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Analys

SEB – Råvarukommentarer vecka 15 2012

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Sammanfattning: Föregående vecka

  • Analyser - Prognos på priser för råvarorBrett råvaruindex: -0,10 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI TR Index
  • Energi: +0,28 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Energy TR Index
  • Ädelmetaller: -2,46 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Precious Metals TR Index
  • Industrimetaller: -0,22 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Industrial Metals TR Index
  • Jordbruk: -0,06 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Agriculture TR Index

Kortsiktig marknadsvy:

  • Guld: Neutral/köp
  • Olja: Neutral/sälj
  • Koppar: Sälj
  • Majs: Sälj
  • Vete: Neutral/sälj

Guld

Guldkurs januari 2011 till april 2012

  • Guldpriset föll 1,5 procent förra veckan och nådde på onsdagen tillfälligt 1614 dollar, den lägsta nivån på 12 veckor. Nedtonade förväntningar om ytterligare stimulanser från Federal Reserve fick guldet att falla och dollarn steg mot de flesta övriga valutor.
  • Ekonomin utvecklas svagt i Europa, vilket avspeglas i ett svagt inköpschefsindex. Detta låg för mars månad under den nivå som indikerar en industriell expansion.
  • Vidare har oron för Spanien tagit fart igen. Landet har svårt att nå tillräckliga besparingar för att få bukt med ett allt för stort budgetunderkott. Detta samtidigt som Tyskland ser en stigande inflation på grund av de största löneökningarna på 20 år.
  • I Indien fortsätter juvelerarnas strejk, vilken nu har pågått i två veckor. Strejken är en protest mot en nytillkommen ökning på skatten av obearbetat importerat guld. Kortsiktigt bör dock inte guldpriset påverkas nämnvärt av strejken.
  • Fredagens amerikanska arbetsmarknadssiffror kom ut sämre än förväntat och öppnar upp för nya spekulationer avseende ett nytt paket av kvantitativa lättnader i USA. Detta bör kunna ge stöd åt guldet den närmaste tiden.
  • Teknisk Analys: Marknaden har utvecklats något svagare under den senaste veckan då vi fallit och stannat under den nedre delen av medelvärdesbanden. Detta förändrar dock ingenting i det större perspektivet varför vi fortsätter vårt sökande efter slutet på innevarande korrektion. För att den långsiktigt positiva bilden ska ändras krävs det att våg C’s botten bryts.

Teknisk analys på guldkursen den 10 april 2012

Olja

Oljekursen januari 2011 till april 2012

  • Oljepriset föll med 1,6 procent förra veckan. Goda industrisignaler från USA bidrog till att oljepriset lyfte i början av veckan, men oljan backade kraftigt på tisdagen efter dämpade förväntningar om nya penningpolitiska lättnader i landet. Ska ytterligare lättnadsåtgärder behövas i USA anser Fed att ekonomin ska försämras ytterligare och inflationen bör sjunka under två procent.
  • Statistik från American Petroleum Institute (API) visade att lagren av amerikansk råolja steg med 7,8 miljoner fat till den högsta nivån sedan juli 2007. Den lagerstatistik som energidepartementet presenterade på onsdagen visade att lagren av råolja steg med 9 miljoner fat.
  • Saudiarabien har annonserat att man inte kommer att dra ned på oljeexporten. Detta kommer inte ens ske om man i väst väljer att öppna upp sina strategiska oljereserver. Enligt Reuters producerade Saudiarabien 10 miljoner fat per dag under mars, vilket bidrog till ökade råoljelager.
  • Fredagens arbetsmarknadsstatistik från USA för mars blev en besvikelse och antalet sysselsatta ökade med endast 120 000 personer. Förvisso föll arbetslösheten, men förbättringen kan främst relateras till ett lägre arbetsdeltagande. Oljepriset föll tillsammans med aktier och råvaror på denna nyhet.
  • Teknisk Analys: Efter det misslyckade brottet upp ur den triangellika formationen (samma som i koppar) har vi nu rört oss nedåt och kommit fram till stöd området. Givet det falska brottet norrut kan vi nog med tillförsikt se an ett brott söderut. Dessutom, i och med den senaste utvecklingen, ser hela formationen ut att ta formen av en rundad topp.

