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Saudi won’t break with OPEC+ to head calls for more oil from Trump

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Rebounding after yesterday’s drop but stays within recent bearish trend. Brent crude sold off 1.8% yesterday with a close of USD 77.08/b. It hit a low on the day of USD 76.3/b. This morning it is rebounding 0.8% to USD 77.7/b. That is still below the 200dma at USD 78.4/b and the downward trend which started 16 January still looks almost linear. A stronger rebound than what we see this morning is needed to break the downward trend.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Saudi won’t break with OPEC+ to head calls for more oil from Trump. OPEC+ will likely stick to its current production plan as it meets next week. The current plan is steady production in February and March and then a gradual, monthly increase of 120 kb/d/mth for 18 months starting in April. These planned increases will however highly likely be modified along the way just as we saw the group’s plans change last year. When they are modified the focus will be to maintain current prices as the primary goal with production growth coming second in line. There is very little chance that Saudi Arabia will unilaterally increase production and break the OPEC+ cooperation in response to recent calls from Trump. If it did, then the rest of OPEC+ would have no choice but to line up and produce more as well with the result that the oil price would totally collapse.

US shale oil producers have no plans to ramp up activity in response to calls from Trump. There are no signs that Trump’s calls for more oil from US producers are bearing any fruits. US shale oil producers are aiming to slow down rather than ramp up activity as they can see the large OPEC+ spare capacity of 5-6 mb/d sitting idle on the sideline. Even the privately held US shale oil players who account for 27% of US oil production are planning to slow down activity this year according to Jefferies Financial Group. US oil drilling rig count falling 6 last week to lowest since Oct 2021 is a reflection of that.

The US EIA projects a problematic oil market from mid-2025. Stronger demand would be the savior. Looking at the latest forecast from the US EIA in its January STEO report one can see why US shale oil producers are reluctant to ramp up production activity. If EIA forecast pans out, then either OPEC+ has to reduce production or US shale oil producers have to if they want to keep current oil prices. The savior would be global economic acceleration and higher oil demand growth.

Saudi Arabia to lift prices for March amid tight Mid-East crude market. But right now, the market is very tight for Mid-East crude due to Biden-sanctions. The 1-3mth Dubai time-spread is rising yet higher this morning. Saudi Arabia will highly likely lift its Official Selling Prices for March in response.

US EIA January STEO report. Global demand and supply growth given as 3mth average y-y diff in mb/d and the outright 3mth average demand diff to 3mth average supply in mb/d. Projects a surplus market where either US shale oil producers have to produce less, or OPEC+ has to produce less.

Global demand and supply growth given as 3mth average y-y diff in mb/d and the outright 3mth average demand diff to 3mth average supply in mb/d.
Source: SEB graph and calculations, US EIA data

Forward prices for ICE gasoil swaps in USD/ton. Deferred contracts at very affordable levels.

Forward prices for ICE gasoil swaps in USD/ton.
Source: SEB graph and highlights, Bloomberg data

Analys

Volatile but going nowhere. Brent crude circles USD 66 as market weighs surplus vs risk

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SEB - analysbrev på råvaror

Brent crude is essentially flat on the week, but after a volatile ride. Prices started Monday near USD 65.5/bl, climbed steadily to a mid-week high of USD 67.8/bl on Wednesday evening, before falling sharply – losing about USD 2/bl during Thursday’s session.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Brent is currently trading around USD 65.8/bl, right back where it began. The volatility reflects the market’s ongoing struggle to balance growing surplus risks against persistent geopolitical uncertainty and resilient refined product margins. Thursday’s slide snapped a three-day rally and came largely in response to a string of bearish signals, most notably from the IEA’s updated short-term outlook.

The IEA now projects record global oversupply in 2026, reinforcing concerns flagged earlier by the U.S. EIA, which already sees inventories building this quarter. The forecast comes just days after OPEC+ confirmed it will continue returning idle barrels to the market in October – albeit at a slower pace of +137,000 bl/d. While modest, the move underscores a steady push to reclaim market share and adds to supply-side pressure into year-end.

Thursday’s price drop also followed geopolitical incidences: Israeli airstrikes reportedly targeted Hamas leadership in Doha, while Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace – events that initially sent crude higher as traders covered short positions.

Yet, sentiment remains broadly cautious. Strong refining margins and low inventories at key pricing hubs like Europe continue to support the downside. Chinese stockpiling of discounted Russian barrels and tightness in refined product markets – especially diesel – are also lending support.

On the demand side, the IEA revised up its 2025 global demand growth forecast by 60,000 bl/d to 740,000 bl/d YoY, while leaving 2026 unchanged at 698,000 bl/d. Interestingly, the agency also signaled that its next long-term report could show global oil demand rising through 2050.

Meanwhile, OPEC offered a contrasting view in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, maintaining expectations for a supply deficit both this year and next, even as its members raise output. The group kept its demand growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 unchanged at 1.29 million bl/d and 1.38 million bl/d, respectively.

We continue to watch whether the bearish supply outlook will outweigh geopolitical risk, and if Brent can continue to find support above USD 65/bl – a level increasingly seen as a soft floor for OPEC+ policy.

