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Analys

SEB – Råvarukommentarer vecka 9 2012

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Sammanfattning: Föregående vecka

  • Analyser - Prognos på priser för råvarorBrett råvaruindex: +2,98 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI TR Index
  • Energi: +3,47 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Energy TR Index
  • Ädelmetaller: +3,62 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Precious Metals TR Index
  • Industrimetaller: +5,05 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Industrial Metals TR Index
  • Jordbruk: +0,90 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Agriculture TR Index

Kortsiktig marknadssyn:

  • Guld: Köp
  • Olja: Köp
  • Koppar: Neutral/sälj
  • Majs: Neutral/sälj
  • Vete: Sälj

Guld

Guldpriset utveckling (Comex) - 2011 till februari 2012

Guldpriset har stigit på det allmänt positiva marknadssentimentet i råvaror och handlade i veckan på de högsta nivåerna på tre månader. På torsdagen handlade guld till 1.784 dollar per troy uns.

  • Alla ratinginstitut för diskussioner kring ytterligare nedgraderingar av Greklands kreditvärdighet vilket skulle kunna liknas vid en default. Grekiska parlamentet måste senast onsdag genomföra en rad besparingsåtgärder för att få utbetalt de stödpaket som lovats. Det är fortfarande osäkert om privata lågivare kommer att acceptera den nedskrivning av utlånat kapital som man förhandlat fram. All osäkerhet kommer att ge stöd åt guldpriset.
  • Den fortsatta stimulansen från världens centralbanker ger bränsle åt guldpriset. Bank of England köpte förra veckan obligationer för 50 miljoner pund vilket ökar likviditeten i marknaden och driver på inflationsförväntningarna. I många länder är de reala räntorna, det vill säga marknadsräntan minus inflation, negativa vilket också gör guldinvesteringar attraktiva eftersom alternativkostnaden är låg.
  • Efterfrågan på guld från Asien har varit stabilt 2012 och efterfrågan från Indien har ökat sedan novembers och decembers kraftiga nedgångar.
  • Teknisk Analys: Marknaden har även denna vecka fortsatt att utveckla sig positivt och vi är nu ytterst nära ett test (och troligt brott) av huvudmotståndet, 1803. Ett lyckat brott dvs. stängning över 1803 är den bekräftelse vi söker för att kunna måtta in nya historiska toppar (som vi ser som mycket sannolika).

Prognos på guldpriset - 27 februari 2012

Olja

Prisutveckling på olja (brent) - Januari 2011 till januari 2012

  • Oljepriset har skjutit i höjden till följd av den försämrade relationen mellan Iran och Västvärlden och sedan årsskiftet har priset på Brentolja stigit med mer än 10 %. Förra veckan steg priset med 4,5 procent.
  • Oroligheterna kring Iran fortsätter. Iran hotar med att landet kommer att agera i förebyggande syfte om ”nationens intressen” hotas av omvärlden. Trots brist på konkreta hot så är varningen ännu ett exempel på den senaste tidens upptrappade konflikt mellan Väst och Iran som i grunden handlar om att det internationella atomenergiorganet IAEA i november presenterade en rapport som antydde att Iran har ett pågående kärnvapenprogram.
  • Swift (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) hotar med att stänga ute för betalningar de iranska finansinstitut som är anslutna. Skulle Europas lagstiftning godkänna denna avstängning så kommer Iran helt stängas ute från internationell handel. Den iranska regimen är redan pressad av sanktionerna som påverkar landets befolkning och de har mycket att förlora på en väpnad konflikt och en blockad av Hormuzsundet.
  • Osäkerheten är stor den närmsta tiden. Den tekniska bilden talar för att vi på kort sikt kan se ett högre oljepris.
  • Teknisk Analys: I och med brottet över aprilkontraktets tidigare topp förstärks uppåt potentialen. Nästa givna mål ska sökas vid 129.75/131.39 området, nästa Fibonacci projektionsområde. Där ovanför återfinns också toppen från 2007, 147.50. Det är dock noterbart att i €uro termer så handlas Brentoljan nu på nya rekordnivåer.

