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SEB – Råvarukommentarer vecka 17 2012

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Sammanfattning: Föregående vecka

  • Analyser - Prognos på priser för råvarorBrett råvaruindex: +0,33 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI TR Index
  • Energi: +0,37 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Energy TR Index
  • Ädelmetaller: -0,15 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Precious Metals TR Index
  • Industrimetaller: +1,75 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Industrial Metals TR Index
  • Jordbruk: +0,14 %
    UBS Bloomberg CMCI Agriculture TR Index

Kortsiktig marknadsvy:

  • Guld: Neutral
  • Olja: Sälj
  • Koppar: Sälj
  • Majs: Neutral/sälj
  • Vete: Neutral

Guld

Guldpriset och spekulativa positioner fram till 2012-04-20

  • Guldpriset föll 0,4 procent förra veckan. Under veckan låg fokus på spanska obligationsemissioner, spansk 10-års ränta steg igen över 6 procent.
  • Utvecklingen i Spanien är problematisk. Landet tyngs av stigande räntor, problem att få ner det offentliga underskottet och eventuella ytterligare behov att stötta banker.
  • Det krävs besparingar vilka riskerar en ännu sämre ekonomisk utveckling som följd.
  • Öppna positioner i terminskontrakt på Comex föll veckan som gick vilket grafen till vänster visar men fysiska guld ETF: er såg inga större in eller utflöden och världens största guld ETF SPDR har inte haft utflöden under veckan.
  • Efterfrågan på guld i Indien kommer sannolikt att öka i samband med veckans festival ”Akshaya Tritya”.
  • På onsdag riktas blickarna mot USA och räntebesked från FOMC. Indikationer på ytterligare QE3 kommer att ha stor betydelse för guldprisets utveckling.
  • Teknisk Analys: Efter ett försök upp i medelvärdesbanden har vi under inne-varande vecka åter drivit ned under dessa. Detta är dock ännu ingen fara på taket och vi vidhåller att en potentiell lågpunkt har passerats så länge vi inte faller under 1611. En uppgång och framför allt en stängning över 1680 skulle vara klart positivt för vår positiva vy,

Neutral åsikt om guldpriset på kort sikt

Olja

Brentoljans prisutveckling januari 2011 till april 2012

  • Oljepriset steg åter på fredagen och det prisfall vi sett i början av veckan återhämtades och priset stängde oförändrat jämfört med föregående vecka.
  • Oron kring Iran och landets atomenergiprogram har minskat efter förra helgen då västländer mötte Iran för samtal som beskrevs ha varit ”konstruktiva”.
  • Irans oljeminister uttalade emellertid förra veckan att Iran kommer att sluta exportera till Europa om inte nästa möte i Bagdad, den 23 maj, blir ”positivt”.
  • Europa har redan beslutat om ett totalförbud mot import av iransk olja från den först juli och många oljebolag har förberett sig på förbudet genom att leta substitut från bland annat Saudiarabien och Förenade Arabemiraten.
  • Tisdagens APIs oljestatistik visare att råoljelagersteg steg med 3,4 miljoner fat. DOE data på onsdagen visade att råoljelager steg med 3,9 miljoner fat.
  • Enligt Bloomberg News räknar 17 av 30 analytiker med sjunkande oljepriser
  • Teknisk Analys: I och med nedgången under 55dagars bandet har vi övergivit vår medelsiktigt positiva vy och anser att sannolikheten för att få se den sista (?) uppgången till 129- 131 nu måste betraktas som låg. Ett återtest av 55dagars bandet för att prova validiteten i brottet ligger i korten för nästkommande vecka. Vi tror att man ska sälja en sådan reaktion till 120/122.