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Analys

Waiting for the surplus while we worry about Israel and Qatar

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Brent crude makes some gains as Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar rattles markets. Brent crude spiked to a high of USD 67.38/b yesterday as Israel made a strike on Hamas in Qatar. But it  wasn’t able to hold on to that level and only closed up 0.6% in the end at USD 66.39/b. This morning it is starting on the up with a gain of 0.9% at USD 67/b. Still rattled by Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar yesterday. Brent is getting some help on the margin this morning with Asian equities higher and copper gaining half a percent. But the dark cloud of surplus ahead is nonetheless hanging over the market with Brent trading two dollar lower than last Tuesday.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Geopolitical risk premiums in oil rarely lasts long unless actual supply disruption kicks in. While Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar is shocking, the geopolitical risk lifting crude oil yesterday and this morning is unlikely to last very long as such geopolitical risk premiums usually do not last long unless real disruption kicks in.

US API data yesterday indicated a US crude and product stock build last week of 3.1 mb. The US API last evening released partial US oil inventory data indicating that US crude stocks rose 1.3 mb and middle distillates rose 1.5 mb while gasoline rose 0.3 mb. In total a bit more than 3 mb increase. US crude and product stocks usually rise around 1 mb per week this time of year. So US commercial crude and product stock rose 2 mb over the past week adjusted for the seasonal norm. Official and complete data are due today at 16:30.

A 2 mb/week seasonally adj. US stock build implies a 1 – 1.4 mb/d global surplus if it is persistent. Assume that if the global oil market is running a surplus then some 20% to 30% of that surplus ends up in US commercial inventories. A 2 mb seasonally adjusted inventory build equals 286 kb/d. Divide by 0.2 to 0.3 and we get an implied global surplus of 950 kb/d to 1430 kb/d. A 2 mb/week seasonally adjusted build in US oil inventories is close to noise unless it is a persistent pattern every week.

US IEA STEO oil report: Robust surplus ahead and Brent averaging USD 51/b in 2026. The US EIA yesterday released its monthly STEO oil report. It projected a large and persistent surplus ahead. It estimates a global surplus of 2.2 m/d from September to December this year. A 2.4 mb/d surplus in Q1-26 and an average surplus for 2026 of 1.6 mb/d resulting in an average Brent crude oil price of USD 51/b next year. And that includes an assumption where OPEC crude oil production only averages 27.8 mb/d in 2026 versus 27.0 mb/d in 2024 and 28.6 mb/d in August.

Brent will feel the bear-pressure once US/OECD stocks starts visible build. In the meanwhile the oil market sits waiting for this projected surplus to materialize in US and OECD inventories. Once they visibly starts to build on a consistent basis, then Brent crude will likely quickly lose altitude. And unless some unforeseen supply disruption kicks in, it is bound to happen.

US IEA STEO September report. In total not much different than it was in January

US IEA STEO September report. In total not much different than it was in January
Source: SEB graph. US IEA data

US IEA STEO September report. US crude oil production contracting in 2026, but NGLs still growing. Close to zero net liquids growth in total.

US IEA STEO September report. US crude oil production contracting in 2026, but NGLs still growing. Close to zero net liquids growth in total.
Source: SEB graph. US IEA data
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Analys

Brent crude sticks around $66 as OPEC+ begins the ’slow return’

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Brent crude touched a low of USD 65.07 per barrel on Friday evening before rebounding sharply by USD 2 to USD 67.04 by mid-day Monday. The rally came despite confirmation from OPEC+ of a measured production increase starting next month. Prices have since eased slightly, down USD 0.6 to around USD 66.50 this morning, as the market evaluates the group’s policy, evolving demand signals, and rising geopolitical tension.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

On Sunday, OPEC+ approved a 137,000 barrels-per-day increase in collective output beginning in October – a cautious first step in unwinding the final tranche of 1.66 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts, originally set to remain off the market through end-2026. Further adjustments will depend on ”evolving market conditions.” While the pace is modest – especially relative to prior monthly hikes – the signal is clear: OPEC+ is methodically re-entering the market with a strategic intent to reclaim lost market share, rather than defend high prices.

This shift in tone comes as Saudi Aramco also trimmed its official selling prices for Asian buyers, further reinforcing the group’s tilt toward a volume-over-price strategy. We see this as a clear message: OPEC+ intends to expand market share through steady production increases, and a lower price point – potentially below USD 65/b – may be necessary to stimulate demand and crowd out higher-cost competitors, particularly U.S. shale, where average break-evens remain around WTI USD 50/b.

Despite the policy shift, oil prices have held firm. Brent is still hovering near USD 66.50/b, supported by low U.S. and OECD inventories, where crude and product stocks remain well below seasonal norms, keeping front-month backwardation intact. Also, the low inventory levels at key pricing hubs in Europe and continued stockpiling by Chinese refiners are also lending resilience to prices. Tightness in refined product markets, especially diesel, has further underpinned this.

Geopolitical developments are also injecting a slight risk premium. Over the weekend, Russia launched its most intense air assault on Kyiv since the war began, damaging central government infrastructure. This escalation comes as the EU weighs fresh sanctions on Russian oil trade and financial institutions. Several European leaders are expected in Washington this week to coordinate on Ukraine strategy – and the prospect of tighter restrictions on Russian crude could re-emerge as a price stabilizer.

In Asia, China’s crude oil imports rose to 49.5 million tons in August, up 0.8% YoY. The rise coincides with increased Chinese interest in Russian Urals, offered at a discount during falling Indian demand. Chinese refiners appear to be capitalizing on this arbitrage while avoiding direct exposure to U.S. trade penalties.

Going forward, our attention turns to the data calendar. The EIA’s STEO is due today (Tuesday), followed by the IEA and OPEC monthly oil market reports on Thursday. With a pending supply surplus projected during the fourth quarter and into 2026, markets will dissect these updates for any changes in demand assumptions and non-OPEC supply growth. Stay tuned!

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