Not a single drop of US blood or mid-east oil
After having spiked to almost $72/bl at the start of the year the Brent crude oil price has now fallen back to $65.3/bl. Left, right and centre analysts are stating that we have…
bjarne schieldrop
Very little middle east risk premium in Brent crude
Though the market was duly warned about upcoming Iranian retaliation attacks on US installations and armed forces the oil price still spiked up to almost $72/bl following the…
Iraqi oil production and exports at stake
The Brent crude oil price spiked 3.6% on Friday to $68.6/bl on the back of the US killing of the Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. This morning it jumps 2.3% to $70.2/bl. Though…
US shale oil production growth slowing sharply
The US EIA yesterday released its monthly drilling and productivity data. It showed that US shale oil production is slowing down even faster than they assumed just one week ago in…
The strongest Brent crude oil curve since May-2019
Baring the attack on Saudi Arabia in September which spiked the front-end of the Brent crude oil curve up to $71.95/bl for a moment and thus pushed the Brent curve into steep…
A neat OPEC+ deal: Carrot and Stick
OPEC+ struck a neat deal in our view at the end of last week. The carrot was that if all participants to the deal comply with their individual caps then Saudi Arabia will cut an…
Shale oil reaction function is changing and OPEC is happy
Brent crude had a strong week last week with four out of five closes at the highest level since late September. Recession fears eased (US 10yr moved from 1.71% to 1.94%) and…
Shale: Profits over volume. Saudi: IMO-2020 is coming
Saudi Arabia has lifted its Official Selling Price (OSP) for its Arab Super Light grade for December delivery to the highest premium versus the Dubai benchmark since early 2014.…
Oil perspectives: Q4-19 is Q4-18 in bullish reverse
Brent crude got a real jolt upwards on Friday with a gain of 2.4% and a close of $61.69/bl. The whole curve moved up in parallel. Also industrial metals gained 1.1% with a…
Bearish 2020 oil narrative starting to dissipate
The oil market headlines have been bearish, bearish and bearish for a long time now. The physical spot market has been tight (and still is) with front-end backwardation in the…