Sälj olja med SEB råvarucertifikat Short Olja A S

Koppar

Spekulativa positioner i koppar - Graf

  • Kopparpriset steg 2,7 procent förra veckan.
  • HSBC:s inköpschefsindex för Kina visade 49.1 för april. Det var en ökning från förra månadens siffra, 48.3, men det är samtidigt den sjätte månaden i rad som indexet hamnar under 50-nivån (som innebär att fler ser försämring än förbättring).
  • Man har sett att fastighetspriser i 37 av 70 städer i Kina föll nio procent på årlig basis i mars vilket kan tyda på en viss nedkylning i landets ekonomi. Kinesiska myndigheter har uttryckt en önskan att se lägre fastighetspriser.
  • Kinas import av koppar har varit stadig en längre tid. Mycket tyder på att importen har hamnat i lager och många analytiker anser att kinesiska kopparlager ligger på rekordhöga nivåer.
  • Kortsiktigt fortsätter vi att tro på ett lägre kopparpris.
  • Teknisk Analys: Brottet ned ur topp formationen bör inom kort fortsätta pressa priserna lägre. Den lilla reaktion vi nu sett ifrån den medellånga stödlinjen ser väldigt svag ut och bör därför snart reverseras och en ny nedgångsfas ta vid.

Sälj koppar med Short KOPPA A S - SEB råvarucertifikat

Majs

Spekulativa positioner i majs fram tom april 2012

  • Vår kortsiktigt negativa syn på majsen har visat sig stämma förhållandevis väl den senaste tiden. Under förra veckan gick priset på majkontraktet i Chicago ned med 2,66 procent. Då den amerikanska dollarn försvagades under samma period var den motsvarande rörelsen i svenska kronor en nedgång med över 4 procent.
  • En stark drivkraft bakom förra veckans negativa prisutveckling var planteringen av majs i USA, där det amerikanska jordbruksdepartementet (USDA) i sin rap-port från den 17/4 meddelade att 17 procent av landets skörd nu har planterats. För ett år sedan hade 5 procent planterats och snittet de senaste fem åren ligger även det på 5 procent. Varmt väder under mars och god nederbörd under första halvan av april innebär mycket goda förutsättningar för planteringen av majs.
  • I Chicago fortsätter andelen spekulativa majsköpare att minska. Odlingsprocessen i USA samt positiva väderprognoser minskar incitamentet att ha majs i portföljen. Man bör dock vara medveten om att det från kinesiskt håll har uttryckts intresse för att köpa majs om priserna fortsätter falla, vilket innebär att det bör finnas ett golv för majsen. För att priset ska nå detta golv bör det nog falla runt 10 procent från nuvarande nivå.
  • Det som möjligen skulle kunna tala för majsen den närmaste tiden är fortsatta försämringar av utbudet från Argentina och Brasilien, detta efter ovanligt torra väderförhållanden de senaste månaderna.
  • Fundamentalt förhåller vi oss svagt negativa till majspriset.
  • Teknisk Analys: Det misslyckade brottet under 624 ½ tillsammans med relativt aggressivt köpande efter det falska brottet gör att vi ser en viss ytterligare uppåtpotential för nästkommande vecka. Om historien ska fortsätta upprepa sig borde vi inom ett par veckor igen testa den övre delen av årets intervall.

Kommande pris på majs

Vete

Prisutveckling på vete (Matif)

  • Till skillnad från vetet i Chicago kunde vi under förra veckan se en uppgång hos kvarnvetet i Paris. Bakgrunden till detta är att samtidigt som utsikterna för den amerikanska skörden ser goda ut är de desto sämre i Europa. En del analytiker bedömer att den franska veteskörden kommer att bli något sämre än tidigare, detta efter den kalla vintern.
  • Ett Europeiskt land som har stora problem med spannmålsproduktionen är Spanien, där det spanska jordbruksdepartementet i sin senaste prognos be-dömer att landets veteproduktion kommer att falla med 22 procent jämfört med förra året. Trots att den ryska skörden som en konsekvens av den kalla vin-tern väntas bli något lägre än föregående skördeår verkar landets export bli omfattande. Den stora flaskhalsen är dock logistiken, där dåliga vägar och svaga järnvägsförbindelser begränsar flödet från de centrala delarna av landet ut till hamnarna.
  • På investeringssidan fortsätter förvaltarna att dra ned sin exponering mot vete, en utveckling som varit rådande sedan slutet av mars.
  • Det är intressant att följa efterfrågerelationen mellan vete i USA och i Europa. Fortsätter priset att stiga i Europa och minska i USA bör reaktionen bli en minskad efterfrågan på MATIF-vete.
  • Fundamentalt är vi försiktiga säljare av vete, detta särskilt då majspriset fortsätter att falla. De tekniska signalerna visar istället på en fortsatt uppgång som mest trolig och därför är vi denna vecka neutrala när det gäller vetepriset.
  • Teknisk Analys: Så där jag, efter flera veckor av kontinuerligt köpande i 55dagars bandet har marknaden innevarande vecka dragit iväg norrut. Ett nytt årshögsta ligger i korten och ett lyckat brott över 219 sätter fokus på 2011 års topp, 254. Följaktligen rekommenderar vi att även framgent ligga lång. Möjligtvis kommer en viss vinsthemtagning att ske vid 221/22.

