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Price action Rebounding from $50/b but running into headwind from stronger USD

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - CommoditySEB Brent crude front month price forecast:
Q2-17: $57.5/b
Q3-17: $55.0/b
Q4-17: $52.5/b

Price action – Rebounding from $50/b but running into headwind from stronger USD
After having touched a low of $49.71/b last Wednesday Brent crude front month contract revived to touch a high of $53.1/b yesterday. This morning it is trading down 0.4% at $52.7/b. Prices found good support at the $50/b level with a solid influx of natural oil consumers jumping in securing forward hedges at lower levels. The oil price recovery over the last week is however facing headwinds from a 1.3% stronger USD and might thus run out of steam.

Crude oil comment – No reason for OPEC to roll cuts into H2
There seems to be an almost unanimous view that OPEC will roll their H1-17 cuts into H2-17. We cannot really understand why they should do that. OECD inventories declined all through the second half of 2016 and ended down y/y in December for the first time in quite a few years. And that was without the help of OPEC! The market has been confused by the fact that inventories in weekly data rose some 100 mb through the first two and a half months of the year. The market was also disappointed when it heard that OECD inventories rose 48 mb month/month in January. Do note however that the normal seasonal pattern is for OECD inventories to rise by 30 mb in January. Thus they only rose by 18 mb more than normal. Total crude and product stocks in the US have declined 4 weeks out of the last 6 weeks and we strongly believe that inventories will declined steadily from here onwards. When OPEC meets in Vienna on May 25th the perspective will be

1) Declining inventories (i.e. market is in balance to deficit)
2) A flat to backwardated crude oil curve. I.e. no spot price discount to longer dated contracts
3) US crude production standing close to previous peak and rising rapidly
4) Demand will jump some 1.9 mb/d from H1-17 og H2-17 seasonally with little risk for surplus

Thus the natural communication from OPEC following their forthcoming May 25th meeting in Vienna would be that the market is in balance. Actually it is in deficit and inventories are drawing down. There is no longer a spot price discount to longer dated contracts. I.e. there is very little stress in the market due to surplus oil and OPEC receives no discounted cash flow versus longer dated prices. I.e. there is little economic reason for OPEC to cut as they then are receiving a fair price for their oil (equal to longer dated prices). A further cut would only endanger OPEC’s market share through unnecessary stimulus of US shale oil production. That last dimension will be highly accentuated at the meeting on the 25th of May since if we just extrapolate US crude oil production so far this year it may stand at 9.5 mb/d at their May meeting. US crude oil production is now growing just as fast (marginal annualized pace of 1.5 mb/d) as it did from 2011 to 2015. The hypothesis from OPEC’s November meeting in 2016 that US shale oil production will only recover gradually as long as the oil price stays below $60/b has been totally busted. The empirical evidence is that when the mid-term WTI curve (one to two year horizon forward prices) averaged $52/b in H2 then US shale oil rigs rose by 7 rigs/week. When those forward prices instead rose to $55-56/b following OPEC’s decision to cut the weekly rig additions rose to about 10 rigs/week.

OPEC is likely to conclude that all looks good. Market is in balance to deficit. Inventories are drawing down. There is no longer any spot price rebate in the market and little stress from surplus oil to be seen. Demand will rise strongly into H2-17. Thus OPEC is likely to move back into operation putting their 1.16 mb/d H1-17 cut aside and revisit the question of cuts at their next meeting in Vienna at the end of 2017. They will like to look like they are in control and an extension of cuts into H2-17 will stimulate US shale oil production to an extent that will make it look like they are out of control.

We expect crude oil prices to get a brief set-back when OPEC announces such a decision. But we do expect it to be brief and with limited consequences. We expect Brent crude oil prices to end the year with an average of $52.5/b in Q4-17. We expect the curve to be some $3/b in backwardation at that time which implies that the one to two year forward prices at that time will trade around $50/b. Since the WTI curve is trading at some $2/b below the Brent crude curve it will mean that the mid-term (1 to 2 year forward) WTI crude oil curve will then trade at around $48/b. We expect that to dampen the current very strong weekly rig additions which we see currently.

Ch1: US shale oil rigs continues to rise strongly
Last week the number of US shale oil rigs rose by 16 rigs or 9 rigs more than our projection
So far the average weekly US shale oil rig additions stands at 9.75 rigs/week

US shale oil rigs continues to rise strongly

Ch2: SEB US crude oil production projection lifted by 12 kb/d in 2017, by 49 kb/d in 2018 and by 68 kb/d in 2019
Total additional cumulative US crude oil production over the next three years rose by 47 million barrels as a result of 16 rigs being added last week versus our expected 7 rigs
We expect the US EIA to lift its US crude oil production projection again in its forthcoming April report reflecting the fact that 51 shale oil rigs were added to the market in March.