TA på oljekursen den 10 april 2012

Koppar

Kopparkursen från januari 2011 till april 2012

  • Kopparpriset föll med 3,3 procent förra veckan. Under början av veckan steg dock priset efter oväntat starka PMI-siffror från Kina (53.1 mot förväntat 50.8), men efter att Federal Reserve signalerat om återhållsam penningpolitik föll metallen tillsammans med övriga marknader under den fortsatta veckan.
  • Enligt Bloomberg steg LME:s kopparlager förra veckan. Marknaden förväntar sig högre lagernivåer, detta då efterfrågan på koppar från Kina har dämpats den senaste tiden. Kinesisk kopparimport föll i mars jämfört med föregående månad som en konsekvens av höga inhemska kopparlager. Kina står för närvarande för cirka 40 procent av världens kopparkonsumtion.
  • Under mars månad överraskade Kinas inflation på uppsidan, detta efter att priserna har stigit med 3.6% under de senaste 12 månaderna. Siffran minskar sannolikheten för ytterligare monetära stimulanser.
  • En del befarar nu att den kinesiska ekonomin är på väg mot en kraftigare inbromsning än vad man tidigare förväntat sig. Även om landets export- och importtillväxt är fortsatt positiv god har vi kunnat se en väsentlig inbromsning, vilket tynger kopparpriset. Med detta sagt bibehåller vi vår säljrekommendation.
  • Teknisk Analys: Efter att två gånger ha brutit upp ur triangeln och båda gångerna omedelbart tvingats till reträtt får vi nog anse att nedåtrisken för innevarande vecka är stor, ja till och med mycket stor (falska brott ur ett intervall leder ofta till ett brott i motsatt riktning). Så ett varningen finger är nog på sin plats skulle 8131 stödet ge vika.

TA på kopparpriset den 10 april 2012

Majs

Kursutveckling på majs (cme) tom april 2012

  • Vår vy om en påskvecka utan tydlig riktning, men med positiva undertoner, visade sig stämma ganska väl. Priset fortsatte på måndagen upp något i efterdyningarna av fredagens kraftiga uppgång, men har sedan dess legat runt 6,5 USD/bushel.
  • Enligt Bloomberg ser det denna vecka ljust ut för planteringen av den amerikanska majsskörden. Det varma och torra vädret öppnar upp för en tidig plantering, vilket i regel brukar innebära god avkastning för majsen.
  • Enligt det amerikanska jordbruksdepartementet (USDA) har de amerikanska bönderna nu planterat 7 % av sin majs. Förra året hade 3 % planterats vid denna tidpunkt och snittet för de senaste 5 åren ligger på 2 %.
  • Även om investerarna efter de senaste veckornas positiva prisutveckling bör återvända till majsmarknaden tror vi inte att detta kommer att kunna ge något starkare stöd åt priset. Man ska inte glömma att den befintliga lagernivån är låg och efterfrågan fortsatt god, men detta bör vara väl inprisat och således ligger risken på nedsidan de kommande veckorna.
  • Teknisk Analys: Efter den kraftfulla studsen den 30/3 har marknaden i princip gjort ingenting. För att utlösa någon nämnvärd aktivitet måste nog vi bryta antingen över 675 ¾ eller under 624 ½. Däremellan råder stiltje.

Teknisk analys på majspriset den 10 april 2012

Vete

Kursutveckling på vete tom april 2012

  • Till skillnad från majsen orkade inte vetepriset hålla sig kvar på de nivåer som vi kunde se i början av veckan. Vinsthemtagningar tillsammans med förbättrade utsikter för den amerikanska produktionen av vintervete tryckte priset nedåt.
  • Kvaliteten på det amerikanska vintervetet får än så länge anses vara förhållandevis god. Enligt söndagens rapport från USDA är 10 % av skörden dålig eller mycket dålig. Detta kan jämföras med förra året då motsvarande siffra var 36 %. (Vintervetet odlas under hösten/vintern och skördas under sommaren.)
  • Planteringen av det amerikanska vårvetet går mycket bra. Enligt USDA:s senaste rapport har 21 % planterats. Förra året hade 3 % av vårvetet planterats vid denna tidpunkt och snittet för de senaste 5 åren ligger på 5 %. (Vårvetet planteras under våren och skördas på sensommaren.)
  • Vidare gick den amerikanska exporten av vete ned något under föregående vecka, vilket tyder på en något svagare efterfrågan på vete.
  • Fundamentalt bedömer att utsikterna för vete denna vecka är negativa, men de tekniska signalerna gör oss återhållsamma.
  • Teknisk Analys: Även ett andra besök i 55dagarsbandet renderade köpande, något som vi lägger på det positiva kontot. Nästa steg bör bli att ta ut 215 motståndet och därefter stör dörren vidöppen för nya trendtoppar.

