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SEB – Råvarukommentarer vecka 19 2012

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Sammanfattning: Föregående vecka

  • Analyser - Prognos på priser för råvarorBrett råvaruindex: -2,79 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI TR Index
  • Energi: -4,31 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Energy TR Index
  • Ädelmetaller: -1,59%
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Precious Metals TR Index
  • Industrimetaller: -2,42 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Industrial Metals TR Index
  • Jordbruk: -2,01 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Agriculture TR Index

Kortsiktig marknadsvy:

  • Guld: Neutral/köp
  • Olja: Sälj
  • Koppar: Sälj
  • Majs: Sälj
  • Vete: Sälj

Guld

Guldkursen (Comex) och spekulativa positioner

  • Guldet föll 1,14 procent förra veckan och vi såg att guldtillgångar i börshandlade ETP: er sjönk till 2 381 ton, den lägsta nivån sedan 1 februari i år. Guldet handlade i ett intervall och lyckas inte bryta på uppsidan. Bristen på av politiker bekräftade penningpolitiska lättnader och en starkare dollar höll tillbaka guldet.
  • Den amerikanska jobbrapporten NFP som publiceras i fredags kom ut sämre än förväntat, 115 000 nya jobb mot förväntade 160 000 nya jobb skapades. NFP siffran ökade marknadens förhoppningar om nya kvantitativa lättnader vilket gav stöd åt guldet som steg en halv procent samtidigt dollarn försvagades marginellt.
  • Råvaror faller brett idag på morgonen efter valseger för Hollande i Frankrike. Segern skapar politisk oro eftersom överenskommelser med Tyskland nu kan komma att rivas upp. Helgens val i Grekland gav en klar seger för små partier som visat missnöje med de överenskommelser landets största partier gjort med EU och IMF. Osäkerheten i Europa ökar och euron tappade kraftigt mot dollarn efter valresultaten.
  • I Europa är osäkerheten kring Spanien stor där ekonomin åter är i recession, dvs. ekonomin krymper för andra kvartalet i rad. En fråga som oroar marknaden är om Spanien kommet att behöva resurser från EU:s nödlånefaciliteter. Negativa nyheter kan snabbt skapa turbulens i marknaden. Den oro man ser i Europa har emellertid inte ökat intresset för guld som säker hamn. Guldet har snarare korrelerat positivt med övriga risktillgångar.
  • Teknisk Analys: Fortsatt endast marginella rörelser noterade inom ett redan ganska väl utstakat intervall där under $1620 verkar ”för lågt” och over $1690 ”för högt”. Priset håller sig under ett rullande 55-dagars genomsinittsband. Bandet är svagt i fallande och är på marginalen ett uttryck för visst nedåttryck, men marknaden svarar samtidigt bra på nedställ och i en större positiv bild ser eventuell svaghet ut at vara temporär. Över $1670 & $1695 skulle påvisa efterfrågan och ses som positivt.

Prognos på guldkursen är neutral till köp

Olja

Oljeprisets utveckling 4 januari 2011 till 4 maj 2012

  • Oljepriset föll 5,3 procent förra veckan. Statistik från USA:s energidepartement, DOE, visade att de amerikanska lagren av råolja steg med 2,8 miljoner fat under förra veckan till den högsta nivån på 21 år.
  • Den viktiga amerikanska jobbrapporten NFP som publiceras på fredagen kom ut sämre än förväntat, 115 000 nya jobb mot förväntade 160 000 nya jobb skapades.
  • Arbetslösheten minskade med 0,1 % och föll till 8,1 procent (samtidigt bör noteras att antalet registrerade arbetslösa minskade, de försvinner alltså ur systemet vilket i sig förbättrar siffran).
  • Den inofficiell amerikanska jobbstatistiken, ADP-rapporten, som mäter utvecklingen i den privata sysselsättningen, visade på en ökning om 119 000 personer vilket också var långt under väntade 170 000.)
  • Opec:s generalsekreterare är “inte nöjd” över nuvarande oljepris och kartellen arbetar för att få ned priserna. Enligt Opec som idag producerar 3,2 miljoner fat per dag över de uppsatta kvoterna, är ett oljepris kring 100 dollar att föredra. Enligt Opec finns det gott om olja och utbudssituationen är inte ett problem trots Irankrisen. Exporten från Iran har minskat mindre än förväntat. Detta, tillsammans med Europas kris, gör att vi kortsiktigt inte tror på en uppgång i oljepriset.
  • Teknisk Analys: Undersidan av 55-dagars bandet (som efter kraftigt nedställ denna vecka är satt i fallande) agerar som dynamisk motstånd (borde inte återtestas under de kommande veckorna). Rörelsen ner är som sagt hård och ska väntas fortsätta för att testa 233-dagars bandet som just nu börjar vid $113.