SEB US crude oil production projection lifted by 12 kb/d in 2017, by 49 kb/d in 2018 and by 68 kb/d in 2019

Ch3: SEB US crude oil production projection graph

SEB US crude oil production projection graph

Ch4: SEB global crude oil supply demand balance

SEB global crude oil supply demand balance

Ch5: SEB projected OECD end of year inventories

SEB projected OECD end of year inventories

Ch6: Time development of SEB’s projected 2019 end of year OECD oil inventories versus a normal of 2700 million barrels
A deep draw in OECD inventories at the end of 2019 has become much less pronounced as rig count is rising much faster than expected thus lifting our US crude oil production projection

Time development of SEB’s projected 2019 end of year OECD oil inventories versus a normal of 2700 million barrels

Ch6: Time development of SEB’s dynamic Brent crude oil price forecast
Much less price squeeze risk in 2019 as the balance has softened with higher US production projection

Time development of SEB’s dynamic Brent crude oil price forecast

Ch7: US crude oil production increasing in a stright line
Potentially closing in at 9.5 mb/d when OPEC meets in Vienna on May 25th

US crude oil production increasing in a stright line

Ch8: Volatility is trending lower with yet more downside to come we expect

Volatility is trending lower with yet more downside to come we expect

Ch9: Weekly inventory data are starting to show a draw

Weekly inventory data are starting to show a draw

Ch10: And this is what we expect OECD inventories will do in 2017 (We assume OPEC will not cut in H2-17)
But due to US shale oil revival there won’t be much draws in 2018
Thus all through 2017 and 2018 the OECD inventories will stay above normal with few pressure points in the global oil market

And this is what we expect OECD inventories will do in 2017 (We assume OPEC will not cut in H2-17)

Kind regards

Bjarne Schieldrop
Chief analyst, Commodities
SEB Markets
Merchant Banking

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Analys

How renewable fuels are accelerating the decarbonisation of transport

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WisdomTree

On 16 November 2022, UK’s Royal Air Force (RAF) Voyager aircraft, the military variant of the Airbus A330, took to the skies for 90 minutes over Oxfordshire. What looked like a routine test flight in its outward appearance was ultimately deemed ground-breaking. Why? It was a world-first military transporter aircraft flight, and the first of any aircraft type in the UK to be completed using 100% sustainable jet fuel.  

Mobeen Tahir, Director, Macroeconomic Research & Tactical Solutions, WisdomTree
Mobeen Tahir, Director, Macroeconomic Research & Tactical Solutions, WisdomTree

What are renewable fuels?

Renewable hydrocarbon biofuels (also called green or drop-in biofuels) are fuels produced from biomass sources through a variety of biological, thermal, and chemical processes. These products are chemically identical to petroleum gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel.

In other words, renewable fuels are sources of energy chemically identical to fossil fuels but produced from domestic, commercial, or agricultural waste (see Figure 1 below).

Figure 1: Converting waste into energy

Waste types and refinery output

Why the excitement?

Renewable fuels, like renewable diesel and sustainable jet fuel, can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by around 80-90% compared to fossil fuels. And because they burn much cleaner, engine filters remain cleaner for longer reducing the need for maintenance. Furthermore, given used cooking oil, vegetable oil, processing waste, and animal fat waste are used as inputs, the production of these fuels reduces biowaste, thereby cutting emissions from landfills.

This makes renewable fuels a key component of the circular economy. Humans have largely operated on the linear model historically when it comes to utilising natural resources. The circular model, in contrast, is much less wasteful and seeks to recycle as much as possible (see Figure 2 below).

Figure 2: The Circular Economy

Circular economy
Source: WisdomTree, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2023

The most exciting thing about renewable fuels is the immediacy with which they can make an impact. The reason why they are referred to as drop-in fuels is that they can replace fossil fuels in internal combustion engines with little or no modification required. So, if supply was abundant enough, forms of transport which cannot be electrified easily like heavy duty trucks, ships, and aeroplanes can be switched across to renewable fuels making a significant improvement to the environmental footprint. According to BP, “A return flight between London and San Francisco has a carbon footprint per economy ticket of nearly 1 tonne of CO2 equivalent. With the aviation industry expected to double to over 8 billion passengers by 2050, it is essential that we act to reduce aviation’s carbon emissions.”

