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Analys

SEB – Råvarukommentarer vecka 18 2012

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Sammanfattning: Föregående vecka

  • Analyser - Prognos på priser för råvarorBrett råvaruindex: +1,62 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI TR Index
  • Energi: +1,42 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Energy TR Index
  • Ädelmetaller: +2,12 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Precious Metals TR Index
  • Industrimetaller: +3,47 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Industrial Metals TR Index
  • Jordbruk: +0,59 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Agriculture TR Index

Kortsiktig marknadsvy:

  • Guld: Neutral/köp
  • Olja: Sälj
  • Koppar: Sälj
  • Majs: Sälj
  • Vete: Neutral/sälj

Guld

Guldkursen januari 2011 till april 2012

  • Guldet steg 1,97 procent förra veckan och har för tillfället svårt att bryta ut på uppsidan. Flera länder går till val i Europa vilket försvårar för gemensamma förhandlingar. Tidigare överenskommelser såsom den förhandlade budgetpakten, som drivits fram av Tyskland, kan komma att rivas upp eller omförhandlas vilket försvagar euron och ger styrka till dollarn vilket i sin tur dämpar guldpriset.
  • I USA redovisade U.S Mint guldmyntförsäljningen för april vilken var den lägsta på fem år. Endast 17 000 troy ounce (ett troy ounce är ca 31 gram) har sålts i april jämfört med 70 000 ton under årets tre första månader. Spekulativa positioner på Comex har också minskat.
  • Fed lämnade räntan oförändrad vilket ger stöd åt guldpriset samtidigt som avsaknaden av ytterligare stimulanser verkade dämpande. Guldpriset var oför-ändrat på Feds räntebesked.
  • Centralbanker är fortfarande nettoköpare av guld och den ryska centralbanken ökade sin reserv med 15,5 ton. Guldet kommer troligen från inhemsk produktion. Börsen i Shanghai kommer att införa högre marginalkrav för några råvaror, däribland guld. Höjningen träder i kraft den 27:e april. Detta kan tillfälligt förhindra prisökningar.
  • Teknisk Analys: Dubbelbotten? Bara marginella rörelser noterade sedan förra fredagen. Dock har vi fått ett par spikar på nedsidan vilket visar att köparna har visat intresse under 1640 området något som vi tolkar lätt positivt. Som tidigare krävs dock åtminstone en uppgång över 1680 för att öka på sannolikheten för att en botten äntligen är på plats.

Köp SEB Råvarucertifikat GULD S

Olja

Pris på brentolja 2011-01-04 till 2012-04-27

  • Europa fortsätter att oroa marknaden och statistik från det viktiga dragloket Tyskland har varit sämre än förväntat. Preliminära inköpschefsindexet för den tyska industrin sjönk till 46,3 i april jämfört med 48,4 i mars. Det är den lägsta siffran på 33 månader. Att S & P:s beslutade att sänka Spaniens kreditbetyg två steg med fortsatt negativa utsikter spär på oro och ovisshet.
  • Fed lämnade räntan oförändrad på onsdagen med en förväntad låg ränta t.o.m. slutet av 2014 eftersom de ekonomiska förhållandena enligt Fed kräver en extrem lågräntepolitik. Vad gäller kvantitativa lättnader så är Fed redo att göra mer om förhållanden i marknaden skulle kräva det. Oljepriset steg på beskedet att Fed trots allt reviderade upp sin prognos för amerikansk tillväxt i 2012.
  • Förra veckan gjorde Iran ett utspel där landet meddelade att man kommer att överväga Rysslands förslag om att inte vidareutveckla landets kärnvapenprogram och att tillåta ytterligare inspektioner. Utspelet kan mycket väl vara ett sätt för landet att vinna tid. Oljan sjönk en procent efter uttalandet. Nytt atommöte med Iran kommer att hållas i Bagdad den 23:e maj.
  • Veckostatistik från American Petroleum Institute (API) visade att råoljelager föll med en miljon fat medan onsdagens DOE siffra visade att råoljelager steg med fyra miljoner fat mot förväntade tre miljoner.
  • Teknisk Analys: Återtest av bandet & sedan ned. Vi bör nu vara i slutfasen av återtestet av 55 dagars bandet (vi flaggade för förra veckan). Återtestet har gått långsammare än förväntat vilket å andra sidan visar på lågt deltagande av köpare, något som passar bra in i vår nu något mer negativ vy.

