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Increased OPEC power in 2021 requires demand revival

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror
SEB - Prognoser på råvaror - Commodity

Brent crude rebounded almost 1% yesterday to $64.62/bl and continues to tick a little higher this morning but still below the $65/bl mark. The signing of the US – China trade deal has given optimism for a revival in global manufacturing and thus stronger oil demand growth and this is what gives the oil price some vigour. It is very hard for OPEC to fight a war on two fronts with both rising non-OPEC supply and weakening global oil demand growth at the same time. A potential revival in global manufacturing (and oil demand growth) would thus be a great relief for OPEC and remove a lot of downside price risk for the oil price. The oil price is at its current level at the mercy of OPEC and OPEC’s current strategy of “price over volume”. If global oil demand continues at last year’s weaker than normal 1% growth rate also in 2020 and 2021 then OPEC and its allies might be forced to switch strategy to “volume over price” once again.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

The monthly oil market report from EIA on Tuesday projected a lukewarm but stable outlook for the global oil market in 2020 and 2021 with Brent crude oil prices projected to average $64.8/bl in 2020 rising to $67.5/bl in 2021. It lifted its US shale oil production projection a tad for 2020 (+0.15 m bl/d) and extended the projection to 2021 with an average YoY growth of 0.4 m bl/d in 2021. That is a far cry from latest years booming US shale oil production growth. A shale oil production growth of +0.4 m bl/d per year is still a lot of new oil though.

Key assumptions in the US EIA forecast is that global demand will grow by 1.3% p.a. for the coming two years and that OPEC will stick to its current “price over volume” strategy and continue to hold back supply. EIA’s supply/demand balance “allows” OPEC to produce 29.2 m bl/d on average through the forecast horizon. The sharp decline in the need for OPEC oil over the latest couple of years is projected to halt and stabilize at around that level and then rise marginally in 2021. I.e. it projects that OPEC will be handed back a little bit of volume and market power and thus room to manoeuvre towards the end of 2021. But not a lot.

If EIA’s forecast materializes with no major disruptions in middle east supply, then we are looking at a very stable oil market with low oil price volatility for the coming two years: US shale oil production growth is slowing down and OPEC’s challenged position over the latest years is stabilizing while global oil inventories are projected to stay elevated and plentiful.

The oil price is now getting some vigour on the back of the US – China trade deal with hopes for global manufacturing revival and stronger oil demand growth. If this materializes it will put OPEC on a more stable footing and thus increase the probability that they will be able to stick with “price over volume” throughout the forecast horizon to end of 2021.

But even with a historically normal oil demand growth of 1.3% per year the oil price will still be at the mercy of OPEC’s choice of market strategy even in 2021. The US EIA is projecting non-OPEC production to grow by 0.9 m bl/d in 2021. If global oil demand grows at 1.3% that year it will hand some volume back to OPEC. Global inventories will still be high at that point, but it could be the gradual start of some lost volume starting to return back to OPEC.

True oil market strength won’t come before non-OPEC production starts to grow more slowly than global oil demand growth. This would mean increased call-on-OPEC crude oil and would hand some of the lost volume over the past years back to OPEC again. It would place OPEC in proper control of the market again with significantly reduced risk for a switch to back to “volume over price” (which would lead to a collapse in the oil price).

The US EIA projects that non-OPEC production will grow at +0.9 m bl/d YoY in 2021. This is below the historical oil demand growth rate of about 1.3% YoY (about 1.3 m bl/d) and thus projects a possible return of volume back to OPEC. That’s the turning point OPEC is looking for. However, the increase in call-on-OPEC in 2021 cannot all that easily be realized as increased production because inventories will still be high. If OPEC wants to draw down inventories at that time, they will still need to hold back production at unchanged level. EIA’s outlook is positive for OPEC, but it is at the very end of the two-year forecast period and highly vulnerable if global oil demand growth is weak. Global manufacturing revival will thus be key.