The challenge

Renewable fuels or biofuels are still in their infancy. This means the obvious hurdle to overcome is cost competitiveness with fossil fuels. Cost estimates vary, but figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) provide a useful sense for the ballpark. In May 2022, IATA stated that the average worldwide price of jet fuel is about $4.15 per gallon compared to the US average price of a gallon of sustainable aviation fuel, which is about $8.67.

So, roughly double the price of the incumbent polluting technology. This is not a bad starting point at all. Considering how rapidly the cost of energy storage in batteries has fallen in the last decade, renewable fuels could become competitive quite soon if sufficient investment is made and economies of scale are achieved. IATA also predicts that renewable fuels could make up 2% of all aviation fuels by 2025, which could become a tipping point in their competitiveness.

Businesses are acting

Businesses pursuing their own net zero targets have already started exploring renewable fuels to minimise their waste. Darling Ingredients Inc, which produces its trademark Diamond Green Diesel from recycled animal fats, inedible corn oil, and used cooking oil, was chosen by fast food chain Chick-fil-A in March 2022 to turn its used cooking oil into clean transportation fuel.

Similarly, McDonald’s entered into a partnership with Neste Corporation in 2020 to convert its used vegetable oil into renewable diesel and fuel the trucks that make deliveries to its restaurants. According to TortoiseEcofin, both Darling Ingredients and Neste have a net negative carbon footprint given emissions produced by these businesses are lower that the emissions avoided because of their renewable fuels.

A final word

Renewable fuels alone will not tackle climate change. No single solution can. But they can help us make meaningful progress. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasises how crucial it is for the world to halve its greenhouse gas emissions this decade to at least have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5oC. This means that solutions with an immediate effect have an important role to play. Biofuels can cut emissions from waste in landfills and provide much cleaner alternatives to fossil fuels to help accelerate the world’s decarbonisation efforts. They don’t require different engines to be of use. They just need funding to reach scale.

Mobeen Tahir, Director, Macroeconomic Research & Tactical Solutions, WisdomTree

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SEB Metals Weekly: China Covid exit is bullish for metals

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China Covid exit is bullish for metals

Softer inflation, slight macro-optimism, and China taking a rapid exit from Covid restrictions. Markets have become more optimistic. Inflation indices have eased and that has created some hopes that central banks won’t lift interest to a level that will kill the economy in 2023. Natural gas prices in Europe have fallen sharply. This has suddenly reduced energy-inflationary pressure and removed the direst downside economic risks for the region. But general market optimism is far from super-strong yet. The S&P 500 index has only gained 1.9% since our previous forecast on 1 Nov 2021, and oil prices are down nearly 10% in a reflection of concerns for global growth. China has however removed all Covid-restrictions almost overnight. It is now set to move out of its three years of Covid-19 isolation and lockdowns at record speed. Industrial metals are up 20% and the Hong Kong equity index is up 40% as a result (since 1 Nov-22). China’s sudden and rapid Covid-19 exit is plain and simply bullish for the Chinese economy to the point that mobility indices are already rebounding quickly. SEB’s general view is that inflation impulses will fade quickly. No need then for central banks across the world to kill the global economy with further extreme rate hikes. These developments have removed much of the downside price risks for metals in 2023 and we have to a large degree shifted our 2024 forecast to 2023.

Lower transparency, more geopolitics, more borders, and higher prices and exponential spikes. The first decade of this century was about emerging markets, the BRICs, the commodity price boom, the commodity investment boom, and free markets with free flow of commodities and labor with China and Russia hand in hand with western countries walking towards the future. High capex spending in the first decade led to plentiful supply and low prices for commodities from 2011 to 2020. A world of plenty, friends everywhere, free flow of everything, and no need to worry. The coming decade will likely be very different. Supply growth will struggle due to mediocre capex spending over the past 10 years. Prices will on average be significantly higher. There will be frequent exponential price spikes whenever demand hits supply barriers. Price transparency will be significantly reduced due to borders, taxes, sanctions, geopolitical alignments, and carbon intensities. Prices will be much less homogenous. Aluminium will no longer be just one price and one quality. Who made it, where was it made, where will it be consumed and what the carbon content will create a range of prices. Same for most other metals.