Köp SEB Råvarucertifikat Short OLJA A S

Koppar

Diagram över kopparprisets utveckling, 2011 till april 2012

  • S & P:s beslutade i torsdags att sänka Spaniens kreditbetyg två steg med fort-satt negativa utsikter. Motiveringen är en ökad risk att spanska staten behöver mer kapital för att kunna bistå bankerna samt risk för två år med recession. Hela Eurozonen fick en känga av S & P: ”strategin att hantera Europas stats-skuldkris fortsätter att sakna effektivitet.” Euroländerna måste besluta om man ska hjälpa Spanien.
  • Dollarn stärktes på S & Ps besked och kopparpriset steg t.o.m något trots dollarns förstärkning.
  • Enligt kinesiska myndigheter importerade Kina 345,7 ton koppar i mars vilket är en minskning med 8 procent från februari. Flera rapporter bekräftar att koppar-lagren i Kina är välfyllda till bredden. Inkluderat 600 000 ton i frihamnslager uppges lagren uppgå till 1 miljon ton. Enligt estimat finns ¾ av globala lager i Kina nu. Marknaden i Kina är stängd idag.
  • Terminskurvan i koppar är i backwardation dvs. framtida förväntade priser är billigare än aktuellt pris och denna skillnad blir allt större vilket vi tolkar som att tillgången på koppar utanför Kina är begränsad USA:s BNP ökade med 2,2 procent på årlig basis under det första kvartalet vilket var lägre än vad analytiker hade räknat med enligt Bloomberg. Siffran kan tolkas på så sätt att sannolikheten för kvantitativa lättnader ökar.
  • Teknisk Analys: Färdig korrektion. Studsen upp från trend linjen blev lite starkare än vad vi initialt räknade med (8218) vilket i och för sig inte ändrar nå-got av den större vyn. Vi ser fortfarande marknaden som negativ och kommer att fortsätta göra så länge vi inte återetablerar oss över medelvärdesbanden.

Analys - Köp SEB Certifikat Short KOPPA A S

Majs

Majsets prisutveckling mellan januari 2011 och april 2012

  • Majspriset steg ca en halv procent förra veckan. Vi kan se en fortsatt hög volatilitet i majsmarknaden, där majkontraktet i Chicago handlades upp och ned med några procent varje dag, men utan tydlig riktning.
  • En faktor som hjälpt till att trycka upp priset är den kinesiska efterfrågan, där USDA i början av veckan kom ut med statistik som påvisade en god export av amerikansk majs till okända destinationer. Det kunde senare under veckan bekräftas att en stor del av denna majs gått till Kina.
  • Samtidigt har det spekulerats en hel del kring huruvida den goda starten på den amerikanska majsplanteringen ska kunna fortsätta på samma sätt framöver, där det funnits en viss oro för att det kalla väder som råder norr om flera viktiga majsstater ska leta sig söderut. Då en mängd prognoser visat på att så inte är fallet har oron minskat och med dessa även efterfrågan på majs.
  • Vi anser inte att förra veckans uppgång kan motiveras av stark efterfrågan från Kina och tror med detta att majspriset under den kommande veckan kommer att kunna falla tillbaka något.
  • Teknisk Analys: Lite förvirrat. Efter det falska brottet under botten linjen samt efterföljande test och studs av densamma ser det ut som om marknaden skulle kunna vara på väg att söka sig norrut. Å andra sidan har vi än så länge inte lyckats hålla oss kvar över mitten punkten, 624, av den kraftigt stigande ”candlen” per 30:e mars. För att minska förvirringen måste vi bryta antingen 632 eller 609 ½.

