Analys
Brent crude rallies further as buyers look to the Middle East to replace Russian barrels

Brent advances yet further on new sanctions towards Russia. Brent made a big jump on Friday to an intraday high of USD 80.75/b and a close of USD 79.76/b and a gain over the week Friday to Friday of 4.25%. This morning it has traded as high as USD 81.49/b while currently at USD 81.2/b and up 1.9% since Friday.

It will take time for Donald Trump to reverse these sanctions. The new sanctions by Biden on Friday is the primary driver but they come on top of a longer period of falling crude inventories. And time-spreads have been tightening, and flat prices have been rising since early December last year. The new sanctions come under CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act). As such they will be harder for Donald Trump to reverse as they require a 30-day Congressional review process to be changed. They will likely stay active for months. Donald Trump could also use them as leverage in the upcoming negotiations with Russia over Ukraine.
Trump could add new sanctions towards Iran and Venezuela to make room for more US crude. Donald Trump’s ambitions of 3 m b/d more US crude oil production will require lower production by someone else in the global market. Most likely Iran and/or Venezuela. So new sanctions may come in that direction as he takes charge. A higher oil price will also likely be necessary. But more importantly the US shale oil sector will likely need visibility that an additional 3 m b/d of crude is needed by the global market sustainably over the coming 3-4 years and not just for a brief period.
New sanctions are removing last loopholes and will likely stay in place for months. The new sanctions are removing the last loopholes in the existing US sanctions scheme towards Russia. All earlier waivers which have kept some of these open will be terminated on 12 March. 183 tankers and the lion’s share of Russia’s shadow fleet is targeted. Gazpromneft and Surgutneftegaz, the second and fourth biggest US oil producers are addressed as well as entities involved in producing and exporting Russian LNG. Western oil field providers won’t be allowed to operate in Russia after 27 February. Russia can still export crude and products on western tankers if the crude price at the origin is USD 60/b or lower with comparable sat levels for oil products.
Russian exports will likely decline with buyers looking to the Middle East instead. These new sanctions will for sure drive down Russian exports of crude, products and LNG. One of several effects is that it will reduce the supply of sour crude to the global market and thus tighten the sweet-sour crude spreads further as well as likely also strengthen high sulfur fuel oil prices relative to Brent crude oil prices. India, China and Turkey import most of Russia’s crude oil and will likely look to buy more oil from the Middle East instead. Chinese teapot refineries are increasingly saying no to crude cargoes on US sanctioned ships.
1-3-month time-spreads are shooting up to above USD 2/b which is consistent with Brent trading in the range of USD 80-90/b. 1-3-month time-spreads are shooting up to above USD 2/b this morning with average of Dubia, Brent crude and WTI at USD 2.3/b while the Dubai time-spread is the strongest at USD 2.58/b which is natural as China, India and Turkey are likely turning to the Middle East to replace lost Russian barrels. 1-3-month time-spreads at above USD 2/b looks nicely consistent with front-month flat prices in the range of USD 80-90/b. But Brent crude is also in solid ”overbought” territory, so pullbacks are likely to flush that out before Brent sustainably can trade in the USD 80-90/b range.
Brent crude is now well above the 200dma at USD 78.98/b. Brent crude has typically stayed above the 200dma line between one and three months at a time since early 2023.
The Dubai 1–3-month time-spread is shooting up to above USD 2/b as buyers of Russian crude oil are looking towards the Middle East instead of Russia.

Analys
Volatile but going nowhere. Brent crude circles USD 66 as market weighs surplus vs risk

Brent crude is essentially flat on the week, but after a volatile ride. Prices started Monday near USD 65.5/bl, climbed steadily to a mid-week high of USD 67.8/bl on Wednesday evening, before falling sharply – losing about USD 2/bl during Thursday’s session.

Brent is currently trading around USD 65.8/bl, right back where it began. The volatility reflects the market’s ongoing struggle to balance growing surplus risks against persistent geopolitical uncertainty and resilient refined product margins. Thursday’s slide snapped a three-day rally and came largely in response to a string of bearish signals, most notably from the IEA’s updated short-term outlook.
The IEA now projects record global oversupply in 2026, reinforcing concerns flagged earlier by the U.S. EIA, which already sees inventories building this quarter. The forecast comes just days after OPEC+ confirmed it will continue returning idle barrels to the market in October – albeit at a slower pace of +137,000 bl/d. While modest, the move underscores a steady push to reclaim market share and adds to supply-side pressure into year-end.
Thursday’s price drop also followed geopolitical incidences: Israeli airstrikes reportedly targeted Hamas leadership in Doha, while Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace – events that initially sent crude higher as traders covered short positions.
Yet, sentiment remains broadly cautious. Strong refining margins and low inventories at key pricing hubs like Europe continue to support the downside. Chinese stockpiling of discounted Russian barrels and tightness in refined product markets – especially diesel – are also lending support.
On the demand side, the IEA revised up its 2025 global demand growth forecast by 60,000 bl/d to 740,000 bl/d YoY, while leaving 2026 unchanged at 698,000 bl/d. Interestingly, the agency also signaled that its next long-term report could show global oil demand rising through 2050.
Meanwhile, OPEC offered a contrasting view in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, maintaining expectations for a supply deficit both this year and next, even as its members raise output. The group kept its demand growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 unchanged at 1.29 million bl/d and 1.38 million bl/d, respectively.
We continue to watch whether the bearish supply outlook will outweigh geopolitical risk, and if Brent can continue to find support above USD 65/bl – a level increasingly seen as a soft floor for OPEC+ policy.
Analys
Waiting for the surplus while we worry about Israel and Qatar

Brent crude makes some gains as Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar rattles markets. Brent crude spiked to a high of USD 67.38/b yesterday as Israel made a strike on Hamas in Qatar. But it wasn’t able to hold on to that level and only closed up 0.6% in the end at USD 66.39/b. This morning it is starting on the up with a gain of 0.9% at USD 67/b. Still rattled by Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar yesterday. Brent is getting some help on the margin this morning with Asian equities higher and copper gaining half a percent. But the dark cloud of surplus ahead is nonetheless hanging over the market with Brent trading two dollar lower than last Tuesday.