Ch1: US EIA Supply/demand balance. Fairly stable with plenty of oil in the market. Could imply low price volatility if OPEC sticks to its “price over volume” strategy all through the period. Some deficit in 2021 hands some volume back to OPEC as non-OPEC production is projected to grow at only 0.9 m bl/d YoY that year versus normal oil demand growth of 1.3 m bl/d.

US EIA Supply/demand balance

Ch2: EIA projects OECD inventories to rise in 2020 and then a marginal decline in 2021. Plenty of oil in the market next two years unless we get a considerable supply outage in the middle east.

EIA projects OECD inventories

Ch3: EIA’s historical and projected OPEC production. Stabilizing next two years after a steep decline past two years. I.e. OPEC’s position looks set to stabilize at around 29.2 m bl/d versus a production of 29.6 m bl/d in December. What the outlook shows is that oil prices forecasted by the US EIA are totally reliant on OPEC sticking with “price over volume” for the coming two years and only produce about 29.2 m bl/d. No more

EIA’s historical and projected OPEC production

Ch4: The US EIA lifted its projection for US shale oil production by 150 k bl/d in 2020 and extended its forecast to 2021. Steady growth rate of 0.4 m bl/d in 2021. No flat-lining from 2020 to 2021

US shale oil production

Analys

Oil gains as sanctions bite harder than recession fears

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Higher last week and today as sanctions bite harder than recession fears. Brent crude gained 2% last week with a close on Friday of USD 73.63/b. It traded in a range of USD 71.8-74.17/b. It traded mostly higher through the week despite sharp, new selloffs in equities along with US consumer expectations falling to lowest level since 2013 (Consumer Conf. Board Expectations.) together with signals of new tariffs from the White House. Ahead this week looms the ”US Liberation Day” on April 2 when the White House will announce major changes in the country’s trade policy. Equity markets are down across the board this morning while Brent crude has traded higher and lower and is currently up 0.5% at USD 74.0/b at the moment.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

New US sanctions towards Iran and Venezuela and threats of new sanctions towards Russia. New sanctions on Venezuela and Iran are helping to keep the market tight. Oil production in Venezuela reached 980 kb/d in February following a steady rise from 310 kb/d in mid-2020 while it used to produce 2.3 mb/d up to 2016. Trump last week allowed Chevron to import oil from Venezuela until 27 May. But he also said that any country taking oil or gas from Venezuela after 2 April will face 25% tariffs on any goods exported into the US. Trump is also threatening to sanction Russian oil further if Putin doesn’t move towards a peace solution with Ukraine.

The OPEC+ to meet on Saturday 5 April to decide whether to lift production in May or not. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will meet on Saturday 5 April to review market conditions, compliance by the members versus their production targets and most importantly decide whether they shall increase production further in May following first production hike in April. We find it highly likely that they will continue to lift production also in May.

OPEC(+) crashed the oil price twice to curb US shale, but it kicked back quickly. OPEC(+) has twice crashed the oil price in an effort to hurt and disable booming US shale oil production. First in 2014/15/16 and then in the spring of 2020. The first later led to the creation of OPEC+ through the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in the autumn of 2016. The second was in part driven by Covid-19 as well as a quarrel between Russia and Saudi Arabia over market strategy. But the fundamental reason for that quarrel and the crash in the oil price was US shale oil producers taking more and more market share.

The experience by OPEC+ through both of these two events was that US shale oil quickly kicked back even bigger and better yielding very little for OPEC+ to cheer about.

OPEC+ has harvested an elevated oil price but is left with a large spare capacity. The group has held back large production volumes since Spring 2020. It yielded the group USD 100/b in 2022 (with some help from the war in Ukraine), USD 81/b on average in 2023/24 and USD 75/b so far this year. The group is however left with a large spare capacity with little room to place it back into the market without crashing the price. It needs non-OPEC+ in general and US shale oil especially to yield room for it to re-enter. 