Prognos på oljepriset - Certifikat Short Olja A S

Koppar

Kopparprisets utveckling 4 januari 2011 - 4 maj 2012

  • Kopparlagren på LME (London Metal Exchange) föll förra veckan till den lägsta nivån sedan november 2008.
  • HSBC inköpschefsindex för tillverkningsindustrin kom in under 50-nivån vilket är den nivå som indikerar att ekonomin är i kontraktion. Fastighetspriser i Kina faller och föll i april till 14-månaders lägsta. Husbyggande står för ungefär 40 procent av inhemsk efterfrågan på koppar enligt Copper Development Association.
  • ECB lämnade som förväntat räntan oförändrad på en procent. Störst fokus var emellertid på ECB chefen Draghis efterföljande presskonferens i samband med räntebeskedet där Draghi uttryckte kritik mot euro-ländernas politiker vilka inte har förbättrat tillväxtpotentialen med förbättrade strukturreformer. Framtiden ser osäker ut enligt Draghi som inte heller utlovade ytterligare stimulanser vilket marknaden reagerade negativt på och råvaror fortsatte att falla brett på fredagen i samklang med aktiemarknaden.
  • Stämningsläget hos europeiska inköpschefer bekräftade det kärva läge som europeisk tillväxt befinner sig i. Arbetsmarknadsstatistiken är dyster och den europeiska arbetslösheten har stigit till 15-årshögsta. Obligationsräntorna har rört sig nedåt eller ligger kvar på mycket låga nivåer t.o.m. i ekonomier som bedöms som säkra att låna ut till.
  • Teknisk Analys: Rörelsen högre gick något längre än vad som tidigare var trott, men uppsidan av 55-, & 233-dagars ”banden” höll köpare över $8500 nivån borta. Den nuvarande överlappningen under 20 april toppen vid $8218 har ökat sannolikheten att apr/maj rörelsen verkligen är den korrektion vi antagit att den är. Under $$7977 skulle helt bekräfta detta och starkt argumentera för fortsatt rörelse under apr botten vid 7885.

Prognos på kopparpriset - Använd certifikat Short KOPPA A S

Majs

Majsprisets utveckling 4 januari - 2011 4 maj 2012

  • Denna vecka byter vi referenskontrakt för majs. Från att den senaste tiden ha använt majkontraktet byter vi nu istället till julikontraktet.
  • Förra veckan kunde vi se en nedgång med knappt en procent, detta till följd av framförallt den fortsatt goda utvecklingen för den amerikanska majsskörden, där mer än 50 procent av planteringen nu är avslutad.
  • Prognoserna för den sydamerikanska majsskörden ser fortsatt blandade ut, där Brasilien som kontinentens största producent justerat upp sin prognos samtidigt som Argentina fått dra ned sina estimat något.
  • Den senaste tiden har det spekulerats mycket kring Kinas ökade import av majs och huruvida denna kommer att fortlöpa under 2012. Enligt en mängd analytiker verkar det i nuläget som att importen kommer att öka något, vilket borde utgöra ett starkt fundamentalt motstånd för majspriset.
  • Fundamentalt förhåller vi oss fortsatt negativa till majspriset, där fredagens amerikanska arbetsmarknadsdata, tillsammans med den generella riskaversionen i kapitalmarknaden, bör agera sänke även på spannmålspriserna denna vecka.
  • Teknisk Analys: Rörelsen upp från apr botten har kommit av sig och börjat se ut som en korrektiv ”3-vågs” rörelse där A-, & C-vågorna nu är symmetriska i storlek och hastighet. Tillbaka under 599 skulle till fullo bekräfta detta och den lätt negativa lutningen på 55-dagars bandet och då argumentera för rörelse under 592, möjligtvis ner mot 580-området.