Prognos på oljepriset den 27 februari 2012

Koppar

Prisutveckling på koppar från januari 2011 till februari 2012

  • Kopparpriset steg 3,8 procent förra veckan vilket till viss del har sin förklaring i att Kina sänkte bankernas reservkrav förra helgen, ett sätt att stimulera inhemsk ekonomi. De nya kraven trädde i kraft i fredags.
  • En stabilisering av affärsklimatet för tillverkningsindustrin indikerar att Kinas ekonomi fortsätter att gå mot en mjuklandning. HSBCs PMI för tillverkningen var i februari 49,7 jämfört med 48,8 i januari. Officiellt inköpschefsindex publiceras den förste mars. Man ska dock komma ihåg att det kinesiska nyåret försämrar tillförlitligheten för den statistik som publiceras i januari och februari. Kinas uppbyggande av kopparlager har mattats av och i Japan är efterfrågan av koppar låg.
  • Indonesien som är världens tredje största producent av koppar planerar att införa ett exportförbud av all obearbetat metall fram till 2014 i syfte att stimulera inhemsk förädlingsindustri. Med ett oljepris över 120 dollar/fat dämpas möjligheten till en ekonomisk återhämtning vilket även kommer att dämpa den globala efterfrågan på koppar.
  • Kortsiktigt tror vi att risken för ett högre pris dämpas av Greklandsuppgörelsen som fortsätter att oroa marknaden. Att Kinas premiärminister förväntas signalera ett tillväxtmål under 8 procent för 2012 på partikongressen den 5:e mars verkar också dämpande på kopparpriset.
  • Teknisk Analys: Efter det första ”benet” ned från 233 dagars bandet befinner vi nu oss i vad vi anser vara en korrektion på nedgången. Följaktligen söker vi ett nytt säljläge under kommande vecka(or) och allra helst finner vi det under 8660.

Prognos på kopparpriset den 27 februari 2012

Majs

  • The International Grains Council (IGC) gick i torsdags ut med sin senaste prognos avseende det globala utbudet av spannmål, där man justerade upp utbudsestimatet för majs med 0,3 procent jämfört med den senaste rapporten.
  • Under de senaste månaderna har det spekulerats mycket kring den påverkan Kinas ökade importbehov av majs kan få på majspriset, detta särskilt då de två senaste årens la Niña-relaterade produktionsproblem fått de globala lagernivåerna att falla ned till rekordlåga nivåer. Så sent som i fredags kom det ut nya indikationer om ökade kinesiska importer från USA, vilket, tillsammans med de nya handelsavtalen mellan Kina och Argentina, stärker denna tes ytterligare. Nyhetsvärdet kan i detta fall ge visst stöd åt majspriset denna vecka.
  • I torsdags och fredags höll USDA sitt årliga Agricultural Outlook Forum i Arlington (Virginia), vilket brukar innebära startskottet för de mer detaljerade prognoserna avseende det amerikanska spannmålsutbudet för det kommande skördeåret. Enligt vår bedömning var det inga större utropstecken, den kommande amerikanska skörden av majs ser fortfarande god ut. Därmed bör marknadens ögon under de kommande veckorna riktas in mot Brasilien och Ukraina igen.
  • Det är i nuläget svårt att fundamentalt ge några starka argument för att majspriset kortsiktigt ska lämna nuvarande prisnivåer.
  • Teknisk Analys: Marknaden har fortsatt att handla mellan 55 & 233 dagars medelvärdesband och befinner sig följaktligen fortsatt inklämd i det neutrala området.

