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OPEC calls for sub-$60/bl but market heads for $70/bl, while US oil production is steaming ahead

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SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - CommodityIran’s oil minister Zanganeh yesterday intervened verbally in the oil market by stating that OPEC’s members do not want Brent crude oil above $60/bl because of shale oil. The market could not care less and instead jumped 1.5% to $68.82/bl totally forgetting and disregarding that the current deficit and inventory draw down is artificially mastered by OPEC & Co. Later in the day the US EIA revised its US crude oil production 2018 forecast up by 250 k bl/d to 10.27 m bl/d. Still too low in our view. Later today we’ll have the US oil inventories for which the API yesterday predicted a huge crude oil draw of 11.2 m bl. Brent crude is trading bullishly at $69.2/bl (+0.6%) and ready to take the jump above the 2015 high of $69.63/b and potentially touch $70/bl. US crude oil production is growing and growing to the increasing concern of OPEC & Co and their verbal intervention has started. Producers should listen carefully and take good care of their downside risks.

Zanganeh’s statement should not be taken lightly by the market. The market seems to forget that a key reason for why we have had an 18% y/y (to 29 Dec 2017) bull-rally in the oil market was because OPEC & Co held back a significant amount of supply and still are. It has thus been an artificially mastered bull-market by the hands of OPEC & Co. The draw-down of global inventories has of course been real but it has been a mastered draw-down at the will of OPEC & Co and it still is.

If OPEC & Co deems the oil price too high and the US crude oil production growth too strong then they can and will do something about it. Yesterday we saw the first step of verbal intervention. Expect more of the same to come. And if the market refuses to listen then they will put more supply into the market.

The market is just happy that oil prices are rising. Global economic growth is accelerating, oil demand growth is very strong, inventories are drawing down and oil prices are naturally rising as a result. The oil market does of course have good reason to be positive about the current strong oil demand growth. It has definitely taken the oil market out of the woods so to speak with the Brent 1mth contract now trading at a premium of $9.6/bl over the three year contract. A part of that is strong global oil demand growth. A large part is however OPEC & Co.

The US EIA yesterday revised US crude oil production for 2018 up by 250 k bl/d to 10.27 m bl/d. That was the fourth revision higher in four months. We still think it is too low with more revisions higher to come and we think that everyone are probably able to see this with just a half eye open.

Last year US crude oil production from Lower 48 states (ex GoM) increased 105 k bl/d/mth on average with a total Dec-16 to Dec-17 increase of 1.26 m bl/d. The average monthly growth rate from July to December 2017 was 130 k bl/d/mth which is equal to a marginal annualized growth rate of 1.6 m bl/d.

In December 2017 the US EIA estimated that US shale oil production would likely growth by 94 k bl/d from Dec-17 to Jan-18 thus exiting 2017 at a solid 1.1 m bl/d marginal annualized pace. Last year’s shale oil activity was much about drilling with fracking and completion substantially trailing the drilling activity leading to a huge build-up in DUCs (uncompleted wells). For the year to come we’ll likely see a shift towards completions of these wells and less focus on the drilling of new oil wells. As such we will likely see that completions of wells actually increase some 20% y/y to 2018 while drilling activity falls back by 20%. All in all we are likely to see more well completions in 2018 than in 2017 and not less.

Despite of this the US EIA predicts that US L48 (ex GoM) will only growth at 0.5 m bl/d from Dec-17 to Dec-18 with a monthly pace of only 42 k bl/d/mth. However, if US L48 (ex GoM) grows like it did in 2017 (+105 k bl/d/mth) then total US crude oil production is will average 10.65 m bl/d in 2018. If L48 (ex GoM) instead continues to grow like it did in 2H17 (+130 k bl/d/mth), then total US crude oil production will average 10.8 m bl/d in 2018. All told the US EIA has more upwards revisions to do in the months to come for 2018 US crude oil production forecast.

Chart 1: US crude oil production for 2017 and 2018

US crude oil production for 2017 and 2018

Chart 2: US net hydro carbon liquids imports (EIA) and the implied trade balance impact in billion USD at an oil price of $60/bl (SEB)

US net hydro carbon liquids imports (EIA) and the implied trade balance impact in billion USD at an oil price of $60/bl (SEB)

Chart 3: US 6mths rolling marginal annualized growth in US L48 (ex GoM) in m bl/d (EIA)

Ending the year at a very strong marginal growth rate of 1.6 m b/d. Then very soft in 2018 in the face of higher prices, bullish market sentiment and increasing well completions. Why this soft outlook?