Prognos på majspriset - Köp certifikat Short MAJS A S

Vete

Veteprisets utveckling 15 mars 2011 - 4 maj 2012

  • Efter att den senaste månaden ha använt majkontraktet som referenskontrakt för europeiskt vete byter vi nu över till novemberkontraktet.
  • Förra veckan föll priset på vete med nästan 3,5 procent, vilket till stor del kan förklaras av den amerikanska skördeutvecklingen, där 64 procent av vintervetet är av hög eller mycket hög kvalitet. Den gängse normen på marknaden är att en siffra över 60 procent i regel leder till hög avkastning på skörden.
  • I Europa är det fortsatt blandat, där exempelvis skörden i Ukraina och Spanien i år ser ut att bli väsentligen sämre jämfört med föregående skördeår. I länder som Ryssland och Frankrike ser det däremot förhållandevis ljust ut, där det blöta vädret under april och maj skapat förutsättningar för en god avkastning.
  • Som en konsekvens av rådande riskaversion samt de goda utsikterna för den amerikanska skörden är vi denna vecka säljare av vete. Det krävs en svag WASDE-rapport på torsdag för att vi ska revidera denna kortsiktiga vy.
  • Teknisk Analys: Fallande toppar indikerar ett något höjt säljtryck. Skulle stödet just under €200-nivån (& nedsidan på 55-dagars bandet) sluta att attrahera köpare så väntas snabb rörelse tillbaka ner mot stödet vid 233-dagars bandet (som är i fallande) och som börjar vid €193. Över €206 skulle åter minska risken för brott lägre och i stället tas som efterfrågan vid nivåer som tidigare.

Prognos på vetepriset - Köp certifikat Short VETE A S

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Analys

Very relaxed at USD 75/b. Risk barometer will likely fluctuate to higher levels with Brent into the 80ies or higher coming 2-3 weeks

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent rallied 12% last week. But closed the week below USD 75/b and it is still there. Very relaxed. Brent crude rallied 12% to USD 78.5/b in the early hours of Friday as Israel attacked Iran. The highest level since 27 January this year. The level didn’t hold and Brent closed the day at USD 74.23/b which was up 5.7% on the day and 11.7% on the week. On Friday it was still very unclear how extensive and lasting this war between Iran and Israel would be. Energy assets in Iran had still not been touched and Iran had not targeted other Middle East countries’ energy assets or US military bases in the region. As such, the Brent crude closed the week comfortably at around USD 75/b. Which one cannot argue is very much of a stressed price level. 

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Israel is targeting Iran’s domestic energy infrastructure. Not its energy export facilities. For now. Over the weekend Israel has widened its targets to include fuel depots in Tehran, refineries supplying Iran domestically and also a processing plant at Iran’s South Pars gas field – the world’s largest. So far it appears that Israel has refrained from hurting Iranian oil and gas export facilities. Maybe adhering to Trump’s whish of low oil prices. Trump has been begging for a lower oil price. Would be very frustrating for him if Israel started to blow up Iran’s export facilities. Focus instead looks to be on Iran’s domestic energy supply and infrastructure. To weaken and disable the operations of Iran as a country while leaving Iran’s energy export facilities intact for now at least. That is probably why Brent crude this morning is only trading at USD 74.9/b with little change from Friday. An incredible relaxed price level given what is going on in the Middle East. 

Israel seems to try to do to Iran what Israel recently did to Lebanon. Israel now seems to have close to total control of the Iranian air space. So called ”Air Supremacy” something which is rarely achieved according to Phillips P. O’Brian (see comment on this below with link). This is giving Israel close to total freedom in the airspace over Iran. Israel now seems to try to do to Iran what Israel recently did to Lebanon. Take out military and political commanders. Take out the air defenses. Then grind the rest of its defensive capacities to the ground over some time.

Continuous pressure. No rest. No letting up for several weeks seems likely. The current situation is a very rare opportunity for Israel to attack Iran with full force. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian strongholds in Syria, are all severely weakened or disabled. And now also Air Supremacy of the airspace over Iran. It is natural to assume that Israel will not let this opportunity pass. As such it will likely continue with full force over several weeks to come, at least, with Israel grinding down the rest of Iran’s defensive capabilities and domestic energy supply facilities as far as possible. Continuous pressure. No rest. No letting up.