Analys - Köp SEB Certifikat Short MAJS A S

Vete

EU milling wheat (Matif) - Prisutveckling

  • Vetet i Paris föll nära två procent veckan som gick. För närvarande är korrelationen mellan det amerikanska och det europeiska vetet mycket låg.
  • I Europa är det en blandad utveckling med förhållandevis goda prognoser avseende veteskörden i Tyskland, Storbritannien och Frankrike. Samtidigt är förutsättningarna bedrövliga i Spanien, där man gång på gång tvingas justera ned sina produktionsestimat.
  • I början av veckan kom International Grains Councils senaste spannmålsrapport, i vilken organisationen justerar ned sin prognos för den globala veteskörden. Denna nedrevidering av tidigare estimat är i princip uteslutande baserad på de europeiska köldproblemen från första kvartalet.
  • Vi förhåller oss neutrala till svagt negativa till vetet i Paris denna vecka, där vi dock är beredda att snabbt positionera oss mot en nedgång om planteringssiffrorna fortsätter att överraska oss positivt i USA och Europa.
  • Teknisk Analys: Tunga motstånd bromsar. Efter att i princip ha tangerat årshögsta faller vi tillbaka något i vad som får anses vara en mindre vinsthemtagning. Vidare behöver nog marknaden samla lite styrka för att kunna ta sig an ett så pass tungt motstånd som 219-området. Det mest troliga utfallet ser ut att bli intervall handel mellan medelvärdesbandet och topp området.

Analys - Köp SEB Certifikat Short VETE A S

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Disclaimer

The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”).

Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.

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Analys

Very relaxed at USD 75/b. Risk barometer will likely fluctuate to higher levels with Brent into the 80ies or higher coming 2-3 weeks

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent rallied 12% last week. But closed the week below USD 75/b and it is still there. Very relaxed. Brent crude rallied 12% to USD 78.5/b in the early hours of Friday as Israel attacked Iran. The highest level since 27 January this year. The level didn’t hold and Brent closed the day at USD 74.23/b which was up 5.7% on the day and 11.7% on the week. On Friday it was still very unclear how extensive and lasting this war between Iran and Israel would be. Energy assets in Iran had still not been touched and Iran had not targeted other Middle East countries’ energy assets or US military bases in the region. As such, the Brent crude closed the week comfortably at around USD 75/b. Which one cannot argue is very much of a stressed price level. 

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Israel is targeting Iran’s domestic energy infrastructure. Not its energy export facilities. For now. Over the weekend Israel has widened its targets to include fuel depots in Tehran, refineries supplying Iran domestically and also a processing plant at Iran’s South Pars gas field – the world’s largest. So far it appears that Israel has refrained from hurting Iranian oil and gas export facilities. Maybe adhering to Trump’s whish of low oil prices. Trump has been begging for a lower oil price. Would be very frustrating for him if Israel started to blow up Iran’s export facilities. Focus instead looks to be on Iran’s domestic energy supply and infrastructure. To weaken and disable the operations of Iran as a country while leaving Iran’s energy export facilities intact for now at least. That is probably why Brent crude this morning is only trading at USD 74.9/b with little change from Friday. An incredible relaxed price level given what is going on in the Middle East. 

Israel seems to try to do to Iran what Israel recently did to Lebanon. Israel now seems to have close to total control of the Iranian air space. So called ”Air Supremacy” something which is rarely achieved according to Phillips P. O’Brian (see comment on this below with link). This is giving Israel close to total freedom in the airspace over Iran. Israel now seems to try to do to Iran what Israel recently did to Lebanon. Take out military and political commanders. Take out the air defenses. Then grind the rest of its defensive capacities to the ground over some time.

Continuous pressure. No rest. No letting up for several weeks seems likely. The current situation is a very rare opportunity for Israel to attack Iran with full force. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian strongholds in Syria, are all severely weakened or disabled. And now also Air Supremacy of the airspace over Iran. It is natural to assume that Israel will not let this opportunity pass. As such it will likely continue with full force over several weeks to come, at least, with Israel grinding down the rest of Iran’s defensive capabilities and domestic energy supply facilities as far as possible. Continuous pressure. No rest. No letting up.

What to do with Fordow? Will Iran jump to weapons grade uranium? The big question is of course Iran’s nuclear facilities. Natanz with 16,000 enrichment centrifuges was destroyed by Israel on Friday. It was only maximum 20 meters below ground. It was where Iran had mass enrichment to low enrichment levels. Fordow is a completely different thing. It is 500 meters deep under a mountain. It is where enrichment towards weapons grade Uranium takes place. Iran today has 408 kg of highly enriched uranium (IAEA) which can be enriched to weapons grade. It is assumed that Iran will only need 2-3 days to make 25 kg of weapons grade uranium and three weeks to make enough for 9 nuclear warheads. How Israel decides to deal with Fordow is the big question. Ground forces? Help from the US?