Prognos på majspriset den 27 februari 2012

Vete

Prisutveckling på vete från januari 2011 till februari 2012

  • Under förra veckan kunde vi verkligen se hur proppen gick ur marknaden, detta från en för oss omotiverat hög prisnivå. Totalt sett gick priset i Paris ned med 4,5 procent, men vi är fortfarande av åsikten att det bör fortsätta nedåt mot en nivå under 200 EUR/ton inom kort.
  • I sin prognos avseende vetemarknaden justerade IGC i torsdags upp sitt produktionsestimat för innevarande skördeår. De globala vetelagren är redan på historiskt sett rekordhög nivå, där denna typ av bekräftelse ger ytterligare tryck nedåt på vetepriset.
  • Diskussionen kring Ukrainas eventuella restriktioner av spannmål fortsätter. Stor osäkerhet råder fortsatt avseende bortfallet av vete i landet efter den senaste tidens köldknäpp runt Svarta havet. Även om landet endast producerar 3-4 procent av vetet i världen anses landet vara en viktig exportör.
  • Efter att ha stigit något den senaste månaden har nu andelen spekulativa köpare av vete i Chicago fallit ned mot tidigare bottennivåer igen. Vi väljer att hålla med spekulanterna i terminsmarknaden och ser negativt på priset kommande veckor.
  • Teknisk Analys: Brottet under trendlinjen, återtestet och det förnyade fallet stärker oss i vår vy att lägre nivåer ska sökas. Ett viktigt test av 55/233dagars medelvärdesbanden ser ut att kunna komma under nästa vecka. Hur handeln i detta område utvecklar sig kommer att ge en hel del viktig information om den lite större utvecklingen så håll ögonen öppna efter signaler.

Prognos på vetepriset den 27 februari 2012

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Disclaimer

The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”).

Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.

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About SEB

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Analys

Metals rallied ahead of spot fundamentals, but better times are indeed ahead

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Industrial metals rallied close to 25% from 1 Dec-2023 to 20 May-2024 as marginal optimism replaced recession fears. But prices have pulled back a bit since then as economic growth optimism has run ahead of spot fundamentals. Industrial metals prices rallied close to 25% from 1 Dec-2023 to 20 May-2024. A solid gain on the back of reviving optimism as global manufacturing PMI’s rose from depressed levels in December to now just above the 50-line. Speculative money rolled into the space to catch a ride on economic revival as well as wanting to hold commodities as a sort of protection against inflation. But the actual state of the global economy isn’t all that strong yet.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Rather it is quite weak in absolute terms with the global manufacturing PMI barely just above the 50-line and barely in expansionary territory. Thus, prompt weaknesses can be seen in many places in both metals and energy with rising inventories and weakening curve structures and premiums. The price rally has thus been on a collision course with spot fundamentals. And that eventually helped to bring metals prices back down a bit since 20 May.

That said we do hold the view that there are better times ahead. Consumer prices are cooling, Covid-19 induced inflation is fading and central banks across the world are set to lower policy rates over the coming year. The ECB just cut its policy rate by 0.25% which is the first cut in 5 years. We think other central banks will follow suite as inflation cools around the world. And that is the real start of economic revival. The global economy will then shift from current patchy growth here and there to a more broad-based upturn. And as such the investors who have driven the bull-train so far will likely be right in the end. It is just a bit early.

Brent Crude. Steady as we go: OPEC+ keeps on holding large volumes off market to support prices. The group has flagged that it wants to return volumes to market but is in no hurry to do so. Fading shale oil growth is shifting market power back to OPEC+.

Nat gas TTF. Crisis behind us but still some tightness. The crisis is now clearly behind us, but the market is still on the tight side with some need for demand destruction as the global LNG market has not yet fully managed to compensate lost Russian gas.

EUA carbon. The trough is behind us. Back to EUR 100/ton in 2025. The EUA price crashed to EUR 49.54/ton intraday on 23 Feb depressed by a crash in nat gas prices, low emissions and front-loading of supply. Prepare for EUR 100/ton or more in 2025.

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Aluminum 3mth. Too far, too fast. Back to USD 2400/ton before gains in 2025. Aluminum has rallied more than USD 400/ton since February to now USD 2613/ton without support from a comparable gain in coal prices or drawdown in inventories. Helped higher by speculative appetite and increased friction in global trade flows due to new sanctions on Russian metals.

Copper 3mth. Prompt market not that tight. Back above USD 10,000/ton in 2025. The LME 3mth rallied to USD 10,889/ton (LME 3mth) and US Comex copper rallied to USD 11,285/ton. Rally was driven by tightness in the US (IRA++) and speculators frontrunning economic acceleration and global copper deficit. But signs of physical weaknesses many places to be seen in premiums and curves. Flat price now coming back off.  But back up above USD 10,000/ton in 2025 and later as market tightens.