US 6mths rolling marginal annualized growth in US L48 (ex GoM) in m bl/d (EIA)

Kind regards

Bjarne Schieldrop
Chief analyst, Commodities
SEB Markets
Merchant Banking

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Brent rises on prospect of Middle East flare-up

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Brent crude prices have extended their recent rally, reaching USD 74.3 per barrel this morning, marking a gain of USD 1.25 per barrel since last evening.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Earlier in the week, signals pointed towards a potential de-escalation in Middle East tensions, with Israel reportedly considering a US-led initiative to address the conflict in Lebanon. However, as noted in yesterday’s crude oil comment, Israel’s military chief issued a strong warning, vowing a significant response should Iran attempt further aggression.

Fueling the recent surge in oil prices are reports from Axios (an American news outlet) suggesting that Iran is preparing to launch a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days. This heightens the likelihood of additional hostilities potentially erupting before the US election on November 5th.

According to the source, the anticipated attack would likely involve drones and ballistic missiles, with Iran potentially relying on allied militias in Iraq to carry it out. This approach may be a strategic effort by Tehran to avert a direct potential Israeli re-re-retaliation on Iranian soil.

While the situation in the Middle East could escalate sooner than expected, both Israel and Iran seem reluctant to ignite a full-scale regional war. Thus, any additional responses from Iran might remain restrained, similar to Israel’s limited strike last weekend, hence primarily intended as a demonstration of strength rather than an invitation to open warfare.

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Crude oil comment: Recent ’geopolitical relief’ seems premature

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Brent crude oil prices have rebounded from a low of USD 70.7 per barrel on Tuesday to USD 72.7 per barrel currently. Since Friday, the market experienced a significant nosedive, with prices collapsing by almost USD 6 per barrel. This drop was triggered by the long-awaited Israeli attack on Iran, which was milder than anticipated and did not target any oil infrastructure. The market’s reaction – a textbook example of ”buy on rumors, sell on news” – reflected this.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

In the past two days, however, prices have rebounded, driven by tightening US crude stockpiles (reported yesterday), ongoing potential for further unrest in the Middle East, and rumors that OPEC+ may delay its planned oil output hike, originally scheduled for December. Currently, Brent crude is nearing USD 73 per barrel.

Geopolitically, there are both potential risks and reliefs: An Israeli minister suggested that hostilities with Hezbollah might end by the year’s end. Nevertheless, Israel’s military chief has issued a stern warning, promising a severe response against Iran if it launches further attacks on Israel.

The market’s recent ”geopolitical relief” seems premature, with oil prices swiftly dropping 3-4 USD per barrel from last Friday’s close of approximately USD 76. The threat of further escalations with Iran persists, indicating possible future volatility without any immediate diplomatic solutions.

Much depends on Iran’s reaction. Will their responses escalate tensions, or will they seek to de-escalate, considering the limited damage inflicted? The drop in oil prices suggests that Israel’s attacks did not cause substantial damage, reassuring the market temporarily by not affecting oil installations.

However, it is uncertain if this was Israel’s final move. There could be additional minor and targeted attacks, potentially leading to repeated assaults to diminish Iran’s military capabilities. i.e., there could be more rounds of such attacks from Israel before Iran manages to do anything. Israel lives in constant fear and is tired of getting rockets from left, right, and center, and likely wants to eliminate Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iran’s ability to continue with this.

Further influencing oil prices, recent US DOE data showed a reduction in US crude inventories by 0.5 million barrels last week, slightly less than the API’s reported 0.6-million-barrel drop but significantly less than Bloomberg’s consensus forecast of a 1.4-million-barrel increase. Moreover, reductions were also observed in gasoline and distillate (diesel) inventories, exceeding market expectations and offering bullish signals at a drawdown of 2.7 and 0.97 million barrels respectively.

Looking forward, attention is on OPEC+’s plans to gradually increase production starting this December. The market is split, with rumors suggesting potential delays in OPEC+’s output increase. These delays, along with the ongoing drawdown in US inventories, could further bolster Brent prices fundamentally. However, we believe OPEC is likely to stick to a production increase in December to maintain integrity.