Also, if Iran is pushed to the end of the line, then it might decide to enrich to weapons grade which again will lead to a cascade of consequences.

Brent is extremely relaxed at USD 75/b. But at times over coming 2-3 weeks the risk barometer will likely move higher with Brent moving into the 80ies or higher. The oil price today is extremely relaxed with the whole thing. Lots of OPEC+ spare capacity allows loss of Iranian oil exports. Israeli focus on Iran’s domestic energy systems rather than on its exports facilities is also soothing the market. But at times over the coming two, three weeks the risk barometer will likely move significantly higher as it might seem like the situation in the Middle East may move out of control. So Brent into the 80ies or higher seems highly likely in the weeks to come. At times at least. And if it all falls apart, the oil price will of course move well above 100.

Phillips P. OBrien on ”Air Supremacy” (embedded link): Air power historian Philip Meilinger: ”Air Superiority is defined as being able to conduct air operations “without prohibitive interference by the opposing force.” Air Supremacy goes further, wherein the opposing air force is incapable of effective interference.”

Thus, air supremacy is an entirely different beast from air superiority. It occurs when one power basically controls the skies over an enemy, and can operate practically anywhere/time that it wants without much fear of enemy interference in its operations.

The US had Air Supremacy over Germany in the second World War, but only at the very end when it was close to over. It only had Air Superiority in the Vietnam war, but not Supremacy. During Desert Storm in 1990-1991 however it did have Supremacy with devastating consequences for the enemy. (last paragraph is a condensed summary).

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Analys

Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b to make cheating unprofitable for Kazakhstan

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent jumping 2.4% as OPEC+ lifts quota by ”only” 411 kb/d in July. Brent crude is jumping 2.4% this morning to USD 64.3/b following the decision by OPEC+ this weekend to lift the production cap of ”Voluntary 8” (V8) by 411 kb/d in July and not more as was feared going into the weekend. The motivation for the triple hikes of 411 kb/d in May and June and now also in July has been a bit unclear: 1) Cheating by Kazakhstan and Iraq, 2) Muhammed bin Salman listening to Donald Trump for more oil and a lower oil price in exchange for weapons deals and political alignments in the Middle East and lastly 3) Higher supply to meet higher demand for oil this summer. The argument that they are taking back market share was already decided in the original plan of unwinding the 2.2 mb/d of V8 voluntary cuts by the end of 2026. The surprise has been the unexpected speed with monthly increases of 3×137 kb/d/mth rather than just 137 kb/d monthly steps.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

No surplus yet. Time-spreads tightened last week. US inventories fell the week before last. In support of point 3) above it is worth noting that the Brent crude oil front-end backwardation strengthened last week (sign of tightness) even when the market was fearing for a production hike of more than 411 kb/d for July. US crude, diesel and gasoline stocks fell the week before last with overall commercial stocks falling 0.7 mb versus a normal rise this time of year of 3-6 mb per week. So surplus is not here yet. And more oil from OPEC+ is welcomed by consumers.

Saudi Arabia calling the shots with Russia objecting. This weekend however we got to know a little bit more. Saudi Arabia was predominantly calling the shots and decided the outcome. Russia together with Oman and Algeria opposed the hike in July and instead argued for zero increase. What this alures to in our view is that it is probably the cheating by Kazakhstan and Iraq which is at the heart of the unexpectedly fast monthly increases. Saudi Arabia cannot allow it to be profitable for the individual members to cheat. And especially so when Kazakhstan explicitly and blatantly rejects its quota obligation stating that they have no plans of cutting production from 1.77 mb/d to 1.47 mb/d. And when not even Russia is able to whip Kazakhstan into line, then the whole V8 project is kind of over.

Is it simply a decision by Saudi Arabia to unwind faster altogether? What is still puzzling though is that despite the three monthly hikes of 411 kb/d, the revival of the 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts is still kind of orderly. Saudi Arabia could have just abandoned the whole V8 project from one month to the next. But we have seen no explicit communication that the plan of reviving the cuts by the end of 2026 has been abandoned. It may be that it is simply a general change of mind by Saudi Arabia where the new view is that production cuts altogether needs to be unwinded sooner rather than later. For Saudi Arabia it means getting its production back up to 10 mb/d. That implies first unwinding the 2.2 mb/d and then the next 1.6 mb/d.