Nickel 3mth. Dragged along with the copper rally but Indonesia still looking to grab more market share. The LME 3mth nickel price rallied to USD 21,615/ton in May, dragged along with the industrial metals rally. But decline has been sharp since then. We are not very bullish on Nickel going forward as Indonesia seems to focus on growing market share rather than profits.

Zinc: Joined the rally. Now back down to USD 2800/ton which could be fair price nearest years. The zinc price spent a long time around USD 2500/ton before rallying to USD 3139/ton. But USD 2800/ton will likely be a fair price for zinc the nearest years.

SEB commodities price outlook
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Analys

ECB rate cut and assurances from OPEC+ lifts Brent back to 80

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Back up to the 80-line. Brent crude rose to a close of  USD 79.87/b yesterday and recovered another 1.9% of its recent losses. This morning Brent crude is trading just above the 80-line (+0.2%) aligning well with some smaller gains in industrial metals as well as gains in Asian equities. Market focusing on US payrolls later today. Too hot or too cold?

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Reassurances from OPEC+ helps to drive Brent back up. Brent dropped to USD 76.76/b (intraday) on Tuesday following the OPEC+ meeting last Sunday. That was the lowest since early February this year. Shocked by the price drop, OPEC+ was propelled to issue statements with assurances that they didn’t really mean what they said or say what they meant and that they in no way is shifting away from ”price over volume” with a shift to an aggressive claw-back of market shares. At least not yet. And yes, the group did state explicitly last Sunday that they would only put the 2 m b/d of voluntary cuts back into the market from Q4-24 to Q3-25 if market circumstances would allow it. And no one really believes that there will be room for the return of that volume to the market in that period. So basically it won’t happen. But the issued statements last Sunday still rings very clear to the market: The current production cuts by OPEC+ are not forever. So to all non-OPEC+ producers: Do prepare, do make room, for the return of these volumes. in the years to come. The frustration among the member states of the cartel must be rising steadily as quarter after quarter is passing by and yet again there is no room to return their cuts back into the market. 

ECB rate cuts gives hopes for economic acceleration and oil demand growth. ECB yesterday reduced its policy rate for the first time since 2016 as inflation is coming under control. The hope is that this is the beginning of further rate cuts across many central banks around the world as inflation is coming under control not just in Europe but also across most of the world. And of course further that this will be the start of a more broad based economic acceleration and thus stronger oil demand growth. That is for sure what OPEC+ is hoping for. That stronger oil demand growth will make room for a return of the group’s cuts.

US crude oil production rises to 13.18 m b/d in March, a mere 77 k b/d MoM gain. The US EIA projected in its May report that US crude oil production will continue to rise to 13.9 m b/d by Dec-2025. A slower, but still steady going growth in supply. The latest gains could however indicate that US crude production may flatten totally rather than rise further as current oil prices have done nothing to stimulate further drilling activity in US oil production since November last year. The official monthly US crude oil production for March came in at 13.18 m b/d. It is a recovery following a hard winter with difficult drilling conditions. But it is still below the Dec production level. Nothing would be sweeter news for OPEC+ than seeing US crude production fully flatten here onward. And it would indeed be the correct choice of action by US shale oil producers given that non-OPEC+ producers now has gotten notice: Cuts are not forever.

US crude oil production rises to 13.18 m b/d in March and a mere gain of 77 k b/d MoM and still below Dec-2025.

US crude oil production rises to 13.18 m b/d in March and a mere gain of 77 k b/d MoM and still below Dec-2025.
Source: SEB graph, Blbrg data feed, US EIA data

US EIA is projecting that US crude production will continue to rise and rise though more gradually

US EIA is projecting that US crude production will continue to rise and rise though more gradually
Source: SEB graph, Blbrg data feed, US EIA data
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Analys

Crude oil comment: Fundamentals are key – more volatility ahead

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

This week, Brent Crude prices have declined by USD 2.5 per barrel (3%) since the market opened on Monday. The key driver behind this movement was the OPEC+ meeting last Sunday. Initially, prices fell sharply, with Brent touching USD 76.76 per barrel on Tuesday (June 4th); however, there has been a slight recovery since, with current trading around USD 78.5/bl.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Despite ongoing macroeconomic concerns, price movements have been relatively subdued in the first half of 2024, largely driven by fundamental factors—specifically, concerns around supply and demand, where US DOE data and OPEC+ strategy, remain central to price dynamics.