As of now, the OPEC+ production hike of 2.2 million barrels until December 2025 together with a weakened macroeconomic picture and fears of a long-lasting economic slowdown in China is holding a lid on global oil prices. Yet, during 2025 we believe the cartel will likely continuously evaluate the planned production increase, to see if its room for those volumes. We don’t see them going for full punishment and flooding the oil market like they did in 2014/15 and 2020. With oil prices, over time, in the low 70-dollar range we see that OPEC will reconsider the volumes that are to enter the market every single month.

In the current short-term market environment, an oil price of below USD 73 per barrel is still a buying opportunity. Yet, the oil price is not going to shoot up over USD 80 per barrel any time soon, but there is more upside than downside and it pays to be secured.

Additionally, the historical average oil price over the last 20 years is around USD 75 per barrel. Adjusted for inflation, the actual average price would be about USD 90-95 per barrel. Given the current macroeconomic and geopolitical climate, which is far from normal, securing prices on the upside and being cautious about betting on a significant price drop is prudent.

Key events next week include the US election and a legislative session in China, the world’s largest crude importer. China’s economic policies are crucial, significantly influencing global demand growth each year.

In conclusion, while US inventory data offers some bullish signs, the overarching impacts of OPEC decisions and Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions are significant factors that will drive prices higher.

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Crude oil comment: It takes guts to hold short positions

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The oil market has experienced a retreat in bullish sentiment over the last few weeks, as shifts in geopolitical tensions have influenced the market. Notably, the anticipation of Israeli military actions, which are now expected to avoid critical Iranian oil infrastructure (though not with 100% certainty), has led to a recalibration of risk assessments.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Despite these geopolitical developments, underlying market fundamentals, including inventory levels and production rates, continue to influence price movements. There appears to be a balancing act between the continuously uncertain geopolitical landscape and concerns over an oil surplus in 2025.

Recent IEA reports suggest that OPEC must cut an additional 0.9 million barrels per day next year to balance the market. This is in contrast to the cartel’s strategy of gradually regaining market share and increasing production by 180,000 barrels per month starting December 2024, culminating in an increase of 2.2 million barrels per day by December 2025.

OPEC will continue to closely monitor market conditions and perform monthly evaluations of their planned production increase, adjusting the production scale as needed to stabilize prices within the mid-70-to-80-dollar range.

We anticipate the planned OPEC December 2024 production increase of 180,000 barrels will occur, which is likely looming in the consciousness of market participants trying to balance the bulls and bears.

However, even though Brent prices have retreated from their largest peaks during the height of the Middle East unrest in early to mid-October, we now see Brent crude prices trading in positive territory since opening on Monday this week, climbing by USD 3 per barrel over the last four days and currently trading at a strong USD 76.2. This returns to the September peaks before the worst escalation in the Middle East.

As zero Israeli retaliation has materialized and with less focus on vital Iranian oil infrastructure, investor sentiment has been impacted, with hedge funds and money managers reducing their long positions in major petroleum contracts. Specifically, there was a notable decrease in positions across Brent (down 28 million barrels) and WTI (down 12 million barrels), reflecting a, so far, relaxed approach to potential supply disruptions.

Yesterday evening, we also received a slightly bearish US inventory report from last week’s data. There was a sizeable increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, which rose by 5.47 million barrels. However, keep in mind that total inventories remain about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year, totaling 426.0 million barrels.

Notably, gasoline inventories also experienced a rise, increasing by 0.88 million barrels, yet still tracking approximately 3% below the five-year average. In contrast, distillate (diesel) inventories saw a decrease of 1.14 million barrels yet remain a very bullish 9% below the five-year average. Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories experienced an upward movement, adding 5.9 million barrels over the week. This is slightly bearish indeed, but likely not enough to counter the geopolitical uncertainties ahead.

As market participants monitor the fundamentals, the potential for a hard Israeli retaliation remains an important risk, with possible impacts on Iranian oil facilities still on the table. Such geopolitical risks are juxtaposed with fundamental calculations, such as the enforcement of sanctions and adjustments in OPEC+ production strategies.

In summary, while current market conditions suggest a greater stabilization of prices and concerns for a surplus in 2025 are holding back Brent prices from spiraling, the underlying risks related to geopolitical actions should weigh heavier. The more time that passes without any Israeli retaliation, the more likely the risk premium will fade. Yet, more time also means more Israeli preparation, and the retaliation will likely be well-planned with significant consequences for Iran. In essence, it takes courage to maintain a short position in the current market. Again, the continuous potential for upside risks outweighs the downside risks.

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