil inventories (excl. SPR) rose slightly by 0.2 million barrels to 443.1 million, still 5% below the five-year average. Gasoline inventories posted a sharp draw of 4.5 million barrels and are now 3% under seasonal norms. Diesel inventories dropped by 2.4 million barrels, leaving levels 13% below the five-year average. Propane inventories rose by 2.3 million but remained 7% under typical levels. Total commercial petroleum inventories saw a net decline of 0.7 million barrels on the week.

Product demand was generally stable. Total products supplied averaged 19.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up 0.4% year-on-year. Gasoline demand slipped by 0.4%, while distillates and jet fuel rose sharply, by 12.8% and 13.8%, respectively.

US DOE inventories
US Crude inventories
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