A quick crash and painful blow to US shale oil is no longer the strategy. The strategy this time is clearly very different from the previous two times. It is no longer about trying to give US shale oil producers a quick, painful blow in the hope that the sector will stay down for an extended period. It is instead a lengthier process of finding the pain-point of US shale oil players (and other non-OPEC+ producers) through a gradual increase in production by OPEC+ and a gradual decline in the oil price down to the point where non-OPEC+ in general and US liquids production especially will gradually tick lower and yield room to the reentry of OPEC+ spare capacity. It does not look like a plan for a crash and a rush, but instead a tedious process where OPEC+ will gradually force its volumes back into the market.

Where is the price pain-point for US shale oil players? The Brent crude oil price dropped from USD 84/b over the year to September last year to USD 74/b on average since 1 September. The values for US WTI were USD 79/b and USD 71/b respectively. A drop of USD 9/b for both crudes. There has however been no visible reaction in the US drilling rig count following the USD 9/b fall. The US drilling rig count has stayed unchanged at around 480 rigs since mid-2024 with the latest count at 484 operating rigs. While US liquids production growth is slowing, it is still set to grow by 580 kb/d in 2025 and 445 kb/d in 2026 (US EIA).

US shale oil average cost-break-even at sub USD 50/b (BNEF). Industry says it is USD 65/b. BNEF last autumn estimated that all US shale oil production fields had a cost-break-even below USD 60/b with a volume weighted average just below USD 50/b while conventional US onshore oil had a break-even of USD 65/b. A recent US Dallas Fed report which surveyed US oil producers did however yield a response that the US oil industry on average needed USD 65/b to break even. That is more than USD 15/b higher than the volume weighted average of the BNEF estimates.

The WTI 13-to-24-month strip is at USD 64/b. Probably the part of the curve controlling activity. As such it needs to move lower to curb US shale oil activity. The WTI price is currently at USD 69.7/b. But the US shale oil industry today works on a ”12-month drilling first, then fracking after” production cycle. When it considers whether to drill more or less or not, it is typically on a deferred 12-month forward price basis. The average WTI price for months 13 to 24 is today USD 64/b. The price signal from this part of the curve is thus already down at the pain-point highlighted by the US shale oil industry. In order to yield zero growth and possibly contraction in US shale oil production, this part of the curve needs to move below that point.

The real pain-point is where we’ll see US drilling rig count starting to decline. We still don’t know whether the actual average pain-point is around USD 50/b as BNEF estimate it is or whether it is closer to USD 65/b which the US shale oil bosses say it is. The actual pain-point is where we’ll see further decline in US drilling rig count. And there has been no visible change in the rig count since mid-2024. The WTI 13-to-24-month prices need to fall further to reveal where the US shale oil industry’ actual pain-point is. And then a little bit more in order to slow production growth further and likely into some decline to make room for reactivation of OPEC+ spare capacity.

The WTI forward price curve. The average of 13 to 24 month is now USD 64.3/b.

The WTI forward price curve. The average of 13 to 24 month is now USD 64.3/b.
Source: SEB graph and highlights, Bloomberg data

The average 13-to-24-month prices on the WTI price curve going back to primo January 2022. Recently dropping below USD 65/b for some extended period.

The average 13-to-24-month prices on the WTI price curve going back to primo January 2022. Recently dropping below USD 65/b for some extended period.
Source: SEB graph and highlights, Bloomberg data
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Analys

Brent Edges Lower After Resisting Equity Slump – Sanctions, Saudi Pricing in Focus

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent has defied bearish equities for three days but is losing its stamina today. Brent gained 0.3% yesterday with a close of USD 74.03/b, the highest close since 27 February and almost at the high of the day. It traded as low as USD 73.23/b. Brent has now defied the equity selloff three days in a row by instead ticking steadily higher. A sign of current spot tightness. This morning however it is losing some of its stamina and is down 0.5% at USD 73.7/b along with negative equities and yet higher gold prices.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

The new US Iran sanctions is creating frictions in getting its oil to market and helps keeping oil market tight. Part of the current tightness is due to the new US sanctions on Iran which. Ships containing 17 mb of its oil now sits idle east of Malaysia waiting (Bloomberg) for ship-to-ship transfers with China teapot refineries the normal final destination. But the latest US sanctions has probably made these refineries much more cautious. More friction before Iranian oil is reaching its final destination if at all. Tighter market.