Neutral prognos på vete

[box]SEB Veckobrev Veckans råvarukommentar är producerat av SEB Merchant Banking och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]

Disclaimer

The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”).

Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.

About SEB

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SEB is a public company incorporated in Stockholm, Sweden, with limited liability. It is a participant at major Nordic and other European Regulated Markets and Multilateral Trading Facilities (as well as some non-European equivalent markets) for trading in financial instruments, such as markets operated by NASDAQ OMX, NYSE Euronext, London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Börse, Swiss Exchanges, Turquoise and Chi-X. SEB is authorized and regulated by Finansinspektionen in Sweden; it is authorized and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK, and is subject to the provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where SEB conducts operations. SEB Merchant Banking. All rights reserved.

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Analys

Metals rallied ahead of spot fundamentals, but better times are indeed ahead

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Industrial metals rallied close to 25% from 1 Dec-2023 to 20 May-2024 as marginal optimism replaced recession fears. But prices have pulled back a bit since then as economic growth optimism has run ahead of spot fundamentals. Industrial metals prices rallied close to 25% from 1 Dec-2023 to 20 May-2024. A solid gain on the back of reviving optimism as global manufacturing PMI’s rose from depressed levels in December to now just above the 50-line. Speculative money rolled into the space to catch a ride on economic revival as well as wanting to hold commodities as a sort of protection against inflation. But the actual state of the global economy isn’t all that strong yet.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Rather it is quite weak in absolute terms with the global manufacturing PMI barely just above the 50-line and barely in expansionary territory. Thus, prompt weaknesses can be seen in many places in both metals and energy with rising inventories and weakening curve structures and premiums. The price rally has thus been on a collision course with spot fundamentals. And that eventually helped to bring metals prices back down a bit since 20 May.

That said we do hold the view that there are better times ahead. Consumer prices are cooling, Covid-19 induced inflation is fading and central banks across the world are set to lower policy rates over the coming year. The ECB just cut its policy rate by 0.25% which is the first cut in 5 years. We think other central banks will follow suite as inflation cools around the world. And that is the real start of economic revival. The global economy will then shift from current patchy growth here and there to a more broad-based upturn. And as such the investors who have driven the bull-train so far will likely be right in the end. It is just a bit early.

Brent Crude. Steady as we go: OPEC+ keeps on holding large volumes off market to support prices. The group has flagged that it wants to return volumes to market but is in no hurry to do so. Fading shale oil growth is shifting market power back to OPEC+.

Nat gas TTF. Crisis behind us but still some tightness. The crisis is now clearly behind us, but the market is still on the tight side with some need for demand destruction as the global LNG market has not yet fully managed to compensate lost Russian gas.

EUA carbon. The trough is behind us. Back to EUR 100/ton in 2025. The EUA price crashed to EUR 49.54/ton intraday on 23 Feb depressed by a crash in nat gas prices, low emissions and front-loading of supply. Prepare for EUR 100/ton or more in 2025.

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Aluminum 3mth. Too far, too fast. Back to USD 2400/ton before gains in 2025. Aluminum has rallied more than USD 400/ton since February to now USD 2613/ton without support from a comparable gain in coal prices or drawdown in inventories. Helped higher by speculative appetite and increased friction in global trade flows due to new sanctions on Russian metals.

Copper 3mth. Prompt market not that tight. Back above USD 10,000/ton in 2025. The LME 3mth rallied to USD 10,889/ton (LME 3mth) and US Comex copper rallied to USD 11,285/ton. Rally was driven by tightness in the US (IRA++) and speculators frontrunning economic acceleration and global copper deficit. But signs of physical weaknesses many places to be seen in premiums and curves. Flat price now coming back off.  But back up above USD 10,000/ton in 2025 and later as market tightens.