TA på vetepriset den 10 april 2012

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Disclaimer

The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”).

Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.

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Analys

Very relaxed at USD 75/b. Risk barometer will likely fluctuate to higher levels with Brent into the 80ies or higher coming 2-3 weeks

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent rallied 12% last week. But closed the week below USD 75/b and it is still there. Very relaxed. Brent crude rallied 12% to USD 78.5/b in the early hours of Friday as Israel attacked Iran. The highest level since 27 January this year. The level didn’t hold and Brent closed the day at USD 74.23/b which was up 5.7% on the day and 11.7% on the week. On Friday it was still very unclear how extensive and lasting this war between Iran and Israel would be. Energy assets in Iran had still not been touched and Iran had not targeted other Middle East countries’ energy assets or US military bases in the region. As such, the Brent crude closed the week comfortably at around USD 75/b. Which one cannot argue is very much of a stressed price level. 

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Israel is targeting Iran’s domestic energy infrastructure. Not its energy export facilities. For now. Over the weekend Israel has widened its targets to include fuel depots in Tehran, refineries supplying Iran domestically and also a processing plant at Iran’s South Pars gas field – the world’s largest. So far it appears that Israel has refrained from hurting Iranian oil and gas export facilities. Maybe adhering to Trump’s whish of low oil prices. Trump has been begging for a lower oil price. Would be very frustrating for him if Israel started to blow up Iran’s export facilities. Focus instead looks to be on Iran’s domestic energy supply and infrastructure. To weaken and disable the operations of Iran as a country while leaving Iran’s energy export facilities intact for now at least. That is probably why Brent crude this morning is only trading at USD 74.9/b with little change from Friday. An incredible relaxed price level given what is going on in the Middle East. 

Israel seems to try to do to Iran what Israel recently did to Lebanon. Israel now seems to have close to total control of the Iranian air space. So called ”Air Supremacy” something which is rarely achieved according to Phillips P. O’Brian (see comment on this below with link). This is giving Israel close to total freedom in the airspace over Iran. Israel now seems to try to do to Iran what Israel recently did to Lebanon. Take out military and political commanders. Take out the air defenses. Then grind the rest of its defensive capacities to the ground over some time.

Continuous pressure. No rest. No letting up for several weeks seems likely. The current situation is a very rare opportunity for Israel to attack Iran with full force. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian strongholds in Syria, are all severely weakened or disabled. And now also Air Supremacy of the airspace over Iran. It is natural to assume that Israel will not let this opportunity pass. As such it will likely continue with full force over several weeks to come, at least, with Israel grinding down the rest of Iran’s defensive capabilities and domestic energy supply facilities as far as possible. Continuous pressure. No rest. No letting up.

What to do with Fordow? Will Iran jump to weapons grade uranium? The big question is of course Iran’s nuclear facilities. Natanz with 16,000 enrichment centrifuges was destroyed by Israel on Friday. It was only maximum 20 meters below ground. It was where Iran had mass enrichment to low enrichment levels. Fordow is a completely different thing. It is 500 meters deep under a mountain. It is where enrichment towards weapons grade Uranium takes place. Iran today has 408 kg of highly enriched uranium (IAEA) which can be enriched to weapons grade. It is assumed that Iran will only need 2-3 days to make 25 kg of weapons grade uranium and three weeks to make enough for 9 nuclear warheads. How Israel decides to deal with Fordow is the big question. Ground forces? Help from the US?