Lower Saudi OSPs for May is expected. A signal of a softer market ahead as OPEC+ lifts production. Saudi Aramco is expected to reduce it official selling price (OSPs) for Arab Light to Asia for May deliveries by USD 2/b. A measure to make its oil more competitive in relative to other crudes suppliers. It is also a sign of a softer market ahead. Naturally so since OPEC+ is set to lift production in April and also most likely in May. If Saudi Aramco reduces its OSPs to Asia for May across its segments of crudes, then it is a signal it is expecting softer oil market conditions. But news today is only discussing Arab Light while the main tightness int the market today is centered around medium sour crude segment. A lowering of the OSPs for the heavier and more sour grades will thus be a more forceful bearish signal.

Front-end backwardation may ease as the Brent May contract rolls off early next week. The Brent May future will roll off early next week. It will be interesting to see how that affects the front-end 1-3mth backwardation as it is shifted out into summer where a softer market is expected.

Brent is boring like crazy with 30dma annualized volatility of just 21%. Waiting for something to happen.

Brent is boring like crazy with 30dma annualized volatility of just 21%. Waiting for something to happen.
Source: SEB graph and calculations, Bloomberg data

Brent crude has defied three days of bearish equity markets and ticked higher instead. Caving in a bit this morning with yet another day of bearish equities and bullish gold.

Brent crude has defied three days of bearish equity markets and ticked higher instead. Caving in a bit this morning with yet another day of bearish equities and bullish gold.
Source: Bloomberg graph with SEB highlights.
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Analys

Crude inventories fall, but less than API signal

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Last week, U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.8 million barrels per day, an increase of 87k bl/day from the previous week. Refineries operated at 87% of their total operable capacity during the period. Gasoline production declined, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day (m bl/d), while distillate (diesel) production also edged lower to 4.5 m bl/d.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 m bl/d, up 810k barrels from the prior week. Over the past four weeks, imports have averaged 5.7 m bl/d, representing an 11% YoY decline compared to the same period last year.

Where we place most of our attention – and what continues to influence short-term price dynamics in both WTI and Brent crude – remains U.S. crude and product inventories. Total commercial petroleum inventories (excl. SPR) rose by 3.2 m bl, a relatively modest build that is unlikely to trigger major price reactions. Brent crude traded at around USD 73.9 per barrel when the data was released yesterday afternoon (16:30 CEST) and has since slid by USD 0.4/bl to USD 73.5/bl this morning, still among the highest price levels seen in March 2025.

Commercial crude oil inventories (excl. SPR) fell by 3.3 m bl, contrasting with last week’s build and offering some price support, though the draw was less severe than the API’s reported -4.6 m bl. Crude inventories now stand at 433.6 m bl, about 5% below the five-year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories declined by 1.4 m bl (API: -3.3 m bl), though they remain 2% above the five-year average. Diesel inventories fell by 0.4 m bl (API: -1.3 m bl), leaving them 7% below seasonal norms.

Over the past four weeks, total products supplied – a proxy for U.S. demand – averaged 20.2 m bl/d, up 0.5% compared to the same period last year. Gasoline supplied averaged 8.9 m bl/d, down 0.2%, while diesel supplied came in at 3.9 m bl/d, up 1.8%. Jet fuel demand also showed strength, rising 3.9% over the same four-week period.

USD DOE Inventories
US Crude Inventories exkl SPR in million barrels
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