Nickel 3mth. Dragged along with the copper rally but Indonesia still looking to grab more market share. The LME 3mth nickel price rallied to USD 21,615/ton in May, dragged along with the industrial metals rally. But decline has been sharp since then. We are not very bullish on Nickel going forward as Indonesia seems to focus on growing market share rather than profits.

Zinc: Joined the rally. Now back down to USD 2800/ton which could be fair price nearest years. The zinc price spent a long time around USD 2500/ton before rallying to USD 3139/ton. But USD 2800/ton will likely be a fair price for zinc the nearest years.

SEB commodities price outlook
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Analys

ECB rate cut and assurances from OPEC+ lifts Brent back to 80

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Back up to the 80-line. Brent crude rose to a close of  USD 79.87/b yesterday and recovered another 1.9% of its recent losses. This morning Brent crude is trading just above the 80-line (+0.2%) aligning well with some smaller gains in industrial metals as well as gains in Asian equities. Market focusing on US payrolls later today. Too hot or too cold?

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Reassurances from OPEC+ helps to drive Brent back up. Brent dropped to USD 76.76/b (intraday) on Tuesday following the OPEC+ meeting last Sunday. That was the lowest since early February this year. Shocked by the price drop, OPEC+ was propelled to issue statements with assurances that they didn’t really mean what they said or say what they meant and that they in no way is shifting away from ”price over volume” with a shift to an aggressive claw-back of market shares. At least not yet. And yes, the group did state explicitly last Sunday that they would only put the 2 m b/d of voluntary cuts back into the market from Q4-24 to Q3-25 if market circumstances would allow it. And no one really believes that there will be room for the return of that volume to the market in that period. So basically it won’t happen. But the issued statements last Sunday still rings very clear to the market: The current production cuts by OPEC+ are not forever. So to all non-OPEC+ producers: Do prepare, do make room, for the return of these volumes. in the years to come. The frustration among the member states of the cartel must be rising steadily as quarter after quarter is passing by and yet again there is no room to return their cuts back into the market. 

ECB rate cuts gives hopes for economic acceleration and oil demand growth. ECB yesterday reduced its policy rate for the first time since 2016 as inflation is coming under control. The hope is that this is the beginning of further rate cuts across many central banks around the world as inflation is coming under control not just in Europe but also across most of the world. And of course further that this will be the start of a more broad based economic acceleration and thus stronger oil demand growth. That is for sure what OPEC+ is hoping for. That stronger oil demand growth will make room for a return of the group’s cuts.

US crude oil production rises to 13.18 m b/d in March, a mere 77 k b/d MoM gain. The US EIA projected in its May report that US crude oil production will continue to rise to 13.9 m b/d by Dec-2025. A slower, but still steady going growth in supply. The latest gains could however indicate that US crude production may flatten totally rather than rise further as current oil prices have done nothing to stimulate further drilling activity in US oil production since November last year. The official monthly US crude oil production for March came in at 13.18 m b/d. It is a recovery following a hard winter with difficult drilling conditions. But it is still below the Dec production level. Nothing would be sweeter news for OPEC+ than seeing US crude production fully flatten here onward. And it would indeed be the correct choice of action by US shale oil producers given that non-OPEC+ producers now has gotten notice: Cuts are not forever.

US crude oil production rises to 13.18 m b/d in March and a mere gain of 77 k b/d MoM and still below Dec-2025.

US crude oil production rises to 13.18 m b/d in March and a mere gain of 77 k b/d MoM and still below Dec-2025.
Source: SEB graph, Blbrg data feed, US EIA data

US EIA is projecting that US crude production will continue to rise and rise though more gradually

US EIA is projecting that US crude production will continue to rise and rise though more gradually
Source: SEB graph, Blbrg data feed, US EIA data
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Analys

Crude oil comment: Fundamentals are key – more volatility ahead

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

This week, Brent Crude prices have declined by USD 2.5 per barrel (3%) since the market opened on Monday. The key driver behind this movement was the OPEC+ meeting last Sunday. Initially, prices fell sharply, with Brent touching USD 76.76 per barrel on Tuesday (June 4th); however, there has been a slight recovery since, with current trading around USD 78.5/bl.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Despite ongoing macroeconomic concerns, price movements have been relatively subdued in the first half of 2024, largely driven by fundamental factors—specifically, concerns around supply and demand, where US DOE data and OPEC+ strategy, remain central to price dynamics.