Also, if Iran is pushed to the end of the line, then it might decide to enrich to weapons grade which again will lead to a cascade of consequences.

Brent is extremely relaxed at USD 75/b. But at times over coming 2-3 weeks the risk barometer will likely move higher with Brent moving into the 80ies or higher. The oil price today is extremely relaxed with the whole thing. Lots of OPEC+ spare capacity allows loss of Iranian oil exports. Israeli focus on Iran’s domestic energy systems rather than on its exports facilities is also soothing the market. But at times over the coming two, three weeks the risk barometer will likely move significantly higher as it might seem like the situation in the Middle East may move out of control. So Brent into the 80ies or higher seems highly likely in the weeks to come. At times at least. And if it all falls apart, the oil price will of course move well above 100.

Phillips P. OBrien on ”Air Supremacy” (embedded link): Air power historian Philip Meilinger: ”Air Superiority is defined as being able to conduct air operations “without prohibitive interference by the opposing force.” Air Supremacy goes further, wherein the opposing air force is incapable of effective interference.”

Thus, air supremacy is an entirely different beast from air superiority. It occurs when one power basically controls the skies over an enemy, and can operate practically anywhere/time that it wants without much fear of enemy interference in its operations.

The US had Air Supremacy over Germany in the second World War, but only at the very end when it was close to over. It only had Air Superiority in the Vietnam war, but not Supremacy. During Desert Storm in 1990-1991 however it did have Supremacy with devastating consequences for the enemy. (last paragraph is a condensed summary).

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Analys

Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b to make cheating unprofitable for Kazakhstan

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent jumping 2.4% as OPEC+ lifts quota by ”only” 411 kb/d in July. Brent crude is jumping 2.4% this morning to USD 64.3/b following the decision by OPEC+ this weekend to lift the production cap of ”Voluntary 8” (V8) by 411 kb/d in July and not more as was feared going into the weekend. The motivation for the triple hikes of 411 kb/d in May and June and now also in July has been a bit unclear: 1) Cheating by Kazakhstan and Iraq, 2) Muhammed bin Salman listening to Donald Trump for more oil and a lower oil price in exchange for weapons deals and political alignments in the Middle East and lastly 3) Higher supply to meet higher demand for oil this summer. The argument that they are taking back market share was already decided in the original plan of unwinding the 2.2 mb/d of V8 voluntary cuts by the end of 2026. The surprise has been the unexpected speed with monthly increases of 3×137 kb/d/mth rather than just 137 kb/d monthly steps.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

No surplus yet. Time-spreads tightened last week. US inventories fell the week before last. In support of point 3) above it is worth noting that the Brent crude oil front-end backwardation strengthened last week (sign of tightness) even when the market was fearing for a production hike of more than 411 kb/d for July. US crude, diesel and gasoline stocks fell the week before last with overall commercial stocks falling 0.7 mb versus a normal rise this time of year of 3-6 mb per week. So surplus is not here yet. And more oil from OPEC+ is welcomed by consumers.

Saudi Arabia calling the shots with Russia objecting. This weekend however we got to know a little bit more. Saudi Arabia was predominantly calling the shots and decided the outcome. Russia together with Oman and Algeria opposed the hike in July and instead argued for zero increase. What this alures to in our view is that it is probably the cheating by Kazakhstan and Iraq which is at the heart of the unexpectedly fast monthly increases. Saudi Arabia cannot allow it to be profitable for the individual members to cheat. And especially so when Kazakhstan explicitly and blatantly rejects its quota obligation stating that they have no plans of cutting production from 1.77 mb/d to 1.47 mb/d. And when not even Russia is able to whip Kazakhstan into line, then the whole V8 project is kind of over.

Is it simply a decision by Saudi Arabia to unwind faster altogether? What is still puzzling though is that despite the three monthly hikes of 411 kb/d, the revival of the 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts is still kind of orderly. Saudi Arabia could have just abandoned the whole V8 project from one month to the next. But we have seen no explicit communication that the plan of reviving the cuts by the end of 2026 has been abandoned. It may be that it is simply a general change of mind by Saudi Arabia where the new view is that production cuts altogether needs to be unwinded sooner rather than later. For Saudi Arabia it means getting its production back up to 10 mb/d. That implies first unwinding the 2.2 mb/d and then the next 1.6 mb/d.