Copper: Struggling supply and China revival propel copper prices higher. Unrest in Peru is creating significant supply risks for copper as the country accounts for 10% of the global supply. Chile accounts for 27% of global production. Production there is disappointing with Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper mining company, struggling to hit production targets. The Cobre Panama mine in Panama is at risk of being closed over a tax dispute between Quantum and the government. Cobre Panama is one of the biggest new mines globally over the past 10 years. The rapid exit from Covid restrictions in China is bullish for the Chinese economy and thus for copper demand and it has helped to propel prices higher along with the mentioned supply issues. The Chinese property market will continue to struggle, and it normally accounts for 20% of global copper demand while China accounted for 55% of global copper demand in 2021. While China is no longer prioritizing the housing market it is full speed ahead for solar, wind, EVs, and electrification in general. So, weakening Chinese copper demand from housing will likely be replaced by the new prioritized growth sectors. Global supply growth is likely going to be muted in the decade to come while demand growth will be somewhere between a normal 3% pa. to a strong 4% pa. to a very strong 5% pa. Copper prices will be high, and demand will hit the supply barrier repeatedly with exponential spikes as the world is working hard to accelerate the energy transition. Copper prices could easily spike to USD 15-16,000/ton nearest years.

Nickel: Tight high-quality nickel market but a surplus for a low-quality nickel. Nickel production is growing aggressively in Indonesia. The country is projected to account for 60-70% of global supply in 2030. This will become a huge and extremely concentrated geopolitical risk for the world’s consumers of nickel. Indonesia has an abundance of low-grade C2 nickel. The challenge is to convert low-quality C2 nickel to high-quality C1. We are set for a surplus of C2 nickel but the market for C1 nickel will depend strongly on the conversion capacity for C2 to C1. Low price transparency will also help to send prices flying between USD 20,000/ton and USD 30,000/ton. Strong growth in nickel production in Indonesia should initially call for prices down to USD 20,000/ton. But Indonesia is a price setter. It will account for 50% of global supply in 2023. It doesn’t make sense for Indonesia to kill the nickel price. If the nickel price drops, then Indonesia could quickly regulate supply. There should be a premium to nickel due to this. As a result, we expect the nickel price to average USD 24,000/ton in 2023. C2 to C1 conversion capacity may be strained and there should also be a monopoly premium due to the size of Indonesia. Converting C2 to C1 is however extremely carbon intensive and that could be an increasing issue in the years to come.

Zinc: Super-tight global market. European LME inventories are ZERO and zinc smelters there are still closed. European zinc smelters account for 16% of global zinc smelter capacity. Most of this was closed over the past year due to extremely high energy prices. European LME zinc stockpiles are now down to a stunning zero! The global zinc market is extremely tight. Reopening of European zinc smelting seems unlikely in H1-23 with a continued super-tight market as a result both in Europe and globally.

Aluminium: Price likely to be in the range of USD 2400 – 3200/ton and line with coal prices in China. Aluminium prices have historically been tightly tied to the price of coal. But coal prices have been all over the place since the start of 2021 with huge price differences between Amsterdam, Australia, and domestic Chinese coal prices which are now largely state-controlled. China banning imports of Australian coal, the Chinese energy crisis in 2021, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are ingredients here. This sent aluminium prices flying high and low. Coal prices in China today imply a price of aluminium between USD 2400/ton and 3150/ton with the LME 3mth aluminium price nicely in between at USD 2590/ton. The global coal market should now become more orderly as China now again is accepting Australian coal. Energy costs have fallen sharply in Europe and some producers in the Netherlands have talked about possible restarts of production. China is likely to reduce its exports of primary aluminium. Energy security of supply is high on the agenda in China, and it makes no sense to emit lots of CO2 in China and indirectly export energy in the form of primary aluminium. Growth in non-China aluminium demand in the years to come will have to be covered by non-China producers which have the potential to force prices higher and away from coal as the price driver. While LME has one price for the 3mth aluminium price we’ll likely get larger and larger price differences across the world in the form of possibly extreme price premiums for example in the EU and the US.

SEB Commodities price outlook
Source: SEB Markets – Commodities. Historical data: Bloomberg 
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Solid demand growth and strained supply to push Brent above USD 100/b

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SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Brent crude had a strong end of the year as it traded at the highest level since 1 December. It is a slow start to the new year due to bank holidays and Dated Brent trades close to USD 85/b. It averaged USD 99.9/b in 2022. We expect it to average more than USD 100/b on average for the coming year amid strained supply and rebounding demand. Chinese oil demand is set to recover strongly along with re-openings while non-OECD will continue to move higher. At the moment oil looks absurdly cheap as it is cheaper than natural gas in both EU and Japan and also cheaper than coal in Australia.