What to do with Fordow? Will Iran jump to weapons grade uranium? The big question is of course Iran’s nuclear facilities. Natanz with 16,000 enrichment centrifuges was destroyed by Israel on Friday. It was only maximum 20 meters below ground. It was where Iran had mass enrichment to low enrichment levels. Fordow is a completely different thing. It is 500 meters deep under a mountain. It is where enrichment towards weapons grade Uranium takes place. Iran today has 408 kg of highly enriched uranium (IAEA) which can be enriched to weapons grade. It is assumed that Iran will only need 2-3 days to make 25 kg of weapons grade uranium and three weeks to make enough for 9 nuclear warheads. How Israel decides to deal with Fordow is the big question. Ground forces? Help from the US?

Also, if Iran is pushed to the end of the line, then it might decide to enrich to weapons grade which again will lead to a cascade of consequences.

Brent is extremely relaxed at USD 75/b. But at times over coming 2-3 weeks the risk barometer will likely move higher with Brent moving into the 80ies or higher. The oil price today is extremely relaxed with the whole thing. Lots of OPEC+ spare capacity allows loss of Iranian oil exports. Israeli focus on Iran’s domestic energy systems rather than on its exports facilities is also soothing the market. But at times over the coming two, three weeks the risk barometer will likely move significantly higher as it might seem like the situation in the Middle East may move out of control. So Brent into the 80ies or higher seems highly likely in the weeks to come. At times at least. And if it all falls apart, the oil price will of course move well above 100.

Phillips P. OBrien on ”Air Supremacy” (embedded link): Air power historian Philip Meilinger: ”Air Superiority is defined as being able to conduct air operations “without prohibitive interference by the opposing force.” Air Supremacy goes further, wherein the opposing air force is incapable of effective interference.”

Thus, air supremacy is an entirely different beast from air superiority. It occurs when one power basically controls the skies over an enemy, and can operate practically anywhere/time that it wants without much fear of enemy interference in its operations.

The US had Air Supremacy over Germany in the second World War, but only at the very end when it was close to over. It only had Air Superiority in the Vietnam war, but not Supremacy. During Desert Storm in 1990-1991 however it did have Supremacy with devastating consequences for the enemy. (last paragraph is a condensed summary).

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Analys

Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b to make cheating unprofitable for Kazakhstan

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Brent jumping 2.4% as OPEC+ lifts quota by ”only” 411 kb/d in July. Brent crude is jumping 2.4% this morning to USD 64.3/b following the decision by OPEC+ this weekend to lift the production cap of ”Voluntary 8” (V8) by 411 kb/d in July and not more as was feared going into the weekend. The motivation for the triple hikes of 411 kb/d in May and June and now also in July has been a bit unclear: 1) Cheating by Kazakhstan and Iraq, 2) Muhammed bin Salman listening to Donald Trump for more oil and a lower oil price in exchange for weapons deals and political alignments in the Middle East and lastly 3) Higher supply to meet higher demand for oil this summer. The argument that they are taking back market share was already decided in the original plan of unwinding the 2.2 mb/d of V8 voluntary cuts by the end of 2026. The surprise has been the unexpected speed with monthly increases of 3×137 kb/d/mth rather than just 137 kb/d monthly steps.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

No surplus yet. Time-spreads tightened last week. US inventories fell the week before last. In support of point 3) above it is worth noting that the Brent crude oil front-end backwardation strengthened last week (sign of tightness) even when the market was fearing for a production hike of more than 411 kb/d for July. US crude, diesel and gasoline stocks fell the week before last with overall commercial stocks falling 0.7 mb versus a normal rise this time of year of 3-6 mb per week. So surplus is not here yet. And more oil from OPEC+ is welcomed by consumers.

Saudi Arabia calling the shots with Russia objecting. This weekend however we got to know a little bit more. Saudi Arabia was predominantly calling the shots and decided the outcome. Russia together with Oman and Algeria opposed the hike in July and instead argued for zero increase. What this alures to in our view is that it is probably the cheating by Kazakhstan and Iraq which is at the heart of the unexpectedly fast monthly increases. Saudi Arabia cannot allow it to be profitable for the individual members to cheat. And especially so when Kazakhstan explicitly and blatantly rejects its quota obligation stating that they have no plans of cutting production from 1.77 mb/d to 1.47 mb/d. And when not even Russia is able to whip Kazakhstan into line, then the whole V8 project is kind of over.

Is it simply a decision by Saudi Arabia to unwind faster altogether? What is still puzzling though is that despite the three monthly hikes of 411 kb/d, the revival of the 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts is still kind of orderly. Saudi Arabia could have just abandoned the whole V8 project from one month to the next. But we have seen no explicit communication that the plan of reviving the cuts by the end of 2026 has been abandoned. It may be that it is simply a general change of mind by Saudi Arabia where the new view is that production cuts altogether needs to be unwinded sooner rather than later. For Saudi Arabia it means getting its production back up to 10 mb/d. That implies first unwinding the 2.2 mb/d and then the next 1.6 mb/d.

