Shale oil reaction function is changing and OPEC is happy
Brent crude had a strong week last week with four out of five closes at the highest level since late September. Recession fears eased (US 10yr moved from 1.71% to 1.94%) and…
Analys
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Shale: Profits over volume. Saudi: IMO-2020 is coming
Saudi Arabia has lifted its Official Selling Price (OSP) for its Arab Super Light grade for December delivery to the highest premium versus the Dubai benchmark since early 2014.…
Oil perspectives: Q4-19 is Q4-18 in bullish reverse
Brent crude got a real jolt upwards on Friday with a gain of 2.4% and a close of $61.69/bl. The whole curve moved up in parallel. Also industrial metals gained 1.1% with a…
Bearish 2020 oil narrative starting to dissipate
The oil market headlines have been bearish, bearish and bearish for a long time now. The physical spot market has been tight (and still is) with front-end backwardation in the…
Oil prices finding strength in rapidly declining mid-dist stocks
US crude stocks data ydy showed a build of 9.3 m bl last week which was almost as high as the 10.5 m bl indicated by API the day before. US refineries are running well below…
US oil fundamentals deteriorating much more than global
US equities gained 1% yesterday and the USD index pulled back 0.2% but neither commodities in general nor oil prices specifically got any tailwind from that. Brent crude pulled…
Almost unanimous bearish consensus for 2020
Brent crude gained 2.4% on Friday with a close at $60.51/bl on the back of a partial US – China trade deal, Brexit optimism as well as a missile attack on the Iranian oil tanker…
US shale oil production growth to slow sharply in 2020
Baker Hughes US oil rig count has declined by 178 rigs since the recent peak of 888 rigs in mid-November 2018 with latest count now at 710. If anything the rig count decline has…
High risk for repeated attacks. Bearish concerns overstated
For two days in a row the Brent crude oil price has traded quite hard to the downside during intra-day trading before kicking back up again towards the close. A lot of the gains…
More for longer and highly vulnerable ($75-85/bl)
The message from Saudi Arabia is now that it will take longer than first expected before production is fully back to normal. We are also getting military assessments saying that…