Brent would likely crash with a fast unwind of 2.2 + 1.6 mb/d by year end. If Saudi Arabia has decided on a fast unwind it would meant that the group would lift the quotas by 411 kb/d both in August and in September. It would then basically be done with the 2.2 mb/d revival. Thereafter directly embark on reviving the remaining 1.6 mb/d. That would imply a very sad end of the year for the oil price. It would then probably crash in Q4-25. But it is far from clear that this is where we are heading.

Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b or lower to make it unprofitable for Kazakhstan to cheat. To make it unprofitable for Kazakhstan to cheat. Kazakhstan is currently producing 1.77 mb/d versus its quota which before the hikes stood at 1.47 kb/d. If they had cut back to the quota level they might have gotten USD 70/b or USD 103/day. Instead they choose to keep production at 1.77 mb/d. For Saudi Arabia to make it a loss-making business for Kazakhstan to cheat the oil price needs to fall below USD 58/b ( 103/1.77).

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Analys

All eyes on OPEC V8 and their July quota decision on Saturday

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Tariffs or no tariffs played ping pong with Brent crude yesterday. Brent crude traded to a joyous high of USD 66.13/b yesterday as a US court rejected Trump’s tariffs. Though that ruling was later overturned again with Brent closing down 1.2% on the day to USD 64.15/b. 

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

US commercial oil inventories fell 0.7 mb last week versus a seasonal normal rise of 3-6 mb. US commercial crude and product stocks fell 0.7 mb last week which is fairly bullish since the seasonal normal is for a rise of  4.3 mb. US crude stocks fell 2.8 mb, Distillates fell 0.7 mb and Gasoline stocks fell 2.4 mb.

All eyes are now on OPEC V8 (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Algeria, Russia, Oman, Kazakhstan) which will make a decision tomorrow on what to do with production for July. Overall they are in a process of placing 2.2 mb/d of cuts back into the market over a period stretching out to December 2026. Following an expected hike of 137 kb/d in April they surprised the market by lifting production targets by 411 kb/d for May and then an additional 411 kb/d again for June. It is widely expected that the group will decide to lift production targets by another 411 kb/d also for July. That is probably mostly priced in the market. As such it will probably not have all that much of a bearish bearish price impact on Monday if they do.

It is still a bit unclear what is going on and why they are lifting production so rapidly rather than at a very gradual pace towards the end of 2026. One argument is that the oil is needed in the market as Middle East demand rises sharply in summertime. Another is that the group is partially listening to Donald Trump which has called for more oil and a lower price. The last is that Saudi Arabia is angry with Kazakhstan which has produced 300 kb/d more than its quota with no indications that they will adhere to their quota.

So far we have heard no explicit signal from the group that they have abandoned the plan of measured increases with monthly assessments so that the 2.2 mb/d is fully back in the market by the end of 2026. If the V8 group continues to lift quotas by 411 kb/d every month they will have revived the production by the full 2.2 mb/d already in September this year. There are clearly some expectations in the market that this is indeed what they actually will do. But this is far from given. Thus any verbal wrapping around the decision for July quotas on Saturday will be very important and can have a significant impact on the oil price. So far they have been tightlipped beyond what they will do beyond the month in question and have said nothing about abandoning the ”gradually towards the end of 2026” plan. It is thus a good chance that they will ease back on the hikes come August, maybe do no changes for a couple of months or even cut the quotas back a little if needed.

Significant OPEC+ spare capacity will be placed back into the market over the coming 1-2 years. What we do know though is that OPEC+ as a whole as well as the V8 subgroup specifically have significant spare capacity at hand which will be placed back into the market over the coming year or two or three. Probably an increase of around 3.0 – 3.5 mb/d. There is only two ways to get it back into the market. The oil price must be sufficiently low so that 1) Demand growth is stronger and 2) US shale oil backs off. In combo allowing the spare capacity back into the market.

Low global inventories stands ready to soak up 200-300 mb of oil. What will cushion the downside for the oil price for a while over the coming year is that current, global oil inventories are low and stand ready to soak up surplus production to the tune of 200-300 mb.

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