Brent would likely crash with a fast unwind of 2.2 + 1.6 mb/d by year end. If Saudi Arabia has decided on a fast unwind it would meant that the group would lift the quotas by 411 kb/d both in August and in September. It would then basically be done with the 2.2 mb/d revival. Thereafter directly embark on reviving the remaining 1.6 mb/d. That would imply a very sad end of the year for the oil price. It would then probably crash in Q4-25. But it is far from clear that this is where we are heading.

Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b or lower to make it unprofitable for Kazakhstan to cheat. To make it unprofitable for Kazakhstan to cheat. Kazakhstan is currently producing 1.77 mb/d versus its quota which before the hikes stood at 1.47 kb/d. If they had cut back to the quota level they might have gotten USD 70/b or USD 103/day. Instead they choose to keep production at 1.77 mb/d. For Saudi Arabia to make it a loss-making business for Kazakhstan to cheat the oil price needs to fall below USD 58/b ( 103/1.77).

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Analys

All eyes on OPEC V8 and their July quota decision on Saturday

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Tariffs or no tariffs played ping pong with Brent crude yesterday. Brent crude traded to a joyous high of USD 66.13/b yesterday as a US court rejected Trump’s tariffs. Though that ruling was later overturned again with Brent closing down 1.2% on the day to USD 64.15/b. 

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

US commercial oil inventories fell 0.7 mb last week versus a seasonal normal rise of 3-6 mb. US commercial crude and product stocks fell 0.7 mb last week which is fairly bullish since the seasonal normal is for a rise of  4.3 mb. US crude stocks fell 2.8 mb, Distillates fell 0.7 mb and Gasoline stocks fell 2.4 mb.

All eyes are now on OPEC V8 (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Algeria, Russia, Oman, Kazakhstan) which will make a decision tomorrow on what to do with production for July. Overall they are in a process of placing 2.2 mb/d of cuts back into the market over a period stretching out to December 2026. Following an expected hike of 137 kb/d in April they surprised the market by lifting production targets by 411 kb/d for May and then an additional 411 kb/d again for June. It is widely expected that the group will decide to lift production targets by another 411 kb/d also for July. That is probably mostly priced in the market. As such it will probably not have all that much of a bearish bearish price impact on Monday if they do.

It is still a bit unclear what is going on and why they are lifting production so rapidly rather than at a very gradual pace towards the end of 2026. One argument is that the oil is needed in the market as Middle East demand rises sharply in summertime. Another is that the group is partially listening to Donald Trump which has called for more oil and a lower price. The last is that Saudi Arabia is angry with Kazakhstan which has produced 300 kb/d more than its quota with no indications that they will adhere to their quota.

So far we have heard no explicit signal from the group that they have abandoned the plan of measured increases with monthly assessments so that the 2.2 mb/d is fully back in the market by the end of 2026. If the V8 group continues to lift quotas by 411 kb/d every month they will have revived the production by the full 2.2 mb/d already in September this year. There are clearly some expectations in the market that this is indeed what they actually will do. But this is far from given. Thus any verbal wrapping around the decision for July quotas on Saturday will be very important and can have a significant impact on the oil price. So far they have been tightlipped beyond what they will do beyond the month in question and have said nothing about abandoning the ”gradually towards the end of 2026” plan. It is thus a good chance that they will ease back on the hikes come August, maybe do no changes for a couple of months or even cut the quotas back a little if needed.

Significant OPEC+ spare capacity will be placed back into the market over the coming 1-2 years. What we do know though is that OPEC+ as a whole as well as the V8 subgroup specifically have significant spare capacity at hand which will be placed back into the market over the coming year or two or three. Probably an increase of around 3.0 – 3.5 mb/d. There is only two ways to get it back into the market. The oil price must be sufficiently low so that 1) Demand growth is stronger and 2) US shale oil backs off. In combo allowing the spare capacity back into the market.

Low global inventories stands ready to soak up 200-300 mb of oil. What will cushion the downside for the oil price for a while over the coming year is that current, global oil inventories are low and stand ready to soak up surplus production to the tune of 200-300 mb.

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