Some price strength at the end of the year. The Dated Brent crude oil price index gained 2.3% on Friday with a close at USD 84.97/b. It was the highest close since 1 December. This morning it is trading slightly lower at USD 84.8/b but the market is basically void of action due to bank holidays.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Gloom and doom but IEA, OPEC and US EIA project global crude oil demand to rise between 1 m b/d and 2.2 m b/d YoY in 2023. They also expect call-on-OPEC to rise between 0.3 m b/d and 1.0 m b/d. The US EIA projects demand to increase 1 m b/d in 2023 on the back of a growth of 1.3 m b/d in non-OECD where demand in India rises by 0.2 m b/d and China by 0.6 m b/d. In China this is of course to a large degree due to re-opening after Covid-19 lock-downs. But it is still a good reminder of the low base of oil demand in non-OECD versus OECD. India last year consumed 5 m b/d which only amounts to 1.3 b/capita/year versus a world average of 4.5  b/capita/year and European demand of 10 b/capita/year. Even China is still below the world average as its demand in 2022 stood at 15.2 m b/d or 4.0 b/capita/yr. Non-OECD oil demand thus still has a long way to go in terms of oil demand and that is probably one of the things we’ll be reminded of in 2023 as Covid-19 lock-downs disappear entirely.

Solid demand growth in the face of strained supply. Important to remember is that the world has lost a huge amount of fossil supply from Russia due to the war in Ukraine. First in terms of natural gas where supply to the EU and thus to the world has declined by some 2.5 m boe/d versus pre-war levels. Secondly in terms of crude and products. The latter is of course a constant guessing game in terms of how much Russian crude and product exports has declined. The US EIA however projects that crude oil production in the Former Soviet Union will be down 2 m b/d in 2023 versus pre-Covid levels and down 1.3 m b/d YoY from 2022 to 2023. We are thus talking up to 4.5 m boe/d of lost supply from Russia/FSU. That is a huge loss. It is the reason why coal prices are still trading at USD 200 – 400/ton versus normal USD 85/ton as coal is an alternative to very expensive natural gas.

Overall for 2023 we are looking at a market where we’ll have huge losses in supply of fossil energy supply from Russia while demand for oil is set to rebound solidly (+1.0 – 2.2 m b/d) along with steady demand growth in non-OECD plus a jump in demand from China due to Covid-19 reopening. Need for oil from OPEC is set to rise by up to 1.0 m b/d YoY while the group’s spare capacity is close to exhausted.

We expect Brent crude to average more than USD 100/b in 2023. Despite all the macro economic gloom and doom due to inflation and rising interest rates we cannot help having a positive view for crude oil prices for the year to come due to the above reasons. The Dated Brent crude oil price index averaged USD 99.9/b in 2022. We think Brent crude will average more than USD 100/b in 2023. Oil is today absurdly cheap at USD 85/b. It is cheaper than both coal in Australia and natural gas both in Japan and the EU. This is something you hardly ever see. The energy market will work hard to consume more what is cheap (oil) and less of what is expensive (nat gas and coal).

Latest forecasts by IEA, OPEC and US EIA for oil demand growth and call-on-OPEC YoY for 2023. Solid demand growth and rising need for oil from OPEC. 

Latest forecasts by IEA, OPEC and US EIA for oil demand growth and call-on-OPEC YoY for 2023.
Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC, SEB graph

Oil demand projections from the main agencies and estimated call-on-OPEC. More demand and higher need for oil from OPEC

Oil demand projections
Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC, SEB table

EIA STEO projected change in oil demand for different countries and regions YoY to 2023

EIA STEO projected change in oil demand for different countries and regions YoY to 2023
Source: US EIA, SEB graph

US EIA Dec STEO forecast for FSU oil production. Solid decline projected for 2023.

US EIA Dec STEO forecast for FSU oil production. Solid decline projected for 2023.
Source: US EIA data and projection. SEB graph

US commercial crude and product stocks still below normal

US commercial crude and product stocks still below normal
Source: US EIA, SEB graph

Total US crude and product stocks including SPR. Declining, declining, declining.

Total US crude and product stocks including SPR. Declining, declining, declining.
Source: US EIA, SEB graph

US crude and product inventories both excluding and including Strategic Petroleum Reserves

US crude and product inventories both excluding and including Strategic Petroleum Reserves

US oil sales from US SPR is now coming to an end. Will make the market feel much tighter as it really is.

US oil sales from US SPR is now coming to an end. Will make the market feel much tighter as it really is.
Source: US EIA, SEB graph

Brent crude oil is absurdly cheap as it today trades below both Australian coal and natural gas in both Japan and the EU. Coal and natural gas prices should trade lower while oil should trade higher.

Source: Blbrg data, SEB graph

EU diesel prices versus natural gas prices. Could start to move towards a more natural price-balance in terms of substitution.

EU diesel prices versus natural gas prices. Could start to move towards a more natural price-balance in terms of substitution.
Source: Blbrg data, SEB graph and calculations
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