The US inventory report on Wednesday contributed to bearish market sentiment due to an overall increase in commercial inventories. Following the report, prices dipped approximately USD 1/bl before returning to earlier levels in the week.

According to the US DOE, there was a build in US crude inventories of 1.2 million barrels last week, totaling 455.9 million barrels—around 4% below the five-year average for this period, yet significantly less than the 4.1 million barrels anticipated by the API on Tuesday (see page 11 attached). Gasoline inventories also rose by 2.1 million barrels, slightly less than API’s 4 million barrel expectation, and remain about 1% below the five-year average. Meanwhile, distillate (diesel) inventories saw a substantial increase of 3.2 million barrels, maintaining a position 7% under the five-year average but exceeding the expected 2 million barrels projected by API.

Globally, bearish to sideways price movements during May can be attributed to a healthy build in global crude inventories coupled with stagnant demand. US DOE data exemplifies this with both an increase in commercial crude inventories and rising crude oil imports, which averaged 7.1 million barrels per day last week—a 300k barrel increase from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million barrels per day, reflecting a 3.5% increase compared to the same period last year.

Product demand shows signs of weakening. Gasoline products supplied to the US market averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, a 1% decrease from the previous year, while distillate supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day, down a significant 3.4% from last year. In contrast, jet fuel supply has increased by 13% compared to the same four-week period last year.

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OPEC+ Strategic Shifts

OPEC+ has markedly shifted its strategy from focusing solely on price stability to a dual emphasis on price and volume (more in yesterday’s crude oil comment). Since the COVID-19-induced demand collapse in May 2020, OPEC+ has adeptly managed supply levels to stabilize the market. This dynamic is evolving; OPEC+ no longer adjusts supplies solely based on global demand shifts or non-OPEC+ production changes.

Echoing a strategic move similar to Saudi Arabia’s in 2014, OPEC+ has signaled a nuanced approach. The alliance has planned no production changes for Q3-24 to align supply with expected seasonal demand increases, aiming to maintain market balance. Beyond that, there’s a plan to gradually reintroduce 2 million barrels per day from Q4-24 to Q3-25, with an initial increase of 750,000 barrels per day by January 2025. However, this plan is flexible and subject to adjustment depending on market conditions.

The IEA’s May report forecasts a decrease in OPEC’s call by 0.5 million barrels per day by 2025—a potential loss in market share, which OPEC+ finds unacceptable. The group has openly rejected further cuts, signaling an end to its willingness to lose market share to maintain price stability.

This stance serves as a clear warning to non-OPEC+ producers, particularly US shale operators, that the market shares gained since 2020 are not theirs to keep indefinitely. OPEC+ is determined to reclaim its volumes, potentially influencing future production decisions across the global oil industry. Producers now face the strategic decision to potentially scale back on production increases for 2025.

The confluence of a continuing build in US inventories and OPEC+’s strategic shifts has led to market reactions. In the wake of OPEC+ rhetoric, evaluating the fundamentals is now more important than ever, and increased volatility is expected.

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Even though OPEC+ has signaled its intention to reclaim market share, it plans to maintain current production levels for the next three months while continuously evaluating the situation. Today, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi Energy Minister, spoke at the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg. He highlighted that Sunday’s agreement, like many before it, retains the option to ’pause or reverse’ production changes if deemed necessary. This statement subtly emphasizes that maintaining oil price stability and market balance remains a primary focus for OPEC+. Such rhetoric introduces a new dimension of uncertainty that market participants will need to consider going forward.

If the price continues to fall, OPEC+ remains intent on reclaiming ’their volumes,’ betting on a decrease in non-OPEC supply later this year and into 2025. A potentially weaker oil price, within the USD 70-80/bl range for the remainder of 2024, could help alleviate current inflationary pressures. This in turn may lead to earlier central bank rate cuts and a quicker economic recovery in 2025, thereby reviving global oil demand to the benefit of OPEC+.

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