A man with a moustache is pushing Iran into the corner
Donald Trump’s threat to add 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports is this morning sending Shanghai equities down 6%, S&P 500 futures down 1.7% and Brent crude down 2.1% to…
Analys
Analyser på råvaror från ledande banker och analysföretag. Både längre analysbrev och kortare tradingidéer.
Iran – Reactive Saudi means price will tick higher
Saudi Arabia pre-emptively and proactively lifted oil production last year in anticipation of US sanctions towards Iran. Sanctions were supposed to be more or less “cold…
The WTI bulls are coming. Curve set to flip to backwardation
A cocktail of bullish factors are hitting the supply side. We have ongoing cuts by OPEC+. Venezuela is deteriorating rapidly with latest news that due to a blackout its main port…
Bearish macro backdrop but bull-drivers inch it higher
Brent crude moved up 1.2% over the past week to a close of $66.67/bl yesterday. The move was mostly in the front part of the curve thus driving the curve more into backwardation.…
Biggest Brent/WTI curve-shape-divergence since Feb 2016
Brent crude traded down 1.0% yesterday to $61.51/bl following a 1% decline last week. A stronger USD was again an important negative driver as the dollar index gained 0.4%…
El Niño: the impact on agricultural commodities
El Niño refers to a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean that has a global impact on weather patterns. The name, which loosely translates to ‘Christ child’, traces its origin…
Trade war and Nopec-shake, but market looks like tightening
Brent crude sold off 1.7% yesterday with a close of $61.63/bl but has rebounded 0.4% today trading at $61.8/bl. The sell-off came on the back of a 0.9% decline in S&P 500 and…
Gold outlook 2019 – recovery expected to continue
Gold staged a recovery late in 2018. The yellow metal has recovered most of its losses since June 2018. A collapse in speculative positioning in gold futures drove prices down in…
Crude oil prices needs to move lower in Q1-19
Brent crude closed down 2.8% yesterday at $59.93/bl while WTI closed down a bit more violently 3.2% at $51.99/bl. A 0.8% decline in the S&P 500 was a bearish guiding force for…
Venezuela is bullish but S&P 500 still looks like the driver
Brent crude has gained 21% since Christmas eve following a comparable 12.4% recovery in the S&P 500 index. So just as the sell-off in Brent crude went more or less hand in…