Brent would likely crash with a fast unwind of 2.2 + 1.6 mb/d by year end. If Saudi Arabia has decided on a fast unwind it would meant that the group would lift the quotas by 411 kb/d both in August and in September. It would then basically be done with the 2.2 mb/d revival. Thereafter directly embark on reviving the remaining 1.6 mb/d. That would imply a very sad end of the year for the oil price. It would then probably crash in Q4-25. But it is far from clear that this is where we are heading.

Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b or lower to make it unprofitable for Kazakhstan to cheat. To make it unprofitable for Kazakhstan to cheat. Kazakhstan is currently producing 1.77 mb/d versus its quota which before the hikes stood at 1.47 kb/d. If they had cut back to the quota level they might have gotten USD 70/b or USD 103/day. Instead they choose to keep production at 1.77 mb/d. For Saudi Arabia to make it a loss-making business for Kazakhstan to cheat the oil price needs to fall below USD 58/b ( 103/1.77).

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Analys

All eyes on OPEC V8 and their July quota decision on Saturday

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Tariffs or no tariffs played ping pong with Brent crude yesterday. Brent crude traded to a joyous high of USD 66.13/b yesterday as a US court rejected Trump’s tariffs. Though that ruling was later overturned again with Brent closing down 1.2% on the day to USD 64.15/b. 

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

US commercial oil inventories fell 0.7 mb last week versus a seasonal normal rise of 3-6 mb. US commercial crude and product stocks fell 0.7 mb last week which is fairly bullish since the seasonal normal is for a rise of  4.3 mb. US crude stocks fell 2.8 mb, Distillates fell 0.7 mb and Gasoline stocks fell 2.4 mb.

All eyes are now on OPEC V8 (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Algeria, Russia, Oman, Kazakhstan) which will make a decision tomorrow on what to do with production for July. Overall they are in a process of placing 2.2 mb/d of cuts back into the market over a period stretching out to December 2026. Following an expected hike of 137 kb/d in April they surprised the market by lifting production targets by 411 kb/d for May and then an additional 411 kb/d again for June. It is widely expected that the group will decide to lift production targets by another 411 kb/d also for July. That is probably mostly priced in the market. As such it will probably not have all that much of a bearish bearish price impact on Monday if they do.

It is still a bit unclear what is going on and why they are lifting production so rapidly rather than at a very gradual pace towards the end of 2026. One argument is that the oil is needed in the market as Middle East demand rises sharply in summertime. Another is that the group is partially listening to Donald Trump which has called for more oil and a lower price. The last is that Saudi Arabia is angry with Kazakhstan which has produced 300 kb/d more than its quota with no indications that they will adhere to their quota.

So far we have heard no explicit signal from the group that they have abandoned the plan of measured increases with monthly assessments so that the 2.2 mb/d is fully back in the market by the end of 2026. If the V8 group continues to lift quotas by 411 kb/d every month they will have revived the production by the full 2.2 mb/d already in September this year. There are clearly some expectations in the market that this is indeed what they actually will do. But this is far from given. Thus any verbal wrapping around the decision for July quotas on Saturday will be very important and can have a significant impact on the oil price. So far they have been tightlipped beyond what they will do beyond the month in question and have said nothing about abandoning the ”gradually towards the end of 2026” plan. It is thus a good chance that they will ease back on the hikes come August, maybe do no changes for a couple of months or even cut the quotas back a little if needed.

Significant OPEC+ spare capacity will be placed back into the market over the coming 1-2 years. What we do know though is that OPEC+ as a whole as well as the V8 subgroup specifically have significant spare capacity at hand which will be placed back into the market over the coming year or two or three. Probably an increase of around 3.0 – 3.5 mb/d. There is only two ways to get it back into the market. The oil price must be sufficiently low so that 1) Demand growth is stronger and 2) US shale oil backs off. In combo allowing the spare capacity back into the market.

Low global inventories stands ready to soak up 200-300 mb of oil. What will cushion the downside for the oil price for a while over the coming year is that current, global oil inventories are low and stand ready to soak up surplus production to the tune of 200-300 mb.

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