Geopolitical risk premiums in oil rarely lasts long unless actual supply disruption kicks in. While Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar is shocking, the geopolitical risk lifting crude oil yesterday and this morning is unlikely to last very long as such geopolitical risk premiums usually do not last long unless real disruption kicks in.
US API data yesterday indicated a US crude and product stock build last week of 3.1 mb. The US API last evening released partial US oil inventory data indicating that US crude stocks rose 1.3 mb and middle distillates rose 1.5 mb while gasoline rose 0.3 mb. In total a bit more than 3 mb increase. US crude and product stocks usually rise around 1 mb per week this time of year. So US commercial crude and product stock rose 2 mb over the past week adjusted for the seasonal norm. Official and complete data are due today at 16:30.
A 2 mb/week seasonally adj. US stock build implies a 1 – 1.4 mb/d global surplus if it is persistent. Assume that if the global oil market is running a surplus then some 20% to 30% of that surplus ends up in US commercial inventories. A 2 mb seasonally adjusted inventory build equals 286 kb/d. Divide by 0.2 to 0.3 and we get an implied global surplus of 950 kb/d to 1430 kb/d. A 2 mb/week seasonally adjusted build in US oil inventories is close to noise unless it is a persistent pattern every week.
US IEA STEO oil report: Robust surplus ahead and Brent averaging USD 51/b in 2026. The US EIA yesterday released its monthly STEO oil report. It projected a large and persistent surplus ahead. It estimates a global surplus of 2.2 m/d from September to December this year. A 2.4 mb/d surplus in Q1-26 and an average surplus for 2026 of 1.6 mb/d resulting in an average Brent crude oil price of USD 51/b next year. And that includes an assumption where OPEC crude oil production only averages 27.8 mb/d in 2026 versus 27.0 mb/d in 2024 and 28.6 mb/d in August.
Brent will feel the bear-pressure once US/OECD stocks starts visible build. In the meanwhile the oil market sits waiting for this projected surplus to materialize in US and OECD inventories. Once they visibly starts to build on a consistent basis, then Brent crude will likely quickly lose altitude. And unless some unforeseen supply disruption kicks in, it is bound to happen.
US IEA STEO September report. In total not much different than it was in January

US IEA STEO September report. US crude oil production contracting in 2026, but NGLs still growing. Close to zero net liquids growth in total.

Analys
Brent crude sticks around $66 as OPEC+ begins the ’slow return’

Brent crude touched a low of USD 65.07 per barrel on Friday evening before rebounding sharply by USD 2 to USD 67.04 by mid-day Monday. The rally came despite confirmation from OPEC+ of a measured production increase starting next month. Prices have since eased slightly, down USD 0.6 to around USD 66.50 this morning, as the market evaluates the group’s policy, evolving demand signals, and rising geopolitical tension.

On Sunday, OPEC+ approved a 137,000 barrels-per-day increase in collective output beginning in October – a cautious first step in unwinding the final tranche of 1.66 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts, originally set to remain off the market through end-2026. Further adjustments will depend on ”evolving market conditions.” While the pace is modest – especially relative to prior monthly hikes – the signal is clear: OPEC+ is methodically re-entering the market with a strategic intent to reclaim lost market share, rather than defend high prices.
This shift in tone comes as Saudi Aramco also trimmed its official selling prices for Asian buyers, further reinforcing the group’s tilt toward a volume-over-price strategy. We see this as a clear message: OPEC+ intends to expand market share through steady production increases, and a lower price point – potentially below USD 65/b – may be necessary to stimulate demand and crowd out higher-cost competitors, particularly U.S. shale, where average break-evens remain around WTI USD 50/b.
Despite the policy shift, oil prices have held firm. Brent is still hovering near USD 66.50/b, supported by low U.S. and OECD inventories, where crude and product stocks remain well below seasonal norms, keeping front-month backwardation intact. Also, the low inventory levels at key pricing hubs in Europe and continued stockpiling by Chinese refiners are also lending resilience to prices. Tightness in refined product markets, especially diesel, has further underpinned this.
Geopolitical developments are also injecting a slight risk premium. Over the weekend, Russia launched its most intense air assault on Kyiv since the war began, damaging central government infrastructure. This escalation comes as the EU weighs fresh sanctions on Russian oil trade and financial institutions. Several European leaders are expected in Washington this week to coordinate on Ukraine strategy – and the prospect of tighter restrictions on Russian crude could re-emerge as a price stabilizer.
In Asia, China’s crude oil imports rose to 49.5 million tons in August, up 0.8% YoY. The rise coincides with increased Chinese interest in Russian Urals, offered at a discount during falling Indian demand. Chinese refiners appear to be capitalizing on this arbitrage while avoiding direct exposure to U.S. trade penalties.
Going forward, our attention turns to the data calendar. The EIA’s STEO is due today (Tuesday), followed by the IEA and OPEC monthly oil market reports on Thursday. With a pending supply surplus projected during the fourth quarter and into 2026, markets will dissect these updates for any changes in demand assumptions and non-OPEC supply growth. Stay tuned!
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