The US inventory report on Wednesday contributed to bearish market sentiment due to an overall increase in commercial inventories. Following the report, prices dipped approximately USD 1/bl before returning to earlier levels in the week.

According to the US DOE, there was a build in US crude inventories of 1.2 million barrels last week, totaling 455.9 million barrels—around 4% below the five-year average for this period, yet significantly less than the 4.1 million barrels anticipated by the API on Tuesday (see page 11 attached). Gasoline inventories also rose by 2.1 million barrels, slightly less than API’s 4 million barrel expectation, and remain about 1% below the five-year average. Meanwhile, distillate (diesel) inventories saw a substantial increase of 3.2 million barrels, maintaining a position 7% under the five-year average but exceeding the expected 2 million barrels projected by API.

Globally, bearish to sideways price movements during May can be attributed to a healthy build in global crude inventories coupled with stagnant demand. US DOE data exemplifies this with both an increase in commercial crude inventories and rising crude oil imports, which averaged 7.1 million barrels per day last week—a 300k barrel increase from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million barrels per day, reflecting a 3.5% increase compared to the same period last year.

Product demand shows signs of weakening. Gasoline products supplied to the US market averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, a 1% decrease from the previous year, while distillate supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day, down a significant 3.4% from last year. In contrast, jet fuel supply has increased by 13% compared to the same four-week period last year.

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OPEC+ Strategic Shifts

OPEC+ has markedly shifted its strategy from focusing solely on price stability to a dual emphasis on price and volume (more in yesterday’s crude oil comment). Since the COVID-19-induced demand collapse in May 2020, OPEC+ has adeptly managed supply levels to stabilize the market. This dynamic is evolving; OPEC+ no longer adjusts supplies solely based on global demand shifts or non-OPEC+ production changes.

Echoing a strategic move similar to Saudi Arabia’s in 2014, OPEC+ has signaled a nuanced approach. The alliance has planned no production changes for Q3-24 to align supply with expected seasonal demand increases, aiming to maintain market balance. Beyond that, there’s a plan to gradually reintroduce 2 million barrels per day from Q4-24 to Q3-25, with an initial increase of 750,000 barrels per day by January 2025. However, this plan is flexible and subject to adjustment depending on market conditions.

The IEA’s May report forecasts a decrease in OPEC’s call by 0.5 million barrels per day by 2025—a potential loss in market share, which OPEC+ finds unacceptable. The group has openly rejected further cuts, signaling an end to its willingness to lose market share to maintain price stability.

This stance serves as a clear warning to non-OPEC+ producers, particularly US shale operators, that the market shares gained since 2020 are not theirs to keep indefinitely. OPEC+ is determined to reclaim its volumes, potentially influencing future production decisions across the global oil industry. Producers now face the strategic decision to potentially scale back on production increases for 2025.

The confluence of a continuing build in US inventories and OPEC+’s strategic shifts has led to market reactions. In the wake of OPEC+ rhetoric, evaluating the fundamentals is now more important than ever, and increased volatility is expected.

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Even though OPEC+ has signaled its intention to reclaim market share, it plans to maintain current production levels for the next three months while continuously evaluating the situation. Today, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi Energy Minister, spoke at the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg. He highlighted that Sunday’s agreement, like many before it, retains the option to ’pause or reverse’ production changes if deemed necessary. This statement subtly emphasizes that maintaining oil price stability and market balance remains a primary focus for OPEC+. Such rhetoric introduces a new dimension of uncertainty that market participants will need to consider going forward.

If the price continues to fall, OPEC+ remains intent on reclaiming ’their volumes,’ betting on a decrease in non-OPEC supply later this year and into 2025. A potentially weaker oil price, within the USD 70-80/bl range for the remainder of 2024, could help alleviate current inflationary pressures. This in turn may lead to earlier central bank rate cuts and a quicker economic recovery in 2025, thereby reviving global oil demand to the benefit of OPEC+.

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