El Niño: the impact on agricultural commodities
El Niño refers to a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean that has a global impact on weather patterns. The name, which loosely translates to ‘Christ child’, traces its origin…
Analys
Analyser på råvaror från ledande banker och analysföretag. Både längre analysbrev och kortare tradingidéer.
Trade war and Nopec-shake, but market looks like tightening
Brent crude sold off 1.7% yesterday with a close of $61.63/bl but has rebounded 0.4% today trading at $61.8/bl. The sell-off came on the back of a 0.9% decline in S&P 500 and…
Gold outlook 2019 – recovery expected to continue
Gold staged a recovery late in 2018. The yellow metal has recovered most of its losses since June 2018. A collapse in speculative positioning in gold futures drove prices down in…
Crude oil prices needs to move lower in Q1-19
Brent crude closed down 2.8% yesterday at $59.93/bl while WTI closed down a bit more violently 3.2% at $51.99/bl. A 0.8% decline in the S&P 500 was a bearish guiding force for…
Venezuela is bullish but S&P 500 still looks like the driver
Brent crude has gained 21% since Christmas eve following a comparable 12.4% recovery in the S&P 500 index. So just as the sell-off in Brent crude went more or less hand in…
Silver outlook 2019 – not as good as gold
Alongside gold, silver has staged a rally late in 2018, gaining just over 10% in the month of December 2018. Silver’s close correlation with gold (around 80%) helps explain the…
Oil price bottoming in Q1-19 seems like a fair bet
Q1: When will pledged cuts by OPEC+ become visible in oil inventory data? Q2: When will we see softer US oil production growth due to lower oil prices? Q3: When will the global…
Cutting supply of “black crude” will feel like more
The point is that all crudes are not created equal. US supply of ultralight crudes and NGLs is drowning the world with light end products. As a result the gasoline refinery crack…
QT is good for OPEC
It is quite clear that the strong rebound in US shale oil production since early 2016 has been fuelled by access to cheap and easy money derived from the world’s central banks…
OPEC+ tightens the front. Producers lean on the back
We are quite confident that OPEC+ will be successful in tightening up the front end of the oil market thus keeping the Brent crude oil 1mth contract in $60+/bl territory over the…